In October, Israelis will elect their government for the first time since October 7th, and this one feels like a pivotal moment. But Israel's electoral system works differently than most people assume, and understanding it is the only way to understand what's actually at stake.
The Knesset has 120 seats, which makes 61 the most important number in Israeli politics. No single party ever wins a majority, so the prime minister isn't necessarily the candidate with the most votes. It's the candidate with the best chance of building a coalition. That gives enormous leverage to smaller parties representing narrow slices of the population.
Right now three candidates are in the running: former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot. You might expect Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to be the dividing line between them. They aren't. The most contested issues are internal, including whether to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7th massacre, and whether Haredi Jews should continue to be exempt from mandatory military service. That second question sits at the heart of who will sit with whom, and which smaller parties will end up delivering someone to 61.
I'll keep breaking down what's happening as we get closer to October.
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