Transcript [00:00] So, here's something that is not news. [00:02] Lebanon is a mess. Now, in this video, [00:06] we're going to update you on what's [00:07] going on in Lebanon. I'm going to give [00:08] you the punchline first. Here's where we [00:11] are. The Lebanese people increasingly [00:13] are fed up withah bringing destruction [00:17] on them and they want to get rid of [00:18] them, but they're not actually willing [00:21] to do anything about it. The Lebanese [00:23] government makes noises about wanting to [00:25] get rid of, but they're not actually [00:27] willing to do anything about it. Arab [00:29] countries say they want to get rid ofah, [00:31] but they're not actually willing to do [00:33] anything about it. Everyone makes noises [00:35] about wanting to get rid of, but no [00:37] one's actually willing to do anything [00:38] about it, except the Israelis. And then [00:40] when the Israelis do something about it, [00:41] everyone complains. Well, there's more [00:44] to it than that. Let's get into the [00:46] update. Let's start with the headline [00:47] from today. Nabatia call for army [00:50] deployment challenges grip on the south. [00:53] Now, Nabatia is a is the is the city [00:58] right near Ali Taher. Ali Taher is the [01:01] famous ridge that has the headquarters [01:04] that was just seized by the Israelis. [01:05] The fa, you know, that that's what we've [01:07] been talking about for the last little [01:08] while. If you don't know what Ali Taher [01:10] is, go watch some of the recent videos [01:11] about Lebanon. Uh, but suffice it to [01:14] say, it's the main nerve center of South [01:17] Lebanon. Israel has recently seized it. [01:19] Big tunnel network underneath and [01:21] they're clearing it out. Nabati is right [01:23] nearby. A lot of stuff going on there. [01:26] Israel has been hitting that area, [01:28] hitting uh Israel's been hitting the [01:31] infrastructure in that area. And uh and [01:34] then the people in Nabatia are now [01:36] calling on the Lebanese army to come in [01:38] and take over the area. Let's get into [01:41] the into the details here. There's some [01:42] interesting stuff in this buried in the [01:44] story. More than 400 Lebanese public [01:47] figures have signed the second Nabatia [01:49] appeal, calling for the immediate [01:51] deployment of the Lebanese army in one [01:54] of southern Lebanon's traditionaliz [01:56] strongholds and describing the group as [01:59] a de facto power. The signitories [02:01] include doctors, engineers, lawyers, [02:03] bankers, journalists, academics, [02:05] writers, and activists. They called on [02:08] the Lebanese armed forces and security [02:10] forces to deploy in and around Nabatia [02:13] and urged the state to assume full [02:14] security and administrative [02:16] responsibility for the city under the [02:17] banner save the capital of Jabal Aml and [02:20] its historic center. The timing of the [02:23] appeal is significant. Nabatia has been [02:25] under pressure from continued Israeli [02:27] military operations in southern Lebanon [02:29] while the Lebanese government is [02:30] pursuing a broader effort to place [02:32] weapons exclusively under state [02:34] authority. Not really, but that's what [02:36] we all have to claim they're doing. [02:38] Its significance lies not only in the [02:42] number of signitories, but also in where [02:44] the call originated. H. Now, let's [02:47] understand more about Nabatia. Nabatia [02:49] has traditionally been closely [02:51] associated withah's political, social, [02:54] and security presence. It is a Shiitebah [02:57] stronghold. But the people there, not [03:00] all the Shiites arebah, and they're kind [03:03] of sick ofbah. and it makes the demand [03:05] for a stronger state role particularly [03:07] sensitive. The description of as a de [03:11] facto power is at the heart of the [03:13] appeal. It portrays the group not simply [03:15] as a political movement or military [03:17] organization but as a force with the [03:19] ability to impose arrangements on the [03:21] ground while the Lebanese state seeks to [03:24] restore its exclusive authority over [03:27] security and military decisions. That [03:29] puts Nabatia at the center of a wider [03:32] Lebanese question. Whether the state can [03:36] gradually reestablish its authority in [03:38] areas wherebalah [03:41] the party of Allah has for decades [03:43] played a major role in security, [03:46] politics, services and public life. The [03:48] issue was not the removal of from [03:50] Lebanese public life. The group remains [03:53] represented in parliament and government [03:54] and retains substantial social and [03:57] political support. The dispute is [03:59] increasingly focused on separating that [04:01] political role from the possession of an [04:03] armed and security apparatus outside [04:06] direct state control. The appeal does [04:09] not necessarily signal a wholesale [04:11] rejection of among residents of southern [04:14] Lebanon, but it does indicate that [04:16] voices from within its traditional [04:18] sphere of influence are increasingly [04:20] calling for a stronger state presence. [04:22] Kisbala is now facing simultaneous [04:24] pressure on several fronts. Israeli [04:26] military operations are narrowing its [04:28] room for maneuver in the south. The [04:30] Lebanese government is pushing to place [04:32] weapons under state control and local [04:34] figures, that's what this story is [04:36] about. Local figures in one of its [04:38] traditional strongholds are demanding a [04:40] greater role for the state. So there's [04:42] pressure on the Lebanese state to [04:44] actually put their money where their [04:45] mouth is and they're saying we're going [04:47] to step in and we're going to take [04:48] control. Well, go ahead and do it right. [04:52] Like right here, [04:55] Lebanese, this is also from today. [04:57] Lebanese president calls for states [04:59] return to south amid Israeli attacks. [05:01] You're the president. Do it. Lebanese [05:03] president Joseph Aun said Thursday that [05:05] the time has come for the state to [05:07] return to the south as as Israeli [05:09] attacks continue in the region. He said [05:12] the presidency had listened to appeals [05:14] from the residents of Nabatia, Tyra and [05:16] Arab Salim, stressing that the state [05:19] stands with them. we can only make every [05:21] possible effort to remain by your side, [05:22] help you and blah blah blah. He [05:24] described the south as an essential part [05:26] of Lebanon like we haven't abandoned [05:28] you. The time has come for the state to [05:31] return to the south. This is our [05:32] collective responsibility and our duty [05:34] toward our people. He's saying all the [05:35] right things. Aoon urged all government [05:38] ministries to provide support to [05:40] residents of southern Lebanon. Very [05:43] nice. We're going to go back into [05:44] southern Lebanon. The only problem is [05:45] they're not actually willing to do it. [05:49] You know, I'm going to do this early in [05:50] this video. Now, before I go on, I want [05:52] to remind you about a very important [05:54] webinar we're having on Monday. It's [05:56] been 25 years since 911. I know it's a [05:58] little awkward that the picture of there [05:59] has me smiling, but that's the photo we [06:00] had on file. Um, it's been 25 years [06:04] since 911, and we're going to be doing a [06:06] retrospective on it, really uh talking [06:08] about where we are 25 years after that [06:10] faithful day, and we're going to be [06:12] hearing three testimonials and analysis [06:15] from three people who experienced it [06:17] very differently. We have Frank Gaffffne [06:19] who was uh he's a veteran of the defense [06:22] and security policy space in Washington [06:24] DC and was one of the public figures [06:28] raising the alarm about Islamic [06:29] terrorism long before 9/11, long before [06:32] other people were talking about it. He [06:34] was called crazy for it and he [06:36] experienced 911 in a very unique way and [06:38] he's and uh he's the host of Securing [06:40] America on Real America's Voice. He's [06:42] the president of the Institute for the [06:44] American Future and uh it'll be great to [06:47] have Frank there. And Dan Baui who is a [06:50] former Muslim, he's now a Christian [06:52] living in America and he is the founder [06:55] and director of the ideological defense [06:57] institute. He's an author, great uh [07:00] great thinker and uh he was he was a [07:03] Muslim at the time. He was a Muslim [07:04] living in Jordan where he grew up [07:08] at the time of 9/11 and he experienced [07:10] it that way. And we also have Jeffrey [07:12] Morgan Stern whose sister Nancy is one [07:15] of the victims of 911. He was killed on [07:17] that day and he's going to share his [07:19] testimonial. It's going to be a riveting [07:21] webinar. So you want to sign up for [07:23] this. You want to register. Uh it will [07:25] it will be taking place live at 2 p.m. [07:27] Eastern time on Monday 900 p.m. in [07:30] Israel. But even if you can't make it [07:32] live, if you register, and it's free to [07:34] do so. If you register, you will receive [07:36] an email automatically after it airs. [07:39] After the live webinar, you'll receive [07:41] an email uh with a link to watch the [07:43] whole thing. So, it doesn't matter if [07:44] you can make it or not, but make sure [07:46] that you're signed up for it. Again, [07:47] it's free of charge. And you can sign up [07:49] by clicking the link in the description [07:50] of this video. That's uh it's Israel [07:53] 365911 [07:55] like 911. Or you can uh scan the QR code [07:58] that's on your screen and that uh and [08:02] and that's another way you can register. [08:03] So, make sure to do that. That's this [08:04] coming Monday. You don't want to miss [08:06] the webinar. Now, let's get back to the [08:09] the news that we are that we're covering [08:12] here from Lebanon and this whole [08:14] complicated situation here. [08:18] So, how Israel's operation on Lebanon's [08:21] Ali Taher Ridge could complicate the [08:25] USbacked talks. This is from Arab News. [08:28] So, they're always like criticizing [08:31] Israel but trying to be very analytical [08:33] about it. Israel's declaration last week [08:35] that it had seized the strategically [08:38] important Ali Taher Ridge in southern [08:40] Lebanon from could be the latest setback [08:43] for a Lebanese government trying to [08:45] demonstrate that it can provide security [08:47] without the group's arsenal. Analysts [08:49] say so what have we seen so far? We've [08:51] seen that the people of Nabatia are [08:53] begging the government to step in even [08:56] though this is a stronghold. They're [08:58] Shiites. They want the government to to [09:00] finally take control. They don't want [09:03] destroying their lives anymore by [09:04] provoking the Israelis. Meanwhile, the [09:07] Lebanese president then, you know, [09:09] mouths all the right things. Yes, we are [09:11] going to, you know, the state's going to [09:12] seize control again for sure, right? And [09:15] now [09:17] they have a problem. You see, Israel's [09:20] operation has been underway for weeks. [09:22] The military says maintained a tunnel [09:25] network beneath the ridge that included [09:26] command rooms, weapons depots, living [09:28] quarters, etc. But despite Israel's [09:30] assertion that it controls the area, [09:31] military activity and air strikes have [09:33] continued. The framework told us where [09:36] the Americans, Lebanese, and Israelis [09:38] want to end up. Fadi Nicholas Nasar, [09:40] senior fellow at the Middle East [09:42] Institute, told Arab News, Ali Taher [09:44] reminded us that they still haven't [09:46] solved how to get there. At the heart of [09:49] the problem is Lebanese inaction on [09:52] disarming [09:53] and the question of what it will finally [09:55] take to overcome it. That's the [09:57] sentence. That's the whole that's the [09:59] whole story right there. At the heart of [10:01] the problem is Lebanese inaction in [10:04] disarming. [10:06] What can they do to overcome it? You [10:08] know, in other words, this whole [10:09] arrangement, the official thing is that, [10:10] okay, Israel is is, you know, degrading, [10:13] but Israel is going to withdraw and the [10:14] Lebanese government is going to come in [10:15] and they're going to get rid of weapons, [10:17] but they're going to do it in a way that [10:19] doesn't cause a civil war, but they're [10:20] going to assert themselves. They're [10:22] going to assert Lebanese sovereignty and [10:23] finally get out from under the clutches [10:25] of But they're just not willing to do [10:27] anything. They don't have the ability [10:28] to. When are they going to assert [10:30] themselves and can they? He said [10:33] proposed pilot zones, areas in which the [10:36] Lebanese state would assume greater [10:38] security control [10:41] are quote designed to make disarmament [10:44] achievable while containing the fallout [10:46] of any confrontation between the [10:49] Lebanese state. That's not really [10:51] achievable. [10:53] Is not going to lay down their weapons. [10:54] Never mind. It is another example of it. [10:57] Now, here we have another statement [10:58] here. Look, this is from this guy [11:00] Timothy Kaldas who deputy director of [11:02] the Tahir Institute for Middle East [11:03] policy. It's another example of Israel [11:06] taking actions that undermine the [11:08] credibility of the Lebanese government [11:10] and weaken its ability to pursue the [11:12] political process required to disarm [11:13] Kisbala. [11:15] Lebanon's government has committed [11:17] itself to establishing a monopoly on [11:20] arms and disarming. to carry out that [11:22] policy. However, it must persuade [11:24] Lebanese citizens that it can safeguard [11:26] the country's sovereignty and security. [11:29] I'm going to read a little bit more and [11:30] then I'll explain what what we're [11:32] talking about here. When Lebanon engages [11:34] in direct talks with Israel, historic [11:37] talks and makes these commitments, but [11:39] Israel with responds by expanding the [11:41] territory it controls in Lebanon rather [11:43] than pursuing the withdrawal the [11:45] trilateral framework is meant to [11:47] facilitate. It undermines the Lebanese [11:49] government's credibility in the eyes of [11:51] its people. The credibility gap gives a [11:54] ready-made political argument. It makes [11:56] it easier for to say, "See, Israel would [11:59] never withdraw, so you need us." Rather [12:02] than eroding's justification for keeping [12:05] its weapons, he said Israeli action [12:07] around the ridge could reinforce it. [12:10] This is a very interesting conundrum. [12:12] You see, everyone here here's what [12:15] everyone's interests are. The Lebanese [12:18] government wants to assert control, but [12:21] they can't. [12:23] because they can't. [12:26] The Israelis [12:28] say, "All right, we're if you're not [12:30] going to do anything about, we will." [12:33] And the Israelis, you know, they strike. [12:35] They degrade their infrastructure. They [12:36] hunt them down. That they they do the [12:39] actions to remove the the threat which [12:42] is designed to attack Israel. They're [12:44] going to def Israel is going to defend [12:45] its its interest. Israel is going to [12:46] defend itself. But what's the problem? [12:50] the [12:52] the Lebanese people [12:56] are told byah, look, we protect you. [13:01] We're the only ones who can protect you [13:03] from the Israelis. Now, that's kind of [13:05] absurd considering that they bring all [13:06] the all the destruction on them, which a [13:09] lot more and more of them are waking up [13:10] to, which is why you have things like [13:12] this Nabatia declaration. [13:14] But [13:16] so long asbah can point to the Lebanese [13:18] government and say, "Look, you don't [13:19] have the ability to get the Israelis to [13:21] withdraw, you don't have the ability to [13:23] get to the to get the Israelis to back [13:25] off." [13:27] It makes the Lebanese government look [13:28] even weaker. So when Israel hits, the [13:31] Lebanese government looks even weaker, [13:33] and that makes it even less likely that [13:35] they're going to ever be able to seize [13:37] control of the area and and and disarm. [13:41] Not that they would ever really disarm [13:42] them anyway, but that's the that's the [13:44] kind of psychological cycle here. You [13:45] see, the Lebanese people, I interviewed [13:47] on the Israel 365 news channel a few [13:49] weeks ago. I interviewed a uh an Iran [13:52] expert from the Foundation for Defense [13:53] of Democracies who I'm sorry, a Lebanon [13:55] expert from the Foundation of Defense of [13:57] Democracies, who himself is Lebanese. [14:01] And he was talking about this. He was [14:02] saying, "Look, you have to understand [14:03] the Lebanese people are educated to [14:07] believe that the Israelis are [14:08] expansionist and want to take their land [14:10] and that every time the Israelis come in [14:12] over the decades and take a piece of [14:14] Lebanon, the Lebanese people are [14:16] conditioned to believe that Israel has [14:18] territorial designs to seize Lebanon and [14:21] conquer it." Now, Israel does go into [14:23] Lebanon and seize territory, but it's [14:25] only for the sake of protecting its own [14:28] defense and and and clearing out these [14:31] these uh these terrorists who are [14:34] entrenched in South Lebanon and [14:36] attacking Israel, but that doesn't [14:38] change the psychology of it. So, that [14:40] ends up having a domestic effect because [14:43] Israel's in there. The Lebanese people [14:44] say, "Oh, wow. Here's the Israelis [14:46] taking our territory." The Lebanese [14:48] government is impotent to do anything [14:49] about it. Andah then points to the [14:52] Lebanese points to the Lebanese [14:54] government looking at the people and [14:56] says they're not going to get the [14:57] Israelis to withdraw and you want us to [14:59] lay down our weapons. [15:01] So the more Israel attack but Israel is [15:04] still going to look out for its [15:05] interest. Look, it's not Israel's [15:06] problem what the domestic issues are. [15:08] Israel has to look out for its best [15:10] interest. I'm not saying that Israel [15:11] should behave any differently. I'm just [15:13] saying that it there is this this uh [15:18] this these diminishing returns [15:21] domestically for the Lebanese government [15:23] if the goal if the goal is I'm not even [15:26] sure it is if the goal is to strengthen [15:28] the Lebanese government's ability to [15:30] take their sovereignty back. It is true [15:32] that that the Israelis taking matters [15:34] into their own hands and attacking [15:37] in the short term until is completely [15:39] gone which they may never be uh it does [15:42] not help the Lebanese government assert [15:45] itself. Okay, there's more in this. Uh [15:49] no, that's it. That's it for this piece. [15:50] Okay, so [15:53] while that is going on, we have the rest [15:55] of the Arab world also making noises [15:57] about wanting to get rid of. Everyone [15:59] officially says they want to get rid [16:00] ofah. Arab League, this is from [16:03] yesterday. Arab League adopts a [16:05] resolution rejecting military activities [16:08] in Lebanon. That's very nice. They [16:09] adopted a resolution. Adopting a [16:12] resolution. Oh, that's that solves [16:13] nothing. The Arab League Council adopted [16:16] a resolution on Monday, a few days ago, [16:19] affirming solidarity with Lebanon and [16:21] rejecting Iranian influence and [16:24] continued military activities. According [16:25] to an exclusive report published by [16:27] Laurian Lejour on Tuesday, the council [16:31] reportedly adopted the resolution based [16:33] on a draft Beirut previously submitted [16:36] affirming its full support for Lebanese [16:38] independence and sovereignty. So here's [16:39] Joseph Aun. Here's the Lebanese [16:41] government submitting this draft to the [16:42] Arab League to get them all to declare [16:44] that they support the Lebanese [16:46] government and asserting its sovereignty [16:47] and getting rid of Kisbala. Very nice. [16:50] It also expressed a collective support [16:51] for Beirut's decision to establish a [16:53] state monopoly over weapons and security [16:56] decisions, referencing the government's [16:58] March decision to require that all [17:00] weapons be held exclusively by [17:01] legitimate authorities and banisbah from [17:04] military activity. They're very good at [17:06] at passing the right resolutions and [17:07] passing the right laws. Notably, the [17:09] council reportedly also rejected foreign [17:12] interference, particularly from Iran. [17:16] Addressing the recent agreement with [17:17] Israel under which the IDF would [17:19] withdraw from select Lebanese villages [17:22] as part of a pilot program aimed at [17:24] preventing from repositioning near the [17:26] Israeli border. The council reportedly [17:29] welcomed the diplomatic efforts and [17:30] expressed hope that the recent moves [17:33] would compel Israel to withdraw. They [17:35] all want Israel to withdraw. They all [17:36] want but that's only going to happen if [17:38] gone. They say they all want gone but no [17:41] one's going to get gone except for [17:44] Israel. So that's where that is stuck. [17:47] Now there's another issue here which is [17:49] UNIFIL. [17:51] UNIFIL is the United Nations interim [17:54] force in Lebanon. Interim they've been [17:57] there for decades and they are this sort [18:00] of like peacekeeping force. And to you [18:02] know to really understand UNIFIL it's [18:04] worth understanding who they are. Their [18:05] mandate runs out at the end of the year. [18:08] And it's basically this UN peacekeeping [18:10] force that's been in South Lebanon a [18:12] long time. They don't really do much [18:15] and they've actually been a problem for [18:17] Israel because they're officially [18:19] monitoring things and they kind of make [18:20] it more they make it more difficult over [18:22] the years. They've made it more [18:23] difficult for Israel to act against. And [18:26] even though they're supposed to uh you [18:29] know make sure that the area south of of [18:32] the Lat the area of South Lebanon, south [18:34] of the Latani River is all disarmed, [18:36] they don't really do that. My son Mayor [18:39] made a fantastic video about UNIFIL that [18:42] he released today. I highly recommend [18:44] you go to his channel. It'll also help [18:46] him. He just started his YouTube channel [18:47] just a few weeks ago and thank God he's [18:50] doing pretty well with it. Uh but uh [18:52] it's a phenomenal explainer video and [18:54] it's short. It's much shorter than my [18:55] videos. It's only 12 minutes long. So go [18:58] to his his channel. I'll put this video [19:00] as a pinned comment in this one. I'll [19:03] put his video in there and please give [19:04] him a click. give him a you know go [19:06] ahead and watch that and it's a really [19:08] good video if you really it's a big it's [19:10] an important piece of the puzzle of [19:11] understanding the Lebanon situation is [19:13] to understand UNIFIL and he does a great [19:15] job of walking through the whole history [19:16] of it but here it says that Lebanon [19:19] backs UNIFIL mandate renewal this is [19:22] from three days ago [19:24] so Lebanon's president Lebanese [19:27] president Josephoon said on Monday that [19:29] Beirut supports renewing the mandate of [19:32] UNIFIL and welcome the French Italian [19:34] initiative for an international presence [19:36] after the UN mission ends. According to [19:39] Lebanon's national news agency, he [19:41] welcomed the French Italian initiative [19:43] to form a European force to fill the [19:45] vacuum following UNIFIL's withdrawal. [19:48] Okay, let me explain what's going on [19:50] here. [19:51] UNIFIL has been hasn't done anything. [19:53] UNIFIL's mandate runs out. The UN is not [19:56] is not said that they're not renewing [19:58] it. [19:59] the Lebanese president, the Leb Lebanon [20:01] has said that they are going to bring [20:03] the Lebanese army is going to assert [20:05] itself and it's going to take over and [20:06] it's going to actually be the the sole [20:08] bearer of arms in the country and they [20:10] are going to assert control and now he [20:12] turns around and says we'd actually kind [20:14] of like UNIFIL back and Israel's like we [20:15] don't want UNIFIL why does he want [20:18] UNIFIL back because if UNIFIL is there [20:21] even though they don't do anything then [20:23] it takes the burden off of him this [20:26] abject failure that the entire entire [20:28] world is staring at this failure of the [20:32] Lebanese army. This this complete utter [20:35] impotence of the Lebanese government and [20:37] Lebanese army to do anything aboutaha. [20:40] And if the only two forces you have [20:43] there are the Israelis [20:45] and the Lebanese army who are both you [20:49] know the Israel's like we're going to [20:51] deal with you don't and we know what to [20:53] do but that involves us going in there. [20:55] We're going to bomb. We're going to hit [20:56] him. we're going to capture territory. [20:58] And the Lebanese are like, "No, no, no, [20:59] no, no. You need to withdraw. Don't do [21:01] that. We'll take over. We'll take [21:03] control." But they don't really have the [21:05] ability or the will or the desire to do [21:07] it. So, if UniFil is in there, [21:11] then they can sort of they don't have to [21:14] really be doing anything. They can say, [21:15] "Well, Unifil is there. He wants Unifil [21:18] in there to deflect from his own [21:20] impotence, [21:22] from his country's own inability to deal [21:25] withaha. It gives a kind of cover for [21:28] their ineptitude. [21:32] Okay. Um, [21:34] last couple notes about the Lebanon [21:37] situation that I want to throw into this [21:38] video just to sort of fill out the [21:40] picture of where we are is, you know, [21:44] you probably heard and I talked about it [21:46] uh yesterday [21:48] that the UK [21:51] decided to sanction Israeli [21:55] businesses and and entities related to [21:58] Judea and Samaria, what they call the [22:00] West Bank. [22:02] But in that same statement, Ed Miban, [22:05] the foreign secretary, said that they're [22:06] also sanctioning, and they're actually [22:08] doing that. So, here's a report from [22:10] from from the Foundation for Defense of [22:12] Democracies. The United Kingdom has [22:14] putbala's shadow bank in its crosshairs. [22:16] On September 8th, two days ago, British [22:19] foreign secretary Ed Milliband announced [22:20] sanctions on Lebanesea's [22:22] financing arm, Alcard Al-Hassan, Aka. [22:26] That's a that's a that's a a bank. [22:29] Britain joins the United States and six [22:31] Gulf states with with jointly designated [22:33] AKA through the terrorist financing [22:36] targeting center in June. Britain [22:39] already outlawed in its entirety, [22:41] separately designating AKA now subjects [22:44] the financing institution itself to an [22:46] asset freeze and records London's [22:49] finding that it provides financial [22:50] services and funds [22:53] uh specifically tobala. British [22:56] nationals and UK companies must freeze [22:58] AKA funds and economic resources they [23:00] control. Okay. So they're [23:03] um that's basically what this is. [23:05] They're they're sanctioning. So there [23:07] are things happening. Look, I know I'm [23:10] being very harsh on the Lebanese [23:11] government because they deserve it. But [23:13] they are doing some things to [23:14] marginalize. They do want to get rid of [23:16] in their perfect world. Is gone. They're [23:18] just not willing to do the tough things. [23:20] But they are trying to shut them out of [23:22] financial institutions. andbah is is [23:25] being squeezed. The Israelis are [23:27] squeezing them. The uh the Iranians [23:31] don't have funding to give them. The [23:33] Iranians are running out of funding. [23:34] They don't they don't have money. The [23:35] Iranians themselves are are strapped for [23:37] cash. I covered that in the video [23:39] yesterday and we all know about that. [23:41] So, is really on on the run. Israel just [23:44] took over their main compound, their [23:46] main headquarters in South Lebanon, the [23:47] Alitah Ridge [23:50] and now their main bank, their main [23:52] funding uh apparatus is being shut down. [23:56] And this connects to what the Trump [23:58] administration is doing against Iran [24:01] because this it's another piece. [24:03] Remember is Iran. So if there's a bank [24:06] in Lebanon, that's a tentacle of this [24:09] Iranian octopus that's also now getting [24:11] sanctioned. So that's important. And [24:14] finally, you have this analytical piece [24:16] in Ashal Assad, no friend of Israel, but [24:19] Ashalad does a pretty decent job with [24:21] their analysis. You know, they they [24:23] simplify things. What options does have [24:26] in dealing with Israeli escalation? [24:29] Finds itself facing an increasingly [24:31] difficult equation. And this talks [24:32] about, we've been talking about the the [24:34] conundrum that the Lebanese government [24:35] is in or their, you know, their their [24:38] inertia and ineptitude. [24:40] But this article is about is looking at [24:42] it from the Kisbala perspective that [24:44] they're also kind of stuck. They find [24:46] itself in an increasingly difficult [24:48] equation as Israeli escalation in South [24:50] Lebanon has widened in recent days. How [24:53] will the party the partybalah respond to [24:56] because rememberbala means party of [24:58] Allah. The party of Allah. How will the [25:02] party respond to mounting Israeli [25:03] strikes without being drawn into a [25:05] broader confrontation that Israeli Prime [25:08] Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be [25:09] seeking either to postpone Israel's [25:11] elections or improve his prospects in [25:13] them at the same now let me explain what [25:16] they mean by that and there there could [25:18] be some truth to this it it it could be [25:20] a consequence of it Iran has been [25:22] threatening to get involved to protect [25:25] they haven't done anything about it but [25:29] the an escalation withaha. Ifaha [25:32] escalates, it just gives Israel more [25:34] license to go further and hit them [25:36] harder. And if Iran jumps in, hey, [25:39] that's even better. Then Israel has [25:40] license to go after Iran. So Israel [25:43] doesn't actually mind escalation right [25:44] now. That's the point. At the same time, [25:47] is facing growing pressure from its [25:49] support base, which is bearing the brunt [25:51] of the strikes. That's the Nabatia [25:53] declaration we saw at the beginning of [25:54] the video. [25:56] Yet the group's options appear largely [25:58] con constrained by regional [26:00] developments. The sources see no [26:02] indication so far that may make a [26:04] military response has no interest in [26:06] escalating militarily against Israel. [26:08] They're not in a position to win that [26:10] fight. They argue that one objective of [26:12] Israel's widening offensive is to [26:13] provoke and Iran into retaliating and [26:16] trigger a broader war. That's what I [26:18] just mentioned. [26:20] Hilal Kashan, a professor of political [26:22] science at the American University of [26:24] Beirut, took a different view. I found [26:26] this very interesting, saying has no [26:29] options left because its military power [26:32] has collapsed, [26:34] particularly after its decision to hand [26:37] over Ali Taher, a symbol of its pride, [26:41] to Israel rather than surrender it to [26:43] the Lebanese army. I love the wording [26:45] there. They didn't hand over Ali Taher [26:47] to Israel. They lost it. But it's being [26:50] spun in Lebanon and this is making this [26:52] is there are videos coming out of [26:54] Lebanon of Lebanese people in Arabic who [26:56] are making fun ofah. There's a lot of [26:59] talk the the Israeli capture of Ali [27:02] Taher is being talked about in Lebanon [27:04] as an embarrassment forbalah. Why? [27:07] Because before the Israelis took it, the [27:09] Lebanese army, the Lebanese government [27:12] turned tobalah and said, [27:15] instead of losing it to the Israelis, [27:18] hand it over to us. Just walk out of [27:21] there, have your guys leave and let us [27:23] come in. Because what did the Lebanese [27:25] government want? They wanted to be able [27:28] to show the world and show the Israelis [27:30] that they can dislodgebah and take [27:33] security control of a critical area. So [27:36] they said tobalah, "Look guys, you're [27:39] going to you're going to lose it to the [27:40] Israelis, [27:42] better that you allow us to step in and [27:45] take control of it and walk away [27:49] than ha than hand it over to Israel [27:51] because remember the dynamics [27:52] domestically's [27:54] whole thing is that we're protecting [27:55] Lebanon from the Israelis and that the [27:57] Lebanese government can't." So when the [28:01] Lebanese government publicly calls onbah [28:04] to hand alitire over to them to prevent [28:07] Israel from capturing it, remember the [28:08] psychology of the Lebanese people about [28:10] Israel capturing their land. Andah [28:13] refuses and then Israel takes it. So [28:15] everyone's looking at it going you [28:18] idiots. Instead of giving it to the [28:19] Lebanese government and keeping it away [28:21] from the Israelis, you handed it to the [28:23] Israelis. [28:25] So this is part of the conundrum that [28:27] they're in because they look like [28:28] idiots. fellow lacks the ability not [28:30] only to fight Israel but even to provoke [28:32] it. It sent two drones and we saw the [28:35] results. Israel hit them hard. The [28:37] academic believes the party's current [28:39] priority is to retain its weapons [28:41] domestically after its military role in [28:44] confronting Israel has effectively [28:46] ended. Although Hisbala insists on [28:48] living in denial, [28:50] retired Lebanese Army Brig Army [28:53] Brigadier General Munir Shahade offered [28:55] a different assessment. Now here he's [28:57] going to be more pro- Kisbala, more [28:59] anti-Israel identifying, but it's a good [29:01] analysis identifying three available [29:04] options tobala. The first is a broad [29:06] direct military response. [29:09] Uh that's the this is the option that [29:10] could give Israel the pretext it's [29:12] seeking to expand its target list. It [29:14] doesn't make any sense why they would do [29:15] that. It's and that's why he says it's [29:17] therefore a high-cost option, meaning [29:19] they could escalate. That's number one. [29:21] Number two. Second is to refrain [29:23] entirely from responding. That also [29:25] carries a price because Israel could [29:27] interpret it as evidence that it can [29:28] impose new realities without paying a [29:30] cost. Meaning it means that I mean can't [29:34] if they don't respond at all then they [29:36] look weak. Basically [29:39] the third option is a calibrated limited [29:42] response. In my view this is the most [29:44] logical option if the group decides to [29:45] respond. [29:47] Shahada said may be facing a more [29:49] complicated calculation whether to [29:51] respond to Israel now or wait until the [29:54] direction of US Iran negotiations [29:57] becomes clearer. I don't know what [29:58] negotiations there are. Shahada expects [30:01] to avoid in the near term initiating a [30:04] major response that could trigger an [30:05] all-out war. I agree with that. At the [30:08] same time, the group cannot indefinitely [30:10] tolerate continued Israeli escalation [30:12] without responding because then they [30:14] look weak. He stressed that the most [30:16] realistic scenario is to contain the [30:18] escalation, monitor developments on the [30:21] ground, take into account the US Iran [30:23] diplomatic track, and keep open the [30:26] option of a limited, carefully [30:27] calibrated response if Israel crosses [30:29] certain lines. [30:31] You know what? You know what this [30:33] basically means? Let me sum it up. It [30:34] means the is caught between a rock and a [30:36] hard place. If they escalate, they're [30:39] doomed. If they don't escalate, they're [30:41] weak and impotent. They've lost Ali [30:43] Taher. They look like fools. Meanwhile, [30:47] their patron Iran is on the ropes and [30:49] they're looking at that going like, "Do [30:51] we hold on and kind of keep things the [30:53] way they are and see where that's going [30:55] or do we escalate?" Now, they don't know [30:58] what to do. That's the situation in [31:00] Lebanon. And and we have the [31:02] incompetence and ineptitude and and just [31:05] sloganering of the of the Iran of the [31:08] Lebanese government uh calling for [31:11] UNIFIL. I mean, this this situation, [31:13] Lebanon is [31:16] dysfunctional in the extreme. I know [31:19] that's nothing new to you, but that's [31:21] the situation we're in. God bless. [31:23] Thanks for watching.
