Transcript [00:21] A very good evening from Jerusalem, uh, [00:24] Israel's capital. Uh, this is Election [00:28] Night Live. Uh and amid record turnout [00:31] today in Israel's elections uh when [00:33] polls close very very shortly uh tonight [00:37] Israel is going to start getting some [00:39] answers. Uh it's the first election [00:42] since October 7th and it's also the [00:45] first Knesset to run to term since 1988. [00:49] I'm Ezra Taylor [00:50] >> and I'm Sam Halpern. There's a lot of at [00:52] stake in this election. Over the last [00:54] four years, we've seen a lot of issues [00:56] rise into the spotlight. We've seen the [00:58] government's proposed judicial reforms [00:59] back in 2022 and the resulting protests. [01:02] We've seen the October 7th attacks by [01:04] Hamas. Uh we've seen wars on multiple [01:06] fronts. We've seen rising cost of [01:08] living. We've seen IDF manpower [01:10] shortages. We've seen drama over the [01:12] ultraorththodox draft into the army and [01:14] much more. These and many other issues [01:17] are going to be on the next government's [01:19] uh slate to handle uh and and so much [01:21] more. [01:22] >> Absolutely. and and about what those [01:24] voters are caring about uh across across [01:27] today as they've been voting. 7 million [01:29] of them by the way and that's up uh over [01:32] 7 million rather and that's up by over [01:34] 500,000 [01:36] since 2022. Sam. [01:39] >> Yeah. So a lot of voters are coming and [01:41] casting their first ballots. Uh the poll [01:44] suggests that these uh younger voters [01:45] are leaning more right and religious. [01:48] Um, after 3 years of war, national [01:50] security is big on the minds of the [01:52] Israeli electorate here. Um, and [01:54] religious and orthod ultraorththodox [01:57] families tend to also have a bit few [01:58] more kids than uh secular families do. [02:01] Uh, so we're likely going to see how the [02:03] political and demographic shifts are [02:05] going to play out with this election as [02:06] the exit polls come in later. [02:08] >> Another demographic shift that's also [02:10] playing out uh and has been playing out [02:12] today has been the Arab Israeli turnout. [02:15] That's been higher than usual. [02:17] Traditionally, uh the Arab-Israelis tend [02:19] to vote lower than uh the rest in terms [02:22] of numbers, lower than the rest of the [02:24] population, and that is something that [02:26] Smatri and Netanyahu today have been [02:29] quite worried about in terms of what [02:31] they've been saying. Uh also voting [02:33] today are what's called the double [02:35] envelopes. You might hear that this [02:36] evening. Those are people uh like [02:38] soldiers or prisoners or patients in [02:41] hospitals uh who vote with what's called [02:43] a double envelope. They have one that [02:44] they put their ballot inside and then [02:45] another that then goes into the ballot [02:47] box. Also, diplomats who will be using [02:50] that as well uh who are abroad. Not the [02:53] only people uh abroad voting uh abroad, [02:56] but people who've flown in tonight [02:59] because most people cannot vote abroad. [03:01] Uh lots of Israelis have flown in for [03:03] this election saying uh across lots of [03:05] reporting that they felt like it was [03:07] their duty uh to come back to Israel to [03:09] vote in this election. [03:11] >> Yes. something like 70,000 Israelis have [03:14] have flown in. Um we've seen an very [03:17] energized electorate with this. We've [03:19] seen record uh turnout in in uh voters. [03:22] Uh but these Israel elections can be [03:24] very complicated. Uh if this is your [03:26] first time tuning into this process, [03:27] it's not your fault if you're feeling [03:29] lost or overwhelmed. That's why we have [03:30] a great program for you tonight. Uh [03:32] we're going to break it down for you. Uh [03:34] we have some great panelists coming up [03:35] in a little bit, but first we're going [03:36] to have some segments that explain this [03:38] election process. They'll break down how [03:40] the election cycle works. Uh what a [03:42] minority government is, how that might [03:44] be formed. Uh what are the key issues [03:45] that are on voters's minds? Who is Prime [03:47] Minister Benjamin Netanyahu? And so who [03:50] are some of the other major players uh [03:52] political players who are vying for [03:53] power? [03:54] >> Absolutely. Um so we're going to bring [03:57] you that in in just a moment, but just [03:59] before that, you still have about 20 [04:01] minutes left until you can vote. So if [04:02] you're near your polling station uh and [04:04] you're in Israel, it might be worth [04:06] going out uh to vote. Um and the exit [04:10] polls of course are coming up. Um they [04:12] are of course an indication uh of what's [04:16] going to happen and we won't have the [04:17] results for for maybe possibly a couple [04:20] of days if the maths doesn't line up. Uh [04:23] we're going to have all of that coming [04:24] up in the program. [04:26] >> Right. So that those exit polls are not [04:28] the final tally of votes. Uh we're going [04:31] to get into how those work and how those [04:32] are calculated a little bit later on. [04:34] But uh as you said about 20 minutes left [04:37] to vote. uh if you hurry, if you haven't [04:39] so voted, uh you can. If you're in [04:40] Israel and are eligible, you've likely [04:42] gotten a text to your phone uh recently. [04:45] >> And we'll also tell you that the party [04:46] leaders are obviously in the last few [04:48] minutes uh as as polls are so close to [04:50] closing h are likely to be and they are [04:53] uh calling people to go out and vote if [04:55] they haven't already. So in the next few [04:57] moments, we're going to bring you uh to [05:00] uh our first report of the evening. Sher [05:02] Perro is going to take us through [05:04] exactly how that wrangling works of [05:06] forming a coalition and also how it how [05:09] much time each leader who may be [05:11] potentially tapped [05:13] >> because it's so different from how you [05:15] folks in the US might have voted. But [05:17] that's up next. [05:20] >> These are the men who could become [05:21] Israel's next prime minister. But [05:24] Israelis don't vote directly for a prime [05:26] minister. So how does one of them even [05:29] get the job? Let's start with the knet. [05:32] Remember that word. It's Israel's [05:34] legislator, the equivalent of Congress [05:36] in the US or parliament in the UK or the [05:40] Bundustag in Germany. The Knesset has [05:43] 120 seats. Political parties compete for [05:45] them and Israelis vote for a party, not [05:48] an individual candidate for prime [05:49] minister. But not every party wins a [05:52] seat. To get into the Knesset, a party [05:54] needs at least 3.25% 25% of the valid [05:57] nationwide vote, which would equal about [06:00] four seats in the Knesset, fall below [06:02] the threshold and it gets nothing. Those [06:04] votes are effectively wasted. And here's [06:07] another key point. Israel has no voting [06:10] districts for the Knesset elections. The [06:12] whole country counts as one [06:14] constituency. So say a party wins 10% of [06:17] the national vote. Its support might be [06:19] concentrated in Jerusalem or spread from [06:22] Kiratona in the north all the way to [06:24] Alat in the south. Either way, 10% is [06:27] 10%. So, the votes are counted and the [06:30] 120 seats have been distributed. Now, [06:33] what? Well, no single party has ever won [06:37] an outright majority of 61 seats in a [06:39] Knesset election. So, to govern, the [06:42] parties actually have to work together. [06:44] And that is where our president comes [06:46] in. After consulting representatives of [06:49] the elected parties, President Iterog [06:51] will choose a member of Knesset to try [06:53] and form a government. Remember those [06:56] guys from the beginning? They're some of [06:58] the party leaders who might get the job. [07:00] Take Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of [07:02] Liood and our current prime minister. If [07:04] Likud ends up as the largest party, [07:07] President Hel may ask him to form a [07:09] government just as he did after the last [07:11] election. In that case, Netanyahu would [07:14] have four weeks to negotiate with other [07:16] parties and build a coalition. Normally, [07:19] he would aim for at least 61 seats, [07:21] enough for a majority in the Knesset. [07:23] But there is one more hurdle. Even after [07:26] reaching a coalition agreement, his [07:27] proposed government still has to win a [07:29] vote of confidence in the Knesset. If it [07:32] does, he becomes prime minister. But [07:34] what if he fails? Herzo can give him up [07:36] to two extra weeks. And if Netanyahu [07:38] still can't form a government, the [07:40] president would turn to somebody else [07:41] like Gaddy Eisenkot, head of the Ashar [07:43] party. He would then get four weeks too [07:46] with no extension. And if he fails, [07:48] Knesset members have one last chance to [07:50] nominate another candidate. And if [07:52] nobody can form a government, Israel [07:53] heads back to the polls. But here's the [07:56] twist. We've been talking about 61 [07:58] seats, but neither the coalition nor [08:00] opposition are currently projected to [08:02] get that many. Does this mean a [08:04] government just can't be formed? No. [08:06] Stay tuned. Up next, we'll talk about [08:08] how minority governments work and how [08:10] one can take power without a 61 seat [08:13] coalition. We just talked about how a [08:15] prime minister takes office and a [08:17] government is formed. But what if no one [08:19] is able to form a coalition with 61 [08:21] seats? Well, it turns out they might not [08:24] have to. What's known as a minority [08:26] government can still be formed? Here's [08:28] how. Under Israeli law, a new government [08:31] just needs more Knesset members voting [08:33] in favor than against it. MKs who [08:36] abstain aren't counted among the votes [08:38] cast. Let's say a proposed coalition has [08:40] just 55 seats in the Knesset. When its [08:43] government comes up for a vote, 55 [08:46] members vote in favor. 50 vote against [08:49] and the remaining 15 abstain. The [08:51] results would still be 55 to 50. The [08:53] government wins the vote and takes [08:55] office even though its coalition has [08:58] fewer than half the seats in the [08:59] Knesset. That is called a minority [09:02] government. But why would those 15 [09:04] members abstain instead of just voting [09:06] against it? Well, they might not want to [09:09] join the coalition, but they could still [09:11] prefer that government to the [09:13] alternative or additional elections. [09:15] This brings us to something called [09:17] external support. Essentially, a party [09:20] can agree to support a government [09:22] without actually joining it. That might [09:25] mean voting in favor of certain [09:27] legislation, helping pass a budget, or [09:30] simply agreeing not to vote against the [09:31] government at crucial moments. In [09:33] exchange, the party might receive [09:35] concessions on policies that matter to [09:37] its voters. An example of this would be [09:40] Rabin's government in the 1990s. After [09:42] the Shas party left his coalition, Rabin [09:45] was left with just 56 Knesset seats. But [09:48] his government survived thanks to [09:50] external support from various MKs [09:52] representing Arab majority parties. So, [09:55] why might we get a minority government [09:56] in these elections? Well, polling [09:58] leading up to the election has given us [10:00] some insight. The battle between the [10:03] Netanyahu block and the opposition block [10:05] has been tight with most polls showing [10:08] that neither camp can actually reach 61 [10:10] seats and much of that comes down to the [10:12] Arab majority parties. The joint list [10:15] and RAM have generally been counted [10:17] outside of both major blocks. Leaders in [10:20] both blocks, including most of the [10:22] opposition, have entirely ruled out [10:24] forming a government with these parties, [10:26] with one exception being Ya Golan, head [10:28] of the Democrats, who has expressed a [10:30] willingness to govern with Ram. Still, [10:32] the joint list has stated it may lend [10:34] the opposition its external support with [10:37] its leader, Ysef Jabarin, expressing a [10:40] willingness to support a government [10:41] replacing Netanyahu and even laying out [10:44] demands on some key issues. Whether [10:46] opposition leaders would actually meet [10:48] these demands still remains an open [10:50] question. In the end though, even if a [10:52] block fails to reach 61 seats, it could [10:55] still form a government if enough other [10:57] MK's vote in its favor or simply [11:00] abstain. So even without a majority [11:03] coalition, a new government and [11:05] potentially a new prime minister could [11:07] still be in the cards. [11:08] >> Israelis have just gone to the polls [11:10] with a wide range of issues weighing on [11:12] their minds. This is the first Knesset [11:14] election since the October 7th attacks. [11:16] Political discourse has changed and [11:18] issues like the IDF ready draft have [11:20] become more pressing. Others like [11:23] Palestinian statehood are less debated. [11:25] So what are key issues shaping this [11:27] election? First up, Israel's national [11:29] security and its future in the region. [11:31] Since October 7th, Israel has fought [11:33] Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah and Lebanon, [11:35] and Iran directly while striking Houthi [11:37] targets in Yemen. These campaigns have [11:39] dealt significant blows to Israel's [11:40] adversary, but Israelis remain divided [11:43] over their effectiveness and what comes [11:44] next. In Gaza, polling shows a divide [11:46] between economic and diplomatic pressure [11:48] on Hamas and renewed fighting. In [11:50] Lebanon, most Israelis view the [11:52] country's agreement favorably, though [11:53] majority oppose a complete IDF [11:55] withdrawal. Regarding Iran, most [11:56] Israelis view the US agreement with the [11:58] Islamic Republic unfavorably. A July [12:00] poll found Israelis divided over another [12:02] preemptive strike. But support for [12:04] military action was lower if it would [12:06] come at the cost of confrontation with [12:07] President Trump. Another issue is the [12:09] IDF draft of the ultraorththodox. For [12:11] decades, many ultraorththodox yeshiva [12:13] students received military service [12:15] deferments. But years of war have left [12:17] the IDF short of thousands of soldiers, [12:19] making the question of who serves more [12:21] pressing. An October survey found [12:23] roughly 3/4 of Jewish Israelis favor [12:25] legislation requiring ultraorththodox [12:27] men to enlist, though opinions differ on [12:29] how to achieve it. Then there's [12:31] accountability for October 7. Three [12:33] years after the massacre, questions [12:35] remain over the political, intelligence, [12:37] and military failures that allowed it. A [12:39] coalitionbacked bill passed its first [12:40] reading to establish an inquiry [12:42] commission with members selected through [12:43] the Knesset rather than by the president [12:45] of the Supreme Court. But many ask why [12:47] the government hasn't established a [12:49] state commission of inquiry. Polling [12:51] shows about 7 in 10 Jewish Israelis [12:53] favor one. Another major concern is the [12:55] cost of living. Years of war have [12:56] strained public finances. While Israelis [12:59] grapple with high housing and grocery [13:00] prices, a September survey found that [13:02] 38% of Jewish Israelis named the economy [13:05] and cost of living among their two [13:06] leading election issues. Among Arab [13:09] Israelis, the figure was 46%. And then [13:12] there's a relationship between religion [13:13] and state. From civil marriage to public [13:15] transportation on Shabbat, Israelis [13:17] debate how much influence religious [13:19] institutions should have over public [13:20] life. A May survey found 55% of Israelis [13:23] supported introducing civil marriage. [13:25] opinions differed sharply with stronger [13:27] opposition among ultraorththodox and [13:28] Arab-Israelis. This list of issues is [13:31] far from exhaustive and while the ones [13:33] we've talked about have taken on new [13:34] prominence or even emerged entirely in [13:36] recent years, one particular issue lies [13:38] at the very heart of this election. In [13:40] fact, it's been there in election after [13:42] election over the last 30 years, [13:44] Benjamin Netanyahu. Stay tuned. Up next, [13:48] we'll talk about the man who has [13:49] dominated the Israeli political scene [13:51] for three decades. Benjamin Netanyahu is [13:53] the longest serving prime minister in [13:55] Israel's history. Over the last three [13:57] decades, more than half of those years [13:58] have seen this one man in the country's [14:00] highest office. To his arnant [14:02] supporters, he's King BB, the man who [14:05] transformed Israel into the [14:06] technological and military powerhouse it [14:08] is today. To his critics, he's a symbol [14:10] of corruption whose governments have [14:12] pursued regressive policies, dragged [14:14] Israel into international isolation, and [14:16] avoided accountability for the failures [14:18] of October 7th. For better or worse, [14:20] he's become an iconic leader on the [14:22] global stage and in many ways the [14:24] international face of Israel. But who is [14:26] he? Natanya was born in Tel Aviv in 1949 [14:29] and he grew up primarily in Jerusalem. [14:31] Though he also spent several years in [14:33] the United States where he graduated [14:35] from high school. In 1967, he returned [14:37] to Israel to enlist in the IDF serving 5 [14:39] years in the elite Sier Matk special [14:42] forces unit. He participated in numerous [14:44] operations including the 1972 rescue of [14:46] hostages aboard a hijacked Sabina flight [14:49] during which he was wounded. He later [14:50] studied at MIT interrupting his studies [14:53] to fight in the 1973 Yonipur war. He [14:56] earned degrees in architecture and [14:57] management but abandoned plans for a [14:59] doctorate after his older brother [15:01] Yonatan was killed commanding the 1976 [15:04] antbe hostage rescue operation. The loss [15:06] helped propel Netanyao into public life. [15:08] He led the Jonathan Institute, [15:10] organizing international conferences [15:12] against terrorism before entering [15:14] Israel's diplomatic service. He served [15:16] in Washington and as an ambassador to [15:18] the United Nations before entering the [15:19] Knesset with Lihood in 1988. 5 years [15:22] later, he became party leader. In 1996, [15:25] he defeated Shimon Paris in Israel's [15:27] first direct election for prime [15:28] minister, becoming the country's [15:30] youngest prime minister at 46. He lost [15:32] to Hud Barack in 1999, but his political [15:35] career was far from over. After serving [15:37] as finance minister and pursuing free [15:39] market reforms, Netanyao returned as [15:41] prime minister in 2009. He remained in [15:44] power for 12 years, making Iran's [15:46] nuclear program a central foreign policy [15:48] focus and overseeing the Abraham [15:50] Accords, which normalized relations with [15:52] the United Arab Emirites and Bahin. In [15:54] 2021, a rival coalition ousted him, but [15:57] by the end of 2022, he was back leading [16:00] a right-wing and religious government. [16:02] And the nearly four years since have [16:03] been among the most turbulent of his [16:05] career. So, what have we seen during [16:06] this time? We've seen mass protests [16:08] against this government's judicial [16:10] overhaul. Supporters said the reforms [16:12] would reign in unelected judges. [16:14] Opponents warned they threatened Israeli [16:16] democracy. We've also seen the October [16:18] 7th Hamasled massacre when around 1,200 [16:22] people were killed and 251 taken [16:24] hostage. The attack exposed a [16:26] devastating security failure on [16:27] Netanyahu's watch, intensifying demands [16:30] that he accept responsibility. But we've [16:32] also seen major Israeli military [16:34] operations against regional adversaries. [16:36] Israel has dealt significant blows to [16:38] Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran's military [16:40] capabilities. Even as these threats [16:43] remain, the wars have altered the [16:44] regional balance of power, but also [16:46] brought enormous destruction, diplomatic [16:49] strain, and international condemnation, [16:51] which many believe Israel has not [16:52] sufficiently confronted. But we've also [16:54] seen the return of all the hostages, [16:56] living and deceased, following years of [16:59] war and negotiations. At home, wartime [17:01] spending has put pressure on the economy [17:03] while Israelis continue to grapple with [17:05] the cost of living. We've seen [17:06] controversies surrounding far-right [17:08] coalition ministers, including Itamar [17:10] Benvir, Betsalism Smudrich, and Orit [17:13] Stroke. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's [17:14] corruption trial continues. The [17:16] proceedings began in 2020 and involved [17:18] three cases in which he's accused of [17:20] accepting expensive gifts from wealthy [17:22] businessmen and seeking favorable media [17:24] coverage in exchange for political and [17:26] regulatory favors. Netanyao faces [17:28] charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of [17:31] trust, though he denies any wrongdoing. [17:33] We've also seen the International [17:35] Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant [17:37] against Netanyahu over alleged war [17:38] crimes and crimes against humanity. Many [17:41] though view the warrant as reflecting [17:43] either anti-Israel bias or ineffective [17:45] Israeli public diplomacy. Now though, as [17:47] Israelis head back to the polls, [17:49] Netanyahu's decades in power are once [17:51] again at the center of the country's [17:53] political debate. [18:01] of uh Israel. Um we will tell you that [18:05] the uh turnout is something we're going [18:06] to take a look at uh next because that [18:09] was one of the big things uh across [18:11] today how high that turnout was. Uh Sam. [18:14] >> Yeah. So we've already seen history [18:16] being made. Uh voter turnout has blown [18:19] previous elections out of the water. Uh [18:21] to put this in perspective, in the last [18:22] election in 2022 at 8:00 p.m. voter [18:25] turnout had hit uh 66%, today hit that [18:28] mark by 6 p.m. That's 2 hours earlier. [18:30] Uh in fact, in 2022, the total v voter [18:33] turnout was about 70%. Today at around [18:36] 7:30 with still 2 and a half hours to [18:38] go, uh voter turnout had exceeded that. [18:40] By 8:00 p.m. today, voter turnout had [18:42] hit about 3/4 74%. [18:45] >> Absolutely. and and and the other thing [18:46] that that's affected voter turnout has [18:48] been the massive rain and flooding [18:50] across Israel. We're known to be quite [18:52] warm here. Rain is not something we tend [18:54] to deal with. So parts of the country [18:56] were actually cut off today. Uh getting [18:58] into elat. Uh roads were essentially [19:00] blocked earlier on. Right. Um so [19:03] normally again a very temperate country [19:05] but uh uh the rain has uh has gotten us [19:08] a little soaked here. Um, so we're going [19:11] to have our uh our exit polls come out [19:14] soon. Uh, a quick note on how those [19:17] work. Uh, pollsters survey uh voters uh [19:20] at selected polling stations after [19:22] they've uh voted. Instead of asking who [19:24] they plan to vote for, uh, they've asked [19:26] they pretty much ask them who they [19:27] already voted for by duplicating the [19:29] process. It's again it's anonymous. Um [19:32] so how they're conducted uh thousands of [19:35] responses are collected and adjusted to [19:37] uh distribute those 120 Knesset seats uh [19:40] we've talked about earlier. Uh and then [19:42] from the major broadcasters here in [19:43] Israel including Khan 11 that the public [19:45] broadcaster channel 121 13 are released [19:48] at 10 p.m. uh when voting ends. [19:51] >> Yeah absolutely. Um, so before we do any [19:54] of that, uh, what we're going to do now [19:56] is, uh, turn to our guests who are with [19:57] us in, uh, studio. Um, with us this [20:01] evening is, uh, Gil Troy of the JPI, [20:04] also a, uh, a JPOT columnist, also with [20:08] us tonight. Mhm. Israel Clayton, um, [20:11] also JPI, and we have, uh, Mike Star uh, [20:15] from Honest Reporting, formerly of the [20:16] Jerusalem Post as well. Good evening to [20:18] all of you. [20:19] >> Good evening. Good evening. [20:20] >> Honored to be here. [20:21] So, uh, I I think I'm going to start [20:23] with you, Gil, because I mean the one of [20:25] the things that's been really important [20:27] tonight has been, uh, across this [20:29] campaign has been the connection with [20:31] the US. Uh, Trump ended up endorsing [20:34] Netanyahu. Um, how do you think [20:37] Washington is going to be looking uh, at [20:39] all of this tonight? [20:41] >> Well, before I get to Washington, I want [20:42] to stick to Israel and say 64 6660. [20:45] Those are the percentages of the voter [20:47] turnouts in the United States of [20:48] America, a robust democracy over the [20:50] last three presidential campaigns. And [20:52] so it's quite striking that Israelis, [20:54] left, right, religious, non-religious, [20:57] Arab and Jewish, have said we're using [20:59] exercising our democratic vote. That's [21:01] extraordinary. And I think that will [21:02] make a difference in America. Uh I think [21:04] Americans are very worried about the [21:05] campaign. Uh I mean they're also [21:08] obsessed with their midterm elections, [21:09] of course, but um the Washington, it's [21:12] interesting. There was an article in the [21:13] Jerusalem Post today saying that [21:15] Washington's hoping for some kind of [21:16] unity government. Uh not sure that's [21:19] going to happen, but American Jews are [21:21] very very worried. They feel very uh [21:23] dismissed and disrespected by Benjamin [21:25] Netanyahu. That's not a political [21:26] statement. That's just an observation, [21:28] right? [21:28] >> And um they also in polls and this to me [21:31] is shocking and unacceptable. They tend [21:32] to blame him and the Israeli government [21:34] and the Israeli army for anti-semitism [21:36] more than the anti-semites. We can talk [21:38] about that in group therapy later. Uh so [21:40] yes, this is going to be something that [21:41] is going to be talked about. And by the [21:42] way, it's interesting. New York Times, [21:44] Newsweek, Time magazine, all of them had [21:46] front page uh and top uh by by lines [21:50] about um about the election today. [21:52] >> Yes. So we have our exit polls coming [21:53] out in just a couple minutes here, but [21:55] but but real quick first uh to to Mike, [21:58] uh we've seen from uh voters from [22:00] American Jews, uh there's some polling [22:02] indicating that uh the majority of them [22:04] prefer an opposition victory. What do [22:06] you make of that? Well, historically, [22:08] American jury has always leaned more in [22:11] the liberal direction. So, it wouldn't [22:13] be a surprise in that regard. But as as [22:15] Gil uh stated that there's there is a [22:17] sentiment among American jury that uh [22:20] well, if if only uh a more uh left-wing [22:24] or more centrist government, uh anyone [22:27] who's not BB would enter the uh enter [22:30] the picture. uh perhaps a coalition [22:32] without uh certain characters such as [22:34] Benfair or Smidge then uh there would be [22:37] less pressure on them then there would [22:38] be it would be more acceptable to [22:41] support Israel. Uh so there there is [22:43] that that sentiment but that's already [22:46] uh existent within within the the Jewish [22:48] population. [22:49] >> Yep. Uh so we're coming up here in just [22:52] a minute with uh with the polling. Uh [22:54] stay tuned for that in just uh just a [22:56] few seconds here. [22:58] >> Absolutely. We're going to have the exit [23:00] polls for you. And it's important to [23:01] explain uh explain exactly what the exit [23:03] polls are and how those work because of [23:05] course these are not uh these are not [23:08] full uh this isn't going to give us the [23:10] full answers. These are essentially a [23:12] prediction. uh people stand outside the [23:14] polling stations uh representing various [23:16] polling organizations uh represented by [23:18] the channels and they will indeed uh be [23:22] able to uh [23:24] check in with the voters and ask them uh [23:27] exactly uh what's going on there. But as [23:30] we uh wait there, we're we're just going [23:32] to continue in in the next few moments [23:35] and and just keep an eye as those come [23:37] through. [23:38] >> Right. And just another note, um, so [23:40] historically they they tend to be kind [23:42] of accurate about generally how these [23:44] coalitions, how these blocks come [23:45] together, even though they're not always [23:47] accurate about exactly which parties get [23:48] how many seats. Um, you know, because [23:52] those things can change. We have a 3.25% [23:54] threshold if a party can make it into [23:56] the Knesset and that can throw things [23:58] off. Uh, but generally we might see the [24:00] the the the shape of how coalitions [24:03] might might look. But if it's going to [24:05] be very close uh like uh maybe a 5961 [24:08] split for instance uh it's really [24:10] anybody's anybody's game even even with [24:12] the exit polls. [24:14] >> Absolutely. Uh but before we do that uh [24:16] we can just talk to our guests a little [24:19] bit more about this in terms of um [24:21] Israel because you were you were with [24:23] Naftali Bennett's uh as an adviser. What [24:27] do you think uh leaders are feeling this [24:29] evening uh before we we get to you know [24:32] knowing what the outcome could [24:34] potentially be? [24:35] >> Leaders in Israel or in the US? [24:38] >> I say leaders in Israel because tonight [24:39] they're going to be you know they've [24:41] done their last minute blitzes. they've [24:42] been hoping to to find out and uh in the [24:47] next few moments actually we're going to [24:48] have uh the results uh for you and uh or [24:52] rather the exit poll numbers for you in [24:55] the next few moments. Channel 12 has [24:58] just come in to us here and we'll bring [25:00] that up for you in just a moment. [25:04] >> I think uh leaders and others, right, [25:07] everybody in Israel today should should [25:09] be proud of this moment. uh a moment in [25:12] which we've it seems like we're going to [25:15] surpass any previous outcome of of the [25:18] amount of turnout that that this [25:20] election is is seeing. And that's an [25:22] incredible thing because what I think it [25:25] says above anything else is that [25:27] Israelis are still not only engaged, but [25:30] they're bought into this idea, this [25:32] notion of the state of Israel as a [25:34] robust democracy, as a Jewish democracy, [25:36] >> and one that has hope wherever every [25:40] anybody wants to take that, be it on the [25:41] left or on the right, uh on the BB block [25:44] or on the antiBB block. and and this is [25:47] I think real real cause for optimism on [25:50] a day that otherwise could have gone in [25:52] another direction. [25:53] >> So thank you uh hate hate to cut you [25:56] off. I just want to read out for our [25:58] audience uh what the what the channel 12 [26:00] uh exit polling is looking like. Uh so [26:02] far uh it's looking like the Lud [26:05] Benjamin Netanyahu's party uh has [26:07] emerged the strongest uh in within his [26:10] block. It's looking like Shas the [26:12] religious uh the religious party Shas uh [26:14] is getting about eight seats. United [26:16] Towardry Judaism with six Osma Yudit [26:18] that's uh National Security Minister [26:20] Itar Bengir's party uh with six [26:23] religious the religious Zionist party [26:24] that's uh finance minister Bets Motric's [26:27] party uh also with six and the people of [26:29] Israel uh not making the threshold in [26:32] the opposition we have yesar which is [26:34] led by Gotti Eisenkot with 22 uh then [26:37] Baka led by Napali Bennett with 12 uh [26:40] the Democrats headed by Ya Golan with [26:42] nine is by with Avidor Lieberman also [26:46] with nine. Uh the uh reser economic [26:49] party uh not clearing that threshold, [26:51] but the Arab majority party uh the joint [26:54] list coming with 11 uh 11 seats [26:56] according to that poll and ROM with [26:58] seven. So that would be a total of of 18 [27:00] seats for air majority parties which [27:01] which would be uh very very historic. [27:04] >> Absolutely. Uh and with us also on on [27:06] screen now we now have channel 13's [27:09] numbers as well. Uh vaguely in the same [27:12] in the same area. [27:13] >> Right. Right. We're we're seeing Lud [27:15] again uh emerge with the strongest [27:17] results. Uh according to channel 13, [27:19] they they get 25 uh Knesset seats. Uh [27:22] behind them would be Yashar. Uh but [27:24] again a very uh sorry Yoshar with 23 [27:26] seats. But uh it's very similar [27:29] distribution in in the Lud and the [27:30] Netanyahu block. Shas with six seats, [27:33] United toward Judaism with seven [27:34] according to this poll. Osma Yud with [27:36] six and religious Zionist party with [27:38] six. Uh on the opposition we are seeing [27:40] Yashar with 23. uh Nefali Benad with 14, [27:45] the Democrats with nine, Israel Betenuh [27:47] with seven and again uh the joint list [27:50] with 10 and Ram with seven. Uh so uh [27:53] that's uh you know still very very [27:55] strong showing uh [27:56] >> absolutely and and the big thing here is [27:58] that neither block has managed to reach [28:00] 61. That's still that's still the case. [28:02] And it's also very important to tell you [28:04] tonight these are not the results. These [28:07] are a prediction. They are based on as [28:10] we said before people standing outside [28:12] polling stations and asking but but at [28:14] the moment from channel 11, channel 12 [28:17] and channel 13 uh LI could has the lead [28:22] tonight [28:22] >> that that Israeli public broadcaster [28:24] Khan 11 showing very similar again Lud [28:27] with 25 seats um you know a strong lead [28:31] uh the next largest party being with 21 [28:33] uh but again we're seeing uh pretty much [28:36] uh the same distribution mostly across [28:38] the board again the joint list in Rahm [28:40] uh 10 seats and then seven and then [28:42] seven seats and there's 17 uh total for [28:44] the Arab majority parties. [28:46] >> Absolutely. [28:47] >> So let's let's go over to our panelists. [28:49] Uh so you you've heard uh these these [28:51] results from the uh from the exit polls. [28:54] Um Israel, what what what do you make of [28:56] this so far? [28:57] I think as very much as predicted in [29:00] terms of the fact that we knew basically [29:03] since the first initial polls began to [29:06] pull what these elections were going to [29:07] look like. We understood that there is a [29:09] deadlock in a continuation to the five [29:12] previous election cycles that we've seen [29:14] over the span of 3 years and and here we [29:17] are again. uh the people are clearly [29:20] spiit split and especially when it comes [29:22] to this terminology that we are so [29:25] accustomed to using which is I think [29:27] pretty twisted and backwards but here we [29:29] are which is the pro- Netanyao and the [29:31] anti-et black as opposed to true [29:33] ideology talk as as well as talking [29:36] about the the real fissurers that are [29:38] tearing apart Israeli society uh and not [29:41] the personality that that is looming [29:44] above everything um and we we find [29:47] ourselves, I think, at this uh uh pretty [29:51] difficult moment because ultimately what [29:53] this means is the standoff continues. [29:56] And if Netanyahu is not willing to [29:59] budge, then the opposition is not going [30:02] to be able to put together a coalition. [30:04] And if they if if the coalition doesn't [30:08] budge, the same is true. Yeah. [30:11] >> Uh so so we we're essentially this game [30:14] of chicken uh where where both the [30:18] opposition leader in this case it's [30:20] Gotti Eisenot but uh we could have some [30:23] some spins in that story as well with [30:25] Israel Betenu and uh and Yashar [30:28] potentially calling a challenge on on [30:31] Gadi Eisenot's leadership. But if that's [30:33] not the case, then we're talking about [30:34] Eisen Eisenot against BB and who's going [30:37] to blink first in in potentially uh uh [30:41] being able to to reach across the aisle [30:43] in some way that would break that [30:45] deadlock. Uh the other thing that I'll [30:46] just say really quickly which is pretty [30:48] clear uh if these initial polls are are [30:51] indeed correct uh these exit polls then [30:53] what we already see is that the smaller [30:56] parties that would have told a lot of [30:58] the story of the outcome of this [30:59] election is going to is going to mean [31:02] that they they didn't cross the [31:04] threshold given the fact that we see [31:06] such a high turnout rate. Uh so we knew [31:08] that their numbers were going to be [31:10] driven down by that proportional [31:11] representation. And here we are with two [31:14] parties. It looks like both the [31:16] Midimnikim as well as uh uh or winter. [31:20] Um which in both instances I believe [31:24] that to be more detrimental to [31:26] Netanyahu's possibility of cobbling [31:28] together a coalition. So I think this [31:30] also means a really interesting question [31:32] for who President Isaac Hartzog is going [31:36] to task first with trying to put [31:37] together that coalition. [31:39] >> Absolutely. Bill, to you I I I mean [31:42] you're you're a presidential historian, [31:44] which also I imagine means you have a [31:45] little bit of a a view on uh how sort of [31:49] traditionally voter turnouts might sort [31:52] of indicate things over history. One [31:55] thing that I heard over today was that [31:56] the historic turnout could potentially [31:58] mean that liquid may not do as well as [32:04] as [32:05] could be expected and might have done [32:07] worse. What what do you think? [32:10] >> So, it's interesting. You know, all day [32:11] uh everyone's phones have been buzzing [32:13] with these um hysterical cries. You have [32:16] to go out and vote. You have to come and [32:17] vote. And on the one hand, it's lovely [32:18] and we celebrated the democratic part of [32:20] it, lowercase D. But there also was [32:22] unfortunately a real undercurrent of [32:25] anti-Arab bigotry. Uh BB Netanyahu said [32:28] something to the effect of there were [32:29] all these leftist women who were who [32:31] were driving Arab women to the polls [32:33] which was just like a bizarre kind of [32:35] twist. And let's go back to 2015 when [32:39] the same prime minister Benjamin [32:40] Netanyahu got up on election day and [32:43] said the Arabs are voting in droves. A [32:45] week later he apologized. And one of the [32:47] things that breaks my heart about what's [32:49] going on in Israeli society today and in [32:51] the story of BB Netanyahu is that it's [32:53] very unlikely that next week he'll [32:54] apologize. But what he said 11 years ago [32:57] was I'm sorry I understand I hurt some [32:59] of my fellow Israeli citizens. And I [33:02] think it's significant also uh and this [33:04] is I think the gift that Ben has given [33:06] to the likud. Uh I think part of the [33:08] reason why there are possibly as many as [33:11] 17 Arab states uh and there's such a [33:14] high Arab turnout uh is because Arabs [33:16] are really terrified and infuriated and [33:18] offended by Bengir and we really have to [33:20] figure out how we work together in the [33:22] society, how we live together in the [33:23] society and this kind of demagoguery and [33:26] bigotry versus the Arabs is [33:27] unacceptable. And also, we have to point [33:29] out that over the last couple of years, [33:30] we've seen far too much demonizing from [33:33] both sides. And I really hope that this [33:35] election and the high voter turnout gets [33:37] us saying, "Wait a minute." And there's [33:38] something special in the air today, [33:39] right? Today was really a kind of a [33:41] democratic holiday. [33:43] There was a kind of calm in the air. And [33:45] I hope that we can take some of that [33:46] calm from today and spread it out over [33:49] the next couple of months of negotiation [33:51] and years of living together. [33:53] >> So, I I want to touch upon maybe what's [33:55] one of the biggest elephants in the [33:56] room. uh there's a split. No block is [33:59] clearly reaching a 61 seat majority and [34:01] the opposition block has mostly except [34:03] for Yer Golan ruled out sitting with the [34:05] Arab majority parties. Um so here the [34:08] question being um with with that split [34:11] if for the opposition uh sitting with [34:14] the the Arab majority parties could mean [34:16] victory or or if not sitting them with [34:18] with them could mean loss. Do you think [34:20] that um uh this this is for for all [34:23] three of you uh that the opposition [34:25] party will stick to its guns and say [34:26] we're not sitting with the air majority [34:28] parties or or they they give ground? [34:31] Uh let's let's start with Israel. [34:34] Um [34:36] I believe that Netanyahu actually [34:39] started this. So BB [34:42] really tried to get uh Ram at the time, [34:46] this was a few election cycles ago to [34:49] join into his coalition until Batalis [34:51] Madridge caught wind of it and [34:53] completely foiled that plan. Um but that [34:55] was the beginning process of putting [34:58] this kosher seal of approval on an Arab [35:00] party for the first time in Israel's [35:02] history to join into a Jewish coalition [35:05] or a Jewish majority coalition. and Nali [35:08] Bennett then went that extra mile [35:10] together with Yayer Laid and everybody [35:12] else who was in the coalition which made [35:14] me very proud to be a part of that [35:16] momentous uh uh occasion and that [35:20] signaled that there there could be a new [35:23] wave a new a new a new way of doing [35:25] politics in this country especially [35:27] given Gil what I think you aptly just [35:29] stated which is that these are people [35:31] who are living in this country [35:33] significant minority population about [35:35] 21% of the population and there is no [35:38] other way, right? We we need to figure [35:40] this out somehow. Uh and here comes this [35:42] guy, Mansur Abas, an incredibly [35:44] courageous leader, who says, "I'm [35:46] putting the national aspirations aside, [35:48] and I'm willing to do politics in an [35:50] entirely different way for the sake of [35:51] my own minority population that [35:53] desperately needs help in uh uh in in in [35:57] crime that's raging and and many other [35:59] sectors that that definitely that [36:01] desperately need help." Um [36:05] then October 7th hits and one of the [36:08] things that I think that that uh um [36:13] was probably most successful in he was [36:15] successful in many things on that [36:18] terrible day of October 7th. But one of [36:20] them was was trying to again foil this [36:23] trajectory of seeing a better future for [36:27] cooperation and collaboration between [36:29] Isra uh Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. [36:32] And that was on a path and and as I said [36:35] a trajectory of of growth. Uh and and [36:38] then we heard every single party since [36:40] October 7th basically every single [36:42] Jewish party say we're not going to [36:45] cross that rubric again because that's [36:47] that's not going to be good politics. [36:49] That's not what our base wants. That's [36:50] not what the the Jewish people want at [36:52] this moment in time. Um what I believe [36:55] will happen now uh is is that given so [36:59] so I I really think it depends on the [37:01] numbers. uh if indeed RAM has [37:04] outperformed its predictions, I think it [37:07] was polling mostly at around six, but if [37:10] it's if if it reaches the numbers of [37:12] seven or even potentially eight seats, [37:15] uh that puts them in a really key [37:17] position to potentially be uh uh the the [37:21] kingmaker in this instance. Uh even more [37:24] so than than some of the other [37:26] potentials that could be a swing. Some [37:28] people were talking about Lieberman. I [37:30] don't know. I think that that's m much [37:32] more in the conspiracy theory conspiracy [37:35] theory land uh or territory in I I I [37:39] believe that RAM is much more of a key [37:42] factor given the size of of of how [37:46] they've performed and again that's to be [37:48] deter determined but if that is indeed [37:51] the case uh there's there's a real [37:53] potential for them to actually break the [37:55] deadlock [37:55] >> and and they are projected to have their [37:58] seven seats according to these according [38:00] to these current uh exit polls. I want [38:03] to just move on slightly because uh I [38:05] mean what we've seen tonight is that the [38:07] smaller parties uh have not performed [38:11] particularly well uh of winter's uh [38:14] party uh people of Israel. We've got uh [38:17] the Reserist Economic Party that [38:19] involved uh uh Yav Hendel uh not not [38:23] getting any seats projected not to have [38:25] any seats and the Kadi public also not [38:29] projected to have any seats. Uh Mike, do [38:31] you mind if I ask you um what do you [38:33] think in terms of how much Arab voter [38:36] turnout could have potentially shifted [38:38] uh their chances? [38:41] I I I think it the massive turnout just [38:44] because of of the way the system is [38:45] constructed, of course, is going to to [38:48] impact the smaller parties, but it could [38:50] also be indicative that Israelis uh are [38:53] just more strategically minded. They're [38:54] more inclined to vote strategically as [38:57] opposed to with their hearts. A lot of [38:59] these smaller parties were uh with [39:01] specialist interests uh reserveists uh [39:05] or or more more ideologically inclined [39:07] uh and and people were perhaps just not [39:10] willing to to risk wasting their votes [39:12] over the possibility that uh these [39:14] smaller parties were not going to uh get [39:17] over the the threshold. If we go over to [39:20] another round of of voting, uh we could [39:23] see those who did invest their vote into [39:26] the smaller parties, uh they they could [39:29] uh say, well, this time we'll we'll vote [39:31] with our minds rather than our hearts, [39:33] and maybe that will will alter the the [39:36] playing field just a little bit more. So [39:39] if you're um over over to uh to Gil, if [39:42] you're Netanyahu right now uh and you [39:44] had been telling somebody like [39:46] overwinter to to jump out of the race [39:48] because of fears of not making it, uh [39:50] what are you feeling right now that uh [39:52] that the people of Israel and um and uh [39:55] the the public party haven't cleared [39:58] apparently? [40:00] Well, I think Netanyahu is it seemed to [40:02] me in the weeks building up to this that [40:04] Netao was panicking and he's the shudest [40:08] reader of Israeli politics that I know. [40:10] And I think tonight he's probably [40:12] feeling pretty good. Uh even though it [40:14] turns out that the opposition has more [40:17] seats by the exit exit polls than than [40:19] he does. Uh I think he's done better [40:21] than a lot of people expected and [40:22] feared. And certainly certainly let's go [40:24] back to October 7th. Let's go back to [40:26] the the the panic in Leud, the refusal [40:29] to have an investigation committee. Uh [40:32] the the the if anyone on October 7th had [40:35] said that Netanyahu was going to end up [40:36] getting the most number of votes, even [40:38] according to an exit poll, they people [40:39] would have said, "You're dreaming of [40:40] Technicolor." And we also have to give [40:42] Netanyahu credit. I think that while I [40:43] have a lot of criticisms of him, as [40:44] you've heard earlier, uh he did an [40:46] extraordinary job with the war. I think [40:48] that uh he had a series of very [40:50] difficult decisions to make every single [40:52] day. He stood up to Joe Biden. and he [40:54] stood up to the Americans frequently and [40:56] he got many uh accomplishments and I [40:58] think we all have to acknowledge that [41:00] the Israelis who voted for him are [41:02] basically saying shapo you did that and [41:04] whatever mistakes were made on October [41:06] 7th there've been three years of some [41:08] results since then so it's not a great [41:11] result for Netanyahu or for anybody [41:12] because nobody has a clear victory but I [41:14] think given the the degree to which [41:16] people were uh saying the mourners kish [41:18] over him again and again and again um [41:20] he's probably doing a little bit of a [41:21] victory dance [41:22] >> I mean he is but at the same time uh you [41:26] know he he if these numbers pan out it [41:29] means that Isaac Herzog the president of [41:32] Israel will come to him first to form a [41:34] government because that is that is how [41:36] it goes largest party gets asked to form [41:38] a government yet at the same time is [41:40] there any path is there actually any [41:42] path uh because these numbers right now [41:46] don't seem to indicate that he could [41:48] actually you know it's all a building [41:50] block on that race to 60 to 61 one I I [41:53] don't think he has the numbers [41:54] >> or even just to form a minority [41:56] government, you know, if it's if it's [41:57] even taking the Arab majority parties [41:59] out of it. Um it how would he beat the [42:02] uh the opposition uh coalition? [42:06] >> Yeah, look, the the the math is very [42:08] sobering. Let's say that if if the Arabs [42:10] aren't being counted, you're talking [42:11] about 103 seats, if the 17 is correct, [42:14] and 120 person Knesset. So you're [42:17] already both parties are but both sides [42:20] are are caught trying to maneuver. Now [42:22] in the last couple of weeks when [42:23] everybody also started talking deadlock [42:25] there also has been this fantasy of some [42:28] kind of centrist uh coalition that would [42:31] include include Liberman include Bennett [42:34] and include um uh and and and include [42:37] the the Eisenkot. And the funny thing is [42:40] is that on many many issues they agree [42:42] except it goes back to Israel saying [42:44] it's all about BB. And so in many ways [42:46] even the opposition is caught are we [42:49] more going to stick to our no BB vow or [42:52] we going to more stick to our no Arab [42:54] vow and what will be the downside for [42:56] each in terms of their uh their [42:58] political standing [43:00] >> also tonight uh uh one thing that that's [43:03] come out uh to out today because we've [43:05] seen look we've seen protests uh during [43:10] the jud judicial reform uh or judicial [43:13] overhaul or whatever you want to call Um [43:15] and and that was we saw violence. Uh we [43:19] saw that uh it's Ben who was the [43:22] national security minister in the [43:23] whatever the outgoing government is um [43:26] stoked some of that violence. Uh someone [43:29] came towards uh Ya Golan with a knife. [43:32] Uh one of Naftali Bennett's security [43:34] guards uh was I believe shoved. Uh so I [43:38] mean I it doesn't speak well to where [43:41] this is going because even if even if [43:44] this moves forward um there's not [43:47] necessarily a situation in which um we [43:50] see calming going on to you is I mean [43:54] you've you've sort of been around uh the [43:57] halls of power. Can you talk us through [43:59] a little bit what goes on potentially in [44:02] governments where they're where they're [44:03] trying to handle that that sort of thing [44:06] and what leaders will potentially be [44:08] trying to do uh potentially in this [44:10] situation? [44:13] >> Okay. Very different leadership styles [44:15] between Nathaniel and Natali Bennett. [44:18] Um, I think from going back to to uh [44:21] Gil's point a moment ago on on uh [44:25] >> what would happen and how would [44:27] Netanyahu deal with him getting the uh [44:30] uh even if he doesn't have that path to [44:33] victory. I I actually I agree. I think [44:36] he's running a victory lap right now. [44:39] Netanyahu is because he understands that [44:41] by just maintaining power and [44:43] maintaining his seat right now and even [44:45] if that means going into a transitional [44:47] government and continuing on to the next [44:49] election cycle that allows for him to [44:52] dictate the rules of the game, the rules [44:53] of engagement, that also allows for him [44:56] to maintain what the topic of the day [44:59] looks like. And that also, to your [45:01] point, Mike, before uh um it also means [45:04] that when when uh uh the smaller parties [45:08] in the next elections and the fatigue of [45:10] those who voted for those smaller [45:12] parties are dissipated, uh that his [45:15] numbers potentially reach higher [45:17] heights. And I believe that that's what [45:20] he's thinking right now. Uh but [45:22] specifically with regards to your [45:23] question about the use of power and what [45:25] that looks like in in those sensitive [45:27] hallways, um again I I think it's a very [45:30] different and and I would claim much [45:33] glooier picture in the Netanyahu [45:35] hallways as it is as opposed to what it [45:38] was in in the Bennett hallways where uh [45:40] um look Napali Bennett's government [45:43] slipped away because Nathaniel was so [45:46] shrewd and so capable as an oppositional [45:49] leader and he understood how to lay on [45:51] each and every last MK's uh sensitive [45:56] spots and weak points and and and really [45:59] exploit them to the point where [46:01] ultimately there were all it took was [46:02] one or two to topple the government. [46:04] >> I ask you about that actually because [46:06] because [46:07] >> the the opposition has saw exactly what [46:10] happened there. Do you think uh if we [46:12] end up in a situation where Eisenot ends [46:16] up being you know because Netanyahu may [46:18] not be able to form a government we then [46:19] have Eisenot potentially being asked [46:22] this is just a scenario and then Eisenot [46:24] ends up as as with some form of [46:26] coalition government be that minority or [46:28] what what have you. Do you think the [46:30] opposition has learned do you think [46:33] these party leaders will know now a how [46:36] to deal with exactly that or b how to [46:38] how to handle it? I think if the problem [46:41] is the it's a structural problem as was [46:44] mentioned here before. Uh Napali Bennett [46:48] governed over a a slim majority [46:52] government of 61 with a party that only [46:55] held at the time six seats. uh in this [46:58] case if they're going to be in a [47:00] minority government that is leaning on [47:03] outside parties or even with the the ROM [47:06] party inside of it even in that instance [47:08] it's going to be a very difficult [47:10] coalition to govern and BB is going to [47:12] be able to easily exploit them because [47:14] they are exploitable um it all it takes [47:18] just imagine right uh uh an another [47:22] large event where uh god forbid Israel [47:25] has to launch another full-scale attack [47:27] on Gaza. And there we are sitting with a [47:30] coalition together with Ram that is also [47:33] leaning on the outside support of the [47:35] joint uh uh joint Arab List. And and [47:38] that's the that's like the easiest thing [47:40] to to take apart and and and crush. Uh [47:44] the other thing I'll say is is that it's [47:46] even worse than what I just laid out [47:48] because even if they are successful in [47:50] hanging on by a thread um what could [47:54] potentially happen next is the pendulum [47:57] can swing in the other direction even [47:59] harder. uh which I do believe is the [48:02] case of what we have what we've seen [48:04] with Napali Bennett's government [48:05] together with Yayid where for a very [48:08] short period of time there was holding [48:10] on to to grasping on to uh what what [48:13] that normal coalition looked like but it [48:15] was so slim and it was so flimsy that [48:18] when it did collapse BB was able to then [48:21] take that apart and and turn it into I [48:23] think a much more extreme version of [48:26] politics than than we've ever seen in [48:28] this country [48:29] >> and While you've been talking, uh, we've [48:31] been, our viewers have been, uh, having [48:33] a look at the, uh, party headquarters [48:35] this evening. One thing that I've [48:37] noticed here, um, Sam, is the the [48:40] difference between some of them, um, [48:41] because LI could from the live shot that [48:43] we've got at Liood, uh, you see, uh, [48:47] some of the election campaigning videos [48:49] that have been on screen. Meanwhile, at [48:51] Yesh, you've got uh you've got the [48:54] actual three of the news channels [48:56] playing on the screen, which is [48:57] interesting. uh over at Bahad it's [49:00] looking it's looking quite sparse. Maybe [49:02] that will change throughout the evening. [49:05] Uh we're gonna find out. We'll keep an [49:08] eye on that for you as well. [49:10] >> So again, these are just the exit polls [49:12] that have come in. Uh the next days [49:14] we'll see um we'll see um more uh back [49:18] more negotiations and as as the actual [49:21] results come in. But one question is um [49:24] as these actual results come in over the [49:25] next days uh what's one thing to watch [49:28] uh for for these results and in fact the [49:31] next government that nobody's talking [49:32] about? Uh Mike, that's for you. [49:35] >> Well, one thing uh that no one's really [49:37] talking about yet is how the rest of the [49:41] world is going to respond to whoever uh [49:43] comes into power. Uh and I think [49:46] largely, you know, you you saw leading [49:49] up to the election that uh well [49:52] commentariat and and the the legacy [49:55] media uh as well as you saw on social [49:58] media were saying, well uh regardless of [50:01] who is in power, they're they're they're [50:03] just as bad as BB or they're they're [50:05] even worse than BB. uh you see the [50:08] Jewish uh legacy institutions uh really [50:13] have not posted much about the [50:15] elections. Uh if they have, it's more of [50:17] a celebration of uh Israeli democracy. [50:21] Uh they're because they're careful and [50:23] they're going to support they'll support [50:25] Israel regardless uh of who is in [50:27] charge. Doesn't matter who. Uh we're [50:30] with you. the anti-Israel uh movement. [50:34] Uh it's it's the opposite of that. No [50:37] matter no matter who f the Jews, they're [50:40] they're going to find something about [50:42] Bennett, they're going to find something [50:43] out Eisenkot that they don't like. Uh [50:45] and so anyone who's expecting uh a great [50:48] change is as is the hope among a lot of [50:52] the American jury uh I I I feel that [50:55] they may be greatly disappointed and [50:58] that uh belief if if we go to further [51:01] rounds and and American Jews have to [51:03] come back or diaspora has to come back [51:05] to do further voting uh that that could [51:08] uh impact the uh uh future results if we [51:12] go to future rounds. So if they are [51:14] shaken from that that uh that belief [51:16] then then perhaps that might change [51:18] things as well. [51:19] >> Gil over to you. So what what should we [51:21] be watching that nobody's talking about? [51:22] >> Well, we haven't talked about Iran, [51:24] Iran, Iran. And I think that's very [51:26] important. Uh let's add in the US [51:28] midterm elections. The latest rumors and [51:30] their rumors uh are that once the [51:34] midterms are over, then Trump and [51:36] Netanyahu are going to want to go and [51:37] clean house in Iran. How would that play [51:39] out when Israel is in a transition is [51:42] question number one. Question number two [51:44] is how will it play out if Trump has [51:46] lost uh and is desperate to get some [51:48] kind of victory before the the the [51:51] Congress turns Democratic and perhaps [51:54] even the Senate? And three is what would [51:56] actually happen in the event of a 2, [51:57] three day, four day, who knows [51:59] conflation, would Iran collapse? What's [52:02] going on? So that's that's one of the [52:03] big issues. The other thing is look at [52:05] the youth vote. um young Israelis voted [52:09] in droves, if I can use that phrase, and [52:11] many of them were religious and many of [52:13] them were conservative. And that may be [52:14] one of the missing factors that uh we'll [52:17] see in in a fuller analysis. [52:20] >> Absolutely. It's one of those uh big [52:22] questions uh this evening. And now [52:26] joining us in studio is uh Alex Winston, [52:31] our uh news editor here at the Jerusalem [52:36] Post. Alex, um what's your view on the [52:39] numbers uh so far? [52:42] >> It's fascinating. I mean we've been [52:44] really really interested to look ahead [52:46] you know looking ahead to this election [52:47] of what's going to happen and the fact [52:49] that Netanyahu's liquid party seems [52:51] projected to win to be the biggest party [52:53] but Eisenot's block seems projected to [52:55] be the biggest it's fascinating I mean [52:57] it really shows sort of as Gil said [53:00] eloquently before I mean it's sort of a [53:02] victory for democracy it's been a really [53:05] really interesting election Israelis [53:07] have taken to the streets it's [53:08] absolutely fascinating and I have to [53:10] echo what the gentleman's what the [53:12] gentle man also said earlier a penny for [53:14] Isaac Kerto's thoughts who where's he [53:16] going to go you know is he going to [53:18] stick with the long-term leader [53:20] Netanyahu who has been in power for so [53:22] many so many years or or is he going to [53:25] is he going to speak to people and [53:27] decide Eisenot has the better chance of [53:29] forming a government it's absolutely [53:30] fascinating really fascinating [53:32] >> so Alex I want to follow up on that with [53:34] one one other thing we've seen in the uh [53:36] campaigns both sides have saying you [53:38] vote for us or you're voting for the [53:41] Palestinians You've heard from uh the [53:43] Netanyahu led block uh Yamin or [53:46] Palestine, but you've also seen the [53:49] >> which by the way means right or or [53:51] Palestinians just by [53:52] >> right. Thank you so much. Um but you've [53:54] also seen uh Eisenhot uh run ads saying [53:57] that uh you know uh Netanyahu is pro [54:00] Palestinian. Um, so it really [54:04] realistically whatever the next [54:05] government is, are we likely like likely [54:07] to see big shifts in uh like military [54:10] doctrine as far as Gaza, as far as Iran? [54:12] What's your take on that? [54:14] >> I really don't think so. I mean, it's [54:15] been well documented since October 7th [54:18] or since the last elections as well [54:19] going even further back sort of the [54:21] demise of the left in this country. [54:24] People have looked at these elections [54:25] and sort of the furthest left-wing party [54:27] as one could traditionally describe it. [54:29] People have ascribed that to Yay Golan's [54:31] Democrats and how left-wing Yaya Golan [54:34] actually is himself is, you know, a bit [54:36] of a question mark. This is a hero uh of [54:39] October 7th. He saved people saved [54:42] people's lives with his own hands, you [54:44] know. So, the sort of traditional [54:46] metrics with how we would look at an [54:48] Israeli election or any election aren't [54:50] really there this time. But I think as [54:52] you pointed out really well, there's not [54:54] that much difference between Netanyahu [54:56] and Eizenot's uh mantras or or policies, [54:59] there really isn't. You know, talking [55:01] about Gaza, talking about Iran, talking [55:03] about our our enemies abroad and the [55:06] security situation at home as well. I [55:07] really don't think there's too much of a [55:09] difference in in the way that they view [55:10] things. C [55:11] >> can I ask you something? Because because [55:13] when it comes to Iran, one of the things [55:15] that Netanyahu actually said in an [55:18] interview with with the Jerusalem Post, [55:20] he said that Trump won't get involved in [55:23] in another war with anyone but him. And [55:25] then also, we've got the Iranian [55:27] diaspora who are very much supporting of [55:29] Netanyahu. If you look at any uh post [55:32] from Netanyahu on social media, you see [55:35] huge amounts of support from uh the [55:37] Iranian diaspora and also Iranians in [55:40] Iran as well. So, I mean, What do you [55:43] think in terms of how uh the Iranian [55:48] diaspora are going to be seeing this, [55:49] but also how [55:51] true what Netanyahu said? I know there's [55:54] two questions there, but but it's two [55:56] very interesting points. [55:58] >> Absolutely. And I think first and [56:00] foremost, you know, we have to say if [56:02] Gaddy Eisenot is able to form a [56:04] government, if he's asked by President [56:06] Herzog to form a government and [56:08] succeeds, then we know that for the next [56:10] two years, like it or leave it, it'll [56:12] have to work with President Trump. And I [56:15] haven't particularly seen any [56:16] suggestions that the two will not work [56:18] well together or will not get along. [56:20] Obviously, Trump and Netanyahu have a [56:23] have a really strong relationship going [56:24] back years, you know, from the first [56:26] term. They work really really well [56:27] together and they obviously took it upon [56:29] themselves militarily to try and uh deal [56:32] with Iran as best as they could. With [56:34] regards to the Iranian diaspora, you [56:36] said it yourself, it's fascinating. They [56:38] obviously, many of them oppose the [56:41] Islamic Republic regime. They have [56:43] watched Israel and the US launch uh [56:45] military strikes against their country, [56:47] targeting leaders, targeting security um [56:50] officials. So obviously they are big [56:53] supporters of Netanyahu. They're big big [56:54] fans. they they really really do love [56:57] him. What they need to understand though [56:59] is obviously this is democracy in [57:01] action. It's a beautiful thing that [57:02] we're witnessing. And I think it's [57:04] important as well for them to understand [57:06] as we've said many many times here at [57:08] the post as well. It isn't just sort of [57:10] Netanyahu is alone fighting Iran. All of [57:13] the Israeli people and all of the Jewish [57:14] people all over the world stand with the [57:16] Iranian people. [57:18] >> So Mike, you were one of those reporters [57:20] covering uh the diaspora in the fallout [57:23] of October 7th. You mentioned earlier [57:25] that many of Israel's critics really [57:26] won't find much difference whether the [57:28] the head of state is is Netanyahu or [57:30] somehat someone else. Uh but let's say [57:32] it is somebody else. Um you know would [57:36] we expect you know we saw an explosion [57:37] of anti-semitism around the world uh [57:40] following the October 7th attacks and [57:41] and it you know it continued in 2024 [57:43] 2025 this year as well. um wi with a [57:46] different uh you know prime minister, [57:49] can you give us some sort of like [57:50] prediction about what we might see uh as [57:53] as different you know not just from uh [57:55] you know the public around the world but [57:57] also from like the leaders you know [57:58] leaders in Europe, leaders uh in the [58:00] Americas as well. [58:02] >> I I I I don't think that you'll see much [58:05] of a difference. You might see some of [58:07] the rhetoric uh die down a little bit [58:10] among certain leaders, but uh they [58:14] they've already uh made these decisions [58:17] regarding their Israel policy for often [58:19] for domestic reasons. You know, I don't [58:22] think you're going to see Emanuel [58:23] Mcronone take a vastly different [58:25] position on on Eisenhot than he did with [58:28] Netanyahu, especially at a time when he [58:31] has Palestinian flags waving over the [58:33] the ruins of uh of uh Paris streets. [58:37] Same thing with with the Labor Party [58:39] that's currently uh ruling the the UK. [58:43] you you when they're already in a [58:45] running gun battle with with the Green [58:47] Party for who can uh gather the most [58:50] votes from certain demographics, I don't [58:52] think that they're they're going to to [58:54] risk raising their their eye over that [58:56] that uh coveted demographic uh by by [59:01] starting to embrace Eisenhot. Uh so I [59:04] don't think you're going to see much [59:05] change when it comes to anti-semitism. [59:07] Anti-semmites have have always found a [59:09] reason to to hate Jews. It's it's often, [59:13] you know, lose-lose for the Jews or [59:16] win-win for the conspiracy theorists. Uh [59:18] they'll they'll come up with a reason [59:19] why Eisenhot is even worse than BB. Uh [59:23] he was a general uh he was a general [59:26] recently. Uh and they'll they [59:29] territories against terrorism. [59:30] >> Yeah, exactly. There there's there's not [59:32] going to be such a a dramatic shift. And [59:34] and I I think that uh you know if we if [59:38] we have one thing we we should recommend [59:40] to diaspora Jews is uh don't get your [59:42] hopes up with with a change. Uh I I know [59:45] it's it's it's addictive to to to have [59:48] that hope that with with a change [59:50] potentially anti-semitism could could [59:52] come down but uh and and your your [59:55] relationship with Israel you can be [59:58] you'd be more accepted for you to engage [60:00] with it. But I I don't think that's [60:01] going to be the case unless you guys [60:02] disagree. [60:04] U I I do want to actually change your [60:07] subject just slightly because one of the [60:08] big things uh that that people have been [60:10] asking when when you've been talking [60:12] about this election something that that [60:14] someone said to me the other day when [60:15] you were saying um you know the [60:17] elections are coming up and they go oh [60:18] yeah the midterms no hang on we've got [60:20] Israel first but the midterms are of [60:22] course coming up in the US um Gil to you [60:26] do you think there's going to be [60:29] expected endorsements the other way [60:31] round from Israel because we had from [60:33] Trump to Netanyahu. But do you think [60:35] we're going to see vice versa [60:37] in terms of in terms of who to vote for [60:39] and who to get involved with? [60:41] >> I think Israelis know that especially [60:44] now um with with all the anti-semitism [60:47] and all the insanity that that that the [60:51] quieter we are about these elections the [60:53] better. Um the big issue of course in [60:56] the American elections is in Michigan [60:58] the standard seat with Abdul Aliad and I [61:01] think it's important to make the [61:03] argument not just that it's bad for the [61:05] Jews that this guy would get in but it's [61:06] bad for the Democratic party and it's [61:08] bad for America because of not just his [61:10] ties to the Muslim Brotherhood but his [61:12] whole ideology and um American Jews many [61:16] of whom are obsessively anti-Trump are [61:19] caught because they want a Democratic [61:21] Congress to trump Trump if will to [61:24] eclipse Trump to check Trump. On the [61:26] other hand, um there are some very very [61:28] bad congressional candidates and very [61:30] very bad uh Senate candidates who not [61:32] only will hurt uh the Israel US [61:36] relationship, but also I think will hurt [61:37] the Democratic party in 2028 because if [61:39] I was a Republican, I'd be begging for [61:41] these people to uh be elected because [61:43] it'll make it so easy to run a campaign [61:45] against uh any Democrat because all you [61:46] have to say is where do you stand? Are [61:47] you going to denounce El Salad or are [61:49] you going to embrace the latest craziest [61:51] thing he tweeted out last night? um or [61:54] you know the Hassan issue. So it's [61:56] it's a it's a very complicated moment [61:57] for American a very very complicated [61:59] moment for American Jews. [62:01] >> Uh just a line of breaking news to bring [62:04] you uh that's just come into us is that [62:07] the party heads uh are expected to have [62:09] a strategy call in the next few minutes. [62:14] Uh we're also going to hear what they [62:16] might be expecting uh to talk about. Uh [62:19] but we have more people joining us in [62:21] the studio. Right, we have Sika Klein, [62:23] the editor-inchief. Uh, welcome, Sika. [62:25] >> Hey guys, how are you? [62:26] >> Good. Thank you. [62:27] >> Doing a good job here. [62:28] >> Thank you so much. [62:29] >> And the thousands of viewers. [62:31] >> We're doing we're doing okay. That that [62:33] that being said, by the way, uh if you [62:34] are watching us and you do see a comment [62:36] box on your screen, you can you can [62:38] indeed uh send us a message, send us [62:41] write us a question uh and we'll try and [62:43] get to it. Uh while we're on air, make [62:45] >> sure to like and share. [62:47] >> Absolutely. So, subscribe [62:49] >> and subscribe. Absolutely. [62:51] >> So, Sica, before being editor-in chief, [62:53] you were you were a diaspora reporter [62:55] for a long time, uh, with with these [62:58] midterms coming up, um, do you think [63:01] that, uh, the Israeli elections are [63:04] going to be fodder for for any, uh, for [63:07] any political uh, any politicians runs? [63:10] Um, we saw Gil talking a little bit, [63:12] Abdul sayed, you know, he's in a race [63:14] right now with Mike Rogers. uh do do you [63:17] expect um you know politicians in the US [63:19] to to make use of these Israeli [63:20] elections? Well, I mean, I think that [63:21] first of all, the historic number of [63:24] Arab party uh members, you know, [63:28] assumably elected to Knesset is a big [63:30] deal and I think, you know, from an [63:32] Israeli perspective, u you know, there [63:35] may be people in Israel who are not [63:36] happy about it from from an [63:37] international point of view, it's [63:39] actually a positive thing, you know, [63:41] showing the growth uh of of of Arabs in [63:45] the Israeli democracy. So, you know, [63:48] Elsa, who you know, is very obsessive [63:50] about what's going on here. I I think I [63:53] think us, you know, Israelis, we could [63:55] definitely use this as something to our [63:57] benefit. Um, but in general, I don't see [64:00] so much of that changing. I mean, other [64:02] than the fact that President Trump has [64:03] been endorsing candidates um and they're [64:06] all failing one after another. Um, uh, [64:10] the last being, uh, what was it? uh uh [64:14] uh Brazil, but even before that um uh [64:17] Hungary and Serbia. Yeah, exactly. So, I [64:20] mean, you it could be used that way. I [64:22] don't know if I would see direct uh uh [64:24] correlation there. And also because, you [64:26] know, in in in the US, we're talking [64:28] about local uh elections. It's a bit [64:31] less, you know, uh national or [64:33] international. [64:34] >> Sure. But I I there there is a point to [64:36] that because the the midterms could [64:38] potentially wreak havoc on on what's [64:40] going on here in this region because [64:42] let's say uh they end up I know this is [64:44] off topic from tonight slightly but it [64:46] is top of mind in the sense of if it [64:48] ends up in a situation where uh the [64:51] Democrats take both the House and the [64:53] Senate um Trump could be extremely [64:56] hampered with continuing any form of [64:59] military campaign here in the Middle [65:00] East. what what do you see happening if [65:03] that does indeed happen for for us in [65:06] this region? [65:06] >> Well, I think in general also, you know, [65:08] if if if the Democrats really uh become [65:11] a lot stronger, then for us Israelis, uh [65:16] it really emphasizes the very difficult [65:20] future, very near future that we're [65:22] expecting if a Democratic uh uh [65:26] president is elected. But even if it's [65:28] not a Democratic uh president, if if if [65:30] uh if someone like JD Vance is elected [65:32] as president, we're still in a very [65:35] complicated situation and we're not [65:37] going to be that, you know, little [65:39] sister of the United States anymore. [65:41] We'll be another country that has a [65:43] relationship or ties or or an alliance [65:46] with. Um but I think if you know moving [65:48] back to Israel I would say um many of [65:51] the reports pretty much are saying that [65:53] u Eisenkot is definitely going to be the [65:56] first one to meet with the president [65:58] president Herzog um and to try and form [66:01] their own government. They have enough [66:04] uh support. The Arab parties already [66:06] said that they would recommend uh uh the [66:09] change black uh uh representative there. [66:12] I think also another point interesting [66:14] is the Bennett Laid uh party um failed [66:19] at getting you know closer to Gotti [66:21] Eisenkot. And with with this this number [66:24] uh gap between the two parties, it [66:27] really uh you know emphasizes the fact [66:30] that Gotti Eisenkot will probably be [66:32] their candidate uh for you know for [66:36] trying to establish a government won't [66:39] be easy but they definitely have options [66:42] open. And and just uh while we're while [66:44] we're on air, um we can tell you that uh [66:46] Eisen Court has said that the exit polls [66:49] show an absolute lack of confidence [66:52] confidence rather in the Netanyahu [66:54] government, which is uh an interesting [66:56] line that we're reading there. [66:57] >> No, I think it's fascinating. [66:59] >> Yeah. [66:59] >> That he's the largest party. [67:02] >> It's just it's just amazing, you know, [67:05] uh [67:05] >> after polling consistently behind [67:07] >> 100%. Well, you know, Channel 14 has 11 [67:11] seat gap there. So, we'll have to see um [67:14] where that where that goes to. But um [67:17] yeah, I mean, everyone has him ahead, [67:20] which is kind of impressive, I have to [67:22] say. 77 years old and every [67:24] >> 100 years in in Israeli politics. [67:27] >> So, I imagine eyes are on the Israeli [67:30] election uh not just from uh friendly [67:32] countries, but also adversarial [67:34] countries. Uh Alex, if you're the [67:36] Ayatollah in Iran uh or the IRGC, [67:40] >> one day, one day, No, he's thinking of [67:43] being the sha to say [67:44] >> the sha. Sorry. So, if you're no, if [67:46] you're the leader of of the of Iran with [67:48] this current regime and and you're [67:50] you're watching uh these elections. Uh [67:53] what are you watching for? What's going [67:54] through your mind? It's a really good [67:56] question because obviously as we just [67:59] just talked about, you know, the the [68:02] image of Netanyahu uh against the [68:04] Iranians, you know, for 20 years he's [68:06] been going on about the Iranian threat [68:07] when very few people were talking about [68:09] the Iranian threat to Israel and [68:11] Israelis. He stood up at the UN [68:12] obviously with his famous uh bomb [68:14] sketch. So, you know, it kind of looked [68:16] like at times that this guy was on a a [68:19] lone crusade against Iran. We've [68:21] obviously seen the situation change. Um, [68:24] I think if I was sitting in Iran now on [68:27] the side of the regime, I would still be [68:29] worried. I would still be exceedingly [68:31] worried. I don't think, as I mentioned, [68:33] Eisenkot is radically different from [68:35] Netanyahu in the way that he wants to [68:37] deal with Iran. Maybe maybe Netanyahu [68:39] and Trump slightly more gung-ho, out of [68:42] the box. You never know quite what [68:44] you're going to get. But if I was [68:47] sitting there in Thran right now, I [68:49] would still be exceedingly worried [68:50] because we know that the mission isn't [68:52] finished. We know that there's still [68:54] work to be done. And I think as we [68:57] mentioned before as well, the fact that [68:59] both Eisenot and both Netanyahu, they're [69:01] on the same side um politically in terms [69:04] of right-wing and dealing with Israel's [69:07] enemies. This is a former head of the [69:09] IDF. So I don't think anything on that [69:12] sense is going to change in the short [69:14] term as we as Gil and Sica mentioned [69:16] talked about the the midterms and how [69:19] that may affect any military action on [69:20] Iran. Obviously that can impact things [69:23] slightly but the bigger picture [69:26] we're still we still have the same [69:28] mission and the mission is yet to be [69:29] completed. I'd like to add as well if I [69:31] may. Sure. I think it's really [69:33] interesting that the the past few [69:35] elections have been sort of obviously [69:38] focused around Netanyahu, but we saw [69:40] last time when the Arab parties joined [69:41] the Bennett Laid government, it really [69:44] was the whole campaign was anybody but [69:47] BB. We'll sit with anybody and anything [69:50] as long as BB is out. And that slightly [69:52] changed this election. Obviously many [69:55] well many many people obviously millions [69:57] across the country still hold Netanyahu [69:59] responsible uh or accountable for [70:02] October 7th the wars that have followed [70:04] and the thousands of Israelis who have [70:05] lost their lives. No question about [70:07] that. But the fact that many of the [70:09] parties who are challenging him have [70:12] refused or ruled out potentially sitting [70:15] with Arab parties is really really [70:16] interesting and congratulations to the [70:18] Arab parties for getting uh potentially [70:20] the highest ever number of mandates. [70:22] It's it's a fantastic achievement and a [70:24] true sign of democracy. But the fact [70:26] that last time it was anybody but BB and [70:29] this time it's a bit more nuanced is [70:30] also a really really really interesting [70:32] aspect to me. [70:33] >> Um just one one update here is that [70:36] channel 12 uh exit poll updated their [70:39] data um with the Democrats going up to [70:42] 10 seats um and Israel Betenu going up [70:46] to eight. Um so that's definitely [70:49] interesting. What do what do you think [70:51] that does to the election math? I mean, [70:52] that that that's that's a change. And [70:54] and what do you think that that does to [70:56] to the path uh to 61 for for both sides [70:59] at this point? [71:00] >> Well, I mean, Lieberman Lieberman and [71:01] Bennett, you know, again, according to [71:03] reports, have some sort of agreement uh [71:05] between each other um to run to try and [71:09] in bypass Eisenkot and be the ones uh [71:12] representing uh the opposition uh to try [71:16] and form a government. and the the [71:18] stronger uh you know both both Bennett [71:22] and uh Lieberman become if they get [71:25] closer to the 20some seats that Eisenko [71:27] gets, it could put them in a situation [71:30] where they, you know, pull a joker card [71:33] out and say, you know, we actually want [71:36] to be uh the ones who who try and form [71:38] the government. [71:40] Um so on top of like those gains we're [71:43] seeing on on the the channel 12 uh exit [71:45] polls um you know across you know con 11 [71:49] channel 12 13 and channel 15 we're [71:51] seeing between 16 and 18 uh Knesset [71:54] seats for the Arab majority parties that [71:57] you know is is huge and in the polls in [72:00] the polls they were getting uh except [72:03] for channel 13 they were getting up to [72:05] 14 seats channel 13 gave them 16 seats [72:08] so nobody was really, you know, [72:11] grasping, [72:11] >> right? They they c they certainly [72:13] outperformed. Uh but but now what we're [72:15] seeing with these polls, uh can we [72:16] expect demands uh for agreeing to to uh [72:19] you know, for agreeing to abstaining um [72:22] >> for that for that minority government [72:23] >> for that minority government so that the [72:25] opposition could uh could could form [72:26] that. [72:28] >> Uh speaker, what do you think? [72:30] >> Sorry, I missed that question. [72:32] >> No problem. No, but so so wait, hang on. [72:33] We've seen I can step in if you want. Go [72:35] ahead. [72:36] >> So first, look, it's politics, right? [72:38] And um this isn't uh this isn't [72:42] Halloween with trick-or- treat and you [72:43] and and and you give out candy. This is [72:45] going to be hardedged politics. And I [72:47] think the Arab parties have very good [72:49] reasons to make certain demands. I mean [72:51] the if you look at the issue of Arab [72:53] crime and by the way Arab crime and the [72:55] Arab murder rate doesn't just hurt [72:56] Arabs, it hurts Jews as well, it hurts [72:57] everybody in the society. and uh and the [73:00] fact that under the Bennett Laid [73:01] government um whether you like them or [73:03] or hated them, they had a strategy which [73:05] was both uh incentives and also pressure [73:07] on the uh on the Arab communities and on [73:09] the Arab mafias and lo and behold the [73:11] murder rate went down and then in the [73:13] last 3 years it's jumped 70%. So I think [73:16] that and one of the interesting things [73:17] about Ram is that they've then been a [73:19] party which have unlike so many Arabs in [73:22] Knesset have been less ideological and [73:24] more pragmatic and said what do we need [73:26] and I also want to connect [73:27] >> even though they're religious [73:29] >> it's fasplain that [73:30] >> so this is you know a lot of it has to [73:32] do with the fact that he's a dentist [73:34] >> okay [73:34] >> this is my this is my theory I have a [73:36] friend I have friends who work with the [73:37] Arab community and they say that when [73:38] they work with Arab politicians and Arab [73:40] mayors who went to Hebrew University and [73:42] Tel Aviv University and studied [73:43] anthropology and studied humanities [73:45] instead of the sciences science the the [73:46] social sciences they come out spewing [73:49] ideological hatred against Israel [73:51] >> but if you speak to if you work with [73:52] people who are dentists doctors [73:54] accountants people in much more [73:56] pragmatic professions they want to get [73:57] things done [73:58] >> right well Ahmed is also [74:00] >> and and and there there's so there's a [74:02] kind of there's a tension also within [74:04] the Arab world and we've also seen that [74:05] mayors tend to be much more pragmatic [74:06] than Knesset members because Knesset [74:08] members come and they just you know spew [74:10] poison and the fascinating thing about [74:11] Bos and Rome was he was the first [74:13] Knesset member among the who said wait a [74:15] minute this isn't working right we're [74:17] just making we're just undermining [74:18] undermining our own power undermining [74:20] our our own standing and let's do [74:22] something and I also want to say that um [74:24] it's important to emphasize that [74:26] especially after 2021 in May 2021 where [74:29] there was so much uh violence in Ako in [74:32] L in mixed Arab cities on October 8th [74:35] there were so many people who were so [74:36] worried about Israeli Arabs and how they [74:37] would behave and Israeli Arabs were [74:39] humiliated by their fellow Arabs they [74:41] were embarrassed by the barbarism of [74:43] Hamas and I think Over the last couple [74:44] of years, we've seen a maturity in the [74:46] Israeli Arab community which we should [74:48] acknowledge and [74:50] >> in a sense of of Israel [74:51] >> of Israelis of Israelis of patriotism of [74:53] of of civility. Um that that that that [74:57] is hopefully now going to be rewarded. [75:00] But also just to go back to the question [75:01] about Iran, if I'm the Ayatollah, I'm [75:03] also saying, "Wow, we came really close [75:05] to destroying them on October 7th and [75:07] look what happened on October 27th." the [75:10] the maturity that we've seen, the fact [75:12] that we're all sitting here talking [75:13] about democracy and we're talking about [75:14] how's it going to work out, the fact [75:16] that you're going to have 15, 16, 17 [75:17] Arab states now, Arab states in the [75:20] Knesset. Yes. Unfortunately, too many of [75:23] my former colleagues in university. Too [75:24] many Westerners will refuse to see the [75:27] strength and the resilience and the [75:29] power of Israeli society that we've seen [75:30] today. But our enemies see it, [75:33] >> but they never acknowledge it. And I [75:35] think this is a really bad day for them [75:36] because it's been a really good day for [75:37] Israel and the Jewish people. Uh Ezra [75:39] and Sam, another update. Channel 13, [75:41] Bennett goes down to 13 seats. Um and [75:45] the joint list goes up to 11 seats, [75:48] which uh is very dramatic there. And [75:50] that changed the math 100%. And Shaz is [75:53] according to 13 is at six seats, which [75:56] is very low for for the you know, with [75:59] their demographic, you know, and their [76:00] their um growing population, they're [76:04] they're actually becoming smaller than [76:05] they are at the moment. So I I want to [76:07] jump off a little bit more on you know [76:08] the the the growing um Arab [76:10] participation in Israeli democracy. U [76:13] few months ago we saw a poll from uh the [76:16] Tel Aviv uh university showing that uh [76:18] you know uh one of the questions they [76:21] asked was you know what is your primary [76:23] identity and and one of those options [76:24] was Israeli. Uh we saw among at least uh [76:27] Arab Christians that Israeli uh that [76:29] Israeli was their number one identity. [76:31] we seem to see like even if gradually [76:33] across you know the the Arab sector [76:34] that's you know a greater participation [76:36] in in Israeliness. Uh but I want to talk [76:39] about a little bit about the problems [76:41] that uh Arab societyy's facing. We've [76:44] seen uh violence across the the Arab [76:45] sector. We talked about a little bit um [76:47] you know the last couple years have seen [76:49] uh murders in the in the Arab society go [76:52] up. Um, how to what extent is is [76:56] security in in Arab society driving [76:59] participation in this uh this sorry this [77:01] particular issue of of uh violence in [77:04] the in the Arab sector driving Arab [77:06] participation in these elections. I [77:08] >> I mean Benir is just literally the best [77:11] campaign manager for the Arab parties. [77:13] Um he got them all out to vote. Um it's [77:16] it's not only his rhetoric, it's also [77:18] just the fact that you know, as you [77:20] said, the crime rates are are are [77:21] surging. Um and you know, many of them [77:25] just want uh some sort of uh normal [77:28] lives and and and police, you know, [77:30] there are certain uh communities or [77:33] cities where the police is afraid to go [77:34] into call zone. So we're used to saying [77:37] that about France, but there are places [77:39] in Israel that the police uh refrains [77:41] from going into. So I think that's [77:43] definitely um something that caused this [77:46] and uh you know we'll see as the night [77:48] goes on but in certain some of the polls [77:50] are talking about 19 seats that's a big [77:52] deal. [77:53] >> Yeah. So let's sit with the [77:54] contradictions, right? We're talking [77:55] about an Israeli society which on the [77:56] one hand has allowed a certain kind of [77:58] bigotry that had been previously [78:00] unacceptable. The mainstreaming of [78:01] Bengavir, what I said earlier about how [78:03] BB in 2015 apologized for his anti-Arab [78:06] rhetoric and I'm not expecting an [78:07] apology now. And at the same time, we're [78:08] seeing an emergence of the Arabs of of [78:10] Arab society. And the problem with the [78:12] discussion about Israel outside is no [78:14] one ever sits with the contradictions, [78:16] >> right? And I think one of the strengths [78:17] you've brought as the editor-in chief of [78:18] the of the Jerusalem Post is you sip [78:19] with the contradictions and you don't [78:20] love a country because it's perfect. you [78:22] love a country because you can see that [78:24] the strengths can be built on and the [78:26] weaknesses can ultimately be defeated. [78:27] And so I I it'll be interesting to see [78:29] how the outside press decides to play [78:32] this game um and and what they can [78:35] cherrypick, right? We definitely there [78:36] are definitely headlines they can emerge [78:38] about, you know, the the BB strength and [78:40] and Benur strength that'll make them [78:43] delighted, but it'll miss the complexity [78:45] and the richness and the paradoxes of [78:47] Israeli society. [78:48] >> Yeah, I think I I agree totally. Um, [78:51] joining us in student studio now is uh, [78:53] Gula Daphnner, who is uh, well known to [78:56] to some people at the Jerusalem Post, [78:58] writes opeds for us uh, too. Um, you're [79:01] a uh, a firsttime voter I believe. Um, [79:06] can you [79:07] >> Thank you. I wanted to say Jacanu. I [79:09] wasn't sure if I was allowed to. [79:11] >> Of course you can. Let's do it. [79:12] >> I didn't want to buckle so I decided [79:14] against it. [79:15] >> Okay. [79:15] >> But but I mean it's interesting because [79:17] I mean you've come into this country. [79:19] you've sort of been faced with the the [79:21] chance to vote firstly learning how this [79:23] system works and secondly then deciding [79:25] who to vote for and can you take us a [79:28] little bit on on like what your journey [79:30] was because I think it would be [79:32] interesting for people who who you've [79:34] just got here you've had to go through [79:35] this process tell us [79:38] >> it's been honestly so confusing so I'm [79:40] an American citizen and I'm also an [79:42] Israeli citizen I made aliyah a week [79:44] before October 7th [79:46] >> so like even in my body right now this [79:47] country feels a little bit chaotic and [79:49] my body's like remembering chaos and I'm [79:51] like okay it's safe it's just elections [79:52] just elections chaos everything's good [79:55] um but I moved to Israel a week before [79:57] October 7th and then I enlisted in the [79:59] IDF and while I was in the IDF I [80:01] actually had to do I was a biomedical [80:03] engineer in the IDF my unit reduced [80:04] casualties by 50% in this war thank god [80:07] >> and while I was a biomeical engineer in [80:09] the IDF with my Columbia engineering [80:11] degree trying to save lives I was called [80:12] to do guard duty multiple times for the [80:15] karedi protest at Tellesome [80:17] and I knew very important people in the [80:19] Israeli army, including my commanders, [80:21] including doctors that couldn't get to [80:23] work and couldn't get to base because of [80:24] the Karedi protest. [80:25] >> Wow. [80:26] >> And so coming into this election cycle, [80:28] the first election cycle that I've ever [80:30] participated in, and my dad's Israeli, [80:32] so my great-grandfather was invited by [80:33] Herzel to settle the land of Israel, he [80:35] was Bengorian's doctor. [80:36] >> So for me, I'm continuing a legacy that [80:40] um is far older than me and greater than [80:42] me and one that I feel privileged to [80:44] partake in. And for me, I'm also an [80:46] influencer with um almost 90,000 [80:49] followers. [80:50] >> So I felt that I had a duty to really [80:53] understand this process not only for for [80:56] Jews in this country, but I think [80:57] diaspora in many ways is associating any [80:59] criticism of BB with anti-semitism. And [81:03] diaspora jury doesn't know how to [81:06] disagregate criticism of BB with how the [81:10] actual Israeli public feels. Mhm. [81:13] >> And so I felt like I actually had a [81:14] duty. So I was invited to speak to Yayer [81:18] Golan. I was invited to speak to Noam [81:19] Tibon. And after speaking to many [81:22] candidates, I kind of updated my [81:23] followers throughout the journey. And it [81:25] was it was very confusing, but it was [81:27] also very rewarding, [81:28] >> right? You know, Yer Golan, I think, is [81:30] is a both of them, by the way. Yay Gulan [81:33] and Noam T-Bone both, you know, in their [81:36] 60s, I would assume, something like [81:38] that. picked themselves up on October [81:40] 7th, ran down to the south. No one's son [81:44] was there, Amir, and his children, his [81:46] wife and children, um, and fought. But [81:49] now during a political campaign, there [81:51] were those that said, "Oh, he made this [81:53] up." [81:53] >> Well, that that's what was so [81:55] frustrating to me. [81:56] >> Stupid thing. [81:57] >> I'm sorry. That was what was so [81:58] frustrating to me is I posed the Argolan [82:00] because my friend Alana Lindsay said, "I [82:01] really want you to meet him." Her [82:03] family, five of her family members were [82:04] taken hostage on October 7th. And I I [82:08] was like, "Wow, this is a war hero. [82:09] Like, of course, I'm going to share his [82:10] story." And then people call me a [82:11] leftist and a traitor. [82:13] >> And I wasn't saying I was even voting [82:14] for him. [82:15] >> I was just saying, "Wow, like the people [82:17] running for our what a privilege to be [82:19] in a nation where I met two people [82:22] running for KASA that save lives on [82:24] October 7th." [82:25] >> And and and I I just asked my followers, [82:27] what did what did BB Netanyahu do on [82:29] October 7th? [82:30] >> And immediately I was called a traitor, [82:32] right? Which is [82:32] >> and a leftwinger and a Yeah. a Kaplan. [82:36] activists. [82:37] >> Well, I just don't understand because BB [82:38] Netanyahu's government is is bound to [82:41] make a coalition with the Kharedim who [82:42] don't want to serve in the IDF. [82:44] >> Just just to just interrupt you for just [82:46] a moment, a line of breaking news to [82:48] bring you is that uh the vote count has [82:50] begun. So, while you are looking at exit [82:52] polls uh numbers on the screen, uh [82:55] hopefully sooner rather than later,
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