Transcript [00:00] They're rebuilding their ballistic [00:01] capacities, rebuilding their terror [00:03] capabilities, they're enriching uranium, [00:06] they're down, they're severely wounded, [00:08] but they're not out. They're far from [00:10] out. [00:11] >> government allocated [00:14] the Iron Dome batteries [00:16] to an Arab country to defend itself. [00:19] >> The stakes of this election are so [00:22] consequential for Israel, for Israel's [00:25] Arab neighbors, for the West because the [00:28] Islamic Republic of Iran has targeted [00:32] Israel for destruction. [00:33] >> Without question, this is really the [00:35] best model of a what I would call a [00:37] dysfunctional democratic system which [00:40] actually works out and functions at the [00:42] end of the day. [00:57] >> Welcome to a special edition of between [00:59] Washington and Jerusalem Democracies in [01:01] Action. I'm Dan Diker, president of the [01:03] Jerusalem Center for Security and [01:04] Foreign Affairs, and I'm joined by my [01:06] dear friend and colleague of many years, [01:09] uh Lieutenant Colonel Reserve Attorney [01:12] Maurice Hirsch. Maurice, it's great to [01:14] have you with us. Uh you're really one [01:16] of the reigning experts in Israel in [01:18] international law, [01:20] um Israeli politics, diplomacy. So, it's [01:22] great the day after uh the [01:26] really dramatic elections in Israel, [01:29] which actually continue because Israel [01:31] is the only country in the world where [01:33] there is no one election day. It has to [01:36] be like the Talmud. There has to be [01:38] further argumentation and further [01:39] deliberation, and we won't really know [01:42] the final tally for another until uh [01:45] Friday, [01:46] >> It's an eight-day process according to [01:48] the law. [01:49] >> Eight-day process. So, this is, you [01:50] know, this is like an ongoing Jewish [01:52] wedding where you have a wedding and [01:53] then 7 days of celebration following the [01:56] wedding. That's what we do in the [01:57] elections. But as we were saying just [01:59] before we went live here, Morrison, and [02:01] uh you've been here for many decades and [02:03] have have participated in so many [02:05] elections, have analyzed elections. [02:07] Um the context here is this is a perfect [02:12] model of democracy, flourishing [02:15] democracy in the middle of, you know, [02:18] the earthquake that is defined as the [02:20] Middle East, is it not? [02:22] >> Without question, this is really the [02:23] best model of a what I would call a [02:25] dysfunctional democratic system, which [02:28] actually works out and functions well [02:31] at the end of the day. Um we have just I [02:34] I think, Dan, we need to explain to some [02:36] of the listeners just the basics of the [02:38] system. 120 seats, you need 61 seats [02:42] really majority to form a ruling [02:45] government. That's what it happens in [02:47] Israel's 78, coming up 79 years. There [02:51] has never been a government that has [02:53] managed or one party that has managed to [02:55] gain more than 61 seats. It's always [02:58] means that everyone has to form a [03:00] coalition. It's always give and take. [03:02] It's always one side has to really give [03:05] into the demands of the other side and [03:07] and and really work together. That's [03:10] what makes our dysfunctional almost [03:12] parliament because no one ever wins an [03:14] outright majority. The closest anyone [03:17] has ever got, by the way, was Menachem [03:19] Begin. 1981, he won 47 seats. [03:23] That's the closest we've got. So, so in [03:25] this dysfunctionality of of of of small [03:29] parties, bigger parties, everyone has to [03:31] find really that golden path. [03:34] How to put together a coalition, how to [03:36] form a working government, which of the [03:39] different values of the different [03:42] elements of the government are really [03:44] going to be the winning out parties. [03:45] Some people say that well, this is a [03:47] Haredi party government. [03:49] >> The Haredi [03:51] >> Haredi meaning ultra-Orthodox. The [03:52] ultra-orthodox have their certain [03:54] influence on every government because [03:56] they've been a really an integral part [03:58] of those governments all the way [04:00] through. The left wing, the right wing [04:02] as it as it's seen more on on security [04:04] issues, less so on on on financial [04:07] issues. I think that on financial [04:09] issues, economics, uh um there the [04:11] parties have a pretty much a [04:14] a very very common thread. And what [04:16] you're talking about is these different [04:17] sectorial differences. And this is where [04:20] it's been since 1948. [04:22] >> You know, Maurice, when we use the word [04:25] dysfunctional, there are certain [04:27] normative dysfunctionalities by [04:29] definition in a parliamentary democracy. [04:33] And then there's the you know, if we [04:34] looked at a graph of the range of [04:36] dysfunctionality, [04:38] you know, you've got on the on the more [04:40] positive side, the British system, which [04:42] is a more stable parliamentary system of [04:45] proportional representation. But then [04:47] again, also certain geographic direct [04:51] elections of representatives. And then [04:53] you've got the really sort of crazy [04:55] parliamentary democracies that are [04:57] by definition more unstable like the [04:59] Italian system. And Israel sort of fits [05:02] into that. When I talk about [05:04] dysfunctionality, [05:06] just picking up on on this sort of [05:08] loaded word that you that you that [05:10] you're sharing with us, it's that in [05:12] Israel what we have seen in the last [05:15] several elections is truly something [05:18] dysfunctional in which there are a [05:21] number of parties that have [05:25] undertaken to boycott the sitting prime [05:28] minister and therefore forcing the prime [05:30] minister, which is some people say to BB [05:33] or not to BB in this election. That to [05:35] to quote the Shakespeare, to be or not [05:37] to be. [05:39] And that is one of the reasons why many [05:41] misunderstand in the international [05:44] community, both media and governments [05:46] and lawmakers [05:49] why [05:50] the the current Israeli coalition was [05:53] very narrow and very hawkish, very much [05:55] off to the right because that was the [05:57] only coalition in 2022 [06:00] that A, the sitting Prime Minister was [06:03] was [06:04] Mr. Bibi was able to muster because [06:07] there were others that said we were just [06:09] not going to sit with him. He's been the [06:10] Prime Minister for too many years. The [06:12] October 7th uh [06:14] security catastrophe [06:16] has pushed me away, etc. etc. etc. [06:19] That's number two um in you know, in in [06:24] 2022 we had a very very strong voter [06:27] turnout. As you said at the beginning of [06:29] our show here, this is even greater this [06:31] is in even greater turnout. And one of [06:34] the sort of [06:35] very surprising [06:37] um aspects of the moment that we are in [06:40] right now as we have this discussion [06:42] from the middle of the Jerusalem from [06:43] the Jerusalem Center for Security [06:45] Foreign Affairs is is that we are only [06:48] in the middle of this election this [06:50] post-election process. We don't know [06:53] right now whether the Prime Minister [06:57] can cobble together a coalition. The [07:00] exit polls and the current post-election [07:03] polling reflects that he may be able to [07:07] get to that 61 magic number the minimum [07:11] majority required to form a coalition. [07:14] Possibly it depends on the several [07:17] hundred thousand [07:18] votes that have yet to be counted by [07:21] soldiers both younger soldiers and those [07:24] who are in reserve. We don't know how [07:25] that will shake out. Traditionally [07:28] soldiers especially the younger soldiers [07:30] have tended to vote more conservatively [07:33] more to the right than they have to the [07:35] center center left. So we have to wait [07:38] and and and and see. But Um, we are [07:41] right now is the the ruling Likud [07:45] faction and that and this leadership, [07:47] the current government led by the Likud [07:50] faction has [07:51] the coalition has 55 55 56 mandates out [07:55] of a required 61. So, they're missing [07:58] six mandates or five mandates to form a [08:00] coalition. The opposition has has gone [08:03] down under former Chief of Staff [08:05] Eisenkot down to 47 or 46 mandates. And [08:10] this is the real surprise. Besides one [08:13] other surprise that we'll talk about in [08:14] a second which is the incredible showing [08:16] of the Arab parties in this particular [08:18] election. [08:20] But clearly the [08:22] the dual surprise of the evening was [08:25] that that the the Likud faction was not [08:28] slated to win as many mandates as it has [08:30] and it came out almost 50% greater [08:34] number of votes than and mandates than [08:38] did the second [08:40] that the opposition leader Mr. Eisenkot. [08:42] >> What we saw then this time with the [08:44] elections was a complete almost a [08:46] complete failure of the poll system. [08:49] Running up to the elections how which [08:51] how many votes each party would get that [08:54] they were very very very slanted on most [08:58] of the different channels against [09:01] the government, against the coalition [09:03] and that turned out to be a complete [09:06] falsity. It really was there was [09:08] tremendous support for the government, [09:10] for the Likud, even for [09:14] Otzma Yehudit Ben-Gvir's party, even for [09:16] Smotrich's party and United Torah [09:18] Judaism and lesser support for [09:21] Eisenkot's party than had been [09:23] predicted. Where they also failed and [09:26] they failed almost consistently was the [09:28] Arab vote. Out of the 1.16 [09:32] million Arab Israeli Arabs that have [09:34] that have the right to vote, that's part [09:36] of the [09:37] >> Hello, [09:37] >> every Israeli Arab has the right to [09:39] vote. [09:39] >> every Israeli Arab has the right the [09:41] right to vote. But we're talking about [09:42] those over the [09:43] age of 18. It's about 1.1 I think 5.9 [09:47] million people. [09:48] >> approximately 20% of Israel's general [09:52] population are right approximately are [09:55] Arabs [09:55] >> Arabs that have the right to vote. [09:56] >> And and primarily Arab Muslim resident [10:00] citizens of Israel with all rights. I [10:03] want to I want to emphasize this with [10:04] all rights, economic, financial, social, [10:09] civil rights and human rights that that [10:12] Jewish Israelis have. [10:13] >> And and and so I've already looked at [10:14] the statistics for the for the big Arab [10:17] for the 10 big Arab populated cities in [10:20] Israel, every one of them, Dan, had a [10:23] higher than the national average turnout [10:26] for voting. The women [10:29] once [10:29] >> Close to 80%, correct? [10:30] >> Close to 80%. The [10:32] average was was about 77.3%. [10:34] The the only Arab towns had a an 80% [10:39] turnout. Umm al-Fahm, [10:42] Rahat in the south, which is very much [10:45] the party of the Arab party, Mansour [10:47] Abbas, the the the the Muslim [10:49] Brotherhood had a huge turnout. And and [10:52] so you've seen already in those [10:55] the the Arab parties, there are two big [10:57] Arab parties, almost Arab only parties, [11:00] they got over 650,000 [11:03] votes. [11:04] >> Yeah. [11:04] >> That's a big story. [11:06] >> It's a big story because what we are [11:08] seeing in Israel's Arab minority, [11:11] particularly in this election, is [11:13] actually [11:16] a direct representation of their [11:18] percentage [11:20] in the population. In other words, [11:22] traditionally because there's been lower [11:25] Arab Israeli voter turnout, they've [11:27] they've been underrepresented, if you [11:29] will, in the in the political echelons [11:33] in the Knesset. So, but here we have [11:35] something that is really surprising and [11:38] and it is really a hat tip a hat tip to [11:42] Israel's thriving democracy. But they [11:44] were, you know, every in every Arab city [11:47] and town in the state of Israel, [11:51] there was lots and lots of [11:55] police and other security protection to [11:57] make sure that every single citizen [12:00] regardless of [12:02] religion, ethnicity, background went to [12:04] put his or her paper ballot inside the [12:08] ballot box. [12:08] >> Have their opportunity to cast a vote [12:10] and influence Israel's future. Now, [12:14] as I said before we [12:16] we are [12:17] on air. I did a study a few years ago [12:20] just to look at how the Arab population [12:23] voted. And I looked at exactly that, the [12:26] Arab only towns and villages and I [12:29] found, you know, an incredible statistic [12:31] that 27% [12:33] of those who voted voted for Zionist [12:36] parties. [12:37] So, we're not talking about only the [12:39] Arabs voting for the Arabs. [12:42] A huge percentage of those who have the [12:44] right and want to vote see also the [12:47] Zionist parties as a legitimate option. [12:50] People are now I've heard some of the [12:51] commentary talking about well, the large [12:53] Arab vote is a reflection of their [12:55] rejection of [12:57] of whatever policies of the government [12:58] they be. It's not true. I think it is a [13:00] reflection of the Arab population [13:02] Israel's Arab population desire to more [13:05] participate in in what is happening in [13:08] the country and more influence the [13:09] future of the country for their own [13:11] benefit as well. [13:13] >> And you know, it's a very important [13:14] point here that you're emphasizing and [13:16] our very own Khaled Abu Toameh who is a [13:19] senior JCFA fellow and my co-host of the [13:24] Our Middle East podcast which we do in [13:27] partnership with the Jerusalem news [13:29] service just next door makes the point [13:33] that [13:34] that the Arab Israeli communities and I [13:38] don't say one community because you know [13:39] this is a region that's defined by clans [13:42] families and tribes and the Jews [13:44] probably in Israel are too. [13:45] >> Also very much the same exactly. [13:47] >> Just as a side point there were 36 [13:50] parties that you could when you go [13:52] behind the voting booth and you pull the [13:55] curtain there were so many choices that [13:58] you could actually choose from 36 [14:01] different parties. You have to takes [14:03] time behind that [14:05] in that ballot box when you're there by [14:07] yourself to to unless you know [14:08] absolutely who you're going to vote for [14:10] but Khaled makes the point that the [14:13] Israeli Arab community particularly [14:15] after the coronavirus broke out in 2020 [14:19] want far more to integrate into Israel [14:22] than to separate into Israel. And you [14:24] >> That's exactly [14:26] right. [14:26] >> is very much [14:28] an exclamation point on Khaled's point [14:30] and I think this is a very very [14:32] important point and it's also a lesson [14:35] for for this Israeli government and for [14:37] other Israeli governments is that the [14:39] Arab community in large part is is loyal [14:43] and and peace [14:45] peace pursuing citizens of the state of [14:48] Israel and they want better they want [14:51] more economic benefits and better [14:53] infrastructure and that's all fair and [14:55] that's fair enough. I will say many [14:58] people do not know many of our viewers [15:00] may be unfamiliar with the fact that it [15:02] is really the right-wing governments [15:04] that have done more for the Arab sector [15:07] in terms of passing the most recent [15:09] about a four five years ago something [15:11] called the five-year plan 500 million [15:15] shekels for infrastructure for services [15:19] to develop the Arab sector in Israel. [15:22] So, they they realize [15:24] that there is a vested interest in being [15:27] an integral active engaged part of this [15:31] thriving democratic system and then that [15:33] they can have their [15:35] their needs really answered. This is the [15:38] only democracy [15:39] in the Middle East. [15:41] I remember Professor Bernard Lewis of [15:43] blessed memory used to come to the JCFA [15:45] every year and give lectures used to [15:47] talk about Turkey as the great hope for [15:49] the Muslim world, a non-Arab Muslim [15:51] country, but since the the Erdogan the [15:54] Erdogan neo-Ottoman phenomenon there, [15:57] they've sort of retreated back into the [16:00] several several hundred year Islamist [16:03] reality. So, Israel really stands out [16:05] for its Arab minority, its Muslim [16:08] minority, its Christian minority as the [16:11] only shining light of democracy in the [16:14] entire Middle East and our neighbors [16:16] know that, too. Our neighbors know that. [16:18] >> I think our neighbors know that. They [16:20] understand that and and they also fear [16:22] to I think to a great extent democracy. [16:25] I mean, we saw just what happened also [16:26] in the Palestinian Authority, the [16:28] announcement of or the promise firstly [16:31] of Mahmoud Abbas to the international [16:34] community, I will hold elections and [16:37] then he sets elections, then he cancels [16:39] the elections as if it's just a game to [16:42] play with. [16:43] >> He just canceled the most recent [16:44] elections, right? [16:45] >> the recent elections. [16:46] >> How many how many years it was 2005 [16:49] were the last parliamentary and uh and [16:51] >> Presidential elections were in 2005. [16:53] >> In the Palestinian Authority. [16:55] >> Authority, the last parliamentary [16:57] elections were in 2006. They were meant [16:59] to be held now in parallel to Israel's [17:03] celebration of democracy. There was [17:04] meant to be that parallel celebration of [17:07] democracy for the Palestinians which [17:09] Mahmoud Abbas just canceled with [17:12] with a slide of his pen and no one can [17:15] do anything because [17:17] France, the the Canadians, the the [17:19] British, the Australians had already [17:21] paid up front [17:23] for what he had promised. They they [17:25] recognized the state of Palestine, the [17:27] democratic state of Palestine with the [17:29] elections. So, they got the recognition [17:32] and Abbas says, "There's no elections." [17:34] But, let So, so I So, I think every they [17:36] they they very much fear elections. But, [17:39] for us, it's an integral part of our [17:41] society. The Arab parties have their [17:43] representation. The the ultra-Orthodox [17:45] have their representation. The the the [17:47] religious Zionists, the the the [17:49] non-religious. There were [17:51] the the there was a party then a a [17:53] running as part of the elections that [17:55] still supports the idea of an active [17:59] engagement for making peace with the [18:02] Palestinians. [18:04] The Democratic Party. [18:05] That's what they're called run for by by [18:07] Yair Golan. [18:09] 200,000 Israelis voted for them. [18:12] That's not a small amount as well. [18:14] And when you break down all of these [18:16] different parties, how Now, the question [18:19] is going to be going forward. [18:20] >> The Democrats, though, received 10 [18:23] mandates if I'm not mistaken. Is that [18:25] true? But, that's far more than 200,000 [18:27] votes. [18:28] >> I think it's [18:29] I think it's maybe a little bit more [18:30] than 200,000 votes. I think that's still [18:32] going up and down between eight and 10 [18:35] and depending on on where they stop. Um [18:39] It It's It's a lot of votes. It's a lot [18:42] of people who believe still, even [18:45] post-October 7, [18:47] that there's an opportunity to [18:49] somehow engage in peace with the [18:50] Palestinians. Who that peace not partner [18:52] would be, I honestly don't know. But, [18:55] the [18:56] there also is that trend within Israeli [18:58] society. [19:00] Looking forward, though, [19:01] I think the question for us is going to [19:02] be [19:03] is it possible [19:05] to find the common denominators between [19:08] any of the different parties? [19:10] Is there more that joins us than there [19:13] is that divides us? [19:14] >> Well, there certainly is among the four [19:16] leading parties [19:18] coming out of yesterday's dramatic [19:20] election. First of all, the Likud [19:22] faction [19:24] um [19:24] and the prime minister that will have [19:27] somewhere between 27 and 30 or 31 [19:30] mandates, far greater than any of the [19:33] pollsters except for one, Filber [19:35] of Channel 14, predicted. But then you [19:39] in terms of a shared, aligned security [19:44] policy, you had the Likud and then you [19:47] have Eisenkot's party, what they call [19:49] the Yesh Atid or the Integrity Party as [19:51] they call themselves. And then the what [19:53] they call the Together Party, which is [19:55] former Prime Minister Bennett, and then [19:57] Lieberman's party. All of them have [19:59] placed the existential security of [20:02] Israel first on two manifested in two [20:06] ways. Number one, no additional [20:09] Palestinian October 7th terror state in [20:12] the Judea Samaria hill ridge overlooking [20:15] Ben Gurion Airport. All four parties [20:17] agree on that. [20:17] >> Common to all of them. [20:18] >> Common to all of them. And that's sort [20:20] of unusual if you look at [20:23] past decades. [20:24] >> Yeah. [20:24] >> Number two, [20:26] three of those parties except for [20:28] Eisenkot have said [20:30] we support the change of this horrific [20:34] death cult called the Islamic Republic [20:37] of Iran. And they support the the prime [20:40] minister is leading this, that he's made [20:42] this his absolute number one priority is [20:45] to cause the conditions that that that [20:47] they should be overthrown and and taken [20:49] over by a free [20:51] Iranian government and that Iran can [20:55] become an ally, not an adversary under [20:57] those conditions. Three of the leading [20:59] Israeli parties agree with that. [21:01] >> I I think there's a third or or or [21:03] another agreement that we can point to [21:05] and and it's important that people [21:07] understand. Those same parties also [21:10] support the building of Israeli [21:13] communities in Judea and Samaria and [21:15] expanding those communities [21:17] understanding that the really [21:19] fundamental security value for the [21:22] future of the state of [21:24] of Israel and as an expression of of of [21:27] the right of the Jewish people to settle [21:29] in the entire area from from from from [21:31] the from the river to the sea as the [21:33] Palestinians say. That is a common [21:36] agreement. It isn't sometimes it's [21:38] presented as one of these fanatical [21:40] views of of of of of the right wing of [21:43] this maybe of Smotrich's party. That's [21:45] not true. It is a common denominator of [21:49] most of the politics, the politicians [21:52] and the voters in Israel. And that needs [21:55] to be understood that that has become [21:58] part of the much wider consensus, part [22:01] of the understanding that the the [22:03] disengagement from the Gaza Strip in [22:06] 2005 allowed for the development of that [22:10] massive terror infrastructure that we [22:12] saw in the Gaza Strip and that that [22:14] shouldn't be allowed to happen again and [22:16] that now the existence of the Israeli [22:18] communities really does serve Israel's [22:21] critical security requirements [22:24] going forward and and so that shouldn't [22:27] be I know there's a [22:29] propensity in these days to talk about [22:31] issues of the violent settlers. [22:33] Firstly, it's not violent settlers. It's [22:35] a small group of people. Israel needs to [22:37] do more to fight those those what I've [22:40] already said in the name of the JCFA [22:43] those terrorists. We need to do more. We [22:46] can do more and we should do more. [22:48] But it [22:49] doesn't mean that we shouldn't be [22:51] settling in the land of Israel and and [22:54] that is a common denominator and [22:58] pegholing it as an extremist view [23:02] it is missing the point, is [23:04] misunderstanding Israeli society and [23:06] Israeli politics. [23:07] >> Absolutely. It's a actually a consensus [23:10] among the vast majority of Israelis that [23:14] that living in areas which is called [23:17] beyond the green line, whether it's [23:19] whether that's in parts of our capital [23:22] or whether it's in communities whether [23:26] you know it's a fraud or Elon Moreh [23:28] anywhere in Judea and Samaria. The vast [23:30] majority of Israelis [23:32] are very much on board with that. [23:34] >> What we talk about here at the at the [23:36] JCFA then, defensible borders. This idea [23:39] of Jewish settlement also in the in the [23:42] Jordan Valley. That is part of Israel's [23:45] critical security needs. And these are [23:49] consensus issues among all of these [23:51] people. You know, for those that are [23:53] unfamiliar with the [23:55] geography, the Jordan Valley is really [23:57] part of that area of Judea and Samaria. [24:00] It leads into it goes up into those [24:02] hills. It's not a separate area that is [24:05] somewhere far off. It's an integral part [24:07] of that area and when everyone [24:10] understands that [24:11] defensible borders is maintaining [24:14] Israel's control of the of the Jordan [24:15] Valley. [24:16] That that is an integral part of [24:19] everybody's security understanding [24:22] and and and something which is becoming [24:25] really a critical element in Israel's [24:27] security doctrine that can never be [24:30] changed. [24:31] And that's part of the consensus as [24:33] well. [24:33] >> Absolutely. A key part of the consensus [24:36] and we have actually [24:38] we need to spend an entire discussion [24:40] just on defensible borders which we've [24:43] just presented to the prime minister. [24:46] A book was actually handed to him as his [24:49] senior advisor came here the other day [24:51] to the JCFA [24:52] for another presentation on Islamic [24:55] warfare on October 7th which is which [24:57] all of our viewers can find at jcfa.org. [25:00] Both books, Defensible Borders after [25:02] October 7th after the October 7th [25:04] invasion and Islamic Warfare after the [25:08] October 7th massacre. Two of our latest [25:10] publications that become the manifestos, [25:14] the anchor of a larger campaign. We're [25:16] into diplomatic and strategic campaigns [25:18] here, not just research and and [25:20] producing books for the sake of it. Now, [25:23] as we sort of go to the climax of our [25:25] discussion here, let's help our viewers [25:27] understand where we stand right now and [25:30] what needs to happen in order to forge a [25:32] coalition because it's anything but [25:33] clear, Maurice. Right now, no one has, [25:36] you know, the the opposition [25:38] so-called or the change what they call [25:40] the change block has 47-48 mandates out [25:44] of a 61 needed [25:46] to form a coalition and the the [25:49] governing coalition right now under [25:52] as he's known, Mr. Bibi, [25:54] it has about 55-56. [25:57] What happens now? [25:59] Uh [25:59] >> So, now we have this next 8-day period [26:01] where the the Central Elections [26:03] Committee will finalize all the the [26:05] counting of the votes [26:07] and and will really then divide up how [26:09] does the the the the the the system [26:11] work? You take all of the the kosher [26:14] votes that have been cast in the ballot [26:16] boxes. You then divide them up between [26:19] the different parties, each one getting [26:21] its proportional share of the 120 [26:25] seats in the Knesset. Then we'll start [26:27] the next period of time. The next period [26:30] is really the discussion of who will be [26:33] invited to to form the the the next [26:35] government. That's the next process of [26:37] the law. The president of the state of [26:39] Israel turns to [26:42] one of the candidates. Now, why do I say [26:45] one of the candidates? Because it's been [26:47] a discussion, should it be the candidate [26:49] who who heads the biggest party? Should [26:52] it be the candidate who has even though [26:54] they may not head the biggest party, [26:56] they have the best chance of forming a [26:58] coalition. Should it be a an outsider [27:01] who doesn't have either of those [27:04] capabilities, but really can bring [27:06] together a wider coalition to support [27:10] the person who would be invited to [27:12] create the next government. That's an [27:14] That's a a process where the president [27:17] of the state of Israel meets with all of [27:19] the heads of of the parties or their [27:21] representatives, hears their [27:23] recommendations, [27:24] and then you move on to the next step. [27:26] Once the president has decided who the [27:29] mandate it should be given to, [27:32] um that person will then try and put [27:35] together a coalition. So, if we're [27:36] talking about the current government and [27:38] the coalition standing at 55 votes, they [27:41] would have to try and persuade one of [27:43] the other parties to join forces with [27:46] them. [27:47] And then the question will be, are there [27:49] those parties within that block who can [27:52] be persuaded, who can be [27:54] uh um coalesced into into really [27:57] joining the what is now the coalition, [28:00] and and and [28:02] and and and being allowing Israel to [28:04] form a government? Or will it remain as [28:07] a [28:08] uh um as as as as a very personal [28:12] tremendously personal issue only? [28:16] Just not [28:18] this gove- this government. And and then [28:20] will be forced into another round of [28:23] probably of elections. And and so, [28:25] that's where we are. But, we're talking [28:26] about a process that's going to take [28:28] anywhere up to two to three months, [28:31] where we might not have [28:34] another another government. [28:36] And so, this government [28:37] >> Who will be a take a caretaker [28:39] >> A caretaker government. [28:39] >> under the prime minister. [28:41] >> Under under the prime minister, this [28:42] government under the same ministers will [28:44] continue to function until a new [28:47] government is sworn in. [28:48] >> And then finally, Maurice, the stakes of [28:50] this election are so consequential [28:54] for Israel, for Israel's Arab neighbors, [28:57] for the West, because the Islamic [29:00] Republic of Iran has targeted Israel for [29:03] destruction as they have for four [29:05] decades. And they have also targeted [29:08] Israel's Arab neighbors. This is an an [29:11] unusual situation that Israel [29:15] finds itself in as in a sense the [29:17] protector of the Middle East [29:19] neighborhood and a quiet cooperation [29:24] and a very robust cooperation, our [29:27] viewers should know, between us and the [29:29] Gulf states and even, don't tell anyone, [29:32] but Saudi Arabia. And and and many other [29:35] countries in the region that see Israel [29:37] as what they call in Arabic al faras al [29:40] aseel, the strong horse. Israel is [29:43] considered the strong horse. America [29:45] also considered the strong horse. That's [29:47] why the stakes are so great because [29:50] President [29:51] the President of the United States which [29:56] is DJT, as they say, [29:59] has [30:00] in his own view in recent days expressed [30:05] a strategic determination in order to [30:10] really weaken the Islamic Republic cuz [30:13] they're rebuilding their ballistic [30:15] capacities, rebuilding their terror [30:16] capabilities, they're enriching uranium, [30:20] they're down, they're severely wounded, [30:22] but they're not out. They're far from [30:24] out. And And this is why the stakes are [30:26] so high. [30:27] >> Dan, one of these things that that have [30:28] gone almost unmentioned, at least in [30:31] with with enough importance [30:33] was the fact that that the Israeli [30:35] government allocated [30:38] the Iron Dome batteries [30:40] to an Arab country to defend itself to [30:43] the to to to the Emirates. That's [30:45] something where you had an Arab country [30:48] inviting Israel and Israeli soldiers [30:51] onto their territory in order to help [30:54] defend them against the Iranian attack. [30:56] That I understand they were not the only [30:59] country to receive Israel's support and [31:02] you can wink wink and guess who the [31:04] others also are [31:07] but but that type of integration was was [31:10] really tremendous and and that's the [31:12] importance of what's going on now. Who [31:14] can carry on that integration? Who can [31:16] carry on that cooperation? That's what [31:18] we need to see. [31:19] >> Absolutely and finally the last piece of [31:22] this [31:23] very complicated jigsaw puzzle is that [31:27] that that Israel's Prime Minister [31:30] has said and the others in even in the [31:33] so-called opposition have said that the [31:36] major challenge now is to fight and beat [31:40] back this unprecedented wave of Jew [31:43] hatred and Jewish state hatred [31:46] primarily in the West and that is going [31:49] to be has become part of the policy of [31:52] prevention [31:54] and assertive diplomacy. [31:56] Excuse me [31:57] in Israel's national security concept. [32:00] >> And that's what we hope for us going [32:01] forward after these elections in the [32:03] next weeks and days that that our [32:05] leaders can find the way to to solve [32:07] that problem not personal [32:09] disqualification but rather looking at [32:12] Israel's really strategic interests and [32:15] threats and and and and ensure that [32:17] Israel has [32:19] the ability to continue existing for for [32:22] thousands of years ahead. [32:23] >> For Israel to survive and thrive and [32:25] that is at the end what we're doing at [32:26] the Jerusalem Center for Security and [32:27] Foreign Affairs championing the [32:29] counteroffensive to secure Israel's [32:33] reputational security Um, now and and [32:37] for generations to come. So, we invite [32:40] our viewers to to adopt one of these [32:42] programs, to support this this effort. [32:45] We are unique in Israel and in the [32:47] Jewish world from Jerusalem in that [32:50] effort, and you're playing a [32:51] huge role [32:53] in that effort and in exposing [32:56] the the Palestinian Authority and and a [32:59] lot of the extremists and and radical [33:02] actions that are being taken. I urge our [33:03] viewers to read Lieutenant Colonel [33:06] Maurice Hirsch's latest book, which is [33:10] which is about the Palestinian [33:12] Authority's 70,000 man army. You can get [33:14] it at jcfa.org for free, and it is being [33:18] used by the Israeli government and the [33:20] lawmakers in the Knesset as a reference [33:23] point in creating policy [33:25] in the following this election and for [33:27] years to come. So, thank you, Maurice, [33:29] very much for all of your your great [33:31] work and your advice, and thank you to [33:33] our viewers for having the patience and [33:37] the wherewithal to to be with us and [33:39] join us and and and follow us at [33:41] jcfa.org. [33:43] Thanks so much. See you everyone again [33:45] very soon here at jcfa.
