Transcript [00:00] So, the map of the Iran war just changed [00:02] again and this war is just all over the [00:04] place. Right now, we have an American [00:06] blockade and some heavy sanctions that [00:07] have been placed against the Islamic [00:09] regime over in Iran that is taking a [00:11] heavy toll against their economy. But [00:13] right now, this thing is just changing [00:15] course time and time again. Over the [00:16] last several days, the Houthis, who is [00:18] the terrorist proxy network of the IRGC [00:21] over in Yemen, have made their largest [00:23] territorial gains that they've had in [00:24] years. Now you guys are going to have to [00:26] forgive me because I am going to butcher [00:28] some of these pronunciations, but it's [00:30] being reported right now that the [00:31] Houthis have taken over the port city of [00:33] Mocha, also pushing down to Dubab and [00:35] also capturing Pum, which is also [00:38] referred to sometimes as Mayun. Now this [00:40] sits right inside of the Babel Mandep [00:42] straight. And now according to the [00:43] Associated Press, they've also taken [00:45] greater and lesser Hanish, which are two [00:47] islands in the southern Red Sea. Now [00:49] this is a big deal uh for Saudi Arabia [00:52] as well as for the Houthies. [01:02] So what the Houthies are trying to do [01:03] right now is choke off Saudi Arabia's [01:05] exports and really close down and [01:07] threaten the only maritime traffic route [01:09] aside of the straightup of Hormuz which [01:10] we know has been effectively shut down [01:12] as Iran and its forces continue to fire [01:15] missiles and threaten the vessels and [01:16] ships in there. Now the Houthies haven't [01:18] just magically closed down the Babel [01:19] Mandeb strait but it is what they are [01:21] trying to do in coordination with Iran. [01:24] Basically this is what Iran is now doing [01:26] to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and to [01:28] also put pressure on the United States. [01:29] This is definitely going to have a big [01:31] effect on you know oil prices and the [01:33] global economy and it already is because [01:35] the Houthis have struck oil [01:37] infrastructure and pipelines over in [01:39] Saudi Arabia and for some reason Saudi [01:41] Arabia is not really doing a lot to [01:43] handle this. So, I do want to take you [01:44] guys through this map because it's a lot [01:46] more simple. If you don't see the map, [01:47] none of this will really make sense. So, [01:49] what you're looking at here is Yemen. [01:50] All of this in blue and red is the [01:52] country of Yemen. However, over there on [01:54] the west to the left over in red, that [01:55] is the Houthi part of uh Yemen. That's [01:58] the part of Yemen that they control. [01:59] Whereas in the blue, that is the part [02:01] that is governed by and run by the [02:03] internationally recognized government of [02:05] Yemen. Now, for some context, I'm not [02:07] going to dive too deep into this, but [02:08] there's been a civil war that has been [02:10] raging in Yemen since 2014. that has [02:12] been very catastrophic. The lack of [02:14] media coverage and attention that was [02:16] put on that war is is actually abysmal. [02:18] It's embarrassing. The worst [02:20] humanitarian crisis on the planet and it [02:21] continues to be horrible for lots of [02:23] people over there. Anyways, so again, [02:25] this right here is Yemen. But if we zoom [02:26] out just a little bit, you'll see that [02:28] Saudi Arabia shares a border with Yemen. [02:30] Saudi Arabia is right there to the north [02:31] of Yemen. And if you look again to the [02:33] east and to the west of Saudi Arabia, [02:35] right here off of the west coast of [02:37] Yemen, right here, you have the Red Sea. [02:38] That is this waterway down here. And [02:41] down here is the Babel Mandab Straight. [02:43] Now, this is what the Houthies are [02:44] attempting to shut off right now. And [02:46] again, if you go up over here and go to [02:48] the east of Saudi Arabia, what you're [02:49] looking at here, this country right here [02:51] is Iran. And uh let's see if I can get [02:53] it. This tiny little waterway right [02:56] here, this is the Straight of Hormuz, [02:58] right? Like if you've been keeping up [02:59] with this war, you will know that a lot [03:00] of strikes have been carried out right [03:02] here on Bandar Abbas. And uh you hear a [03:04] lot of references to Keshum Island. [03:06] That's right here. But this is the Shre [03:08] of Formoose. So what they are attempting [03:10] to do right here you have the Shurmuz [03:11] that has been effectively shut down [03:13] again and then you have the Red Sea over [03:15] here and this important waterway down [03:17] here which is the Bab al-Mandep straight [03:19] which the Houthies have strategic [03:21] control of this part of Yemen for that [03:23] purpose. Uh they're going over here and [03:25] now they've even captured as I said some [03:26] of these islands over here. As you can [03:28] see this is an interactive live map. So [03:30] again as the IRGC has kind of shut down [03:32] the straight of our moves over there to [03:33] the east Saudi Arabia has increasingly [03:35] relied on this east west pipeline. Now, [03:37] this is an extremely important pipeline. [03:38] I mean, this thing carries crude [03:40] basically across the entire country from [03:41] the oil producing areas near the Gulf to [03:43] Yamu, which is a port on the Red Sea. [03:45] Pretty simple, right? That's the bypass. [03:47] Avoid all the problems with the Straa of [03:49] Formuz, move the oil over the land, ship [03:50] it out from the western side of the [03:52] country, and you have to go through the [03:53] Babel Mandep straight. But the problem [03:55] is that if that oil is going to go to [03:56] Saudi Arabia's major customers over in [03:58] Asia, those ships have to travel through [04:00] the Red Sea and pass through Babal [04:02] Mandab. So, again, you have Saudi Arabia [04:04] right here. Now, if we zoom in a little [04:06] bit, they could try to go north and head [04:08] through the Suez over here towards [04:09] Europe, but that's a lot longer of a [04:11] route and really expensive for the Asian [04:13] buyers. So, the whole Saudi backup [04:14] system depends on this pipeline across [04:16] the desert and a sealane running [04:18] directly past Yemen. Right now, both of [04:20] those are under pressure. And like I [04:21] said, just over the past couple of days [04:23] and weeks, the Houthis have made some [04:24] pretty significant territorial gains, [04:26] the biggest that they've had in a long [04:27] time, which really shouldn't be the case [04:29] if you consider the strength and power [04:31] of Saudi Arabia and, you know, the links [04:32] that they would be willing to go to [04:33] protect their oil routes and flows and [04:35] stuff like that. But Reuters is now [04:36] reporting that despite Saudi and Yemeni [04:38] air strikes, the Houthies are still [04:40] remain are remaining in effective [04:42] control of almost the entire western [04:44] coast of Yemen along the Red Sea. As you [04:45] guys see here, again, capturing now some [04:47] islands and this happened really fast. [04:49] Now I think it is important to note that [04:50] the Houthis say that normal navigation [04:53] is going to you know remain the same uh [04:55] that it's going to be safe that their [04:56] only restrictions through you know the [04:57] Babel Mandab are applying to Saudi [04:59] vessels but we've already really seen [05:01] how loose you know their definition of a [05:02] legitimate target can become you know uh [05:05] America was dealing with this all the [05:06] way back uh under the previous [05:08] administration under Biden um after [05:10] October 7th the Houthis kind of got [05:11] involved and were attacking a lot of [05:13] commercial vessels um and you know just [05:16] ships that were not directly linked to [05:17] the United States or Israel. There was a [05:19] time in which they said, you know, we're [05:20] only going to be targeting those linked [05:22] to the Zionist entity and stuff like [05:23] that, but they were hitting a lot of [05:24] commercial vessels that had nothing to [05:26] do with Israel or America. So, just to [05:28] put it plainly, right, a shipping [05:29] company isn't going to gamble their crew [05:31] and a hund00 million vessel uh on, you [05:34] know, the Houthis. They're not going to, [05:36] you know, take that risk whenever the [05:37] Houthies have shown what they've done in [05:39] the past. So, this is the real power [05:40] here for the Houthies. Again, linked [05:42] overall to the IRGC's broader mission. I [05:44] don't know if you would consider it soft [05:45] or hard power. I think it's a little bit [05:47] of a mix of uh both, but you don't [05:49] necessarily have to sink every ship. And [05:50] we've seen this in the Straight of [05:51] Hormuz. You just have to make the risk [05:53] and insurance cost high enough that the [05:54] companies decide to stay away. So, we're [05:57] not even going to risk doing that [05:58] because the wartime insurance companies, [06:00] they're not going to insure us. They're [06:02] not going to promise us that, hey, if we [06:03] get sunk and all of our goods sink to [06:04] the bottom of the sea, that they're [06:06] going to give us our money back. So, [06:07] they just say, okay, well, we're not [06:08] going to take that risk. And who's going [06:10] to pay? Well, the consumers are going to [06:11] pay. That's why your oil prices go up [06:13] and the cost of goods go up. And now we [06:15] have another significant update as I [06:17] referenced at the beginning of this [06:18] video with the pipeline. Uh here's an AP [06:20] article that I'll try to source down in [06:22] the description of the video. They say [06:23] SSI pipeline hit by drones will be out [06:25] of service for weeks, further [06:27] restricting oil flow. Saudi Arabia says [06:29] that these drones came from Iraq and [06:31] they blamed Iranianbacked Iraqi [06:32] militias. No group uh immediately [06:34] claimed responsibility. So, you know, we [06:36] can't pretend that we know the exact [06:37] chain of command, but the damage itself [06:39] is confirmed. The Associated Press here [06:41] says a crucial Saudi oil pipeline that [06:43] was struck in an attack will mostly be [06:45] out of service for weeks as the damage [06:47] is repaired. Two regional officials said [06:49] Monday as Yemen's Houthi rebels seized [06:51] more islands along Red Sea shipping [06:52] routes and a new blow to Saudi Arabia's [06:54] oil exports. As I said, they had been [06:56] relying on this East West pipeline. They [06:57] go on to say the kingdom has relied on [06:59] the East West pipeline which runs more [07:01] than 1,200 kilometers across the breadth [07:03] of the country to move its crude [07:05] production from Gulf ports to the port [07:06] of Yonbu on the Red Sea. From there, it [07:08] can be put on tankers for export. But [07:10] authorities were forced to shut down the [07:12] pipeline after an attack Thursday that [07:14] Saudi Arabia blamed on drones from [07:16] Iranianbacked militias in Iraq. I'll try [07:18] to put up this picture here that the [07:19] Associated Press references, but they [07:21] say repairing the damage, including at a [07:23] major pumping facility, could take 3 to [07:25] 5 weeks. The officials who have been [07:26] briefed on the matter told the [07:27] Associated Press the pipeline may work [07:30] partially during the repairs. One of the [07:31] officials said, but they could not say [07:33] how much oil might get through. The [07:35] officials spoke on condition of [07:37] anonymity because they weren't [07:38] authorized to brief to the media. The [07:40] pipeline has been moving an average of [07:41] 2.6 million to 4 million barrels per day [07:44] since late August, a quantity that will [07:46] be lost to the market if the pipelines [07:47] flow stops completely. According to an [07:49] analysis issued Monday by Ricead Energy, [07:52] a Norway based research firm. They say [07:54] the jump in prices for Brent crude, [07:56] which reached $109, is quote a clear [07:58] signal that the market is increasingly [08:00] pricing in a significant loss of supply. [08:02] The Saudi oil company, Aramco, which [08:04] operates the pipeline, didn't [08:06] immediately respond to a request for [08:07] comment. The government-run center for [08:09] international communication, which [08:10] oversees foreign media in the kingdom, [08:12] said that it was looking into an [08:13] associated press inquiry about how long [08:16] it will take to repair the pipeline. [08:17] They go on here to talk about the [08:18] Houthis, saying Houthi's capture of [08:20] islands strengthens hold on a key outlet [08:22] from the Red Sea, saying meanwhile, [08:23] Yemen's Iranianbacked Houthi rebels [08:25] continue to expand their threat to Saudi [08:26] shipping routes out of the Red Sea by [08:28] capturing the strategic islands of [08:30] greater and lesser Hanish. Government uh [08:32] and Houthi officials said Monday. They [08:33] say the islands lie 160 km, roughly 100 [08:36] miles north of the Babel Mandep Strait. [08:39] The straight is a choke point that [08:40] connects the Red Sea to an open ocean [08:42] and Saudi Arabia's key Asian markets. [08:43] The Houthi's advance also puts them just [08:45] 20 m which is 32 km from the United [08:48] States military base in the tiny horn of [08:50] African nation of Djibouti on the other [08:52] side of the Babep Strait. They say for [08:54] more than a month the Houthis have been [08:55] striking Saudi oil infrastructure and [08:57] shipping in the Red Sea, stepping up [08:58] pressure on global oil prices and [09:00] boosting Iran's leverage in its war with [09:02] the United States. The Houthi advances [09:04] have seemed to come with little [09:05] resistance from Saudi backed Yemeni [09:07] government forces. The rebels deployed [09:08] on the Hanish islands after hundreds of [09:10] government allied forces withdrew from [09:12] the archipelago. According to two [09:13] government officials and a Houthy [09:15] official, the official spoke on [09:17] condition of anonymity because they were [09:18] not authorized to talk to journalists. [09:20] As I said, they go on to say, "Last [09:22] week, the rebels seized port city of [09:23] Mocha in the island of Mayun inside of [09:25] the Baba Mandep Strait. Government [09:27] forces are now attempting to rally and [09:29] fight back." This shouldn't have ever [09:31] even happened, by the way. But they say [09:33] on Sunday, the military said it launched [09:34] air strikes on Houthi positions in [09:36] Mocha, the coastal town of Dub, and [09:38] elsewhere in the Thai province. As I [09:40] showed you guys on that interactive map, [09:42] there are strikes being carried out and [09:43] a lot of them. Now again, you have the [09:45] three H's, Hamas, Hzbollah, and the [09:46] Houthies who make up Iran's axis of [09:49] resistance. So I think the question that [09:50] a lot of people are having right now is [09:52] how involved actually is tyran? How [09:54] involved is the is the Islamic regime in [09:56] directing all of this. Reuters says that [09:58] the Houthi offensive received direct [09:59] guidance from Iran's IRGC and the report [10:02] continually as it has done for a long [10:04] time cites Iranian, Yemen, and regional [10:06] sources who say that Iran pushed the [10:08] Houthis to escalate. Of course, they did [10:10] and they promised more funding and [10:11] weapons and they actually sent senior [10:13] officials to help. So, Iran is actively [10:15] involved in this. But what you have to [10:17] understand is that Iran does deny that [10:19] they control the Houthis. Now, the [10:21] Houthis are not literally part of the [10:23] IRGC. They are their own armed movement [10:25] with their own interests. They're [10:26] probably the most autonomous out of all [10:29] of them, out of all of the the three H [10:30] groups, the Axis of Resistance. You [10:32] know, they have their own leadership. [10:33] They have a long history inside of [10:34] Yemen. They aren't really always in [10:37] accordance with the interest of the IRGC [10:39] or acting for the IRGC as Hzbollah and [10:41] Hamas are. But to pretend that they're [10:43] just some completely independent local [10:44] militia that isn't tied to the IRGC is [10:47] just ridiculous. I mean they are clearly [10:48] doing this in order to help the IRGC and [10:50] give them more leverage over the [10:51] shipping routes. The weapons, the [10:53] training, the funding, all of the you [10:54] know overall strategic relationship with [10:56] Iran are a very real thing. So the [10:58] distinction here is that Iranian support [11:00] can shape and strengthen you know Houthi [11:02] operations without Iran necessarily [11:04] ordering every single launch which I I [11:06] think is important to understand. Now [11:07] all of this brings us to the United [11:09] States because there are now American [11:10] military personnel inside of Saudi [11:12] Arabia who are helping with the [11:14] response. According to CNN, they're [11:15] reporting more than 100 advisers are on [11:17] the ground, while one US official put [11:18] the total number involved at around 200. [11:21] Now, these Americans are reportedly [11:22] working through a new joint command and [11:24] providing intelligence as well as [11:25] geospatial targeting support uh and [11:27] access to a real-time battlefield tool [11:29] that Saudi Arabia can use with their [11:31] fight against the Houthis. Now, Saudi [11:33] Arabia has actually asked for direct US [11:35] involvement like boots on the ground, [11:36] send your soldiers and troops over here [11:38] to help fight. Uh but apparently, [11:39] according to the reporting, Trump turned [11:40] that down. The reporting right now is [11:42] saying that America is not conducting [11:44] any of these strikes. They're not [11:45] refueling any Saudi aircraft. They're [11:47] not providing, you know, the broader [11:48] operational support that they used uh [11:50] during the earlier phases of the Yemen [11:52] war. Like I said, Saudi Crown Prince [11:53] Muhammad bin Solomon reportedly called [11:55] President Trump at least twice and asked [11:57] for direct military help uh to fight [11:59] against the Houthis. Trump didn't agree [12:01] to American strikes. Uh and then just [12:03] recently, NBS met with Sentcom Commander [12:05] Admiral Brad Cooper in Jedha as this [12:08] situation continued getting worse. So [12:10] Saudi Arabia is asking for American [12:11] involvement. Will that happen? We don't [12:13] know. Now, frankly, I think the [12:15] distinction that Trump is drawing here [12:16] is a pretty important one. I mean, [12:18] helping an ally track threats and defend [12:20] itself isn't the same thing as [12:21] immediately opening another direct [12:22] American bombing campaign. And Saudi [12:24] Arabia has spent an unbelievable amount [12:26] of money building its military. It [12:27] should not be able to assume that the [12:29] United States will do every hard part of [12:31] this fight for them. This is just [12:32] unrealistic. But also, let's I don't [12:34] think we should be naive. Once American [12:36] advisers are inside of a joint command [12:38] helping to identify targets in a [12:39] conflict where the Houthis are already [12:41] firing missiles and drones into Saudi [12:43] territory. You know the distance between [12:44] support and direct involvement can [12:46] shrink pretty pretty quickly. So how [12:48] this will update, we don't know. Of [12:49] course I'll continue to keep you guys [12:51] updated on that. But if Americans are [12:52] killed in this, if a US base is hit or [12:54] if the Houthis begin attacking, you [12:56] know, a much wider range of shipping, [12:57] the pressure on Trump to respond will be [12:59] enormous. And I think that's the the [13:01] risk that he's weighing by saying, "No, [13:03] we're not actually going to get [13:04] involved. We'll send over people to help [13:06] you." But in terms of carrying out [13:07] direct strikes or being involved in the [13:09] actual military strikes or bombing [13:10] campaigns, we're we're not there yet. [13:12] Now, while all of this is happening, you [13:13] have planned talks uh in Oman over [13:15] reopening the straight of Hormuz that [13:17] have been postponed. You also have Iran [13:19] saying Saudi Arabia has requested this [13:21] delay and they're also signaling that it [13:23] wants Yemen included in any broader [13:25] settlement. So if there is going to be, [13:26] you know, any type of settlement, any [13:28] type of agreement to end this conflict, [13:31] it's now going to involve many more [13:32] parties. You're now looking at Yemen, [13:34] Saudi Arabia, the Houthis. And what does [13:36] this do? It gives Iran leverage as long [13:38] as the Houthies continue to pose that [13:40] threat and have an effect on global [13:41] shipping, which if Saudi Arabia does its [13:43] job, then that won't really be the case. [13:45] But we'll have to see how this all plays [13:46] out. So overall, just a very rapidly [13:48] developing situation all across the [13:50] Middle East. This thing is all over the [13:52] place. But Iran right now is really [13:53] doing everything they can. You know, it [13:55] was a tit fortat, you know, back and [13:56] forth strike. You had the little tanker [13:58] strike and the threat of that over in [13:59] the straight of Hormuz with America [14:01] sinking some Iranian oil tankers. Now [14:03] you have Iran using its proxies that [14:05] very obviously have that important [14:06] strategical leverage to shut down as [14:08] they've already done the straight of [14:09] Hormuz, but now the Baba Mendep [14:11] straight. So this is what Iran's plan [14:13] is. And of course, if there are any more [14:15] updates to this war that are big, then [14:17] I'll try to keep you guys in the loop [14:18] and keep you updated. But I'll leave it [14:20] at that. So, if you guys are new here [14:22] and you enjoyed the video, please [14:23] consider subscribing to the channel and [14:25] hitting the like button. If you are a [14:26] normal watcher, I appreciate you guys so [14:28] much for being here. Please like the [14:30] video. Let me know your thoughts down in [14:31] the comments section below. I really do [14:33] appreciate you all for watching. And as [14:34] always, take care of yourselves, stay [14:36] safe, and I'll see you in the next one.
