Transcript [00:10] My brilliant guest tonight and lover of [00:13] selfies, Simon C. Bag Montir, has said [00:16] that we are in a new world of [00:18] counterhistory. [00:20] A new world of counterhistory where [00:22] neither historical facts nor present [00:24] time facts matter if they don't fit the [00:27] ideological orthodoxy. He has said it is [00:30] our responsibility as historians to [00:33] stand up and be unafraid to contradict [00:36] conventional wisdoms, surging [00:38] conspiracies, witch hunts, I don't know [00:40] what that's about, uh, purity tests, [00:43] pylons that are used to crush debate, [00:44] and to say persuasively, this is what [00:48] happened. And that is what he does in [00:50] his brilliant new book, The Cauldron: [00:52] The Making of the Modern Middle East. [00:55] Don't worry though, this is Seabag. And [00:57] I promise you it is not a dry textbook. [01:00] Here you will read a chapter with the [01:02] title fat [ __ ] Uh I'm not kidding. [01:06] That was the CIA's code name for King [01:08] Farooq of Egypt. You will learn in these [01:11] pages that a PLO terrorist was married [01:14] to a Miss Universe. You will learn that [01:16] the Sha and JFK were both John's at [01:20] Madame Claude's Parisian brothel. You [01:22] will also learn that Saddam Hussein was [01:25] raised by an uncle who wrote a pamphlet [01:27] titled Three Whom God Should Not Have [01:30] Created: Persians, Jews, and Flies. [01:34] Okay, that last one is maybe a little [01:36] predictable. Um, you have said that this [01:38] is the hardest book you have ever [01:39] written, that only someone who is [01:42] bonkers would write it. And I'm so [01:44] excited to be here with you, both [01:45] brilliant and bonkers as you are. [01:47] >> Thank you so much. It's so I'm just I'm [01:50] so pleased to be here. Thank you. So [01:53] let us I promise we will get to the book [01:56] and we will get to history. We have to [01:58] start though in the present because [01:59] rarely has a book of history felt so [02:03] welltimed and kind of ripped from the [02:05] headlines. So two days ago, I've lost [02:08] track of time. Um this astonishing story [02:10] unfolds in the skies over the Middle [02:12] East, in the skies over Saudi Arabia and [02:14] and Jordan in which a flight of Israelis [02:18] going from Dubai to Tel Aviv. Um, it [02:21] seems as though there was going to be [02:22] some kind of attempted hijacking, let's [02:24] call it, by an Omani national who was [02:27] the pilot. He tries to kill the other [02:29] pilot who's an Indian national. And the [02:32] whole thing is thwarted by his heroism [02:35] and by the heroism of four Israelis and [02:38] then others on the plane who stormed the [02:40] cockpit. It was kind of like a United 93 [02:42] type moment, but one in which no one [02:45] miraculously ended up dying. And I think [02:48] if you look at just the facts of what [02:50] happened, a flight taking off from Dubai [02:54] to Tel Aviv, landing and getting safe [02:57] harbor and care in Saudi Arabia, those [02:59] are things that would not have been [03:02] thinkable 20 years ago. Tell me how you [03:05] see that story. What is contained in [03:07] this story for you? [03:08] >> Well, I I agree with you. But first of [03:09] all, let me say thank you all for being [03:11] here, Barry. This is this is amazing. [03:13] Thank you. [03:15] But you're absolutely right. I mean, [03:17] what has happened in the last two days, [03:18] this amazing um event is is is not just [03:23] a metaphor, but but it is the new [03:26] reality and it's playing out. There's so [03:28] many parts of it that tell you about our [03:30] times and um I'm only my only regret is [03:34] I can't start the book with it now, but [03:37] you know, there's always the paperback. [03:38] Um but um but you know, it it's an [03:41] amazing thing and it tells you a lot [03:42] about what the potential for the future. [03:44] I mean, I should perhaps begin because [03:46] we're going to have so many depressing [03:47] and dark things in this in this book. [03:50] But the good thing is, um, this is a [03:53] moment of amazing potential in the [03:55] Middle East, surprisingly after October [03:57] the 7th, you know, the Iran war, so much [04:00] tragedy, so much um, suffering, and yet [04:05] um, the potential now is enormous. And [04:08] it's demonstrated in some of the the [04:10] ways that you talk about in the in in [04:12] this occasion because Israel is is [04:15] poised if it had the right governance, [04:17] if it had the if it had um you know, if [04:20] it had a different government than it [04:22] has right now. Um you know, it is poised [04:25] to cash in the results of its military [04:29] victories, its dynamism, its survival [04:32] after October 7th. And it could there [04:35] are more people leaders and people in [04:37] the in the Arab world now than ever than [04:39] than ever before since the 30s um who [04:43] would be who would be willing to find a [04:46] place for Israel um in the Middle East. [04:49] So that's just the Israeli aspect of it. [04:51] But the advantage of of this would be [04:53] great also for the powers especially the [04:55] Gulf powers in the you know in um Saudi [04:58] Arabia, UAE and others. And so that is [05:03] demonstrated first of all by the fact [05:04] that the flight is happening. The Abra [05:06] hammer cords it seemed like they might [05:08] die. They are not going to die. They are [05:10] actually thriving and they um you know [05:14] demonstrated by the fact that Netanyahu [05:16] BB Netanyahu flew to UAE, met MBZ and [05:19] MBZ announced it which had never [05:21] happened before and what happened? [05:24] Nothing. There was no reaction. No one [05:26] was shocked. Um then Saudi Arabia as you [05:29] said the Sa Saudis welcomed this this [05:31] flight of Israelis um treated them [05:34] warmly and the fact is that ultimately [05:37] if various things happen um [05:40] normalization could be back on the table [05:43] and there are all sorts of economic [05:45] programs um like which involves India [05:48] and the Middle East um and Greece and [05:51] Israel and UAE but you know that that's [05:54] an architecture that could absolutely [05:56] flower in the next few years. And then [05:59] there's the fact that, you know, in this [06:01] event, first of all, you have then then [06:03] the dark side. You know, we are now [06:05] entering a period where Iran is in [06:07] desperate straits. Um, it is going to [06:10] use everything it can. It is activating [06:13] all its terrorists. We don't know if [06:14] this Ammani guy was an Iranian. [06:16] >> No, but we do know that the thing that [06:18] happened at the Air Force base in the UK [06:20] several weeks ago, the British prime [06:22] minister has now said [06:24] >> that it was Iranian land. [06:25] >> Yeah. just soon after the British [06:26] foreign secretary had just shaken the [06:28] hand of the foreign minister of Iran [06:30] proudly in um in New York. Um so so they [06:34] are going to activate all their kind of [06:36] every dirty trick, every terrorist and [06:39] you know there've just been two um [06:41] occasions that could have been mass [06:42] death events which weren't and we need [06:44] this luck to continue and we must pray [06:46] for it. So the fact that they tried to [06:48] bring down this plane, they were going [06:49] to fly it into an American base or an [06:51] Israeli city shows the danger that the [06:55] conflict is now reaching a height. But [06:58] on the other hand, the actions of the [07:00] Indian pilot. You know, India is now [07:03] building a very close relationship with [07:05] Israel. um the Indian prime minister who [07:07] visited visited Israel a year ago. He [07:10] said he sees great affinities between [07:12] the Indian nation, Hindu nationalism and [07:14] Israeli and Jewish nationalism. Um that [07:17] is an alliance is only going to grow [07:19] since Pakistan is now allied with Saudi [07:22] Arabia and and and and Turkey which I'm [07:25] sure we'll talk about. Um so that is [07:27] another aspect of this. The the part of [07:29] the Indian was part of a new growing [07:32] relationship that is going to be hugely [07:33] important. India is the most populous [07:35] nation on earth. It is going to be it. [07:38] It is an emerging superpower. And the [07:40] third part of it is the actions of the [07:42] Israelis. The Israelis, the four [07:45] Israelis that took control of the plane [07:47] that rescued the um the rescued the d [07:50] the dive of the plane and and and [07:52] grabbed the pulled back the the the [07:55] lever [07:55] >> because the plumber said that he had [07:57] seen some Canadian documentary about air [08:00] crash air crashes. I mean, the lesson of [08:02] one of the lessons [08:05] >> Well, it's like you can't script it. [08:07] >> No, one of the lessons is you've just [08:09] got to watch a a lot of television. Um, [08:11] preferably preferably CBS and b um and b [08:16] you've got to watch all those kind of [08:18] crime um you know in flight document. [08:21] >> Every person that's ever been on a [08:22] plane, especially after 9/11, I think [08:24] has the thought to themselves, what [08:26] would I do in that situation? [08:27] >> Everyone's thinking that all the time [08:29] and now we're going to be thinking it [08:30] about even more. But the po the point my [08:32] my point is [08:33] >> no but what the where I was going to go [08:35] with that is it was very hard not to you [08:37] know we're coming up on the third [08:38] anniversary of uh the massacre of [08:40] October 7th a day in which ordinary [08:44] Israelis in the absence of the state and [08:46] the army for a very long period of time [08:50] had to sort of step into the breach and [08:53] watching them sort of step into the [08:54] breach again I just wondered if you [08:56] wanted to reflect on that. Yeah, that I [08:58] mean that that's what I think that's the [09:00] point here. You know, we're looking at [09:02] an Israel that is suddenly returning [09:04] more to like the Israel of the of its [09:06] early days. Um, [09:08] >> what do you mean by that? [09:09] >> Well, what happened was, you know, in [09:10] the in the early period, the pioneer [09:13] period of Israel, um, I'd say from 48 to [09:17] to to the to the 80s to say 1980, that [09:21] was a period when Israelis believe that [09:24] um, you know, that you you had to look [09:26] after yourself. you left no you left no [09:29] you you you left no prisoners um you [09:32] always you always were were brave and [09:35] tried to um take and defend Israel's [09:38] place in history and in the world you [09:40] know when when the French tried to [09:42] withdraw you know try to um hold back [09:44] their their um gunboats they kidnapped [09:47] them when when you know when when [09:50] terrorists kidnapped hijacked the planes [09:52] attebi they went and got them and so [09:55] that was the philosophy [09:57] um of that period the 80 between the 80s [10:00] and and 2023 and just October 7th a [10:04] different era happened Israel got more [10:06] comfortable you know one of the striking [10:08] things about October 7th was um many of [10:11] the soldiers at the front in the in the [10:12] Gaza envelope didn't have access to [10:15] their own guns you know the guns were [10:17] locked up and this was a new era where [10:20] Israel had been perhaps gled into a [10:23] sense of perhaps hubristic [10:26] um over security and that has changed [10:29] with October 7th with October 7th it's [10:31] back to basics again um there's also [10:34] strategic side of this which is [10:36] interesting um you know Bengurians [10:39] Bengurian's um you know geopolitical [10:41] military strategy was always that you [10:43] know you always you struck um threats [10:46] immediately you struck them preemptively [10:49] and you struck them on enemy soil not on [10:52] your own soil well all of that went went [10:55] um was was rejected in effect, maybe [10:58] without deep thought by Netanyahu in his [11:02] in his pre earlier in his premiership [11:03] when he decided that you could manage [11:06] you could watch Hezbollah and prepare [11:08] your intelligence, but in Hamas you [11:10] could just manage them and you could [11:12] manage them by opening up Gaza um uh by [11:16] by making deals and then in the end it [11:18] looked like Hamas was just gangsters [11:21] with with Kalashnikovs and in the end [11:23] they could be bored off and that proved [11:26] to be wrong and obviously he is he has [11:29] overturned that philosophy himself. Um [11:32] but what you saw in on the plane two [11:34] days ago is the new Israel philosophy [11:37] which is like you strike threats, you [11:40] don't allow threats to build up. And so [11:42] that's why this this event which is a [11:45] great place to start so symbolizes this [11:49] new era in all senses. But there's one [11:52] thing I'd just say before before I [11:54] finish this this answer, which is that [11:56] there's a limit to this strategy. You [11:59] can't kill everybody. You can't strike [12:01] all enemies. And and in the end, um you [12:06] have to build relationships, too. [12:08] >> There's a lot in there. You return a lot [12:10] to this theme of Israel winning sort of [12:13] um short-term victories without having a [12:16] long-term vision. I want to come back to [12:17] that. One last question about the plane [12:19] and I think what it's what that what [12:21] this story symbolizes the post 911 world [12:24] right it was a world of the clash of [12:26] civilizations Islam and the west cannot [12:29] coexist they cannot be compatible you [12:31] write in this book that Islam is a house [12:34] of many rooms in other words that the [12:36] Islam of Dubai is different than the [12:39] Islam of Thrron is different from the [12:41] Islam of other places say a just a few [12:44] sentences on that before we move on [12:45] >> I think I think there I think the [12:46] fascinating thing to understand is, you [12:48] know, we we we we were used to this [12:50] clash of civilizations [12:52] um narrative. And if you speak to people [12:54] in the in the um in the world in the [12:57] Islamic world, they disagree with that. [12:59] And that and this book, you know, I [13:01] spoke to a lot of people um in all the [13:03] there are 19 countries in this book and [13:06] I spoke to a lot of people in those in [13:08] those countries and they said to me, [13:10] you're misunderstanding this. um you're [13:13] buying in some ways you're buying into a [13:16] sort of decolonialist [13:18] anti-imperialist narrative which you've [13:21] just embied without even realizing. And [13:22] I said like what do you mean? And they [13:23] said like well the idea that Islam that [13:26] that certain people in the west regard [13:28] Islam is is totally um uh uh you know [13:33] impossible to live with and that um and [13:37] that there's a deep hostility between [13:38] the two. You they said you're [13:40] misunderstanding Islam. There are two [13:41] Islams. There is a great tradition in [13:45] Islam of openness of the exchange of [13:48] ideas. Um, and the Gulf states, the Gulf [13:52] Shakdoms, the Emirates from, you know, [13:54] have existed for many, many centuries. [13:56] And they represent that in part. And [13:58] that's what we're seeing now with the [13:59] UAE. They were always open to trade with [14:02] India, to trade with the Far East. um [14:06] historically they they funneled um [14:09] spices and other goods from the east um [14:12] through the trade routes and out through [14:14] Egypt to Venice and Genoa in the middle [14:17] ages um through Mammal Egypt and so they [14:20] represent what we're seeing now with the [14:22] Abraham Accords and UAE is not some sort [14:24] of pro-western pro-American [14:27] um uh uh sort of exception to Islamic [14:31] history. It reflects one, one return. [14:34] And you saw it with the great empire, [14:37] the great Islamic empires, the the [14:39] Abbisids, the Umayads, the Ottomans, the [14:42] Mamaluks, Saladin. These were all people [14:44] who were perfectly capable of being both [14:47] Islamic and having close relationships [14:49] with the West. And then there's then [14:51] there's another tradition in Islam which [14:54] is redemptionist messianic modist is is [14:58] is hostile to western ideas believes [15:01] that Islam should be dominant in any [15:04] state and must rule and that is what you [15:06] saw with ISIS that Omar was discussing [15:08] and that he encountered that we're [15:10] seeing in Thran um and that you're [15:12] seeing also in the new Islamism which [15:15] the Islamism of today is is a new [15:18] ideology not an ancient idea claims to [15:20] be an ancient idol. It's a new ideology [15:23] and it contains all sorts of western [15:26] thought as well. In fact, ironically, [15:28] fascism. You only have to look at you [15:30] only have to look at the Hamas charter [15:32] to see how much from the from Europe is [15:35] taken into this new ideology. And so [15:38] this is what we're seeing now, the [15:39] battle of these two versions of the [15:43] House of Islam. [15:44] >> Okay, there's so much more I want to get [15:46] to there. I want to I want to like stay [15:49] on October 7th for a minute because one [15:51] thing you do in this book not the day of [15:53] October 7th but you reframe October 7th [15:57] not as a day but as you call them the [16:00] October 7th wars. [16:01] >> Yeah. [16:01] >> That began that day and that have [16:04] continued in different chapters [16:05] including in Iran. And you say and this [16:09] is a provocative line. I really want you [16:11] to expand on it. You say that October [16:14] 7th was one of the most successful Arab [16:16] victories since Hatton in 1187 [16:20] when Saladin defeated the crusaders and [16:22] took Jerusalem. Tell us more what you [16:24] mean by that because looked at it one [16:26] way, Israel destroyed Hamas and and [16:29] arguably destroyed all of Gaza. [16:32] >> So explain how it's been a victory. Um [16:34] you Hamas is a Hamas is an organization [16:37] and is part of is is is a vanguard of [16:41] the the the the resistance radical [16:45] Islamism. Um that does it is not really [16:48] interested in the the the well-being of [16:52] its people. Um and we saw that in in a [16:54] million examples which I give in the [16:56] book. But [16:57] >> you know um they they they ploed all the [17:00] food for Gaza. They they they sold the [17:03] food. They they they they built 350 mi [17:06] of tunnels, but the people of Gaza [17:08] weren't allowed. And it um and I quote [17:10] one of their leaders saying um that that [17:14] that you know they could easily replace [17:15] these 50,000 people who had been killed [17:18] at that point. Um because um that didn't [17:21] matter. Um the fact that what mattered [17:23] was that they have got students at [17:27] Colombia and Harvard and Cambridge and [17:29] and and the LSE believe believing in a [17:34] one state in a one-state Palestine with [17:36] the ejection, liquidation, destruction [17:40] of Israel and Isra and the Israeli [17:43] nation which is 10 million people and [17:47] they said that was the real triumph. And [17:49] so they've said this this is this is not [17:51] a theory that I'm putting out which is [17:53] it is a provocative statement but it's a [17:56] statement of of actual truth. [17:59] >> Well you basically make the argument [18:00] that Israel may have won against Hamas [18:02] and Gaza but Hamas won in the West. [18:05] Yeah. [18:05] >> And one of the ways we see that is the [18:07] way that this post October 7th ongoing [18:11] increasingly borderless war has [18:13] transformed the lives of people all over [18:16] the world. [18:16] >> Yeah. Israelis, anyone who is associated [18:20] with Israel, anyone who is considered [18:22] Zionist, or anyone that is suspected of [18:24] Zionism. We saw that this week with this [18:26] attempted um plot in the Texas state [18:29] capital carried out by a man who was [18:31] angry at Apac. [18:32] >> Yeah. [18:32] >> What the Texas state capital has to do [18:34] with Apac. Someone will have to explain [18:36] that to me. [18:37] >> But the point is that it's transformed [18:39] our lives. And I want you to just spend [18:40] a minute given that you're from London [18:44] talking about how it's transformed your [18:47] life like get personal for us. How has [18:49] in transformed your life the life of [18:51] your family and the life of your [18:53] community? [18:53] >> I mean in you know I I come from a very [18:56] the British commun British Jewish [18:58] community is tiny. You couldn't even [19:00] imagine it as Americans. You have six [19:02] million Jewish people here. Um and and [19:05] you know one of my analyses is that you [19:08] know the the the Jewish Jewish Americans [19:10] became one of the establishments of [19:12] America and um that isn't that has never [19:16] quite happened in England. We have you [19:18] know around 250,000 people in the out of [19:22] 70 million people in Britain. So we are [19:23] a tiny community and in Europe we are [19:26] now um and I say we because I'm also [19:29] talking about the French Jews in France [19:31] and Netherlands. We are really feeling [19:33] pressure now in a way that that that [19:35] that my parents would have been amazed [19:38] at because my parents my parents was my [19:40] my mother was a second generation [19:43] um uh she came from Lithuania. She was a [19:45] litvac and she um and she you know she [19:49] so believed in Britain and the royal [19:51] family and and that Britain had given [19:53] them and she but she always used to say [19:55] to me um Simon don't don't make trouble [19:59] because they'll know you're Jewish and [20:02] um the quieter you are that don't draw [20:03] attention to yourself and we just can't [20:06] afford to do that now. Um, and that's [20:08] one of the lessons that, you know, that [20:10] that that that I I would I would tell, [20:12] you know, anyone who's Jewish here or [20:14] anyone who cares about the freedom, the [20:17] liberalism of free society is like, [20:19] don't let anything go. Omar Muhammad [20:22] didn't, you know, that's what Omar [20:23] Muhammad has taught us from the tragedy [20:26] and the mass murder of Mosul. And I take [20:30] that very seriously. [20:31] >> What does not let anything go? [20:33] >> I just think I just think you have to [20:35] challenge everything now. And you can't [20:38] >> don't let the lie pass. [20:39] >> Don't let the lie pass. And there are a [20:41] lot of lies. Um there's not just the [20:43] genocide lie. There's other lies too [20:46] that that you cannot let pass now. And [20:49] if it if if it has some sort of cost to [20:52] you um and you know you read out that [20:55] piece you know if it has a cost from [20:57] pylons on on Twitter or something um you [21:00] know you have to you have to take you [21:02] have to risk that and you have to absorb [21:04] it because what we we we're in Europe [21:07] anyway we're fighting we we're fighting [21:10] what we feel like for the existence of [21:12] our of our communities in Britain now [21:14] you go to synagogue there are armed [21:16] police outside there are high gates with [21:19] barb wire. Um there are endless [21:23] volunteers in in anti-stab vests. And so [21:27] in Britain we we we feel pretty [21:28] besieged. People don't wear stars of [21:30] David when they go out on the tube. They [21:31] don't they you know they wear yaml [21:33] because they get they get they get [21:35] harassed or shouted at. So yes, the [21:38] October 7th has changed our lives and I [21:42] think it's changed everybody's life in [21:44] different ways in Jewish communities. [21:46] But um it's made us it's made us very [21:49] aware of who we are and it's made us [21:51] think that that that eternal Jewish [21:53] question. Our bags are always packed at [21:56] least mentally. [21:57] >> Where the hell would we go? And you know [22:00] that is a question that people are [22:02] asking in England. [22:03] >> One of the things that I've loved about [22:05] this book and I've loved about a lot of [22:07] the interviews you've given and I I [22:09] really recommend the one uh that was in [22:11] the Wall Street Journal with uh Tonku [22:13] Varajan. It's phenomenal. And you talk [22:16] about, you really illuminated for me [22:18] what you call the history of sort of the [22:21] Western fetish. Yes. [22:23] >> Not just with the Middle East, but [22:24] specifically with the Holy Land. And you [22:26] talk about how [22:28] >> that obsession is prefigured and [22:30] pre-programmed by the history of [22:32] Christendom. And you take it all the way [22:34] back to Constantine the Great. Explain [22:36] to everyone here what you mean by that [22:37] because I think for a lot of people it [22:39] feels like a modern phenomenon. And [22:41] you're saying no, it's not. the pattern [22:43] was already there. Why? [22:45] >> Yeah. And I think I think what you got [22:46] to understand is that this is a [22:48] pre-programmed fascination, obsession, [22:51] fetish that is really programmed by the [22:54] history of Christianity. I would not [22:56] Julio Christianity, but Christianity. [22:59] And when Constantine the Great converted [23:02] to Christianity in in the early 4th [23:04] century starting in 306, he he started [23:07] his journey. his mother had already his [23:09] mother Helena had already um flirted [23:12] with Christianity and may have been an [23:13] early convert. Um when he converted he [23:16] converted the whole Roman Empire and um [23:20] which then of course ruled um Palestina [23:23] which was the province that that that [23:26] Hadron had re has had renamed Judea as [23:30] Palestina. and um and and he sent his [23:33] mother to Palestina to create a sacred [23:38] itinerary and and to find [23:41] >> just to linger on that for a second, an [23:42] imperial force renamed Judea Palestina. [23:46] >> Yeah. Yeah. So, so in in um in [23:50] >> there's all kinds of turns like that in [23:51] this book. [23:52] >> Yes. Yeah. So what happened what [23:54] happened was in you know there was the [23:55] there was there was the famous Jewish [23:57] revolt or Judeian revolt against the [24:00] Romans against Emperor Nero starting in [24:02] ' 66 crushed by um emperors emperors [24:06] Vespasian and his son Titus in 70 they [24:09] destroyed the temple they destroyed [24:11] Jerusalem um but they left a lot of [24:13] Judeans or Jews in in Judea which was [24:17] the name of the holy land and and of [24:20] course you will all know that You know, [24:22] the word Jew is just short for Judeian. [24:25] And so in in 13 about 130, the Jews [24:29] revolted again. And they revolted [24:32] because the Emperor Hadrien was going to [24:34] turn the temple, the site of the temple [24:37] into a pagan temple to his own family [24:40] and to gods associated with Jupiter. So [24:44] he that there was a rebellion by Simon [24:46] Barokba who I'm named after and um and [24:51] and the rebellion defeated many Roman [24:53] legions and then was crushed by the [24:55] emperor Hadrien and as a punishment um [24:58] he banned Jews from Jerusalem and he [25:00] also renamed [25:02] Judea Palestina and by the way in this [25:05] period um one thinks about slavery in [25:08] our own time or you know the slavery of [25:10] the the Atlantic slavery but there were [25:12] so many Jewish slaves then that the [25:15] price of slaves fell to virtually [25:17] nothing and everybody everybody in Rome [25:20] had Jewish slaves which is quite a [25:22] thought. Anyway, the point is that when [25:25] Constantine 300 years later 150 years [25:28] 200 years later converted um he sent his [25:31] mother to Palestine and in and in [25:35] Palestine his mother was the most [25:37] successful archaeologist of all time. [25:39] She found the very nails that had nailed [25:43] Jesus to the cross. And there could only [25:45] have been about six of them, you know, [25:47] but she found all six. Um, she found she [25:50] found the wood that had been used to [25:52] actually crucify Jesus. She found the [25:55] place he'd been crucified and his tomb [25:58] and she built the first church, the holy [26:00] seple there. But the interesting thing [26:02] was this made as as Europe converted to [26:06] Christianity. This converted the Holy [26:09] Land or or Judea Palest Palestine into [26:12] the Holy Land. It became the Holy Land [26:15] and everybody had to go on this [26:17] pilgrimage to visit these places. And so [26:20] creating this by the emperor was a kind [26:22] of brilliant piece of sort of tourism [26:26] and and and and religiosity. And that [26:29] was the beginning of this relationship. [26:31] And it went on, it culminated with the [26:34] Crusades when, you know, over 150,000 [26:37] people set out from Europe, killing Jews [26:40] on the way um to to reconquer um from [26:44] the Muslims, the the church of the holy [26:46] separ Jerusalem. And when they took [26:48] Jerusalem on the 15th of July 1099, they [26:51] killed everybody in Jerusalem, including [26:54] including all the Muslims and Arabs and [26:57] Turks, but also all the Jews, all the [26:59] infidels. And they they they killed so [27:01] many people that that the blood in some [27:03] streets rose up to their bridals. [27:06] >> Oh my god. [27:06] >> So um and that that lasted a hundred [27:10] years. And then um the you know, Saladin [27:13] retook Jerusalem. the the the Crusades [27:16] gradually collapsed and then the [27:18] Crusader Kingdoms gradually collapsed [27:19] and then there was a period in the [27:21] Middle Ages when every single village [27:24] hall in in Europe had a Jerusalem [27:27] chamber with pictures of what Jerusalem [27:29] should have been. [27:30] >> And this goes right the way through to [27:32] the Reformation which was a return to [27:34] the Old Testament as well as the New [27:36] Testament and to the and to history. Um [27:39] and then there was the then there was [27:40] the you know the settlement of America [27:42] and the the great awakening the [27:44] evangelical the evangelical awakening in [27:46] America which is still going on and um [27:49] and that leads us through to you know [27:51] Victorian evangelism and then the [27:54] imperial statesmen like Churchill and [27:56] Lloyd George and Balful who created the [27:58] modern Middle East in many ways. And so [28:02] when you look at the history, you [28:04] realize that this isn't just this isn't [28:07] just about Israel. [28:09] >> Um it's really about a fetishistic [28:13] obsession with the Holy Land, which is [28:15] so deep in the Western consciousness [28:17] that often we don't even know it's [28:18] there. And when you look at uh you know [28:22] the the the decolonialist, anti-Israel, [28:25] anti-imperialist protesters um at our [28:28] universities for example, [28:30] >> you see them as they don't see [28:32] themselves as religious, but you do. [28:34] >> Well, it's a religious movement. I mean, [28:36] you only have to look at the language. I [28:38] It's a totally religious movement. They [28:40] think they are in a secular world, and [28:42] we think we're in a secular world. No, [28:44] religiosity is terribly important. We [28:46] have our secular saints. We have our [28:49] secular causes. We have our kredos. This [28:52] is this is a place. [28:53] >> Who are secular saints? [28:54] >> Well, I mean um many of the you know um [28:57] David Atenburgh for example is a secular [28:59] saint. You know um there are there are [29:01] many and and in the you know in the [29:04] anti-Israel movement there are sec there [29:06] are many secular saints. And the point [29:08] about it is that deep in the souls of [29:11] those students in their cafes outside [29:14] >> um outside our universities and our in [29:17] our streets deep in their souls there's [29:19] a seam that it belongs completely to [29:22] crusader knights to um Victorian [29:26] missionaries and evangelicals [29:28] um and and to the imperial statesmen [29:31] that they hate more than anybody. And [29:34] you know they are the successors of [29:35] these people. And you can see it in the [29:38] presumptuous entitlement to adjudicate [29:41] exclusively [29:42] for the Holy Land, not for Saddan, not [29:45] for Syria, um not for Libya, uh not for [29:49] Ethiopia, no only for this place. [29:52] >> And so so when people say it's all [29:54] anti-semitism, it's all anti-ism. No, it [29:57] it's actually comes from the deepest [29:59] reaches of our civilization. And that is [30:02] why there is this absolute fetishistic [30:05] and it's a I of describe it in the book [30:07] as weird because you know why you know [30:10] but it but it it's the result of history [30:13] um living itself re re you know living a [30:16] different identity now but I I'd also [30:19] say that you know the countries that are [30:22] most obsessed with the holy land now are [30:25] also those with the most with the most [30:28] brutal histories of colonialism and [30:30] settle and settlerism themselves. [30:33] >> And that is also an another side of it. [30:38] And this is this is in part a way this [30:41] analysis of the Holy Land today is in [30:44] part um an an attempt to redeem [30:48] themselves for their own history which [30:51] is much closer. And and that is that is [30:54] also that is also part of this story. [30:57] And and and I just say that the funniest [30:58] thing about all this is that you know [31:01] when it started I said like this is [31:04] going to end up with people actually [31:05] calling for the west to reintervene in [31:07] the Middle East and that started [31:10] >> that's what's happening. [31:10] >> That's what's happening. I mean a [31:12] British MP um you know stood up [31:14] >> Ed Milliband not Ed Milliban but he he [31:17] he said no he said he Ed Milliband who's [31:20] the new foreign secretary in Britain um [31:22] has you know and and you know the first [31:24] thing that um the new prime minister [31:28] Andy Burnham talked about the first [31:30] statement he made was that you know [31:32] we're going to be tougher on Israel [31:33] we're going to crack down on Israel [31:35] >> but sorry I got it wrong on Ed Milliban [31:36] tell the story about the [31:38] >> well there's a British there's a British [31:39] MP not quite Ed Miban but there's a [31:41] British MP um who's a who's a Labour MP [31:45] who stood up and said like it's time we [31:46] intervened again in the Middle East. We [31:48] need to we need to send an armed force [31:51] to intervene against against Israel and [31:55] to to to demolish it to to dismantle [31:58] Israel and create a Palestinian state. [32:00] And this is I mean this is this is kind [32:04] of absolute proof of my theory about [32:06] that we've just been talking about. [32:08] Well, there's I just I I it's one of the [32:12] many reasons why this book is worthy of [32:14] being read because it you deepen the way [32:17] that I see something that has become [32:20] sort of a trope and a caricature. You [32:22] give it a deep deep historical roots. [32:25] You mentioned that the the fetish of [32:27] this one tiny place in the world [32:31] basically the rest of the region and the [32:33] tragedies of it get overlooked and you [32:35] document many of those tragedies. The [32:38] most recent of which is of course what [32:40] happened in Iran in January where at [32:42] least 30,000 people were murdered. You [32:45] say that that number is is higher. Many [32:48] there's many people that reported that [32:49] it was higher. And you say that more [32:51] people died on that day than died during [32:53] the entire reign of the Sha. [32:55] >> Do you know 11,000 bodies are still [32:58] missing? 11,000 are still missing. And [33:02] partly that's because I mean this is so [33:04] disgusting but they you know these [33:06] bodies have been demolished especially [33:08] women because they were because that [33:10] there are mass rapes took place um you [33:13] know they had a they they then just sort [33:15] of they then had to take out the organs [33:18] of the bodies and couldn't return them [33:19] to their parents. What happened there is [33:23] so disgusting and it is the biggest [33:26] massacre of in cold blood in the region. [33:31] um in the last 150 years and that's [33:34] saying something. Um [33:35] >> well, so you write about this as one [33:38] chapter in sort of the post October 7th [33:41] wars or the October 7th wars and you [33:44] know I want to talk a little bit about [33:45] the public narrative around this war. [33:47] Okay. The public narrative around this [33:49] war, at least according to some, is that [33:52] Israel convinced Trump to get involved [33:54] based on the idea that they sold him [33:57] that the regime would topple once they [34:00] wiped out the leadership. You talked to [34:02] a lot of people. You reported a lot for [34:04] this book. Is that true? [34:06] >> I don't I don't think it's I don't think [34:07] that is quite true. And I think that um [34:11] I I think that what what happened was [34:13] that I think Donald Trump has always [34:15] been um determined to stop Iran getting [34:19] a nuclear weapon. And I think that he he [34:23] saw an opportunity and many leaders [34:26] um see and I I'm I'm here completely [34:29] speculating because you know actually we [34:31] don't know what went on in the mind of [34:33] Donald Trump. No one does. Um, and um, [34:37] that's a very impo impossible thing to [34:39] imagine for anybody else. [34:40] >> Who's the historical leader he most [34:42] reminds you of? Just while we're on him [34:44] for a second. [34:45] >> Um, well, I guess he was a mixture [34:47] between Emperor Nero and Kaiser Vilham [34:50] I. [34:52] Um, but he's also unlike both those um, [34:58] you know, and and I and I say this with [35:00] I have very mixed feelings about this [35:01] this this administration. Um but you [35:04] know he's also but I also wrote a book [35:05] about speeches and about communication [35:09] and he has reinvented a new form of of [35:13] comm of of of popular discourse that [35:16] will influence everyone for decades [35:18] whether they hate him or love him and [35:22] Trumpism you know whatever whatever one [35:24] wants to call it um we will will he's [35:27] completely changed politics in America [35:30] um his his his enemies also have aped [35:35] his style of um shocking shock, you [35:39] know, of of shock talk of um of of [35:43] insulting enemies. the the extremism [35:45] that he's created and he's fostered has [35:48] been echoed exactly [35:50] um in the in his opposition too and we [35:54] will see that in you know in the [35:56] Democrat party and what happens with the [35:58] DSA and you know in the Democrat but [36:01] >> your perception is the United States got [36:03] into this war to prevent Iran from [36:05] getting a nuclear weapon. [36:07] >> I I believe I believe that is that is [36:09] that is what he wanted to do. I also [36:11] think um that that his intervention in [36:15] the 12-day war last year was in a very [36:19] untrump way because one thinks of Trump [36:21] as wildly unbuttoned, undisiplined, [36:25] chaotic um and and also [36:30] hard in his kind of public states, but [36:33] he's also weirdly capable of great [36:36] stealth and focus and that always [36:38] surprises everybody. And so in the [36:40] 12-day war when he intervened last year [36:43] and hit with his B his B1 bombers um [36:47] nuclear Iranian nuclear facilities I [36:49] mean that was an intervention that would [36:51] have delighted Clausvitz and von Mula [36:54] who said that you know strate you know [36:56] strategy and plans never last beyond [36:58] contact with the enemy and he then he [37:01] then declared the war over and that was [37:02] the end of it. So that was a that was a [37:05] very successful intervention. But he [37:07] then had the intervention that was that [37:09] was um Midnight Hammer. Oh yeah. But he [37:11] then had the intervention in in in [37:13] Venezuela which was an extraordinarily [37:16] successful intervention. Whatever you [37:17] again whatever you think of what he was [37:19] trying to do [37:20] >> and not one American [37:23] >> but now this right and the [37:24] administration's trying to [37:26] >> say that the war the war is like the [37:28] official war is over but obviously the [37:30] war goes on. [37:31] >> Yeah. And the question is, as we sit [37:33] here on I think it's October 1st, who is [37:35] winning that war? What is the endgame [37:37] for this war? [37:38] >> Well, I think that I think that the the [37:39] intervention on the 28th of February was [37:41] an opportunistic, impetuous [37:43] intervention. I don't think he needed [37:45] Netanyahu to to sell him on it. I think [37:49] that both of them were for different [37:52] reasons. Trump because of Midnight [37:54] Hammer and Venezuela. Netanyahu because [37:57] after the huge humiliation of October I [38:00] 7th and an unparalleled disaster in [38:02] Israeli history, he had you know [38:05] conducted an amazing set of spectacular [38:08] military operations and therefore both [38:11] of them for different reasons embraced [38:14] um a wildly overoptimistic um sense of [38:18] what could be achieved by air power and [38:20] assassination. [38:22] And you know, if you look at history, [38:24] you know, we we bombarded we we we [38:27] killed 80,000 people in on in in a night [38:30] in, you know, fire raids on Dresden and [38:32] Cologne and Tokyo. And those those [38:35] governments weren't even close to [38:37] surrendering [38:38] um in World War II. Um there are very [38:42] few examples of air power, you know, [38:44] succeeding in overthrowing a regime. [38:47] Also, regimes are very hard to overthrow [38:50] if they have a huge dedicated security [38:55] organs and militias that are willing to [38:58] kill for the regime. That's the big [39:00] test. If you have that, popular power [39:02] never works. Never. It's virtually it's [39:05] virtually unheard of for that to work if [39:07] they remain loyal. And in this regime, [39:11] those people um the besieged militias, [39:14] the revolutionary guards, the secret [39:16] police, the security ministry, they are [39:18] totally loyal because they have nowhere [39:19] to go. And so it was it was it was it [39:22] would have been very unlikely, [39:24] especially since they'd killed the whole [39:26] opposition, 30 to 40,000 of them a few [39:29] weeks earlier. So So it was unlikely to [39:33] succeed. as for now. Um, if if id if I'd [39:37] been advising them, no one asked me. Um, [39:40] and actually and actually they'd fired [39:42] recently many of the experts on Iran who [39:45] would have might have told them this. [39:47] But the point was that they should have [39:50] they should have used that massive [39:51] armada that they amassed in February to [39:54] do what they're doing now, which is [39:57] launch a a brutally a brutally ruthless [40:00] cold blockade of the Iran, which would [40:04] change [40:05] >> which would change the the straits of [40:07] Hormuz and the Gulf the Persian Gulf [40:09] from an asset that allows Iran to [40:12] strangle the western supplies of oil to [40:16] a liature [40:17] that will throttle Iran itself. [40:20] >> And this has happened before. This is [40:21] what happened in 1953 with Mosedc when [40:26] you know he he threw out the British, he [40:28] nationalized the oil and then the [40:30] British said, "Well, we're not going to [40:31] deal with you. We're not going to sell [40:32] your oil. We're going to allow you to [40:33] sell your oil." And Mosedc was [40:35] overthrown very quickly afterwards. And [40:38] now Trump in a in a much quieter way. I [40:42] mean, he has kind of explosions of [40:44] saying, um, we're going to bomb them, [40:46] you know, we're going to destroy Iran, [40:48] but what's actually happening is is is [40:51] being run by Bessant and obviously by [40:53] the defense by the Pentagon. And they [40:55] are doing what they should have done all [40:57] along, which is an incredibly quiet, [40:59] brutal, tight blockade that is going to [41:03] prevent Iran from selling the one thing [41:05] that it can sell, oil, and it's going to [41:08] it's going to strangle. When a [41:10] revolution works, whether it's in the [41:12] Russian revolution in 1917 or Iran, now [41:15] this is what has to happen. The people [41:17] who are bureaucrats, who have jobs in [41:20] the government, who have f have three [41:22] children, they have to they are earning [41:25] a salary, they have to feel that they're [41:29] going to lose that salary and it's worth [41:31] risking that salary and their children's [41:34] future in order to join that revolution. [41:38] And that hasn't that hasn't happened yet [41:39] in Iran. [41:40] >> Do you think it could? [41:41] >> Yeah, it could. And it is going to [41:43] happen. And that the re the revolution [41:45] there is this revolution is going to [41:47] fall. There is going to be a revolution [41:48] against the Islamic Republic. It's it's [41:51] such a vile res regime and Iranians most [41:55] Iranian [41:56] >> vile regimes can go on for a very very [41:58] long time as this book proves. [42:00] >> They absolutely can. But it will fall at [42:03] some point if they continue if Trump [42:06] ignores domestic American politics, [42:09] >> which is a big if, and continues to um [42:12] continues this blockade, the regime the [42:15] regime will subside at some point. The [42:18] big danger for this regime in Iran is [42:21] peace. [42:23] Is peace. When peace happens, when quiet [42:26] happens, then the Iranian people will [42:28] say like we are impoverished. Everything [42:30] is destroyed. He says in in the region [42:32] >> as as quiet when the when there is a [42:34] when when the regime is when there is [42:36] quiet and the the war with America has [42:39] been um put on put on a lower gear then [42:43] this regime will face a massive crisis [42:45] internally and um people will ask [42:49] questions about you know how they've [42:51] managed to so mismanage and misgovern [42:53] Iran that this wealthy country with this [42:56] incredibly rich history and rich elite [42:58] and sophisticated culture has ended up [43:01] like this. And that is and incidentally [43:05] that is why the Iranians have attacked [43:08] so brutally, you know, the UAE and Saudi [43:11] Arabia and and Bahrain and Kuwait [43:14] because those are living repudiations of [43:18] of the Islamist way. They show that [43:21] Islamic Islamic countries can be [43:23] incredibly rich and successful and [43:25] comfortable and look after their people [43:28] as well. And that is the le that's the [43:30] lesson of this. [43:32] >> Talk to us about just the the sweep of [43:34] the past 25 years in the Gulf because [43:37] you know you think about the roots of [43:39] Wahhabism. Yeah. [43:41] >> Right. That's the Gulf. [43:42] >> Yeah. [43:43] >> And yet look where the Gulf is now. [43:45] >> Yeah. [43:45] >> How did that happen? Well, I mean the [43:47] Gulf the Gulf is so interesting because [43:49] you know obviously Saudi Arabia is is [43:52] that I I tell I start the book with the [43:54] conquest of the conquest of the capture [43:57] of Riyad by Abdul Aziz the future king [44:00] the first the founding king of Saudi [44:02] Arabia. And I start that because I so [44:04] want this book not to be about you know [44:07] most most books in the Middle East start [44:09] with um you know Lloyd George and [44:12] President Wilson sort of drawing the map [44:14] of the Middle East. I don't want I want [44:15] this to be about the m middle east [44:17] middle eastern agency and the agency of [44:20] the peoples there. So I start with him [44:22] taking this city. He gallops in with 40 [44:25] friends. He's 25 years old. He's 6'4. [44:29] He he has a sword on his belt. He has a [44:32] Lee Enfield rifle on his shoulder. And [44:35] he gallops in with 40 friends um into [44:38] into this small town. He climbs over the [44:40] wall into the date groves. He seizes the [44:43] harim of the governor and he waits till [44:46] dawn and then when the governor walks [44:48] out to visit has his harim as you do. Um [44:52] he he jumps out. He he jumps out and he [44:56] they there's a shootout and they they're [44:58] fighting with swords and spears and and [45:01] these these kind of basic Leenfield [45:03] rifles and he takes the city and that is [45:05] the founding of the third kingdom, the [45:08] third emirate of Sa of Saudi Arabia [45:10] which we have today and um so Saudi [45:14] Arabia is a bit different because Saudi [45:15] Arabia is a conquest state. It's the [45:17] biggest state in the Middle East and he [45:19] conquered it personally in battle and he [45:22] was in battle himself. [45:24] >> But the but the interesting thing is the [45:26] Gulf the Gulf states um UAE and the [45:30] others um they were actually British [45:34] protectorates right until 1971 [45:38] when when when the British under Harold [45:40] Wilson were too impoverished to keep [45:42] their garrisons there. They um you know [45:46] they begged the British to stay and um [45:50] they said they'd even pay for the [45:51] British garrisons to stay which is [45:52] pretty unusual in colonialist history. [45:55] But the point about it is that they they [45:58] had found a a kind of very um a model of [46:02] how to of how to govern themselves. And [46:04] when they became independent they [46:05] created the UAE that has been the best [46:08] governed state in the Middle East really [46:10] including Israel by the way. um which is [46:13] which may surprise you because Israel of [46:14] course is a democracy, a very flawed and [46:17] messy one but a democracy nonetheless [46:20] the successful Gulf states which I call [46:22] the boutique powers um they they are [46:26] very well governed but they they are [46:28] family absolutist monarchy [46:30] >> right you're saying they're well [46:31] governed but they they don't like have a [46:33] vote they don't [46:34] >> no they don't and that's like when [46:36] you're writing about the Middle East um [46:39] you know you you know if you if you [46:40] insist on everyone having a western [46:42] system of liberal democracy. Um, it's a [46:46] bit like if assisting on a secular view [46:48] of of of human life. If you're writing [46:52] about the Middle East, you have to [46:53] accept that Western democracy doesn't [46:55] necessarily [46:57] um thriving there and you have to accept [46:59] that this is a world of religious [47:02] observance of increasing religious [47:04] observancy or you know not not only in [47:06] the Arab world but in Israel too. So if [47:09] you see sort of Israel, the Gulf States, [47:12] America as one group, you have obviously [47:15] Iran and what you call the dragon bear [47:18] of China and Russia as the other. Talk [47:20] to us a little bit just about how that [47:22] axis is. It's not simply that you see [47:28] China showing up, you know, all over the [47:31] world. It's that it's increasingly in [47:33] the war in Ukraine. Like these things [47:35] are in are [47:36] >> converging. [47:37] >> Converging. Yes. I mean what what you [47:39] see is very f there are there are [47:41] different levels of these conflicts and [47:43] if you step back from the minutiai of [47:46] you know which tanker has got through [47:48] the Gulf of Hormus today in the oil [47:50] price you step back um I've talked [47:52] already about how on on the regional [47:55] level um of course there are all sorts [47:57] of regional powers Turkey Iran Israel [47:59] Pakistan Saudi Arabia Egypt trying to [48:02] trying to gain as much as they can and [48:05] we're seeing that happen in East Africa [48:07] um and and and in the Middle East [48:09] itself. Um, but there's another level [48:12] which is the battle within Islam that I [48:14] talked about. And then the higher level [48:16] is a systemic battle for the the world, [48:20] a planetary struggle between open [48:23] systems like America um and Britain and [48:27] and and and the comfort democracies of [48:29] Europe or as I call them. um and and [48:33] also the west and in that I include [48:37] South Korea and Taiwan and and and other [48:40] states and Ukraine and against [48:45] um the closed world the control world of [48:49] Russia and China which have completely [48:51] different values to us and um what's [48:56] happening in the Middle East is a part [48:57] of that and Iran is an ally of both [48:59] China um which it sells most of its oil [49:02] to and Russia who is that is giving it [49:05] intelligence that is that it's using to [49:08] hit American bases. Um so so this is [49:12] part of a much bigger this is something [49:15] part of something much bigger too. Um [49:18] and and to understand it you know you [49:21] have to step back and look at [49:22] >> the people in the comfort democracies [49:23] even understand most of them that that [49:26] is the the the great clash. [49:29] >> Yeah. I mean the people in the comfort [49:31] democracies or the legacy powers as I [49:33] call Britain and Britain and France. Um [49:37] >> that's a nice way of saying decadent and [49:39] decaying. [49:39] >> Decadent decadent and decaying but still [49:42] nuclear powers still members of the [49:44] security council. [49:46] >> You know I see I I mean there is there's [49:49] there's a there's a there's a trajectory [49:51] that I see where you know Europe needs [49:53] to get its act together basically as a [49:56] power block. And I see a Europe, you [50:00] know, in the next few years, I hope, um, [50:04] where you have war democracies. [50:08] Warm democracies war democracies are [50:10] countries like Taiwan, South Korea, [50:12] Israel, Ukraine, [50:14] >> people that are alive, people that are [50:16] at sort of the the the [50:19] barricades. [50:20] >> Yeah. They're at the front of the free [50:21] world. They're at the front. They're the [50:23] vanguard. They're at the the [50:24] >> This is what I mean. I mean, if you talk [50:26] like the public consciousness, I imagine [50:29] of people in China, of Russia, in Iran, [50:32] they understand their goals and what [50:34] they're about. [50:34] >> Yeah. [50:35] >> If you asked the average Brit or the [50:37] average American right now, [50:40] >> Yeah. [50:41] >> What would you be willing to die for? [50:42] What is your country about? [50:44] >> Yeah. They don't know. And you know, if [50:45] you asked if there was conscription in [50:48] these countries now, um, very few people [50:51] would agree there'd be a revolution. I [50:53] mean you you know very few people would [50:54] serve their countries because [50:56] >> so can you become a a war democracy [50:59] without war? [51:01] >> No, you can't become a war democracy [51:03] without struggle without realizing the [51:05] stakes and the reason why war [51:07] democracies exist and are different. And [51:10] this brings us back right back to that [51:11] flight. You know four British people [51:14] would never have stormed that cockpit. [51:16] You know um well you know [51:18] >> I was on a stage in Germany. [51:20] >> Four Ukrainians would have. Yes, [51:23] >> four Taiwanese would have um you know [51:26] four four you know this is this is the [51:29] difference four Poles would have and [51:33] that's why [51:33] >> so go deeper go deeper into what that [51:35] means that high agency [51:37] >> you know these people the Israelis [51:39] Taiwanese they Ukrainians [51:42] everybody in their countries understands [51:45] what is at stake that their freedom [51:47] their democracy um their way of life is [51:51] at stake and has to be defended as it [51:53] always has been defended um throughout [51:56] history. Nothing has been gained. [52:01] Thank you. [52:03] Nothing has been gain nothing worth [52:05] having has been gained without struggle. [52:09] And that is the lesson that we're facing [52:11] today in America, in Britain, France, [52:14] Spain, these countries that were that [52:16] that in America's case is still, you [52:19] know, is still the greatest power on [52:21] earth. In Britain and France still with [52:24] huge potential um because they are [52:26] nuclear powers, they're sophisticated [52:28] societies. But what you have in in [52:30] especially in Europe today, if you're [52:32] wondering what the hell's happening in [52:34] Europe, what you're having in Europe is [52:36] a result of the most successful [52:38] societies in history. I mean, these the [52:42] people who are protesting in the [52:43] streets, it's it's the ultimate it's the [52:46] ultimate luxury. [52:48] >> It's the ultimate we use the word luxury [52:50] beliefs, but you know, let's let's dig [52:53] down into that. You know, this is the [52:54] ultimate [52:55] >> and credit to our free presser Rob [52:56] Henderson for coining that phrase. [52:58] >> Yes. Yeah. And it's a brilliant it's a [53:00] brilliant phrase and and actually that [53:01] that's typical of what free press is [53:04] coming up. [53:04] >> Nice. I love that. [53:09] >> It's it's very good. But anyway um uh [53:12] but but the point is that that that this [53:14] is something that is so important and [53:17] you know what you have in in in in [53:19] Britain you know Britain France I mean [53:21] have you seen France today? I mean [53:23] France Paris is burning. Paris is on [53:25] fire today. There are there are [53:27] >> kids are being kept home from school. [53:29] >> There there's no school and people [53:30] there, you know, I someone just sent me [53:32] a picture of um from their daughter's [53:35] their daughter's apartment. There is [53:36] like those burning there like five [53:38] burning cars outside and there are kids, [53:41] you know, staggering around. They're on [53:43] bikes kind of, you know. So there there [53:46] is a huge there's huge [53:47] >> What is that? What's going on there? [53:48] what's going on there is a result of [53:51] mass immigration starting in the 70s um [53:55] from you know from the the the former [53:58] imperial the former imperial prop [54:00] territories of France um and [54:04] well-meaning well-meaning governments [54:07] for decades have have welcomed these [54:09] people with the best of intentions and [54:13] that has been a disaster for the French [54:15] state and the French society and it is [54:17] going to be a disaster for Britain. Um, [54:20] and this is not this doesn't mean that, [54:22] you know, I I'm actually [54:24] >> I'm actually a huge celebrator of, you [54:27] know, the diversity of Britain. The the [54:29] enri you know, our society is so [54:31] enriched by by the majority of people [54:34] who come in, but um but we are just [54:39] entering a period of massive um [54:42] immigration and movement. It hasn't even [54:44] started yet what is going to happen in [54:46] Europe because the population [54:48] >> fast forward for everyone just cuz I [54:50] want to get to one or two more questions [54:52] before I fast forward 50 years. What's [54:54] Europe going to be? [54:55] >> I mean all the governments in Europe are [54:58] either going to have to surrender their [55:00] entire their their entire you know their [55:03] entire program architecture of [55:05] government. they will not be if they [55:07] accept more and more of of people coming [55:10] from the Middle East and Africa um which [55:13] who are going to come because of [55:15] instability of the cauldron of what is [55:18] happening in Africa which is this [55:20] incredible population explosion the only [55:24] part of the world where population is [55:26] increasing where fertility is thriving [55:29] um those people are going to are going [55:31] to move north and they're moving north [55:33] because of the comfort democracies is [55:36] the word is the the clue is in comfort. [55:39] You can you believe that these these [55:41] states now offer free welfare, free [55:44] health, free housing, free hotels for [55:47] anyone who comes into the country. Of [55:49] course, everyone wants to live in them. [55:50] Who wouldn't want to live in these [55:52] societies? But if those societies allow [55:56] everybody in um they will not be able to [55:59] the tax base will not be able to afford [56:01] it and they will cease to be comfort [56:03] democracies and they will become failed [56:04] states. So there's a there's there's a [56:07] great balance here between [56:10] humanitarian good intentions which I'm [56:13] all which I which I support and sensible [56:16] governance sensible and responsible and [56:19] truthful governance. Your book opens in [56:22] 1900 where the greatest power in the [56:25] region was the Ottoman Empire. The [56:27] Ottomans no longer exist. Their empire [56:30] no longer exists. And this book and so [56:33] much of your work is the story of how [56:35] fickle power can be, how quickly it can [56:39] change. [56:40] >> So I want to ask you what power is [56:44] rising as we speak that would surprise [56:46] everyone here and whose power is [56:48] diminishing? You know this the potential [56:51] for some of the great for some of the [56:53] powers in the world to rise is a [56:55] colossal. I mean India is you know the [56:58] next superpower. It now has more than a [57:00] billion people. It has an incredibly [57:03] educated society. It has in a thriving [57:06] economy. Um it has it has great [57:10] patriotism. Um and it has incredibly [57:14] dynamic um foreign policy. Some people [57:17] regard it as as as as as cowardly and [57:21] sort of and being friends with [57:22] everybody, but actually um it's a [57:26] nuclear state um and has a colossal [57:28] army. Um its potential is enormous. And [57:32] as we started this conversation, you [57:34] know, I was, you know, the fascinating [57:36] thing is that its relationships are [57:38] completely transactional and un [57:41] ideological. [57:42] So it's quite happy to be friends with [57:45] Russia and Israel, Greece and Turkey. [57:49] And um this is this is this is a shape [57:52] the shape of the world to come. This is [57:54] the shape of the multi-player [57:57] um world game that we're seeing now. So [58:01] >> 100 years from now, will America be the [58:03] most powerful country in the world [58:04] still? I think it might still be because [58:07] America um America's system is it partly [58:13] accidentally but partly by design of the [58:15] the founders that the the fed that the [58:18] federal system is a is an insurance [58:20] against idiotic presidents [58:24] and and that is a brilliant system and [58:28] it's it's it's messy. It's not perfect, [58:30] but I think America is the irrepressible [58:34] republic. [58:35] >> We started the conversation to some to [58:37] some extent with Israel. Where will [58:39] Israel be in a 100 years? The length of [58:41] this book, [58:42] >> Israel, Israel faces a massive [58:45] challenge, an existential challenge. Um, [58:48] you know, we often talk about um [58:52] states like Lebanon, which you know, [58:54] which are being destroyed and captured [58:55] by militias [58:57] and um and the civil wars that we see in [59:01] these countries and the dis and and the [59:02] splintering of Iraq, for example, into a [59:05] federal with a huge Kurdish um [59:08] autonomous zone. Um we see many of these [59:11] societ many of the many of the states of [59:14] the posttoman world um Sudan, Libya, [59:17] Syria, Iraq, we see them disintegrating, [59:21] maybe dividing into new countries. [59:24] Um and we think of Israel as outside [59:26] that because Israel is our ally. But [59:29] Israel is very much part of the Middle [59:31] East and becoming more like the Middle [59:33] East all the time. and some of the [59:36] things we're seeing the presence in the [59:39] government of supremacist Jewish [59:42] supremacist ministers [59:44] >> um [59:44] >> you're thinking of Beng [59:46] >> yeah Bengavir and sp the fact that you [59:49] know um the the sort of the sort of in [59:51] discipline of the of the of the Israeli [59:53] army in Gaza with you know um something [59:57] you don't see in most armies um and it's [60:00] a sign that it's a citizen's army but [60:02] it's also a sign of an army that could [60:05] splinter. Um when you when you see [60:08] >> that's a pretty radical statement. [60:09] >> Yeah. When you see units of the Israeli [60:11] army sent to discipline [60:14] um aggressive settlers in the West Bank [60:17] and they they they they put their guns [60:19] down and pray with them. That is when [60:22] you see that is when you see something [60:24] terrifying about Israel. [60:26] >> Um that is when you see the possibility [60:28] that Israel could be captured by [60:30] militias and could disintegrate. And you [60:32] may think this is very unlikely. Um but [60:35] this has happened to many states in the [60:37] Middle East. And you know and yet with [60:41] so little discipline um a new Israeli a [60:45] different Israeli government you know [60:47] could could um restore discipline very [60:51] easily. But equally, another Israeli [60:54] government without that discipline um [60:56] could see what Bengurian feared when he [61:00] fired on the Altalina ship in 1947-48 [61:04] when it was landing Urgun arms and he [61:08] made the decision. He saw a real danger [61:11] then of what is happening now and [61:15] Benorian was the ultimate strategist and [61:17] we should listen to him. We are going to [61:18] have to have a whole conversation about [61:20] your love of Benorian, your hatred of [61:22] Manakan and the revisionists. This is [61:24] like a fascinating conversation. [61:26] >> Well, Jabatinsky, you know, Jabatinsky. [61:29] >> Okay, we got to let these people. We [61:31] don't have time for Jabatinsky. [61:33] >> Okay, go on Jabatinsky really quick and [61:35] then I'm going to take us to a close. [61:36] Fascinating thing about Jabotinsky who [61:38] is you know the political father of of [61:41] Benjamin Netanyahu and Manarch and [61:44] Beagan is that the fascinating thing [61:46] about him is he was a much more [61:48] interesting thinker than any of them [61:50] gave him credit for. He he he stated [61:54] many times not one Arab should be driven [61:57] out of of the Jewish state and that the [62:00] Jewish state should be governed um [62:03] alternatively by Arab and Jewish prime [62:06] ministers and when there was a Jewish [62:08] prime minister there should be an Arab [62:10] deputy prime minister and when there was [62:12] a when there was a Jewish deputy prime [62:14] minister there should be an Arab prime [62:15] minister. So his attitude was very [62:18] different from you know the the way that [62:21] Jabatinsky and revisionism has been [62:23] seen. [62:24] >> Just quickly because there's an election [62:26] election coming up in Israel. [62:28] >> Who um who do you predict is going to [62:30] win that election? [62:34] >> Not who do you want who do you predict [62:36] will win it? [62:37] >> I think I think Netanyahu could easily [62:38] form the next government. Um, and you've [62:41] got to see that that you know what has I [62:44] saw Netanyahu sitting with the this is [62:47] full this works. This is a very nice [62:49] full circle. See if you can Well done. [62:51] Well done, Barry. Um, this is this is a [62:53] very [62:54] >> He's there with the plumber with the [62:55] bloody shirt. [62:56] >> He's there with the plumber. He's [62:57] singing a song. He's singing a song with [63:00] the plumber and the people from the [63:01] plane. [63:02] >> You know, that is that is I mean that is [63:05] just great politics, isn't it? And he [63:07] could win. But I also think that Eisenot [63:10] um I I come from a Moroccan Jewish [63:12] family by the way. The Seabags come from [63:14] Morocco. So does Eisenot. He's had a [63:17] very distinguished career. Um it could [63:19] be that Israelis are just exhausted with [63:22] the Netanyahu show. [63:24] >> And and and if if I was an Israeli, I [63:26] would I also would be by the way. Um but [63:29] but I could also see a Netanyahu [63:31] government. But what I hope is that [63:33] either Eisenhot will form the next [63:35] government which would be by the way [63:38] brilliant for Israel because as we [63:40] started to say the beginning this is an [63:43] amazing opportunity for Israel. There's [63:45] never been a greater opportunity for [63:46] Israel just as the events of the last [63:48] days show. Um, but if there is a [63:50] Netanyahu government, which I'm less [63:53] keen on, but if there was, and he was [63:56] able to form a government without those [63:58] those [64:00] Bengavir and Smatridge, um, he also [64:03] could could negotiate a new era. [64:06] >> I want to end with one question, last [64:09] question, and you're going to answer it [64:10] quickly, but it's going to take us back [64:12] to your book. [64:12] >> Can I answer any question quickly? [64:14] >> No, but it's incredible, and we love it, [64:15] and we can listen to you in your accent [64:16] all day. Um, our mutual friend Neil [64:19] Ferguson wrote a really important piece [64:22] in the free press recently and he talks [64:25] about sort of he admits defeat as a [64:27] historian. He talks about how in the [64:29] algorithmic age that is taking Holocaust [64:32] denial mainstream, historians must admit [64:35] a bitter defeat. And we see increasingly [64:38] that [64:40] it's not even counterhistory. It's just [64:43] unhistory. It's it's total ignorance and [64:46] disinformation is being passed off and [64:48] ingested by millions of people as truth. [64:52] Make the case to us. Give us the white [64:54] pill that history and historians and [64:57] books like this still matter. [64:59] Um, you know, I always I always um I [65:02] always tell the story of of of the the [65:05] Chinese um imperials court historian of [65:08] the first century who who um was writing [65:12] a world writing a a history of China in [65:14] the world and the the emperor and I [65:17] start I start my world history with this [65:19] and when he you know he was called in by [65:22] the emperor and he he he fell victim to [65:24] a court intrigue and the emperor said to [65:27] him, [65:29] I'm going to sentence you to death. And [65:31] the and the historian said, I I beg you [65:35] to let me finish my book. And he said, [65:38] okay. The emperor said, okay. The hand [65:40] the Han emperor said, okay, but you can [65:42] either be executed or you can be [65:45] castrated. [65:47] And he chose castration in order to [65:50] finish his book. And um and he finished [65:53] his history book. And he said later he [65:55] wrote he said you know when I look back [65:58] at the decision I made to be castrated [66:01] which was quite a risky procedure that [66:03] in those days [66:04] >> this is not where I thought we were [66:05] going. Yes. [66:06] >> And um and and he said um he said but [66:10] you know my book is read in many [66:11] countries and I am pleased that I took [66:14] the terrible decision to be mutilated. [66:17] And by the way I just want to reassure [66:19] you ladies and gentlemen that I have [66:21] finished this history intact. Um, and [66:24] you know, though I would have done [66:25] anything to finish the book. Um, but my [66:28] point of this history is, and this [66:29] brings us back to Neil Ferguson's [66:31] brilliant article, back to what back to [66:34] what Omar Muhammad was saying in the [66:36] beginning, and this is a good place to [66:37] end, is that we have to fight for [66:40] history because history is truth. And a [66:44] society, [66:50] a society, a the societies that rejected [66:54] truth and source and and um and systems [66:58] of analysis and and and evidence in [67:04] whether in science or in or in history [67:06] or in politics. um those societies will [67:10] collapse and therefore you know we have [67:13] to take we have to take risks in our [67:16] small ways and believe me you know when [67:18] I was writing when I was writing you [67:19] know when I was writing my stling book I [67:21] was helped by a guy in Russia recently [67:23] he called me and he said you know the [67:26] FSB have just raided my they it's 4 he [67:29] called me in the middle of the night and [67:30] he said it's 5 in the morning here um [67:34] you know at 4 at 3:00 a.m. the FSB [67:36] raided my house [67:38] >> and you know that's brings me back to [67:41] the castration story but the point is we [67:43] have to risk what we can risk what we [67:46] dare risk to stand up for [67:50] history which means truth which means [67:52] sources which means evidence and and [67:57] Neil was right we know we we let this [67:59] happen we haven't sort of risks enough [68:02] and when you hear the story of Omar [68:04] Muhammad at the [68:06] um you realize what he risked and he [68:09] said you know in in Mosul under ISIS the [68:13] risk was beheading in public on [68:15] television and for us the risk is a [68:20] pylon on Twitter we hope you know in [68:23] most cases and therefore you know we [68:26] must stand up for this we must do better [68:28] we must struggle and history means a lot [68:31] and that that's why I wrote this book [68:34] >> thank you all so much. [68:37] >> Thank you.
