Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. Big developments out of [00:02] Yemen over the last couple days. I'm [00:04] going to walk you through all of it. And [00:06] there's a story underneath the headlines [00:08] that I think that people are missing. [00:11] And it goes back to something I've been [00:12] talking about on this channel for a [00:13] while, which is the relationship between [00:15] Saudi Arabia and the UAE. And that is, I [00:20] believe, right in the middle of this. [00:21] And I'll explain as we go towards the [00:24] end of the video. But first, let's take [00:25] a look at what's actually happening on [00:26] the ground. And as confusing as it is, [00:29] if you're just watching the headlines, I [00:30] am going to make sense of it. Okay, so [00:33] let's get right to it. We will start [00:35] with a a piece from the Guardian. And [00:36] now, let me also warn you that in this [00:39] in this video, I'm going to be jumping [00:41] back and forth between a few different [00:42] articles that are all covering the same [00:44] stories, but they're saying different [00:45] things that are interrelated. So, I'm [00:47] going to be using all the various pieces [00:49] to try to read between the lines and [00:51] figure out what's going on. But here we [00:52] go. The headline reads, "Air campaign [00:54] against Houthis underway in Yemen, says [00:56] Saudiled coalition. [01:00] Leaders of a Saudiled coalition in Yemen [01:03] claimed a claimed a broad air campaign [01:06] involving a 100 jet aircraft was [01:08] underway on Monday, yesterday, against [01:10] the Iranbacked Houthi rebels along the [01:13] Red Sea coastline and farther north in [01:15] the capital, Sana." The Saudi coalition [01:18] spokesperson, Major General Turkey [01:20] Almaliki, said the hundred fighter jets [01:22] participating in Operation Dawn of Yemen [01:24] were providing support to forces of [01:26] Yemen's internationally recognized [01:30] government. Great. [01:33] So 100 fighter jets, that's not a few [01:36] air strikes, it's a full air campaign. [01:38] They're calling it Dawn of Yemen or [01:39] Yemen Dawn. It was announced on Sunday [01:42] by Rashad Almi, who heads Yemen's [01:44] internationally recognized government. [01:46] He's actually in exile because the [01:48] Houthis control the capital city. And [01:51] the stated goal of this new operation is [01:54] to retake the whole country from the [01:56] Houthis including Sana. That's a lofty [01:57] goal. Now remember where we were. I've [02:00] been covering this last month. The [02:02] Houthis made a lightning advance down [02:04] the Red Sea coast. They took Mocha and [02:07] Dubab and they got all the way down to [02:08] Babal Mandev. Let me show that to you on [02:10] the map. [02:12] Here is the Here's the map. So you see [02:15] on the map um this is let's zoom in here [02:19] on the bottom here's Mocha that's a [02:21] major port city and here's Dubab and we [02:24] saw what happened last month was that [02:26] while the while the government forces [02:30] were claiming they were making advances [02:32] on Tis and even up towards Sana and that [02:34] they were pushing the Houthis back and I [02:36] even made a video where I was like oh [02:37] wow look at this they're advancing [02:38] they're pushing the Houthis back re [02:40] meanwhile the Houthis were preparing an [02:42] offensive down the coast and they [02:44] basically took took the whole coast all [02:45] the way down to the bottom including the [02:47] islands. Okay, that's what happened last [02:49] month. [02:51] So, [02:53] so they basically ever since then have [02:55] controlled the the Baba Mandeb strait [02:58] blockading Saudi ships etc etc. Now, uh [03:01] let's let's go back to this Guardian [03:04] piece. He said the coalition, meaning [03:06] the Saudi spokesperson, said that the [03:08] coalition had secured air protection of [03:11] the strategic Baband Strait and [03:14] destroyed hundreds of Houthi targets. [03:15] Very strange language there. You notice [03:16] they put it in air quotes because that [03:18] is strange language. If you're going to [03:20] say you conquered a place, just say you [03:21] conquered it. Securing air protection [03:24] kind of means that you haven't really [03:25] conquered it, but you maybe have some [03:27] sort of air superiority up there. He [03:29] claimed hundreds of Houthi fighters had [03:31] been besieged in the Dubab district. [03:33] Dubab, as I just showed you, was just [03:35] south of Mocha along the coast, [03:38] including the airport, close to the Baba [03:40] Mandab Strait with some Houthi uh [03:42] fighters fleeing across the Red Sea in [03:46] boats. Houthis fleeing in boats across [03:48] the Red Sea. That's the Saudi claim. [03:50] Now, let's be careful because I want to [03:52] show you how the BBC reported the exact [03:55] same incident from yesterday. Okay? And [03:58] this is reported 10 hour. This is [03:59] reported just earlier today. Yemeni [04:01] military says it has secured the Red Sea [04:04] waterway. Yemen progovernment forces [04:06] backed by Saudi Arabia say they have [04:08] secured the Babandib Strait at the [04:10] southern end of the Red Sea at the start [04:11] of a major offensive against the [04:13] Iranbacked Houthi movement. The Yemeni [04:15] military also said in a statement that [04:17] its forces had captured the Red Sea city [04:18] of Mocha, captured the Red Sea city of [04:20] Mocha [04:22] on Monday afternoon with the help of [04:23] Saudi air strikes. But in conflicting [04:25] reports, unnamed Yemeni government and [04:27] military sources later told news [04:29] agencies Reuters and AFB that the forces [04:32] had only reached the city's outskirts. [04:35] The Houthis denied losing Babal Mandeb [04:37] and and Mocha and said they had struck [04:40] Riad's airport and other locations in [04:42] Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the air [04:46] strikes. Oh, see what's going on here? [04:49] The military statement says that they [04:50] took Mocha back from the Houthis, but [04:53] then the unnamed government and military [04:54] sources tells Reuters and the AFB that [04:57] they only got to the outskirts. [04:59] Look at what they're actually willing to [05:01] confirm. [05:04] Government [05:06] military sources who spoke to AFP would [05:08] not confirm the capture of the city, but [05:12] said, "Our forces took control of the [05:14] Dubab military airfield and cut the road [05:18] linking the Dubab district to the Baba [05:21] Mandab area." In other words, now what [05:23] they're saying is, look, listen, this is [05:24] what we actually took. Dubab is down [05:27] here. The Babel Mandab area is all the [05:29] way down to the bottom. In other words, [05:30] what they're saying is we didn't [05:31] actually take Mocha, but we took Dubab [05:35] and then we cut the road that links it [05:37] to the southern area, which could [05:39] essentially isolate the Houthi fighters [05:41] who are down here controlling Baba [05:43] Mandeb and then you could you could [05:45] easily defeat them and take Baba Manddev [05:46] back. That's what they're claiming. [05:48] Okay, the Houthis deny all of this. And [05:52] to their credit, the Guardian flags the [05:54] same problem. Let's take a look. So, [05:58] here's the Guardian pointing out that [06:00] it's a little bit sketchy. Hold on, let [06:03] me find this quote here. Uh, [06:07] previous Saudi statements about [06:09] territorial gains in recent weeks have [06:11] often proven partial, but footage [06:14] appeared to back up the Saudi claims of [06:16] Houthis retreating by the seashore. So, [06:18] there's this footage that makes it look [06:19] like the Houthis are retreating, but the [06:21] Guardian is being very honest. As I said [06:23] to you last month, like was a few weeks [06:27] ago, we already saw where some claims of [06:28] advances against the Houthis didn't [06:30] really turn out to didn't really turn [06:32] out to be uh correct. Right? In the [06:35] first few days of that Houthi offensive, [06:37] government forces pushed the Houthis off [06:39] a bunch of hilltops west of the city of [06:42] Tis, [06:44] right? Around a place called um [06:47] Jabal, what was it called here? Here's [06:49] here's the city of Tes. Very important [06:51] city. And there was this whole thing we [06:54] were talking about a few weeks ago that [06:55] the government forces had pushed the [06:57] Houthis off of the hilltops around here [07:00] uh in these in the uh in these critical [07:02] towns here. And everyone said the [07:03] government was pushing the Houthis back [07:05] and they were holding ground. And a few [07:07] days later the Houthis threw everything [07:08] down the coast. The government lines [07:10] collapsed. Mocha fell on September 10th [07:12] almost without a fight. And the early [07:15] gains in one place told you nothing [07:17] about where the where the Houthis were [07:19] gaining ground elsewhere. So keep that [07:21] in mind because look at what's happening [07:23] this week. It's almost a mirror image. [07:24] The government is now pushing on the [07:26] coast and inland around Taes. It's the [07:29] it's the Houthis who are pushing. Back [07:32] to the BBC. This is what happened right [07:34] before the offensive was launched. Let's [07:37] go back to the BBC. [07:41] Uh where is it? [07:47] I got to find the I got to find my spot. [07:48] Hold on a second here. [07:51] It came after the Houthis. Let's find [07:52] it. [07:54] It came after the Houthis. Here it is. [07:56] It came after the Houthis reportedly cut [07:58] a mountain road near the southwestern [08:01] city of Tesiz, effectively leaving [08:03] government forces and residents there [08:07] surrounded. [08:09] So think about what that means. I'm [08:11] going to show you Tea on the map again. [08:13] Here's Tes on the map. So Tiz is here. [08:17] very important city, very important [08:18] strategic city. It's right in the middle [08:20] of the country and it's been partially [08:22] besieged by the Houthis since 2015. It's [08:25] like more than 10 years and its lifeline [08:28] is the road that goes south from this [08:31] city south to Aden. Here's Aden, the [08:35] port of Aden. So there's a road that [08:36] goes from Taiz to Aden. [08:39] And [08:41] that's exactly where the what the [08:42] Houthis are going after right now. And [08:45] this is the government saying it. This [08:46] is not Houthi propaganda. So the [08:48] government says it's fighting back. So [08:50] look at this one. Now we're going to go [08:52] to a third news news source now, which [08:54] is Middle East Monitor. [08:57] And [08:59] look what it says here. [09:02] The Yemen army said Tuesday that a 100 [09:06] Houthi fighters were killed and five [09:08] drones were downed in the southwestern [09:09] province of Tesiz during ongoing [09:11] military operations in the country. The [09:14] army's ta military access said in a [09:16] statement that government forces carried [09:17] out attacks on several fronts as part of [09:20] dawn of Yemen. It said five operations [09:23] were conducted [09:24] Monday on the alarbain front north of [09:27] Taiis city alrud to the south alanin and [09:31] jabalabashi to the west as well as al- [09:33] birin on the outskirts of the al-qaeda [09:35] front. According to the army, around 100 [09:37] Houthi fighters were killed, 150 [09:39] wounded, five drones shot down, six [09:41] military vehicles, and a tank destroyed [09:43] or damaged. The army also said its [09:45] forces had retaken Jabal al-Manzara, Al [09:47] Sharif, and Dibban in southern Tais from [09:50] the Houthi. So basically, they're [09:51] they're making all kinds of gains in and [09:53] around Tais. [09:57] Now, [09:59] let's see what the Houthis say about [10:00] this. Houthi military spokesman Yakyas [10:04] Sari meanwhile disputed government [10:05] accounts of battlefield advances and [10:07] said the group maintained control of its [10:09] positions. He also claimed the Houthi [10:11] forces had carried out dozens of strikes [10:13] against what he described as Saudi [10:14] forces in the provinces of Ala and Marib [10:18] as well as Rasal Ara and al-Sukia. Now [10:20] Alja and Marib that's in Yemen. So he's [10:23] claiming the the Houthis are claiming [10:25] that their Saudi forces in in Yemen. Sar [10:28] claimed that more than 200 opposing [10:30] fighters were killed or wounded in the [10:32] attacks and Saudi Arabia was not uh was [10:35] not available for comment. Let's say [10:38] okay. So who's winning? Honestly, right [10:41] now nobody can tell you. The coast is [10:43] contested. Taiz is contested from both [10:45] directions. Anybody telling you this war [10:48] is being decided in the next 48 hours is [10:50] selling you something. It's going to go [10:51] on for a while. What the Houthis do have [10:54] is the ability to make Saudi Arabia pay. [10:58] They say they hit Riad's airport, Abha [11:01] airport, and Aramco facilities in Riyad [11:04] and Curace. Let me show that to you on a [11:06] map so you understand what they're [11:08] doing. Okay, Abha airport. The Houthis [11:12] say they hit Abha airport. Abha [11:13] airport's right here. And right next to [11:15] it is a is a big uh is a big air force [11:18] base. Okay, that's where the air strikes [11:20] are probably coming from like the F-16s. [11:23] That's Aba. But they're also hitting [11:25] Riad. Riad is all the way over here [11:29] and the Kurase uh uh oil field is out [11:33] near here. Here's Kurase. It's out near [11:36] Riyad. It's in this part of the country. [11:38] So the Houthis are fire are going after [11:41] the oil fields in the capital city of [11:44] Saudi Arabia. [11:47] Okay, that's what they're up to. [11:50] Now let's go back to the BBC for a [11:52] second. [11:56] Uh, I got to show you this piece. [11:57] According to BBC Verify, satellite [12:00] imagery from Saturday shows thick dark [12:02] smoke coming from the site of the strike [12:04] at the Aramco Riad refinery in the [12:06] city's southeast. A similar plume of [12:08] smoke can be seen rising from the Kuret [12:10] central processing facility as well as [12:13] from a potential strike point in [12:14] satellite imagery from Sunday. And look [12:18] at how the Guardian describes the Houthi [12:20] message. Okay, the Houthi response. [12:24] Uh, let me find this. [12:27] And [12:29] on Monday, Houthi sources denied reports [12:31] of a retreat and pointed to the [12:33] explosions at the Saudi Aramco plant in [12:35] Riyad as a sign of the damage the group [12:38] could still inflict on exposed Saudi oil [12:40] installations and by extension the world [12:42] economy. [12:45] Okay, so [12:48] that's the Iranian playbook. What do you [12:50] do? you go after the oil because hurting [12:52] the oil hurts the hurts the world's [12:55] economy. It's not about winning [12:57] militarily. It's about hurting them [13:00] economically and giving them incentive [13:02] to deescalate. [13:03] Um it it hurts the Americans, right? [13:06] That's what they're trying to do. [13:07] They're So here's another piece of this [13:10] that's new [13:12] and this is also part, you know, this is [13:14] in the BBC story and it's about Turkey [13:17] and Pakistan. Let's find it. Hold on. [13:22] Oh, no. I'm not in the BBC story. Here [13:24] we go. [13:26] Uh, let's find the Turkey Pakistan part [13:29] because now we we got to get to uh this [13:30] topic. This is an important one. Turkey [13:33] and Pakistan allies of Saudi Arabia [13:35] meanwhile held an emergency meeting in [13:37] Riyad and agreed to rapidly deploy [13:40] military forces to Saudi Arabia in an [13:43] invocation of the Mecca Joint Defense [13:45] Agreement according to a statement [13:46] shared by Pakistan's Foreign Ministry. [13:48] Hello, they finally woke up. So now [13:50] Turkey and Pakistan are saying that [13:51] they're going to deploy military forces. [13:53] You see what happens when Saudi Arabia [13:55] goes to the Israelis and there's news of [13:57] all sorts of other people helping them [13:58] out and the UAE getting involved. [14:00] Suddenly Pakistan and Turkey go, you [14:02] know, we could end up getting cut out of [14:04] the deal here and we we're kind of [14:06] looking like wimps and it's kind of [14:09] undermining our whole alliance and kind [14:11] of strengthening the Israelis in the UAE [14:13] who we don't like. So, and finally, [14:15] they're waking up and saying that [14:16] they're going to get involved and help [14:17] out, right? That's what we see here, [14:21] right? This is the first time we're [14:22] seeing that the Mecca Pact is actually [14:23] being invoked. So, let's keep an eye on [14:25] that one, okay? Because we've talked [14:26] about that a lot. And by the way, you [14:28] should be watching my son's channel, my [14:30] son, Mayor Willicki, Mir, and last name [14:33] Wicki. Look it up. He has a fantastic [14:35] video about the Houthis. In fact, I'm [14:37] going to put it as the pinned comment in [14:39] this video. It's an old It's a video he [14:40] made a few weeks ago, but he's putting [14:42] out incredible analysis of what's going [14:44] on in the Middle East. I think he's he's [14:46] get he might be better than I am. I [14:47] mean, he's great. Uh, and he's really [14:49] doing these very, very tightly organized [14:53] videos going through where we are in the [14:56] war after three years. Really worth [14:59] watching. And he's he just started the [15:00] channel. Go give him a subscribe, give [15:02] him a like, watch some of his videos. [15:03] You'll love them. Anyway, back to Yemen. [15:06] And here's the part I really want to [15:08] talk about. So, let's go back to the [15:10] Guardian [15:12] and let's find this here. [15:15] I'm sorry I'm jumping around. Here we [15:16] are. Southern Yemeni forces [15:19] known as the Giants Brigades who are [15:22] allied with the government earlier on [15:25] Monday launched a ground offensive [15:26] against the rebels on the eastern flank [15:29] of the coastal areas that the Houthis [15:32] seized in their latest advances. By [15:33] rebels, they mean the Houthis in their [15:35] latest advances. So you have this group, [15:37] a southern Yemen group called the Giants [15:40] Brigades. They're allied with the [15:43] government. They're attacking the [15:44] Houthis. The government forces also [15:46] claimed to have cut the road between [15:48] Mocha and Dubab. And that the Houthi [15:50] forces were deserting the recently [15:52] captured city of Mocha as residents [15:55] stayed behind closed doors. That's what [15:56] they're claiming. Okay? And that's a [15:58] group called the Giants Brigade. So who [16:00] were the Giants Brigades? This is [16:01] important. [16:03] Hope you're still with me. This this is [16:05] where things get really important and [16:06] interesting. [16:08] The Giants Brigades are a southern Yemen [16:11] force. Okay? They were built, trained, [16:14] and armed by the UAE. They were part of [16:17] the Southern Transitional Council, the [16:20] STC, which is the movement, the moderate [16:23] movement. They're somewhat secular [16:26] that wants to bring back an independent [16:28] South Yemen. Remember, until 1990, there [16:30] were two Yemens, North and South Yemen. [16:32] And there's this separatist secular [16:34] group pro-western backed by UAE that was [16:38] fighting the Houthis and wants to bring [16:40] and wanted to bring and wanted to bring [16:42] back that independence. [16:45] Okay, I made videos about this back in [16:47] January. Let me remind you what happened [16:49] in December. Last December, the STC [16:52] launched a huge offensive against the [16:54] Houthis and they took most of the south [16:58] but also against other forces against [17:00] jihadist forces. Saudi Arabia saw the [17:03] STC as a threat because they don't they [17:05] didn't like that the Emiratis had such a [17:08] foothold in Yemen in their backyard. So [17:10] the Saudis bombed Emirati like UAE [17:14] weapons shipments coming into southern [17:16] Yemen to help the STC. The Saudibacked [17:19] forces, [17:21] attacked the ST like they [17:22] counterattacked the STC and they took [17:25] back a whole swath of the south. They [17:27] took back the Gulf of the the port of [17:29] Aden. The STC then announced that it was [17:33] dissolving itself. [17:35] Its leader fled the country and the UAE [17:38] pulled out of Yemen. So basically the [17:39] Saudis got the UAE to leave Yemen. And [17:42] that was a big Saudi Aradi blowup. [17:44] Shortly after that, you have the [17:46] Emiratis announcing that they're pulling [17:47] out of out of uh OPEC, right? And that [17:50] was the it was a major crisis between [17:51] the Saudis and the Amiradis. and for a [17:54] long and then until la until until last [17:56] week they weren't even talking to each [17:58] other except in multilateral meetings [18:00] with other countries there. They weren't [18:01] had they had no bilateral meetings. [18:04] We'll get back to that in a moment. So [18:05] who are these people? The giants. They [18:08] switched sides right then in early [18:10] January after the STC dissolved. The [18:13] giants who were part of the STC, this [18:15] militia basically said, "Okay, we'll [18:18] play ball with the government with the [18:21] Saudibbacked government." And now they [18:23] sit on the presidential council. They're [18:25] part of it now. So the and they're now [18:28] leading the charge [18:30] against the Houthis [18:33] in this critical spot near Mocha, Dubab [18:37] along the Babamandab Strait. They're the [18:39] ones leading that offensive [18:41] and [18:43] and the and the Saudi jets are now [18:45] giving air cover to them and they had [18:48] been part of the Emirati backed force. [18:50] Now look at what the Guardian speculates [18:52] here. Very interesting speculation. [18:56] Look what they write. It appears a [18:58] political agreement reached between the [19:00] two main external Arab actors in Yemen, [19:03] Saudi Arabia and the UAE permitted the [19:06] UAE backed southern giants to coordinate [19:09] with sa with the Saudi air force in the [19:12] attack toward the coast. It is being [19:15] stressed by the Giants brigades that no [19:17] other ground forces supporting the [19:19] Saudibbacked government are involved in [19:21] the offensive. The brigades who are [19:23] linked with the STC, a political group [19:25] outlawed in Yemen for for trying to set [19:27] up a secessionist state, are certain to [19:30] have sought political commitments about [19:33] the future status of Yemen in order to [19:36] have thrown their military weight behind [19:39] it. Now, notice what the giants are [19:42] making sure everyone hears. They're [19:44] saying no other ground forces are [19:46] fighting this offensive, only us. Is [19:49] that even true? I don't know. The BBC [19:50] lists the National Shield Forces, the [19:52] Tahama resistance alongside them. Why [19:55] would the giants insist that they're [19:56] fighting alone? Because if the coast [19:59] gets taken back from the Houthis, and [20:01] they want the whole world to say that [20:03] they're the ones who did it. They want [20:05] to be able to take credit and say it's [20:06] theirs. They're banking that credit [20:08] because they want to cash it in. As this [20:11] piece goes on, it is not clear how the [20:14] Saudis propose to address the age-old [20:16] southern question. Concession meaning [20:18] that the s that in the south they want [20:20] independence. Concessions to the [20:22] southern transitional council about the [20:24] future governance of the south are [20:26] certain to have been demanded even if [20:29] the UAE itself does not return to Yemen. [20:32] But the cooperation between the Saudi [20:34] Air Force and the Giants brigades is a [20:36] remarkable turnaround since as recently [20:39] as January, the Saudi Air Force was [20:41] bombing UAE shipments of arms arriving [20:44] in South Yemen for these STC backed [20:47] forces. You get it? So the Saudis were [20:49] were bombing shipments going to these [20:52] very same militias that they're now [20:54] giving air cover for these UAE backed [20:58] militias. And they're speculating in [21:00] this piece that there must have been a [21:02] deal reached. So what were they promised [21:05] and where was the deal made? So I'll [21:06] tell you now what I think. Remember last [21:09] week on September 29th, the UAE's vice [21:12] president, Mansour bin Zed, the brother [21:15] of the president who's usually known as [21:18] MBZ. [21:19] Mansur bin Zed, the vice president, [21:21] flies to Riad. And I made a video about [21:23] it. talked about the fact that this is [21:25] the first bilateral meeting at a high [21:26] level between Saudi Arabia and UAE in a [21:29] long time and he was met at the airport [21:31] by Khalid bin Salman the Saudi defense [21:33] minister who holds the Yemen file and [21:36] then they sat down and they sat down [21:38] with NBS with the head of the Saudi [21:40] Saudi Arabia the crown prince and it was [21:43] a very public very warm meeting between [21:44] the two countries that were at each [21:46] other's throats over Yemen less than a [21:48] year ago [21:50] right we we saw that story here's here's [21:53] the headline line from then this is I [21:54] used this article at the time Saudi [21:56] Arabia turns to UAE [21:59] right [22:01] okay [22:03] so what happened here what happened in [22:06] this meeting [22:11] the UAE wanted a public signal from [22:13] Saudi Arabia that had put its spat [22:15] behind it along with concessions to Abu [22:17] Dhabi's allies on the ground in Yemen [22:20] they wanted in the meeting it says here [22:22] that in that meeting, the UAE wanted [22:24] concessions from Saudi Arabia to its [22:27] allies on the ground. In other words, in [22:29] that meeting last week, the UAE guy [22:31] looked at the Saudis and said, "You want [22:33] our help against the Houthis? You better [22:36] start being nicer to our boys on the [22:38] ground. [22:41] You get it? [22:43] Let's keep going. [22:47] There's another piece here I want to [22:48] show you. The UAE's Yemen allies include [22:52] the STC Security Belt Forces, the Giants [22:55] Brigade, and the National Resistance [22:57] Forces. [23:00] Okay, [23:02] there it is. The Giants Brigade. And [23:05] here's how a former State Department [23:06] analyst describes the Emirati pitch. [23:10] Okay, it's in here. Also, let me pull it [23:12] back up. [23:14] Yemen is going downhill fast, and [23:16] everyone knows it. The Emiratis know the [23:18] Saudis are in a worrisome position and [23:20] they don't want to see the Saudis flat [23:22] out fail. So, they're coming in on a [23:23] white horse saying, "We can help you if [23:26] you're nice to us. If you're nice to our [23:28] boys." That's the deal. And look what [23:30] happened right after the meeting. [23:33] Following Mansour's visit, the UAE [23:36] dispatched two Boeing planes with [23:38] officials to Riad in order to coordinate [23:41] over Yemen. Two western officials [23:43] familiar with the matter told Middle [23:45] East I. [23:49] But notice there's no details giving [23:52] right. The meeting was the meeting was [23:54] all about Yemen. Where does it [23:55] [clears throat] say that? [23:58] Got to find that piece. The meeting was [23:59] all about Yemen. Christristen Ulrien, a [24:02] Gulf expert and fellow Baker Institute, [24:03] told Middle East, "The Saudis are [24:05] preparing to make a significant move [24:07] against the Houthis and want to make [24:08] sure that anti- Houthi force, the [24:10] anti-houthi coalition is not as [24:12] fragmented as it has been." They wanted, [24:14] in other words, the Saudis invited the [24:16] Emiratis to Saudi Arabia to discuss [24:19] getting their old militias that the [24:20] Saudis were pushing out to get them back [24:23] on board to fight against the Houthis. [24:25] But of course, you got to in order to [24:26] get their help, you got to give [24:28] something, right? Because six days [24:29] later, this operation Yemen dawn kicks [24:32] off and the UAE's old Yemeni army is [24:34] back is dusted off out of the closet and [24:37] is now out in front with Saudi jets [24:39] protecting it as as attacking the [24:41] Houthis. So, I'll be honest with you, I [24:43] can't show you a signed agreement. No [24:44] one's published the terms, but if you [24:46] have the Emirati demands, the summit, [24:49] the coordination flights, the giants now [24:51] on the move, I think that's what they [24:53] agreed on in the room. I think it's kind [24:55] of obvious. And the Saudis needed it [24:57] badly. You see, Saudi Arabia was [25:00] rebuffed by the United States when they [25:02] wanted American help. Right? Saudi [25:04] Arabia was rebuffed by the US when it [25:06] sought military assistance against the [25:07] Houthis earlier this month. And its [25:09] defense packed with Turkey and Pakistan [25:12] has not kicked in over the escalation, [25:14] meaning they weren't getting any help [25:15] from anyone else. So here the Saudis, [25:17] this is the plot. The Saudis are they [25:19] ask America for help. Nope. They ask, [25:21] you know, Turkey and Pakistan, run and [25:23] hide, and they're like, "What do we do?" [25:24] So they call the UAE over and say, [25:26] "Listen, you still got your boys there [25:27] that we were attacking. Sorry about [25:28] that, but we kind of need their help [25:30] now." And UAE is like, "Well, if you're [25:31] going to help them, you got to be nice [25:32] to them. You got to promise them [25:33] something." So MBS swallows his pride, [25:36] goes to the Emiratis, [25:39] and you know, look, I've been saying [25:40] this for a long time on this channel. [25:42] The UEE is not just another Gulf state. [25:44] It's a different animal from Saudi [25:45] Arabia. When it came to actually [25:47] fighting the Houthis, the Emiratis and [25:49] the forces that they built were the most [25:51] effective part of the whole coalition. [25:53] So when the Saudis now get in trouble [25:54] with the Houthis, they go running back [25:57] to the Emiratis who come back on their [25:59] own terms. Now there's also an Israel [26:02] angle here. Okay. Um let's see that it's [26:06] in this piece. Hold on, let me find a [26:09] let me find the exact quote about uh [26:12] about how this affects Israel because [26:13] very very interesting. [26:17] Saudi Arabia's coordination with the UAE [26:20] could also lead to more cooperation with [26:22] Israel. Remember that Netanyahu was in [26:25] the was in the UAE last week meeting [26:27] with a whole bunch of these leaders [26:29] including Saudi Arabia which they then [26:30] denied, [26:32] right? Israel, which deployed an Iron [26:34] Dome battery in the UAE during the [26:36] height of the fighting with Iran. [26:38] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin [26:40] Netanyahu visited the UAE on Sunday, [26:43] this past Sunday. Now, I'm not saying [26:45] Israel's involved in this Yemen [26:46] situation right now, but I'm saying that [26:49] the UAE, Israel's closest partner in the [26:51] Arab world, just made itself [26:53] indispensable to the Saudis in the fight [26:55] against the Houthis. And that tells you [26:57] something about where the alliance [26:59] structure in the whole region is [27:00] heading. But here's the catch, and it's [27:02] why the story doesn't end when the [27:04] shooting stops. Because what does the [27:06] UAE actually want? What did they ask for [27:10] in that meeting in exchange for the help [27:12] of their proxies like the giants, the [27:15] southern giants? What did they actually [27:19] ask for? [27:22] One diplomat in the region told Middle [27:24] East eye that the UAE has asked Saudi [27:26] Arabia to open space for the STC after [27:31] it was disbanded in January. The UAE [27:33] also wants Saudi Arabia to ban Isla, [27:36] which is the Sunni Islamist Party. It's [27:38] the Muslim Brotherhood party in Yemen, [27:40] which is part of Yemen's international [27:42] government because the Saudis have been [27:43] backing them. The UAE has been lobbying [27:45] the US to label that party a terrorist [27:48] organization. The Emirates are not going [27:50] to get what they want from the Saudis, a [27:51] disavowel of Isla, an acceptance of the [27:53] STC, this expert told Middle East eye. [27:56] But the Saudis might tell the Yemen [27:58] government to play nice with the STC in [28:00] a cabinet reshuffle. So, uh, whatever. [28:03] Look, again, Isla is the Muslim [28:05] Brotherhood party. They're in the Yemen [28:07] government [28:09] and the Amiradis want them out. So the [28:12] southern fighters are are now fighting [28:15] on the Red Sea coast based on a promise [28:19] made in the room by the Saudis to the to [28:21] the Emiratis. If we read that's for sure [28:24] what happened, right? The Amiradis go [28:25] out there Saudi Arabia, they have the [28:27] meeting, they agree, and then a couple [28:29] days later, you have the Giants Brigade, [28:32] which is a UAE backed militia, fighting [28:35] and and making it very clear that [28:37] they're the ones leading the fight and [28:39] they're the only ones fighting so that [28:41] when they take some territory, they can [28:42] then say, you see, we you know, we did [28:44] our part, now pay up. [28:47] And you know, let's go back to the [28:49] Guardian to the Saudi bombing triggered [28:52] a UAE pull out from Yemen in January. [28:54] The Sa the sudden dissolution of the STC [28:57] and the exile of its leader. At the [28:59] weekend, his supporters vowed to hold [29:02] demonstrations later this month in [29:04] support of the return to a separate [29:06] southern state. So now they're all [29:08] getting active. All the STC guys are now [29:11] coming out of the woodwork rallying, [29:14] bringing up the whole issue of secession [29:16] and separation of of independence of [29:18] South Yemen. [29:21] Right? So, and they've called for a [29:23] million man march in Aden on October [29:25] 14th, right? About a little more than a [29:28] week ago, a week from now. And because [29:31] that's the anniversary of the 1963 [29:33] uprising against the British in South [29:34] Yemen. Anyway, so it's like a holiday in [29:37] the south of Yemen. So, picture it. The [29:38] giants are now fighting on the coast to [29:41] help the Saudis get the Houthis out of [29:43] the Babamandab Strait. They're backed by [29:46] the UAE. [29:48] And meanwhile, all of the southern [29:50] independence groups are now going to [29:52] have rallies next week calling for their [29:54] independence. [29:56] Look, if this offensive works and the [29:58] Houthis get pushed back from Babel [29:59] Mandev, that's wonderful. It's good for [30:01] the world. It's good for shipping. It's [30:02] good for oil markets. Great. It's good [30:04] for It's good for every anyone who wants [30:06] to see Iranian proxies get beat. But the [30:09] southern Yemen question is still going [30:11] to be a big question and there's going [30:14] to be, you know, how does that get [30:17] sorted out? Do the Saudis actually make [30:19] good on their promise? Do does it lead [30:20] to more civil war? Because the the [30:24] giants, this UAE backed militias, [30:26] they're going to want to get paid for [30:27] what they did. So that's the real story [30:29] about Yemen this week. Um, it's a [30:32] coalition of people who were enemies a [30:34] few months ago and now they they've [30:36] stitched together this coalition to [30:38] fight the Houthis and if they're strong [30:41] enough to win this round, what does that [30:43] mean going forward? Are they are they [30:45] going to be at their throats again? [30:46] That's what I wanted to share with you. [30:48] Please like, share, subscribe, all that [30:50] great stuff. I hope this made some [30:51] sense. I hope we made sense of it. But [30:53] that's what I think is going on in [30:54] Yemen. So, it's very interesting. Very [30:56] interesting the way this this all works [30:58] out. You got to believe that somehow the [30:59] Israelis were involved in this [31:00] negotiation. This is what's been [31:02] happening in these meetings and uh we'll [31:06] see what happens. I'll keep bringing you [31:08] updates as we go. Thanks for watching. [31:10] God bless.
