Transcript [00:00] every uh appearance or every speech of [00:02] Prime Minister Netanyahu in the United [00:03] Nations is first and foremost a musical [00:07] which is played on Broadway but the [00:10] audience is Israeli. He grew up in [00:13] America. He studied in America. He [00:15] speaks with an American accent. But the [00:18] America that he understands to a large [00:20] extent is not the current America. If [00:23] you compare it to back to 2018, Israel [00:26] had a negative swing of over 70% [00:30] against it. And of course, it's very [00:32] much related to your question to [00:34] Netanyahu. [00:50] In the United States, if there's an [00:52] emergency, you're dealing with several [00:53] different systems. One organization runs [00:55] the ambulances. Another handles disaster [00:58] relief. A third manages the blood [01:00] supply. In Israel, it's one [01:02] organization. Men Davided Adom. MDA is [01:06] Israel's national emergency services [01:08] system. 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We're announcing [02:00] everything live on October 5th. If you [02:02] want to be the first to hear about it, [02:04] RSVP to our virtual announcement event. [02:07] You can find the signup link in the show [02:09] notes. See you there. Amit Nadv, thanks [02:12] for being here. [02:13] >> Thanks for having us. Thanks for having [02:15] us. [02:16] >> Okay, Amit, I want to um start with you. [02:19] We are taping this on Wednesday, but [02:22] this episode drops on the day that Prime [02:24] Minister Netanyahu will be addressing [02:26] the UN. So, I guess my first question is [02:27] what do you expect to hear from? And [02:28] then I want to talk about who who you [02:30] think he's speaking to. First and [02:31] foremost, every uh appearance or every [02:34] speech of Prime Minister Netanyahu in [02:35] the United Nations is first and foremost [02:38] a musical which is uh played on [02:42] Broadway, but the audience is Israeli. [02:45] uh which means and especially when it's [02:47] only 33 days prior to the election that [02:50] the audience is Israeli and it does it [02:52] it less matters for Netanyahu how um the [02:57] reception will be in the UN assembly [02:59] general assembly but more in Israel that [03:02] has always been the case that has always [03:04] been the case with Prime Minister [03:06] Netanyahu actually I think the only [03:08] country on earth in which uh the leader [03:11] speech at the UN General Assembly is [03:14] important and becomes a national event [03:17] is Israel and it has begun as I [03:20] understand around uh 2009 when Netanyahu [03:24] is back in the prime minister's office [03:26] and I don't have to remind to the [03:29] audience how important crucial the level [03:31] of English speaking is for the Israeli [03:34] electorate. [03:36] um many political careers of Israeli [03:38] politicians had been brought or have [03:41] been brought to a violent end when the [03:44] level of their English was exposed to [03:46] the public. So Netanyahu, one of [03:49] Netanyao's [03:50] res [03:54] um it's way better than Eisenot or Laid [03:58] uh and he is going to play it. However, [04:02] I'm not sure it's as important as it [04:04] used to be. Why? For many reasons. One, [04:08] the [04:10] Israelis are no longer [04:13] uh very affected by uh speeches, [04:16] especially after October 7th. Second, [04:19] the timing. It's Thursday, 900 p.m. in [04:22] Israel. Uh between one holiday and the [04:25] other, between one holiday and the [04:27] other. Just just just so our listeners [04:28] understand what we're referring to. So [04:29] Yum Kipur just ended and this is and [04:31] then the next holiday to come in is [04:33] Sukkot [04:34] >> and there are 150,000 Israelis abroad [04:37] and hundreds of thousands more on [04:40] vacations. This fall period where you [04:42] have this crush of Israeli holidays is [04:44] equivalent to like the United States [04:46] during Thanksgiving or the United States [04:48] around the Christmas holidays where in [04:51] Israel most Israelis are kind of checked [04:53] out. Absolutely. and the the ratings are [04:56] quite low in Israel. And that's why and [05:00] because we're on the election trail, so [05:02] it's less um I mean people are more [05:05] immune to the impacts of speeches [05:09] because they see not only the prime [05:10] minister Netanyahu but the candidate [05:13] Netanyahu as well. That's why I wouldn't [05:16] overestimate the impact of the speech. [05:19] Having said that, Netanyahu is promising [05:23] some surprises in this speech. Usually, [05:26] it comes with props. I mean, he uses [05:30] some, you know, in the past it was the [05:32] the cartoon of the bomb and before that [05:35] the plans of the Awitz concentration [05:37] camps. So, I guess it's going to be [05:39] somewhere around this area. In terms of [05:42] themes, any big themes? I mean, you're [05:44] alluding to them right now, but any big [05:46] themes that you think you will [05:48] articulate specifically, he's previewed [05:50] that he's going to talk about Mamani [05:51] from the podium. Mamani, Iran, he's [05:54] going to say, "We are still fighting. [05:56] Israel is winning. We rose up on October [06:00] 7th, and he's going to connect Israel [06:03] and himself, of course." So, anyone who [06:05] is Netanyahu's enemy uh is Israel's [06:08] enemy as well, and vice versa. So, it's [06:11] going to be a speech uh focused on the [06:15] uh swing voters in Israel, those who see [06:18] Netanyahu as accountable for the October [06:21] 7th massacre and responsible and [06:24] accountable too for their successes post [06:26] October 7th. Now, those are the voters [06:29] that have hard times to decide between [06:31] this fact and the other. And more [06:34] important than this, I have to say that [06:37] every framing of the election around [06:40] security, diplomacy, terrorism, and and [06:43] and etc, etc., is way better for [06:47] Netanyahu than the Achilles heel of his [06:51] entire election campaign, which is which [06:53] is the ultraorththodox alliance within [06:56] his coalition. So for Netanyahu every [06:58] day in the focused on the UN, Gaza, [07:02] Hamas, even October 7th is better than [07:05] the alternative. Okay. Nadav Netanyahu [07:09] is arriving at the UN at a moment when [07:11] both his standing and Israel's standing [07:14] in the United States have shifted [07:16] dramatically. Now, the shift has been [07:18] going on for a while, but it's [07:20] definitely gotten a lot of attention [07:22] recently. there's been a whole bunch of [07:23] polling out that that has, you know, [07:25] ignited a bunch of headlines on this [07:28] topic here and and obviously inside [07:29] Israel. So, how do you explain that [07:31] shift in attitude towards Israel and the [07:36] prime minister and and what is it? What [07:38] are the implications for his visit? [07:40] >> First of all, as to the implications, [07:42] Dan, you said it yourself. This is an [07:45] extremely short visit. This is not the [07:47] type of visit that Prime Minister [07:49] Netanyahu would have wanted to see. Now, [07:51] I'm not sure if there's not going to be [07:53] an ad hoc meeting between the prime [07:54] minister and between President Trump uh [07:58] somewhere, you know, around the UNGA, [08:00] the United Nations General Assembly. [08:03] This this might sort of assemble itself [08:05] uh spontaneously speaking and I'm sure [08:07] that the prime minister of people are [08:08] trying to get this done, but I'm not [08:10] sure that the president is going to uh [08:12] basically go for it at at this moment. [08:15] And if you look at the polls, something [08:17] amazing and very troubling, I'm using [08:19] amazing, although this is a like a [08:21] positive word in in English, but it's [08:23] it's extremely not positive for me as an [08:25] Israeli, has been happening with public [08:27] opinion in in the US. And you just need [08:29] to look at the numbers. So since spring, [08:32] even though the most of the war in Gaza [08:35] has stopped, uh we're not fighting the [08:38] same war. You don't have the same kind [08:40] of images circulating in the media as [08:43] you had a year ago. Uh Israel's position [08:47] net favorability of Israel has dropped [08:50] according to puh in 23%. [08:53] According to Fox News in 11% Ipsis 10%. [08:58] Today, according to the Washington Post [09:00] polling that was quoted by CNN, uh 55% [09:04] of Americans are saying that the US [09:06] should reduce or end its military [09:09] assistance to Israel. Uh and there's [09:12] practically no difference between [09:14] college grads, okay, there is some [09:16] difference between college grads, which [09:18] think more of that, but also non-ols [09:21] that the the there are 51% [09:25] who who say that. uh if you compare it [09:28] to back to 2018, Israel had a negative [09:31] swing of over 70%. [09:35] And of course, it's very much related to [09:37] your question to Netanyahu. Look, uh [09:40] Dan, there's no easy way to say this. Uh [09:44] Netanyahu has basically refused during [09:46] the war to articulate any positive day [09:49] after in Gaza. H and by that uh Israel [09:52] has allowed wars images to define Israel [09:56] in American minds. Now there's no doubt [09:59] that he understands large chunks of the [10:02] American society that he's connected. He [10:05] grew up in America. He studied in [10:07] America. He speaks with with an American [10:10] accent. But the America that he [10:12] understands to a large extent [10:15] is is not the current America. It's a [10:17] very Republican, [10:20] white, Christian America. And while this [10:23] is a very important part of America and [10:26] historically this is America, h it's not [10:28] the current America. And what you're [10:30] seeing actually is that he has placed a [10:34] bet uh spenting spending two decades on [10:38] on on Israel uh being part of a [10:42] political side in in the United States. [10:45] And there's no surprise that this is uh [10:48] what is happening right now. Israel has [10:50] already lost Democrats to a large [10:53] extent. Uh and and now it's starting to [10:56] lose Republicans and and because of that [11:00] his visit is is a testimony to Israel's [11:04] position there. I I just saw a tweet by [11:06] Brad Sherman. It was heavily quoted, [11:09] Congressman Brad Sherman was heavily [11:11] quoted by Israeli press basically [11:14] saying, "Look at the data." And he says [11:16] that as a friend of Israel, one of the [11:18] last few friends that Israel has within [11:20] the Democratic establishment in [11:22] Congress, you Israeli media should [11:25] translate this and make this message go [11:28] to every Israeli. and his message there [11:31] was it's because of Smootrich and Benir [11:34] and corporation and the way that the [11:36] Netao government is is uh conducting [11:39] itself. Now I want to say something. [11:41] It's not only about that. It's about [11:44] parts of the American political system [11:47] going to extremes. Uh one part [11:50] definitely with the Democrats uh [11:52] divorcing itself from ideas of American [11:55] power in the world and in the Middle [11:57] East connecting itself to [11:58] postcolonialist narratives. There's no [12:00] doubt about that. Anyone who says it's [12:02] only about Israel is going to be [12:04] extremely shallow. I I presented that [12:06] case, but I want to be very clear and [12:09] even minded as to this. And the other [12:13] side is of course populist nationalism, [12:15] anti-semitism that is also rising in the [12:17] right. So you have anti-semitism on on [12:20] on the left, parts of the progressive [12:22] left. You have anti-semitism on parts of [12:25] of the right, the nationalist right now [12:27] rising. And this also contributes and [12:30] together with conspiracy theories to uh [12:33] Israel's collapse in public opinion in [12:36] the United States right now. [12:38] >> Nadav, I just before I bring me back in, [12:40] I do want to um push back on one point [12:44] which is you cited Brad Sherman and I [12:46] noted the same and observed his tweets. [12:48] Maybe we should we should include them [12:50] uh in the show notes or link to them in [12:51] the show notes because they were [12:52] important. But but I think what is [12:54] striking what what Brad Sherman doesn't [12:56] say in his in his tweets, which is what [12:58] I think is really going on, and I I've [13:00] hear this directly from friends of mine [13:02] who are pro-Israel Democrats, members of [13:04] Congress, mainstream Democrats, is the [13:07] safest space for them to be in right now [13:11] is is pro-Israel but anti- Netanyahu [13:15] because they're pro-Israel, but they [13:17] need a space in the Democratic party, [13:18] which has become so hostile to Israel. [13:20] So, how do they strike a balance between [13:22] being pro-Israel and dealing with these [13:24] forces within the Democratic Party? And [13:26] as you and I are talking about right [13:27] now, even beyond just the Democratic [13:28] party and that place is to say, "No, no, [13:31] no. We are hostile to Netanyahu. He's [13:33] the problem, but we still hug Israel." [13:36] And that that is to me like a temporary [13:39] space is a quote unquote safe space for [13:42] I think pro-Israel Democrats right now. [13:45] Uh the question I have though is if [13:48] Netanyahu is no longer in the seat, if [13:51] Netanyahu is no longer prime minister, [13:54] do because when I ask these pro-Israel [13:55] Democrats this question, do you really [13:57] think things are going to change that [13:58] much? Some believe yes, some concede no. [14:01] I mean, if you look at the the case [14:02] against Israel on genocide, the ICJ case [14:06] against Israel on genocide. um when [14:08] South Africa filed its case against [14:11] Israel on genocide, it was December of [14:15] 2023, a mere months after October 7th. [14:18] So it wasn't during this rage of quote [14:21] unquote, you know, unending settler [14:24] violence. It wasn't during this period [14:26] that, you know, Ben was running around [14:28] Israel and the images over here in the [14:30] United States of him wanting to put all [14:32] the, you know, all Palestinian [14:34] terrorists in a noose. It was none of [14:36] that was actually going on. All the [14:37] focus of the world was on Israel's [14:40] immediate response to the war. And [14:42] that's when the genocide craze came up [14:45] kicked off. And you used your point of [14:46] comparison 2018. I think the the [14:48] interesting polling is to look at like [14:50] where Israel's was positioned in public [14:53] polling in the months after October 7th [14:54] relative to today. And I think the [14:56] decline began once there was this [14:58] endless barrage of charges of genocide. [15:01] >> So I I want to I I'm very briefly going [15:03] to respond to that. I think you're [15:05] absolutely right to point out Dan that [15:08] first of all Israel's problem with [15:12] with its status its position in the US [15:15] it's is much wider than Netanyahu so [15:18] blaming everything on Netanyahu in that [15:20] sense would be again superficial on the [15:23] one hand but it's Israel's friends in [15:26] Washington and what I say everybody [15:28] knows in Washington that are saying it's [15:30] all nono it's Israel's friends as you [15:33] said Dan in the Democratic Party who say [15:35] it's the Netanyahu government. I'm [15:36] listening very carefully even with [15:38] Bernie Sanders uh who's definitely [15:41] against military aid to Israel right now [15:43] says he speaks about ending military aid [15:46] to the Netanyahu government. So he's [15:49] allowing himself maybe not to go through [15:54] the full circle of saying I'm I'm going [15:57] to cut off every aid to to Israel in the [16:02] future. So by confining it to the [16:04] Netanyahu government, it's Israel's [16:06] friends who are trying to save [16:08] themselves. Now if you look at the [16:10] conversation online on X and many other [16:13] platforms, what's the conversation [16:15] there? I'm talking the the American [16:17] conversation is between people who [16:19] despise Israel so much who indict Israel [16:24] to the extent that they're saying it's [16:25] not about Netanyahu. I get that these [16:27] comments. It's not about Netanyahu. It's [16:29] your spin. It's the Israeli spin to say [16:31] it's about Netanyahu. It's about the [16:33] country. They're trying to indict the [16:34] entire country in that sense. Now, just [16:38] to your point about the American public, [16:40] right now, young Republicans are polling [16:44] as to Israel very much uh or very [16:47] similarly with the trends that young [16:49] Democrats had a couple of years ago. [16:52] And this should worry us enormously. Uh [16:55] one final sentence about that uh which [16:58] is the obvious sentence. If you ask [17:01] senior people within uh the Israeli [17:04] political sphere, defense [17:06] administration, wherever, I need to be [17:10] absolutely clear about that. The US [17:12] support for Israel on many levels, not [17:14] only the military aid or not mostly the [17:15] military aid is essential to its [17:17] security. It's essential to its [17:20] existence. And the the sentence you keep [17:23] on hearing is that Israel cannot survive [17:25] without the support, the active support [17:28] of the United States. And you hear that [17:30] sentence again and again. [17:31] >> Before I bring Amat back in, just very [17:33] very briefly just so what are does any [17:36] of this have implications for what [17:37] Netanyahu does in his address to the UN? [17:40] >> No, not really. Because he's going to [17:43] have a campaign speech as Amit said. By [17:45] the way, take a look at what Netanyahu [17:47] did before that campaign speech. He he [17:48] aired a video attacking Mandani saying [17:51] he's going to expose [17:52] >> as he was leaving Israel. Yeah. [17:53] >> He's going to expose Mandani or facts [17:55] about Mandani. [17:56] >> He said in English. Yeah. Mani is is [17:58] attacking Netanyahu. You and I spoke [18:00] about this a week ago. I told you we're [18:02] speaking on the sidewalk in New York and [18:04] I was I told you if if Netanyahu can [18:06] stage a march on city hall in the center [18:10] of New York uh protesting Mdani, just a [18:13] one-man protest, it would be the best [18:15] thing he could do for his campaign. He's [18:17] picking up this fight. But this is a [18:19] classic example. Is this good for [18:22] Israel's uh allies, few allies it has [18:26] left, that NetA will pick up a fight [18:28] with Mayor Mandani? Yeah, that's a fair [18:30] question. Amid, I want to uh I want to [18:32] come back to something you've argued in [18:34] the past that in Israel's political [18:36] system, this issue barely counts. This [18:39] issue of how Israeli politicians [18:42] perform, how they perform on the [18:44] international stage, how they perform in [18:46] English. It's you you referenced this [18:47] earlier. It's just not the same. When [18:49] it's described as a security threat, the [18:51] way Nav just did, it gets more [18:52] attention. But otherwise, it just [18:54] doesn't get the same attention. But to [18:56] diaspora Jews, how Israel presents [18:59] itself is considered an area of [19:02] vulnerability or an area of threat or [19:04] just a real problem. I mean, this [19:06] diaspora Jews, I'm just telling you, [19:07] like I sit around Shabbat dinner [19:09] conversation tables, I speak at events. [19:11] I get these questions all the time. The [19:13] way the Israeli government, the way [19:15] certain ministers in the Israeli [19:16] government present Israel to the world [19:19] has big implications for us living over [19:21] here. Do Israeli voters understand that? [19:24] Yes, more than in the past, less than it [19:26] should be. Um, I don't want to insult [19:29] Nadav here, but Nadav used to be the um, [19:32] foreign affairs editor on uh, channel [19:35] 10. And I think this is the most [19:37] miserable job in the Israeli press [19:39] because I I I want to explain what [19:42] foreign news or international news are [19:45] in Israel. If you are the a [19:48] correspondent in London like I was in [19:50] Adav. Uh so reports from London are what [19:53] Brits think about Israel, the Israeli [19:56] singer arriving in London, uh the [19:58] Israeli football team playing in London, [20:01] etc., etc. Okay, the same applies for [20:03] the United States. So the moment it is [20:07] going to cross the the the door, the [20:10] barrier from foreign [20:13] affairs to domestic affairs is the [20:16] moment when for instance the next [20:19] administration is not going to veto a a [20:23] UN resolution against Israel, thus [20:25] sanctioning various banks and and then [20:27] the and the companies etc. But then it's [20:30] going to be too late. So I do think [20:33] there is an understanding of the [20:34] severity of the problem. I see more [20:37] coverage than in the past. However, I'm [20:39] not sure that Red Sherman's words [20:43] uh were heard by more than a bunch of [20:46] Israelis and I think they should be. We [20:48] did have like push notifications which [20:50] was very interesting by every major news [20:54] group in Israel and [20:56] >> about Brad Sherman [20:58] >> about Brad Sherman's warning. And you [21:00] know what? I'm going to say something [21:01] that Amit will I think agree with. I I [21:04] think that these push notification had a [21:06] lot to do with the fact that it was very [21:08] critical of Netona and it's an election [21:10] season. [21:11] >> Absolutely. Um um but and yet if you ask [21:14] 100 Israelis in in the streets of [21:17] Jerusalem or Tel Aviv who Brad Sherman [21:19] is and what has he just said? I guess [21:22] that 98 out of them will say I have no [21:25] idea. Uh but the the severity of the [21:29] problem grows and grows and I agree with [21:32] Nadav that it I mean it's quite awkward. [21:37] It cuts both ways when both Israelis and [21:40] anti-Israelis claim that it's not only [21:42] Netanyahu, for instance, is as someone [21:45] who supports um you know a staunch um [21:50] military strong military activities in [21:53] Gaza, Syria and Lebanon and of course [21:55] Iran. I don't think that had had [21:58] Eisenkot or Laid or Bennett been in [22:01] office, it would something would be [22:03] would have been different. However, [22:06] since we know that Netanyahu is [22:09] considered in in the United States as a [22:11] the first Republican prime minister of [22:14] Israel, Israel's prime minister from the [22:16] Republican party. So, I think someone [22:19] else would have eased the the the the [22:23] pain, not more than this. I I'll add [22:26] something more important. I think it it [22:29] has more to do with the coalition than [22:31] with Netanyahu himself. And I'll [22:33] explain. I do think that if the next [22:36] coalition is going to be a unity [22:38] government, even if led by Netanyahu, [22:40] it's going to be very different than a [22:42] coalition in which Bengavir is a senior [22:46] member of the government and a senior [22:48] minister, someone that speaks out loudly [22:52] the the second most or the third most [22:55] famous Israeli after Netanyahu and [22:57] Galgadot. I do think that the unity [22:59] government might might change a bit the [23:01] route to which Israel uh goes. [23:04] >> Nadav, I mentioned in the introduction [23:06] FDD recently published a a case study [23:09] that that forecasts a financial title [23:14] wave against Israel. It argues that the [23:16] sanctions mechanism originally built to [23:17] strangle the Iranian government actually [23:20] ironically could be turned against [23:22] Israel. Do you think that a change in [23:25] Israel's leadership could change that [23:27] trajectory that FDD is sounding the [23:29] alarm on? [23:31] >> I think it can. I think it can. And and [23:33] let me explain why. So, I agree that [23:36] Israel's uh problems with American [23:38] public opinion run long and deep [23:42] and they are connected to changes within [23:44] the American society. they are connected [23:47] to [23:49] a desire of some sort of isolationism [23:52] that you see both on the left on the far [23:54] left on the on the not so far right. So, [23:59] so there's there's a bunch of issues [24:01] there, but but here's the thing, Dan. [24:04] Uh, this government is toxic. Uh, having [24:08] Benvir as a minister responsible for the [24:10] police, you go through Jewish [24:13] communities, I do this sometimes, Amit [24:16] does this sometimes. [24:18] That's usually like the second question. [24:21] First question is usually about the war. [24:23] Second question is about the violence uh [24:26] in Judan Samar in the West Bank. [24:28] And it's substantial. And I think that [24:32] uh a leader who governs with Benver and [24:34] Motric shouldn't be shocked when [24:35] Americans starts judging Israel by by [24:38] the company that that he keeps in [24:41] government. So yeah, absolutely [24:45] you can have tremendous [24:48] I think advances as to Israel's position [24:52] or at least stop the collapse, hold the [24:55] collapse if you make some changes there [24:58] and we spoke about these changes. First [25:00] of all, Israel needs to be out of the [25:03] news cycle. Secondly, the decision is to [25:06] the war with Iran with Iran. Uh one of [25:09] the first thing we said on this show, we [25:11] said this on this show uh and on on many [25:14] other places is how will this influence [25:16] Israel's position in the United States [25:18] that for the first time Israel basically [25:21] pitched a war and participated in a war [25:24] with the United States? Will it play [25:25] well for Israel? And some of us were [25:28] were very troubled about this from day [25:30] one that this would be used by uh rivals [25:34] of Israel, by Israel haters and frankly [25:38] by anti-semites. [25:40] Uh I talked about this blood label as to [25:42] the Iraq war, right? That Israel somehow [25:46] pushed for the Iraq war. It's a blood [25:47] label. It's not blood liel to say that [25:49] that Israel [25:50] >> it is it is I just just so we're clear. [25:52] I mean it is factually incorrect. It's a [25:54] blood liel and there's nothing to it. [25:56] The I was involved I worked in the Bush [25:58] administration. The prime minister's run [26:00] was warning against the US getting [26:01] involved with Iraq. [26:03] >> Exactly. And and you have you know [26:04] Walden Mir Shamir and all the rest which [26:06] made like credits academic credits to [26:08] that. Well, it's not a lie to say that [26:10] Israel you know had a presentation in [26:13] the White House explaining why we should [26:15] fight a war against Iran together and [26:18] and now this is being used by by Israel [26:21] haters all across the field. So, so [26:24] there are steps to be made, you know, [26:26] when the stock price is um in such a low [26:29] position and management looks like Ben [26:31] Greer and smart witch h then there are [26:34] easy things that you can do in order to [26:37] at least have the chance of improvement. [26:39] Okay. Uh I want to shift now to [26:43] developments in the election because we [26:45] are we have been getting a lot of [26:46] questions and obviously we're following [26:47] quite closely the the day-to-day [26:49] developments in elections. Um so I want [26:52] to uh as it relates to the various [26:54] campaigns Amit over the past week [26:57] Netanyahu's block and when we say his [26:59] block we mean the Likud which is his [27:01] party and then the other parties that at [27:03] least have have been able to populate [27:05] his current government whether or not [27:06] they um they would all serve with him in [27:08] in a future government remains to be [27:10] seen. But if you add up the various [27:13] players that are in his current [27:14] government or those that we assume would [27:16] be in a future Netanyahu government, [27:18] that block has gained some momentum [27:22] which has been surprising because as you [27:23] and I have talked about a meet, the two [27:26] issues that Netanyahu did not want this [27:27] election to be about was the third [27:30] anniversary of October 7th, therefore [27:32] anchoring a debate about who was [27:33] responsible for October 7th, and two, [27:36] the Karedi draft exemption at a time [27:38] that so many non Kharim, nonorthod, [27:41] ultraorththodox Jews have been [27:43] overstretched as it relates to their [27:44] service in the IDF and then they're [27:46] they're overall feeling stretched [27:48] economically. These are the two issues [27:50] Netanyahu did not want to be central to [27:52] the election campaign and they are and [27:54] yet it seems like he's gaining momentum. [27:56] So what what actually is going on? How [27:59] would you describe the current state of [28:01] the race? [28:01] >> Okay, so so there are three changes that [28:04] happened. one uh is that the Arab [28:06] parties um actually organized themselves [28:11] in a better electoral structure which [28:15] actually increased [28:16] >> three the three political parties that [28:18] are Israeli Arab parties running in this [28:21] they organized themselves how what what [28:23] did they do? So, so the we now have only [28:26] two parties rather than three in the [28:28] past which means that the more their [28:31] power is increased the electoral power [28:33] of the Zionist opposition is decreased. [28:37] Why? Because I mean proportionally [28:39] speaking if the Arab parties get more [28:41] seats it necessarily means that the [28:43] other Jewish parties get less seats. [28:46] thus [28:48] putting them putting Eisenot farther [28:50] from the 61 seats that he desperately [28:54] needs. So just just so our listeners [28:56] understand you're saying the Arab [28:57] parties I just want to make this clear [28:59] the Arab parties gaining strength comes [29:03] at the at the expense of what we will [29:05] call the Eisenkotled block which is the [29:07] opposition block. It comes at his [29:09] expense which therefore the quote [29:11] unquote right-wing block is a [29:13] beneficiary of the Arab party's growing [29:16] in strength. [29:17] >> Yes. And we have a two new parties. One [29:20] is a right-wing party but led by offer [29:23] the former IDF commander and one is a [29:26] center party u a weird mixture of [29:29] reservists and a in my opinion lunatic [29:32] populist professor for economy. uh and [29:36] they pass the threshold at least [29:38] meanwhile [29:39] >> meaning they pass threshold meaning [29:40] they're going to they're performing well [29:41] enough to get into the Knesset [29:43] >> yes thus shrinking the opposition which [29:46] is the real thing that that that [29:48] happened in each and every poll in [29:50] Israel we do not see an increase in the [29:54] power of the coalition we do see however [29:58] a decrease in the electoral uh um power [30:02] of the opposition which puts them very [30:06] very far away from 61 seats needed to [30:10] sworn to to have a stable government [30:12] sworn in. If Netanyahu [30:16] prevents Eisenkot from having a new [30:19] government sworn in, it necessarily [30:21] means that Netanyahu is still a prime [30:23] minister even though in a transition [30:25] government and it worked for him in the [30:27] past. He exhausted between 2019 and [30:31] 2020. He exhausted Benigans in three [30:34] consecutive election campaigns then uh [30:37] uh talked him into his rotation [30:40] government. And I think the same is [30:42] going to happen here. If the election [30:45] are going to end up exactly as the [30:48] mainstream media polls show, it [30:50] necessarily means that either Israel is [30:53] going again to the polls with Netanyahu [30:56] as a transition as a prime minister in [30:59] transition or that Netanyahu is going to [31:01] form a coalition with the other with the [31:03] other side. That's I I think I think [31:06] this is the those are the two most [31:09] probable options. And that's why when I [31:11] see on polymark in poly market that [31:14] Eisenot still scores something like 51% [31:17] to Netanyahu's [31:19] 28 or 29. I would say that they [31:22] overestimate Eisenot's chances and [31:25] underestimates underestimate Netanyahu's [31:28] chances. [31:28] >> Okay. But just just understand you said [31:30] there are three things going on. One, [31:32] the strength of the Arab parties have [31:33] come at the expense of the second is the [31:36] new rightwing parties, the new smaller [31:38] center rightwing parties [31:39] >> that that give that give a place. But [31:41] hold on, but that that's important [31:43] because for those voters that can't [31:46] stomach voting for Netanyahu and Lud, [31:48] but are still rightwing. It gives them a [31:50] place to go so that Netanyahu ultimately [31:54] is the beneficiary of those votes, but [31:56] yet creating a space for them not to [31:58] actually vote for Netanyahu. Right. Is [31:59] that what you're basically saying? [32:00] Exactly. And the third thing is that [32:03] Netanyahu has lost control that the [32:05] opposition has lost control over the [32:07] agenda of the election campaign. I [32:10] haven't heard the name or the the the [32:13] issue the issue over the last few weeks. [32:16] It's only about security diplomacy and [32:19] the the Arab the the the alliance the [32:21] alleged alliance between Eisenkot and [32:23] the Arab parties. Now I think it it [32:26] emanates less than Netanyahu's abilities [32:29] in running campaigns which in my opinion [32:32] have decreased significantly over the [32:34] last few years but first and foremost [32:37] from you know mistakes of in my opinion [32:42] very stupid mistakes made by the [32:43] opposition when Eisenkot says publicly [32:48] under his name that he is going to form [32:51] a minority government with the Arab [32:54] parties is abstained. I I mean it it [32:57] necessarily drags the entire discourse [33:00] towards the question of do we really [33:02] want a coalition based on the Arab [33:05] parties. People are not in the details [33:08] and that's I think it's a grave mistake [33:10] made by Eisenkot. [33:12] I want to tell you about the [33:13] organization sponsoring this episode. [33:16] Meenda Vida Dome, Israel's National [33:19] Emergency Services System, which runs [33:21] Israel's entire national blood supply. [33:24] Years ago, they realized that a national [33:26] service needs a central infrastructure, [33:28] and Israel's blood supply must be kept [33:30] safe no matter what. So, they built an [33:32] underground facility. The Marcus [33:35] National Blood Services Center in Ramla [33:37] was designed to keep working through [33:39] missile chemical and biological attacks [33:41] and through natural disasters. It was [33:44] completed before October 7th at a time [33:47] when three stories underground struck a [33:49] lot of people as more than anyone would [33:51] ever need. Nobody knew what was coming. [33:54] MDA built it anyway. During the war with [33:57] Iran, MDA moved its entire command and [33:59] dispatch operation underground. Every [34:02] ambulance in the country was being [34:03] directed from inside a facility somebody [34:06] decided to build years earlier. That [34:09] decision was made possible by donors. [34:11] Help fund emergency response at [34:13] afmda.org/callme. [34:20] Okay, Nadav, I have been struck by [34:22] Eisenkott's campaign because by my [34:24] lights, it's basically a campaign [34:28] without a message other than he's not [34:30] Netanyahu, right? He his message to me [34:33] and you you're closer to this than I am, [34:34] so I'm I'm asking you this question, but [34:36] but from my vantage point, the message [34:38] of the of Eisenhot is I'm a better man [34:41] than Netanyahu. I'm a better character [34:42] than Netanyahu. Uh I am I am not [34:45] Netanyahu. And we can, you know, we can [34:47] we can explore layers and layers of of [34:50] what that means. [34:51] >> I I just have, at least in a US context, [34:54] I follow campaigns in the US much closer [34:56] than than I follow campaigns in Israel. [34:58] But to me, that rarely works. That that [35:01] you're basically handing whoever you're [35:03] running against to to kind of frame the [35:06] the the issues and the themes and the [35:08] question that the campaign or the [35:10] election is answering. And that's the [35:12] jam that that Eisenhot is now in. Um, do [35:16] you agree with with me on this? And if [35:18] so, or if not, there's some problem. So, [35:21] what do you think Eisenot needs to do? [35:22] >> Well, first of all, uh, I I agree and I [35:25] I basically asked Eisenot people a month [35:28] and a half ago. They were at the peak uh [35:30] of their polling and everything looked [35:32] wonderful. But people who understand [35:34] politics and uh, yourself and Amit and [35:38] me have been sort of hovering around [35:40] politics for many years, understand that [35:42] you don't see in the polls right now. [35:45] what people who know politics or [35:47] understand politics uh see at the moment [35:50] polls are are typically true for today [35:53] but it takes time for crisis to be [35:57] actually exposed and this gap of what is [36:00] the Eisenot campaign was was something [36:03] that people could see early on now there [36:05] there is a campaign for instance [36:07] conscription so if you're asking what's [36:10] the essence of the campaign the essence [36:11] of the campaign is I'm going to form a [36:13] normal government and we're going to [36:15] have a conscription for all, but I'm [36:18] going to be more lenient towards the [36:21] ultraorththodox. He's more lenient in [36:23] the other change blogs. He's [36:25] traditionalist. He has a list that is [36:27] relatively conservative. Dan, I don't [36:29] think that you're exposed to it. It's a [36:31] it's a more conservative right-wing list [36:33] than the one that Natali Bennett has. [36:35] So, Eisenkot has a more right-wing list [36:37] of members of Kesset, plausible members [36:39] of Kesset than than Bennett has. So he [36:42] conducted the list. He has very popular [36:45] people there, important people. People [36:47] like um the mother of Aner Shapi who is [36:52] really the hero. [36:54] >> Honor Shapiro was Hersh Goldberg [36:55] Poland's best friend. He was killed on [36:57] October 7th in the shelter where uh [37:00] where Hirs was taken hostage from. I [37:01] just [37:02] >> where he heroically threw grenade after [37:04] grenade out of the shelter sacrificing [37:06] his life. He has Alisaf Parrots whose uh [37:10] uh both of his brothers uh were killed [37:14] in action. [37:15] He has truper who who's considered a [37:18] very popular politician. So there [37:20] there's a bunch of things happening [37:21] there but the messaging is off because [37:25] as you said Dan there is some like [37:29] negative campaign but what are you [37:32] promising to these liquid voters that [37:35] you want to hold to that have supported [37:37] Netanyahu in the past? What are you [37:39] giving them? And that was my question to [37:42] the Eisenkot people a while back. Now, [37:45] Eisenhot is going to start his campaign [37:48] uh after the Netanyahu speech sort of [37:51] evapor evaporates from the public [37:53] discourse which will be probably Monday [37:56] and then Eisenkot is going to make some [37:59] moves, significant moves uh in his [38:03] campaign. And by moves I mean think [38:05] about Aud Barak promising to leave [38:07] Lebanon in a year back in 1999 before he [38:10] won the elections against Netanyahu. [38:12] think about Barack offering a [38:15] conscription law back in 1999. So these [38:18] are real moves of a campaign and [38:20] Eisenkot as you said Dan has not has not [38:22] done them and I think he doesn't he [38:24] didn't offer anything substantial. I [38:26] I'll give you one example that is [38:28] provocative. Okay. Uh and I I'm not sure [38:30] he should do that. But he could have [38:32] said look I'm going to form a government [38:34] with Netanyahu. I'm going to be the [38:36] prime minister. Netanyao is going to be [38:38] the alternate prime minister. It's [38:39] possible. And I want Netanyahu in my [38:42] government. Now, should he do that? I'm [38:44] not sure. Can he destroy his campaign? [38:47] Maybe. I have no idea. But it's an act [38:50] of campaigning. That's what I mean. And [38:52] he's not doing anything like that at the [38:54] moment. And that's a big of problem. [38:56] Now, I agree totally with Amit. This [38:58] could lead Netanyahu to uh denying his [39:02] his rivals a victory, but not forming [39:04] government himself. I just want to add [39:06] something really important. I suspect [39:08] that if there's going to be more than 62 [39:11] 63 seats against Netanyahu in the [39:12] Knesset, I've said this before on this [39:14] show, even if uh 10 of these 6263 [39:19] majority are going to be Arab members of [39:21] Knesset from nonzist parties, there's [39:24] going to come together a plan in which [39:26] Netanyahu is not going to be the prime [39:27] minister of an interim government. So if [39:30] there is a majority against Netanyahu in [39:32] the Knesset in the next Knesset, they're [39:34] going to replace the speaker. This is [39:35] for sure Amit will agree with me. that [39:37] replaced the speaker immediately uh [39:39] which is significant the speaker of [39:41] tesset and I suspect that Eisenot will [39:45] say let's form a government anyway we [39:48] can and I am immediately calling for an [39:51] election I'm the head of the interim [39:53] government if there is a majority [39:56] against Netanyahu in parliament okay [39:58] it's more plausible that that Azizenot [40:01] would be the prime minister during that [40:03] majority leading to an election while he [40:06] is the prime minister Okay. He [40:08] >> he doesn't have the votes. Amit is going [40:10] to say he doesn't have the votes. [40:11] >> I he is going to have the votes. I I [40:13] agree with Nadav and I would like to [40:15] explain the dilemma the the cruel [40:18] dilemma that the election results might [40:20] pose to Eisenkot. Let's let's say that [40:23] he achieved more seats than Netanyahu, [40:26] but he's short of 61 and the entire [40:29] opposition from the Arab parties to [40:31] Liban and everything in between is more [40:32] than 61. He has two cruel options. One [40:37] is to go again to the polls without [40:41] forming a new government, without [40:45] swearing in a new classet speaker. And [40:49] uh and then voters might say, "You [40:51] failed once. We don't want to vote you [40:53] again." The other option is to do what [40:55] Nadav has just explained, which is to [40:59] say, I'm going to have a government [41:00] sworn in, a minority government [41:02] supported from the outside by the Arab [41:04] parties. Here is the contradiction. On [41:08] one hand, he's going to be the prime [41:09] minister during the on the campa camp [41:11] campaign trail. On the other hand, he is [41:14] going to plead guilty in the worst [41:18] accusation ever made in Israeli [41:21] politics, cooperating with the [41:23] non-Zionist and anti-ionist Arab [41:24] parties. So the quid proquo is quite [41:28] complicated here. I would say as an [41:30] advisor to Eisenkot that it's the [41:32] gravest mistake is to have a minority [41:35] government based on the support of the [41:38] other parties because then Netanyahu is [41:40] really going to win an outright [41:42] majority. Part of the support for [41:44] Eiseninger today comes from right-wing [41:47] voters who do not want under any [41:50] circumstances post October 7th to have a [41:53] government supported by Aranti or by [41:55] Bala the extreme pro Palestinian party. [42:00] And that's the dilemma. I'm not envy of [42:02] Eisenkot and I think he's going to face [42:04] it in five weeks from now. [42:07] >> Okay. And Nadav, I know you have to go. [42:09] Do do you have to drop or do you have [42:10] time for one more question? [42:11] >> No, no, I have to drop. [42:12] >> Okay. Okay, we'll let you go and meet [42:13] stand for two minutes. [42:14] >> I'll answer for him. I'll give my most [42:16] doubbish possible explanation. [42:19] >> He will represent you very well. Nadav, [42:22] it's your nightmare. All right, have a [42:23] good morning. Nadav uh Amit, uh I guess [42:26] I'll wrap with this. If the elections [42:29] were held today [42:31] resulting with what the current polls [42:33] predict, what would be the most likely [42:35] outcome of this result? I would say that [42:38] my my assumption is that Israel under [42:41] this circumstances is going to face [42:43] another round of election in April 2027. [42:46] Why? Because Netanyao will be [42:49] significantly short of majority and so [42:52] does Eisento Lieberman. Now unity [42:56] government might be the solution. The [42:58] solution which I support but we have to [43:00] admit that the level of trust in [43:03] Netanyahu among the opposition leaders [43:04] is very low to say the least. they are [43:07] not members of his fan club to say the [43:09] least and they do not trust him. On the [43:12] other hand, he will not agree to be the [43:15] second prime minister in the second part [43:16] of the term in the second half. [43:18] >> Meaning meaning if they agree to to a [43:20] rotation where different party leaders [43:22] are serve as prime minister, he he will [43:24] only agree to that if he's in the first [43:26] rotation. Eisenot is not going to agree [43:28] that Netanya will be first because [43:30] Netanyao failed to actually hand over [43:32] the prime ministership to Guns in 2020 [43:35] under the same circumstances. So they do [43:37] not trust him and Netanya will never [43:39] agree to be the second because he [43:41] doesn't want clear the air during AOC's [43:45] term or JD Vance's term and let Eisenot [43:48] enjoy the the fruits of the last two [43:51] years of President Trump. And that's why [43:53] I'm very very pessimistic. But we have [43:56] to give one warning sign. There is a [43:59] stream of polls conducted mostly by [44:01] channel 14 and channel I24, Israel's [44:04] Newsmax and Fox Newsish. [44:06] >> Channel 14 is considered very much like [44:08] the right-wing editorially uh channel [44:11] and I24 is the English language. [44:12] >> Wall Street Journal. It's like the Wall [44:14] Street Journal. It's it's a center right [44:16] leaning and they do not share the same [44:18] sentiment I would say. [44:19] >> Yeah. Right. [44:20] >> In a very British way. But um those [44:23] polls predict Netanyahu an outright [44:26] majority uh of something like 61 to 64 [44:30] seats. So if they are right and the [44:32] mainstream media polls are wrong, it [44:34] necessarily means that Netanyahu is [44:37] going to have his seventh term as the [44:39] prime minister and we have to bear it in [44:41] mind. Now I do not know who is going to [44:44] be the winner but we have we I mean post [44:49] October 7th and all those you know the [44:51] what we call the concepts I want us not [44:55] to be in a conceptia that says that [44:57] necessarily that that the results are [44:59] going to be necessarily like the [45:01] mainstream media polls to be honest I [45:03] really don't know [45:04] >> okay but net out here amit just just so [45:07] we're clear am you are here on call me [45:09] back predicting [45:11] And I I usually say we won't hold you to [45:13] this prediction, but we're going to hold [45:14] you we will hold you to this prediction. [45:16] Okay. So there's no way out. All right. [45:18] You are predicting that the most likely [45:21] scenario is after this election, [45:23] Israelis are headed to a new round of [45:25] elections. [45:26] >> Absolutely. And that would be in April. [45:29] I'll put it differently. If these are [45:31] the results, Israel is going to to have [45:34] another election campaign in 2027. I'm [45:37] not sure if in April or it's going to be [45:39] to last for two more months because I [45:41] think is going to somehow form a short [45:44] living government but we are not going [45:46] to see a stable government. We are going [45:49] to see in my opinion a a uh another [45:52] round of election. [45:53] >> Okay, we will leave it there. Thank you [45:56] for this as always and uh you [45:58] represented yourself and you represented [46:00] Nadav very well even though he may not [46:03] feel that way. [46:04] >> Absolutely. I'm sure Nadav would agree [46:05] with me. [46:07] >> All right. [46:08] >> Thank you so much. [46:09] >> Good seeing you. [46:10] >> Bye-bye. [46:19] >> If Call Me Back is where you come for [46:21] honest conversations about Israel and [46:23] the Jewish world, please hit subscribe [46:26] and also share it with a friend. And if [46:28] you missed our last episode, it's worth [46:30] going back for. See you next time.
