Transcript [00:00] Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia needs help [00:02] defending itself from the Houthis, but [00:04] that apparently is not enough to move [00:06] Riyad closer to the state of Israel. [00:08] Regional officials say the Saudis are [00:10] running low on missile interceptors and [00:12] have reached out to countries including [00:14] France, Britain, Pakistan, and Egypt for [00:17] air defense support. But according to a [00:19] Saudi source cited by Israel's Khan [00:22] News, even Israeli assistance would not [00:24] change Riad's position on normalization. [00:27] Saudi Arabia continues to demand an [00:30] irreversible path toward Palestinian [00:32] statethood, which is something that [00:33] Prime Minister Nathano's government [00:35] opposes. So, what does this tell us [00:37] about the limits of security cooperation [00:39] between Israel and Saudi Arabia, even as [00:41] the Houthi threat grows? Well, joining [00:44] us now in the studio is our senior [00:46] Middle East correspondent Ariel Osiran [00:48] and international analyst Dan Perry. All [00:52] right, there's a lot to discuss here. [00:54] Obviously, if Saudi Arabia is facing [00:57] this level of threat from Iranbacked [00:59] forces, what does this reported refusal [01:02] to accept normalization with the state [01:04] of Israel in exchange for security [01:06] assistance tell us about the priorities [01:08] of Saudi Arabia at this moment? [01:10] >> So, I think we need to look at both of [01:11] these processes as separate pathways. [01:14] Israel and Saudi Arabia are deepening [01:17] their military cooperation. We know that [01:21] uh IDF chief of staff alamir met with [01:24] Gulf with the heads of Gulf countries uh [01:27] military apparatuses and this is [01:30] something that is continuing regardless [01:32] of the issue of normalization. As far as [01:35] Saudi Arabia is concerned, you know, [01:38] Saudis I'm speaking with are saying that [01:39] the price for normalization with Israel [01:43] is the same today as it was on October [01:46] 6th, 2023. That is a credible pathway [01:49] towards Palestinian statethood. That is [01:51] the statement. [01:52] >> Does that mean Israel won't be willing [01:53] to help? [01:55] >> No, because the I even Israel views both [01:59] of these uh pathways as separate. [02:01] However, you said in your introduction [02:03] that uh Israeli government opposes this [02:06] uh [02:07] >> you know this price on the part of Saudi [02:09] Arabia. That is partially true. At least [02:11] that is correct based on public [02:14] statements. But if you look at President [02:16] Trump's 20point plan for the Gaza Strip, [02:18] which Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to [02:21] and the government of Israel agreed to, [02:24] there is a clause that specifically [02:26] states that this uh plan is going to [02:30] bring forward a viable pathway towards [02:33] Palestinian statethood. Those words were [02:36] chosen specifically to appease the [02:38] Saudis. However, so what needs to happen [02:42] >> based on that? you know, on the Gaza [02:44] road map. It's enough for the [02:47] introduction of the committee of [02:49] technocrats and a few steps in Gaza that [02:52] could put the Saudis in a position where [02:54] they're saying, "Okay, this is enough [02:55] because Israel agreed to this credible [02:58] pathway, which is a fact. There are a [03:00] few steps on the ground and then it [03:02] would be up to Saudi Arabia." So, [03:03] theoretically, we don't we aren't [03:05] necessarily too far away from there. But [03:08] again, there's a lot more uh in terms of [03:11] optics that are hindering Saudi Arabia [03:14] to come to that realization. [03:15] >> Right. Dan, I want to turn to you. Um [03:18] obviously, I think the question that [03:20] many have is whether or not these Houthi [03:22] attacks are ultimately going to create [03:23] more security cooperation between Israel [03:26] and Saudi Arabia, irregardless of [03:28] whether or not Saudi Arabia is willing [03:30] to establish uh you know, diplomatic [03:32] relations with the state of Israel [03:34] without that pathway to Palestinian [03:35] statehood. doesn't seem like that's [03:37] going to change, but is it within [03:38] Israel's interest ultimately to get [03:40] involved and to help Saudi Arabia? And [03:43] do you think we're looking at a scenario [03:44] in which the entire game could change [03:47] here? [03:48] >> Absolutely. Uh Israel is a little bit [03:51] the supplicant in this equation because [03:52] Israel wants acceptance by the region [03:54] and for Israel the game changes if Saudi [03:56] Arabia joins the Abraham Accords. [03:58] Unsurprisingly, the Saudis are setting a [04:00] very high bar for that. The bar is [04:02] actually lowering. It used to be the [04:04] establishment of a Palestinian state. [04:06] Now it's a credible pathway towards uh [04:08] they also don't define what a [04:09] Palestinian state means. And when [04:11] Israelis oppose a Palestinian state, [04:13] they're basically thinking in the entire [04:14] West Bank in Gaza [04:16] >> uh and a regular state with an army and [04:18] an air force. And if you look at the [04:19] map, that's preposterous. It cannot be. [04:21] But imagine a state that's defined a [04:23] little bit different like Luxembourg [04:25] without any military. I mean, you might [04:27] think the Palestinians will never accept [04:28] it, but for Israel to accept that idea [04:30] and wait for the Palestinians to reject [04:32] it is a different matter. So, I can [04:35] certainly see all kinds of wiggle room [04:37] for an Israeli government that really is [04:39] determined to make it possible for the [04:41] Saudis to normalize to actually go ahead [04:43] and do that. Meanwhile, even before such [04:45] a government, uh, Israel's absolutely [04:48] uh, interested in making itself be [04:50] indispensable to these countries in a [04:52] region, making it clear to all the [04:53] countries of the GCC why they want to be [04:56] allied with Israel. I think the question [04:58] of course is what impact that's going to [04:59] have on the United States's relationship [05:02] with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states [05:03] because we all already know that there's [05:05] kind of growing anger amongst the GCC [05:08] when it comes to uh the United States [05:10] and its posture in this war with Iran [05:12] given uh you know how it's impacting the [05:15] economies the infrastructure of these [05:18] countries. Saudi Arabia, we understand, [05:21] reached out to Trump asking for military [05:24] help and basically got a response [05:26] saying, "We'll give you intelligence [05:27] support, but that's it for now." We know [05:29] the US doesn't want to open a second [05:31] front. So, is there a world in which [05:33] Israel could somehow be a replacement? [05:36] It is very possible that that is the [05:38] viewpoint from the White House that the [05:41] reason why they're not taking this more [05:42] hands-on approach in supporting the [05:45] Saudis is to leave some sort of vacuum [05:48] into which Israel will place itself and [05:51] then it can also increase its [05:54] cooperation with Saudi Arabia and with [05:56] other Gulf countries. That is one thing. [05:58] However, I will note that in the [06:00] reported meeting last week between the [06:04] military chiefs of Israel, five Gulf [06:06] countries, and Egypt, Jordan, and the [06:10] United States. Again, I said five Gulf [06:13] countries, there's six countries in the [06:14] GCC. Oman wasn't there. And I think that [06:17] is very interesting because this shows [06:19] that either there's two options. Either [06:21] they were invited and snubbed the [06:23] meeting or they didn't receive an [06:24] invitation. Both options do not bode [06:27] well for the unity of the GCC and this [06:30] is also a byproduct of Iran's aggression [06:33] against its callab neighbors that it is [06:36] causing some you know wedges within the [06:40] GCC. [06:40] >> It also reflects the sad fact that Oman [06:42] is playing along with Iran and its [06:44] efforts to reestablish some sort of [06:46] presence in a straight over and so [06:48] they're a little bit isolated. No less [06:50] relevant is that Qatar was at this [06:52] meeting. I I see a world in which yeah, [06:55] the US maybe isn't involved because [06:57] until the midterms Trump can't do that. [07:00] Uh but Israel gives intelligence and [07:03] Israel perhaps provides air cover and [07:05] that they've already done against the [07:06] Houthis of plenty. So it's not such a [07:08] game changer. Meanwhile, if you need [07:10] boots on the ground for a Pinsir [07:11] movement against the Houthis from the [07:13] north uh and the Saudibacked uh [07:16] government forces from the south, Egypt [07:18] is not irrelevant. And of course, Cece [07:20] met with NBS a couple days ago. There's [07:23] a lot of scenarios here that can arise.
