Transcript [00:02] Welcome to Waiting for 61, JTA's Israel [00:05] Election Podcast, where we break down [00:07] the fundamentals of Israel's 2026 [00:09] elections, the politics, the players, [00:11] and what's at stake as each side [00:13] scrambles to put together a government. [00:15] I'm Ammy [music] Eden, CEO and executive [00:17] editor of 70 Faces Media, the [00:19] organization behind the Jewish [music] [00:21] Telegraphic Agency. [00:22] >> And I'm Ruth Eglash, JTA's senior Israel [00:25] correspondent. [music] Today marks eight [00:27] days since the election and there's [00:30] still absolutely [music] no sign of 61. [00:32] But Ammy, I know there are some very [00:34] clear results where you are. So maybe we [00:37] should discuss the impact of those on [00:39] our results here today. Sounds good. But [00:42] before we dive [music] in, just want to [00:44] remind everybody to send your questions [00:46] to waiting for61 atjta.org. And if [00:49] you're enjoying Waiting for 61, please [00:51] subscribe and give us a fivestar rating [00:53] wherever [music] you listen to your [00:54] podcasts. Okay, let's get into it. [00:57] >> Okay, so Ammy, I saw already this [00:59] morning you banged out uh six Jewish [01:02] takeaways from the midterm elections, [01:04] which is up on the JTA website. And I'm [01:07] very curious to hear from you how [01:09] significantly the Republican losses are [01:12] going to weaken Donald Trump, especially [01:14] and especially have influence over his [01:16] policies or US policy towards Israel. I [01:20] think when we're talking about Donald [01:22] Trump, everything, you know, is [01:25] unpredictable and hard to pin down. Just [01:27] I'm used to you saying that, Ruth, [01:29] right? Like I ask you a question about [01:30] Israel and you're like, well, in Israel, [01:32] everything's unpredictable. So, I think [01:34] we have to be, you know, say everything [01:36] with a lot of humility about what's [01:38] going to happen. But I'll say first the [01:40] general point the area where presidents [01:44] you know can take refuge even when you [01:47] know they're under assault domestically [01:49] and on their back heels is foreign [01:52] policy right like the way our system [01:53] works foreign policy is an area where [01:57] presidents have a lot of latitude so I [02:00] would start by saying you know th this [02:03] is going to be an area where in theory [02:05] Donald Trump could still push an agenda [02:08] uh that he would want especially if he [02:11] were a normal president but he's not a [02:14] normal president. So for example we are [02:17] in the middle of whatever you want to [02:20] call what the situation in Iran is right [02:22] now you call it a war uh a pause the war [02:25] etc. He went into that with no real [02:30] congressional consultation or approval. [02:34] So, I think on the Iran front, you have [02:37] to assume that he's going to become he's [02:39] going to be under a lot of pressure, [02:42] you know, to to wind it down. And [02:45] whether or not he resists that pressure, [02:47] I I don't know. And, you know, it may be [02:50] the kind of situation where he sort of [02:51] doesn't want to go back and, you know, [02:54] he might hold me back, hold me back. You [02:56] know, like that might be what we're [02:58] looking at. So I would say the first [03:00] thing that matters I think to Israel is [03:02] that I would be looking at is what [03:04] happens with Iran. And you know he's [03:06] he's been sending signals in both [03:08] directions like oh we're going to do [03:10] something after the midterm but you know [03:11] JD Bance is coming out and saying we [03:13] really think there can be a deal and and [03:16] trying to get a deal. So that would be [03:17] the first thing I think on you mentioned [03:20] Israel aid like he basically has said [03:24] we're going to we're going to stop doing [03:26] aid and made no bones about it as to the [03:30] reason why which is why should we take [03:32] the political hits um from all these [03:35] people who don't want us giving aid to [03:36] Israel when Israel doesn't really need [03:39] the aid and basically saying and BB [03:41] agrees with me so yeah I don't it seems [03:44] like there with a sizable Democratic [03:48] majority coming into Congress and [03:51] President Trump saying time to end the [03:53] aid and presumably BB, you know, BB [03:57] being in a corner and basically having [03:59] to say yes, I I agree with you, Donald. [04:01] like I I think that is an area where [04:04] we're, you know, very well could see [04:07] that happen quickly. Although I don't [04:09] think we have a full grasp of what the [04:11] legislative nicities of that are going [04:14] to be and how long it can really take. I [04:16] think the area though where there's a [04:18] lot of flexibility still is on [04:21] diplomacy. I is Trump going to lean into [04:24] the Abraham Accords. Is he going to try [04:27] to do something else big or meaningful [04:30] and put pressure on BB or put pressure [04:33] on Eisenkot or put pressure on regional [04:36] Arab allies? Will that have any effect [04:39] whatsoever? I don't know. I'll be [04:41] interested to hear from you. What does [04:43] Donald Trump's sudden lame duck status [04:46] do to Israeli thinking? But I think we, [04:48] you know, we've seen presidents before [04:50] who have um lost domestic standing turn [04:54] and try to revive their relevance by [04:58] scoring diplomatic points abroad. So, [05:01] you know, we'll we'll see what that [05:02] looks like. [05:03] >> Now, you know, we're still as as I said [05:04] in the opening, we're still going [05:06] through the process here. The president [05:08] of Israel started meeting this afternoon [05:10] with um with the political parties. But [05:13] where does this, you know, Trump's [05:14] status leave Netanyahu? because he's [05:18] lost out here. It seems very certain [05:21] that the president's going to give [05:23] Eisenhot the mandate to try and form a [05:25] coalition. And Trump was the one who [05:28] endorsed Netanyahu. There were a few [05:29] people who put these I think even Yakov [05:31] mentioned it on the episode that you [05:33] have that he came on where he talks [05:35] about oh maybe Trump's going to invite [05:36] Eisen and Netanyahu to Mara Lago and [05:39] they're going to pay golf and he's going [05:40] to tell them to form a co coalition [05:42] government uh unity government. Um, but [05:45] where where does this leave Netanyahu? I [05:46] mean, everything that he has stood for [05:48] over the last few years. All his wins [05:51] have come from Donald Trump, from the [05:53] fact that Donald Trump is is supporting [05:55] him and backing him or agreeing with [05:57] him. I mean, everything he talks about [05:59] is because of Trump and now we've got [06:02] this uncomfortable situation where we [06:05] could see some, you know, some not good [06:08] moves against Israel. We've talked about [06:11] before the contrast between Netanyahu [06:13] and Eizenot in terms of Netanyahu having [06:16] like impeccable English [06:18] and Eisenhot, you know, really not [06:21] speaking English. But I'd be more [06:24] specific like in recent years what [06:27] Netanyahu is really fluent at is Donald [06:29] Trump and Fox News, right? And the [06:31] question is, forget about English. Can [06:33] anybody in the Israeli government, [06:35] whether that's going to be a Netanyahu [06:37] government or a Eisenhot government, can [06:41] anybody speak American? Okay. Can they [06:44] speak Democrat? Can they speak Democrat [06:47] and independent? I mean, the it's, you [06:49] know, the scope [06:51] of the Democratic victory both in terms [06:54] of its size and just all the places all [06:57] the red states that they won, you know, [06:59] is really just shocking. And I don't [07:02] think that the Israeli [07:05] political class or leadership is really, [07:08] you know, can they comprehend how much [07:11] attitudes are changing? And in some [07:13] cases, that's an anti-Israel attitude, [07:15] right, among certain lawmakers who are [07:17] now getting into office. But I also [07:19] think it's about just a wide range of [07:21] lawmakers who don't care, right? That [07:23] Israel is just not a priority. Like when [07:26] you look at a lot of these red states [07:28] where Democrats are picking up Senate [07:29] and House seats, [07:31] I doubt very strongly that other than [07:35] being upset about gas prices that they [07:36] linked to the Iran war, I don't think, [07:38] you know, I don't think this is about [07:40] negative feelings over Israeli military [07:43] actions in Gaza or what's happening in [07:47] the West Bank. Like I don't think that's [07:48] what's motivating those voters. So [07:50] whether it's because people have become [07:53] anti-Israel or people are going to have [07:54] just much more interest or patience on [07:56] Israel issues feel like the Israeli [07:58] leadership is going to have to you know [08:01] get their hands around it. And I was [08:03] reading your story today about Israeli [08:06] reactions to the election. And you know, [08:08] I saw you had the opening with um former [08:10] ambassador to the United States, Michael [08:12] Orin. And to me, it's very much [08:14] reflecting this idea like we're all [08:17] toast, all is lost because there's no [08:19] middle ground. Like the assumption is [08:22] the only formula left for Israel is the [08:25] BB [08:27] Trump formula. And now that that's [08:29] broken, [08:31] all hell's gonna break loose and the end [08:33] is nine. And like, [08:35] >> well, you know, I mean, I you mentioned [08:36] Michael Orin. I spoke to him this [08:38] morning and he really like painted this [08:39] doomsday scenario for me. Like, oh my [08:42] god. Like, I had this vision of like as [08:44] soon as the Senate reopens that they're [08:47] going to all be there like yelling about [08:48] Israel and that's all they're going to [08:50] be talking about. How can we like cut [08:52] off our ties? And, you know, I mean, [08:53] I've been at this at this kind of work [08:55] for a long time. I covered uh uh when uh [08:58] Netanyahu and Obama were like at [09:01] loggerheads with each other back in uh [09:03] 2015 and you know people always assured [09:06] me you know what the Israel US [09:08] relationship is a is is a historic one [09:11] it's a sturdy one you know Israel and [09:13] the US are are you know on the same page [09:16] and doesn't matter who is in power and [09:19] you know even though I remember going [09:20] with Netanyahu as a journalist covering [09:22] his trip to uh to meet with Obama and [09:25] they were both sitting sitting in the [09:27] White House like looking very angry like [09:29] they you could tell Natany who didn't [09:30] really want to be there and neither did [09:32] Obama. Um and everyone assured me at [09:35] that point I was working for the [09:36] Washington Post and everyone assured me [09:38] no like just because the leaders don't [09:40] get along doesn't mean that the you know [09:43] this this fundamental connection between [09:45] Israel and the United States um is going [09:48] to change. But I heard the um you know [09:52] the tone changing this morning when I [09:54] spoke to professor Jonathan Reinhold [09:55] from uh Barilan University and you know [09:58] all through the years he's assured me no [10:00] no the relationships are staying. We [10:02] still have, you know, the diplomats [10:04] talking to each other and the military [10:05] talking to each other and the [10:07] intelligence uh uh you know, uh the [10:10] intelligence departments talking to each [10:11] other and it's just the leaders. And I'm [10:14] not sure about that now. And he wasn't [10:16] sure about that this morning. And he [10:17] said this is really a big change. It's [10:20] reflecting a change that's happened [10:22] inside uh American society. And this is [10:26] this is going to also just pave the way [10:29] for others to come along, others like uh [10:32] who will use the Israel issue to to get [10:36] into Congress or to to climb up the [10:39] ladder. And you know, it's just uh it's [10:42] really showing this huge gap between [10:44] Israel and the US. Definitely. Well, I [10:46] think you just hit on something that's a [10:48] real important point, which is on the [10:50] one hand, the scope of the victory and [10:53] all these wins in Texas and Iowa and [10:56] South Carolina, [10:58] you know, I don't know what neck and [11:00] neck like literally in Mississippi. Um, [11:04] means that there were a lot of things [11:06] that were going on in this election that [11:07] really were not about Israel. The flip [11:10] side is that clearly [11:13] there is a there is a very widely [11:16] available path, you know, that will play [11:18] in many places of getting to Congress by [11:22] being anti-Israel, right? So, it's not [11:24] that the whole that all the Democrats [11:27] who won are anti-Israel or that even [11:30] necessarily that the party right now [11:32] will be hardline anti-Israel, but there [11:37] are more and more anti-Israel members. [11:38] And it's clear that that's a reliable [11:40] path in many districts and states to get [11:43] elected and there's not necessarily a [11:45] price to pay. And on the flip side, we [11:47] mentioned Trump like think about this. [11:50] Trump, who is Israel's argu, you know, [11:53] we'll take the prime minister's word for [11:54] it, the best friend Israel's ever had in [11:56] the White House. On election day, he [12:00] thought the best thing to help his party [12:04] gain votes, even if only on the margins, [12:06] was to talk up the end of sending aid to [12:09] Israel. [12:10] >> No, no, you're right. And you know, just [12:12] going back to your question that you [12:13] asked me earlier, like there is things [12:15] that Israel can do. You know, first of [12:17] all, we saw um there are people in the [12:20] change block, the people in the [12:21] opposition who could be the ones in [12:24] government uh in the near future. Ya [12:26] Laid, who was the prime minister, he [12:29] talks about how there's no way Israel [12:30] can have Netanyahu serving as prime [12:32] minister anymore now that there's a [12:34] democratic uh you know majority in the [12:37] in Congress. Also, Yer Golan also talked [12:40] about that and the analyst that I spoke [12:42] to this morning said, you know, it's [12:44] going to be whoever comes in now is [12:46] going to have to mention the P word, [12:48] which hasn't been used, peace, which has [12:51] not been used in Israel for a very long [12:53] time. and they're going to have to start [12:56] showing some efforts towards finding a [12:58] solution which has been kind of put on [13:01] hold at least in the last four years but [13:03] even before that um you know Natanya [13:06] hasn't wanted to touch that issue really [13:08] at all um but that is going to have to [13:10] come up and that and Israel is going to [13:12] have to start taking some steps and and [13:15] I know ya appeared actually he I think [13:17] he was in the US over the summer and he [13:19] met with the with democratic uh leaders [13:22] and he him and Napali Bennett are both [13:25] very acutely aware of building of of [13:28] trying to take steps to return to the [13:30] bipartisan uh status that Israel once [13:33] held. Whether they can do that today, I [13:36] don't know. Anybody's guess? [13:39] >> You mentioned the P word. I'll replace [13:40] it with the V word, which is vision. [13:43] What feels like to me has been missing [13:45] during a lot of the BB era has been a [13:48] clear vision of where do you want to go? [13:50] How do you really see this playing out [13:53] and how do you get there? Whatever it [13:55] is, right? Like I think there have been [13:56] times when you've had American [13:57] leadership who like would just say like [14:00] can we please get a vision and like [14:02] believe you when you say it, right? And [14:04] I think BB's style which served him well [14:07] for many many years is to keep his cards [14:10] close to the vest, not to make clear [14:12] commitments, always to be negotiating. [14:15] And I think that's where the Israeli [14:18] approach may have to get adjusted if [14:20] they want to make any headway, which is [14:22] at least like, okay, here are all the [14:24] things you can't do, but what will you [14:26] do? What is your plan? What is your [14:28] vision? Even if it's something Democrats [14:30] don't like, right? But like, put it out [14:33] there. act as if you have a plan that [14:37] is going to at least address some issues [14:40] of concern that you know that Democrats [14:43] have that the West has. [14:45] >> No, but I I think that's very much it [14:46] was a Netanyahu I mean you you just said [14:48] it yourself. It was a very much a [14:50] Natanyahu approach. I mean we've seen it [14:52] with many things. I mean that's one of [14:54] the reasons why Gaza kind of imploded [14:57] and uh October 7th sort of happened. I [15:00] mean, I don't want to lay that, you [15:02] know, out there, but it's but it wasn't [15:04] dealt with a problem that wasn't dealt [15:06] with. So, it was just left and left and [15:08] left and left and left until October 7th [15:10] happened. And it was the same with the [15:12] ultraorththodox draft. And it's one of [15:14] the reasons why the United Torah Judaism [15:17] Party is really angry with Netanyahu and [15:19] has not committed to being in his block [15:22] anymore because he hasn't dealt with the [15:25] draft law and hasn't found a solution. [15:29] Either way, it's the same with the [15:31] two-state solution or whatever the [15:33] solution is. Maybe the two-state [15:34] solution doesn't work anymore. I mean, [15:36] we talked about we've talked about the [15:38] West Bank and the realities that have [15:40] changed on the ground there. Maybe it's [15:42] needs to be a different solution, but no [15:44] one has talked about it. But I do know [15:46] that within the change block, um I don't [15:48] know about Gaddy Eisenko, but I know [15:50] that Leid and Bennett have have a whole [15:52] platform and they do have a plan. [15:54] Bennett, I've spoken to you before about [15:56] his ideas. Um, and I know that Yay [15:59] Golan, he he's very clear about there [16:01] needs to be a Palestinian state. So, [16:04] there are people in the Israeli [16:07] political establishment that have [16:09] visions for a future. It just it's been [16:12] so dominated by one personality for the [16:14] last uh 20 years that it hasn't uh [16:18] really come up. [16:19] >> Yeah. And just before we close, I want [16:20] to make clear, I don't think this thing [16:23] we're talking about is a leftwing versus [16:25] right-wing thing because there are [16:26] people to Netanyahu's right who would [16:29] agree. They they would say, "Yeah, we [16:31] need to be clear what our vision is." It [16:33] it would be a radically different vision [16:34] than the leftwing vision, but it would [16:36] be like, "We're going to annex these [16:37] territories. We're going to make them [16:39] part of Israel." So, I don't I just want [16:40] to be clear to our listeners. I don't [16:41] think the thing we're talking about here [16:43] is left versus right. It's just put a [16:45] stake in the ground. And that's been, [16:47] you know, BB has always [16:50] benefited until the last few years with [16:52] like the optionality and now I think I [16:54] think that's what's going to really sh [16:55] change. [16:56] >> Yeah. I think I mean I think to me as [16:58] someone who's been covering him for for [17:00] many years that he just doesn't like [17:02] making decisions. I mean the last three [17:04] years he had no choice. He had to make [17:06] take hard decisions but he hasn't wanted [17:09] to make decisions especially about the [17:12] Palestinian. But you're right there's [17:14] people who are right for him. I think [17:15] Avdor Lieberman has a pretty clear view [17:18] of what he thinks should be done with [17:20] Palestinians and obviously Bet Salasmic [17:23] and Bengal Beng they have very clear [17:25] visions as well um and it's you know [17:28] Netanyahu kind of burs on the side of [17:30] like let's just leave the status quo um [17:34] and let it keep on going until obviously [17:37] if you don't have a solution then things [17:40] end up going haywire which is kind of [17:43] where we are today in Israel [17:46] Right. [17:46] >> Okay, that's it for today. Thank you to [17:48] our producer, Maya Rackoff. Please make [17:51] sure to join us tomorrow for the next [17:52] episode of Waiting for61. And we are [17:55] going to be taking um listener [17:58] questions. So, please be sure to send [18:00] your questions in to waiting for61 [18:02] atjta.org. And if you're enjoying [18:04] Waiting for 61, please subscribe and [18:06] give us a five-star rating wherever you [18:08] listen to [music] your podcasts.
