Transcript [00:00] Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a panic. [00:02] He's put tremendous pressure on trying [00:05] to get two particular parties out of the [00:08] race. All sorts of dirty tricks, some of [00:10] which I'm aware of. [00:13] >> [music] [00:19] >> Hello and good evening from Israel. [00:21] Welcome to another Israel Insider with [00:23] me, Ashley Perry, [00:25] advisor to the Middle East Forum [00:26] Israel's office, as usual. [00:29] I will speak for about 15 [00:32] minutes. Actually, I'm I might talk a [00:34] little bit less, we'll see, because, you [00:37] know, we are 6 [00:40] days away from elections, so I'm sure [00:42] there'll be lots of questions about [00:43] what's going on. Not that I have [00:45] complete clarity. So, as I said, there [00:47] are there's less than a week before [00:49] elections. Interestingly, the elections [00:51] have actually started. Diplomats around [00:54] the [00:55] the world voted a few days ago, and [00:57] soldiers on bases [01:00] already started to vote as well. [01:01] Soldiers are significant vote. I I did [01:04] see some statistic today on how much how [01:08] many soldiers there are. [01:10] I can't remember it exactly, but they [01:11] are a significant part of [01:15] voting day. They're what's called double [01:17] envelopes, cuz basically you usually [01:19] have to vote in your home by your home [01:21] address, where they tell you to vote, [01:23] which is usually, you know, the closest [01:26] polling station. [01:28] But, [01:29] you know, a lot of soldiers obviously [01:30] can't get back to their homes, so [01:33] they're allowed to vote on their base. [01:34] So, they put it in sort of two envelopes [01:37] to make sure that it gets registered [01:39] where [01:41] where they where they're supposed to [01:42] vote. Not that it matters too much, [01:44] because Israel doesn't have [01:46] constituency elections, but still it's [01:49] usually, you know, you can see these [01:51] statistics afterwards according to [01:53] polling stations, according to all these [01:54] sort of things. And interestingly, the [01:56] soldiers' [01:58] ballots are actually uh opened or [02:02] tallied after [02:05] uh the day itself, the election day. So, [02:07] when we usually get that first [02:10] sort of poll based on what's happened in [02:14] the day and that's relatively [02:17] accurate. [02:18] Things can change the next day. Usually, [02:20] soldiers tilt to the right and I can [02:23] imagine that's probably even more true. [02:25] Um [02:26] uh what's happened over the last few [02:28] years, although I'm sure there'll be a [02:29] certain amount of anger against the [02:31] government for what is perceived widely [02:34] for not addressing [02:37] the equality of enlistment across all [02:40] sectors. [02:41] Um [02:42] but there's really [02:44] you know, things are heating up. The [02:46] last poll will be released on Friday [02:49] because there's no polls allowed to be [02:51] released in the days before elections. [02:54] And I think [02:55] official campaigning ends as well a [02:57] couple of days before, but obviously [02:59] campaigns have ways to get their [03:01] messages [03:02] out. [03:03] And [clears throat] as it's been for the [03:05] last few [03:08] months even, neither block has an [03:11] obvious path to a coalition. Still, the [03:14] numbers do not add up. Um the current [03:18] coalition, I've seen it holding again [03:21] depending who passes and who doesn't. [03:25] Ofir Winter's party and Shas, people of [03:27] Israel, [03:28] sometimes passes, sometimes doesn't. [03:31] It's considered part of the coalition [03:33] block because at the beginning of the [03:35] campaign, Ofir Winter said that he would [03:37] only sit with the right-wing government [03:39] under Netanyahu, etc. etc. [03:41] Interestingly, today and I'll speak a [03:43] little bit more about why he's actually [03:46] walking back a little bit some of those [03:49] sort of earlier commitments, but [03:51] still he's never considered really part [03:53] of the opposition block. Um so, [03:55] depending whether he gets in or not, the [03:57] the um coalition [04:00] is [04:01] I'm not talking about there are polls by [04:04] extremely favorable news or portals or [04:07] TV stations which are giving them an [04:09] outright victory of 62 63 seats, [04:12] but they're not taken so seriously from [04:13] the serious [04:15] um polling there getting anything from [04:17] 49 to 53. And again, depending on who [04:20] crosses the threshold and who doesn't. [04:22] The [04:24] uh opposition are getting again between [04:26] 53 55. [04:29] Um I haven't seen too many more than [04:31] that. But again, it means that they're [04:34] also shy of that uh 60, even if you [04:37] include Yisrael Beiteinu party, the [04:40] Miller Women in the Knesset, the reserve [04:41] soldiers. [04:42] Um [04:43] if they pass, maybe that's four seats, [04:45] and again, they're still shy of that [04:47] important uh 61. So, at the moment, [04:51] neither side have that um [04:54] obvious path. And again, [04:58] there's a lot going on, there's a lot [04:59] could happen. But what we do know is [05:02] Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a panic. [05:04] He's put tremendous pressure on trying [05:07] to get two particular parties out of the [05:10] race. The first is um [05:13] Ofer Winters party. He's been going at [05:15] them for quite a while. All sorts of [05:18] attacks [05:20] um in the media, behind the scenes, [05:22] claiming he's a closet leftist, he's [05:24] going to bring the left-wing uh Arab [05:27] government to uh [05:29] to uh to power in Israel. [05:32] Uh and other times he's saying he's just [05:34] going to burn right-wing votes. Um [05:37] but again, you know, I talked last week [05:39] about the pressure on the candidates as [05:42] well. And and the number eight at the [05:43] time [05:45] um resigned his position. It wasn't a [05:47] serious [05:49] uh position anyway because at most [05:50] they're going to get four, maybe five [05:52] seats at most. [05:53] Um, but it just shows the pressure. The [05:55] pressure continues. [05:57] Um, [05:58] they try to speak to Offir Winters' [06:01] rabbi, [06:02] um, who he's close with to try and [06:04] convince him to get out of the race. I [06:06] mean, all sorts of dirty tricks, some of [06:08] which I'm aware of, which I don't want [06:10] to relay, but they are pretty dirty. Um, [06:13] but so far Winters is holding firm and [06:16] saying, "I'm in it uh to the end." The [06:18] latest polls show he's [06:21] more often than not crossing the [06:22] threshold, which will give him more of [06:25] an impetus and perhaps his supporters [06:27] and those who I think you have [06:28] supporting him say, "Well, he's going to [06:30] cross anyway, so I'm not wasting my [06:32] vote." Obviously, if he goes below, then [06:34] a lot of people will think, "I'm wasting [06:36] my vote. I'm going to put it elsewhere." [06:38] Interestingly enough, another focus [06:41] uh by Netanyahu over the last couple of [06:43] days is a party we haven't spoken too [06:45] much about, uh but I should say, [06:48] um, just for honesty, uh I was working [06:51] with them earlier in the campaign, is [06:53] the Hadsi Borha Ahareidi, uh the um [06:57] the it translates to the ultra-Orthodox [07:00] community. It is a party of moderate [07:03] ultra-Orthodox who wants to have more [07:05] people serve in the army, who want to [07:07] learn more general studies at school, [07:10] who want a more uh [07:12] liberal outlook, let's just put it that [07:14] way, to give uh Ahareidi ultra-Orthodox [07:16] people a better path into the workforce, [07:19] in into uh public life, to get out of [07:22] the cycle of poverty, to get under out [07:25] from behind the established parties, [07:28] which uh have the monopoly at the moment [07:31] of political power in the ultra-Orthodox [07:33] community. [07:34] There's a big debate exactly what's [07:36] going to happen with them. Some say that [07:38] they will be the surprise uh of the [07:40] elections. At the moment, no one's [07:42] giving them more than [07:44] a 0.3 of a percent, 0.5 of a percent. At [07:47] one point, they were polling 1.5, 1.6%. [07:52] Um, but [07:53] there is a feeling that they could do a [07:55] lot better than the polls currently [07:56] suggest. First of all, because a lot of [07:58] Haredim, in a conservative society, [08:00] don't want to say they're voting for [08:02] something new, [08:03] something which is seen as a little bit [08:05] more reformist, liberal-minded, etc., [08:07] etc. And also, it's possible that [08:10] younger ultra-Orthodox who want a better [08:12] future will vote for them, or even [08:15] ultra-Orthodox women. For the first time [08:17] ever in the history of the state of [08:18] Israel, an ultra-Orthodox party doesn't [08:21] just have one woman on their list, it [08:23] actually has two. Shas and the United [08:26] Torah Judaism would never dare, never [08:28] even approach the idea of having a woman [08:31] on their list. And [08:33] this party has two in the top four. Now, [08:36] what's interesting is that, as I've said [08:38] before, many times, Netanyahu is an [08:41] extremely [08:43] prominent poster. [08:46] He's polling all the time. He has his [08:48] finger on the pulse of things. And the [08:49] fact that he's now putting pressure on [08:51] this party shows that maybe they are [08:53] doing better than one would think. [08:55] Again, it doesn't mean they're passing [08:57] threshold, even if they get 80,000 [09:00] votes. You need about 120, 130 to pass. [09:03] But 80,000 votes, they would be [09:06] pretty much thrown in the dustbin. [09:08] Because if your party [09:10] you vote for doesn't pass the threshold, [09:13] then your vote doesn't count. [09:15] Um [09:16] but the fact that Netanyahu has put [09:19] tremendous pressure, has called meeting [09:21] with the leader of the party, Matty [09:23] Lightner, personally on at least two [09:24] occasions, [09:26] promised him a position in the [09:27] government, a position to better [09:30] integrate the ultra-Orthodox into [09:32] society, into education and army, shows [09:35] that he really desperately wants [09:39] Lieberman and the Haredi out of the [09:42] race. [09:43] There's also been some nasty tactics [09:45] there, a lot of pressure, a lot of [09:46] abuse, trying to find anyone who have [09:49] any sort of pressure on them. At the [09:50] moment, both of them are standing firm. [09:52] They're both staying in the race, [09:55] and I would probably think that's [09:57] probably going to going to continue. The [10:01] opposition block managed to get I think [10:03] we talked about this last week. Managed [10:05] to get one of their parties that clearly [10:08] isn't going to pass the electoral [10:10] threshold, and that's Blue and White [10:13] of Benny Gantz. Don't forget Benny Gantz [10:15] at one point was the great opposition [10:18] leader to Netanyahu, and now he bows out [10:21] pretty much with a whimper, no hope of [10:23] crossing the threshold, and he bowed [10:25] out. And he's actually today completely [10:27] resigned his whole party, which means [10:29] that his ballot will not appear at the [10:32] ballot box on election day, which is [10:33] significant because sometimes people [10:35] don't hear about parties dropping out, [10:37] and they can still vote for them even [10:38] though that vote won't count. So they [10:40] the opposition camp has has been a bit [10:42] more successful in trying to get [10:45] one of its own that isn't going to pass [10:47] the threshold out. However, within the [10:50] opposition block, there is a certain [10:53] amount of infighting. [10:55] You know, there's this question of [10:58] who they should support. Should they [10:59] rally around and say that Gadi Eisenkot [11:02] is clearly going to get [11:04] the according to polls at least, the [11:07] largest amount of seats in the [11:09] opposition block. Should they all say [11:11] they're going to recommend him for prime [11:12] minister? We've spoken about this in the [11:14] past, and if Lieberman and Bennett, both [11:17] of whom say that they are candidates for [11:19] candidates for prime minister, if they [11:21] were basically to say, "Well, we are [11:23] going to support Eisenkot for prime [11:25] minister," [11:26] then basically they're saying that they [11:27] have [11:28] no chance to even get close, and that [11:30] will lose them a certain amount of [11:32] support. People like to vote for people [11:35] that they think could stand a chance to [11:37] be prime minister. So again, is Bennett [11:39] going to be the largest party in the [11:41] opposition block? No. Is Lieberman? No. [11:44] But it's a more tactical reason that [11:45] they haven't quite [11:47] crossed that threshold and basically [11:49] said that they will support Eisenkot [11:51] even though probably when push comes to [11:53] shove after elections if the polls are [11:55] correct, they will recommend him. [11:59] Another important element is the voting [12:00] percentage. We saw [12:03] today according to polling that the [12:06] left-wing or the opposition blocks, [12:08] let's say, let's not forget in the [12:10] opposition block there are right-wing [12:12] parties, centrist parties, right of [12:13] center party, and left-wing party. [12:17] But the the opposition block parties [12:19] seem to be coming out again according to [12:22] intention [12:24] in far greater numbers than the [12:25] coalition. That that happens frequently [12:28] in elections around the world. It's [12:29] always easier to vote against for [12:31] something that against something than [12:33] for something. [12:34] But there is a few [12:36] percentage points difference between the [12:38] two blocks and that could make a [12:42] world of difference. [12:45] And basically we'll have to wait and [12:47] see. There are people in the Likud who [12:49] believe, sometimes they say this for [12:51] effect and sometimes it's actually true, [12:54] that [12:55] Likud voters are a little bit sleepy. [12:58] They're taking it for granted. Perhaps [13:01] there's not that as much enthusiasm as [13:03] as as previously. Remains to be seen, [13:06] but voting [13:07] turnout is massive. It's very important. [13:11] Whoever's able to get their people out [13:13] can shatter whatever the polls say [13:15] because let's not forget when a poll is [13:17] taken [13:18] it basically polls, let's say, 500 [13:20] people, but they'll keep on calling [13:22] people or if it's an online one until [13:26] they get those 500 [13:28] responses. Now, in in real elections, [13:32] there are people who just simply don't [13:33] vote, but they don't tally those in [13:34] polls. So, if you're polling [13:37] 10 seats, but your [13:39] numbers will come out at 90%. It's far [13:42] greater than someone, you know, who's [13:43] polling at [13:45] 13 seats and will come out at 60%. [13:49] I don't know if I've done the exact [13:50] math, but I think you get the point. [13:53] So, we'll have to wait and see. All the [13:54] parties will be doing as much as [13:56] possible now and on the day of elections [13:59] to get out the vote. That's crucial for [14:01] any elections. GOTV, get out the vote. [14:04] It's D-day. It's It can make the [14:06] difference. [14:08] Perhaps we will see one side or another [14:10] get that 61. At the moment, again, I [14:13] wouldn't put my money on it, but we'll [14:15] have to wait and see. [14:17] As on a on a completely different note, [14:20] but to some extent um [14:22] related is the whole question of what's [14:24] going to happen with Iran. [14:26] Will Iran attack Israel? Will Israel [14:30] attack Iran? Or the elections, during [14:32] the elections, after the elections, [14:34] before the midterms? All of these [14:36] different assessments are going round [14:37] and round and lots of analysts and sort [14:40] of leaks are talking about what's [14:43] exactly going to happen. There were [14:44] reports tonight that the Israel Air [14:46] Force [14:47] was sent off on a mission where they [14:49] basically reached almost to the border [14:52] of Iran before turning around. According [14:55] to these sources, [14:57] Israel did tell the Americans about it. [15:00] They claimed [15:01] that it was a practice run, but there [15:03] are some who are nervous that that was [15:06] meant to provoke the Iranians into an [15:08] attack, which would obviously [15:10] necessitate a response. At the moment, [15:13] it didn't. [15:15] But it's it's very interesting. There's [15:18] um [15:19] other reports that Netanyahu tried to [15:21] coax [15:23] Trump into an attack on Iran [15:26] a couple of weeks ago, [15:28] but again that didn't happen. [15:29] Interestingly, which I didn't mention, [15:31] which I I certainly should mention at [15:32] this point, is that President Trump put [15:35] out this week after saying he might get [15:38] involved, he might not get involved, he [15:40] put out a full-throated [15:43] endorsement of Prime Minister Netanyahu, [15:45] calling him a great Prime Minister. [15:48] Israel wouldn't you know, he he uses all [15:51] language which we're familiar with, [15:53] but most interestingly [15:55] which a lot of people are talking about [15:57] is [15:59] the part of the post obviously on Truth [16:01] Social where [16:04] Donald Trump said that if Bibi does not [16:07] get reelected, I might have to go it [16:10] alone on Iran. So really putting the [16:14] pressure on Israeli voters to try and [16:16] swing things towards Netanyahu. There [16:18] was a big debate, will he, won't he [16:21] endorse, [16:22] and we saw that he did. Be interesting, [16:25] is there quid pro quo in there [16:27] somewhere? Is there something that Bibi [16:29] promised him? [16:31] We'll have to wait and see. [16:32] As things stand, again, [16:34] Donald Trump seems to be moving towards [16:38] some sort of action against Iran. [16:41] Some of the um [16:43] the armaments are coming back to the [16:45] region. They might take a while, they [16:47] might not, but interestingly as well on [16:50] Monday, I believe it was, [16:52] Netanyahu was supposed to attend a [16:55] soccer match, a football match, which I [16:56] was actually [16:57] >> [clears throat] [16:58] >> attending and there was this question, [16:59] is he going to come, is not, security [17:01] etc. And at the last minute he cancelled [17:04] for a so-called security meeting. And [17:08] only afterwards did we learn that it was [17:09] actually on a [17:12] base, an air force base in Israel with [17:15] Secretary of War Pete Heske, which is [17:18] also [17:19] getting tongues wagging very much in [17:23] Israel. What were they talking about? [17:25] What did What message did he bring? [17:28] And what is this mean? So, there's a lot [17:31] going on. [17:32] There's constant threats by Israeli [17:36] political leaders and military leaders [17:38] to its enemies in the region, don't [17:41] provoke us, don't do anything during the [17:44] elections. [17:47] IDF Chief of Staff [17:49] Zamir once again said that if there is [17:51] an attack on before elections, then [17:54] elections will have to be [17:56] canceled. But at the moment, it seems [17:58] elections will take place, although the [18:00] saber-rattling, the talk of attacks or [18:03] not attacks is certainly helping the [18:06] coalition because as I've said [18:09] previously, talk of security will always [18:11] help Netanyahu because he's seen as Mr. [18:14] Security, even [18:16] after October 7th, talk of other issues [18:20] like ultra-Orthodox enlistment are not [18:22] good for him. There were more [18:24] demonstrations this week with the [18:27] ultra-Orthodox. So, it is there in the [18:29] background. And in fact, interestingly, [18:34] I think 24 [18:36] Chabad [18:38] Israeli yeshiva students who came back [18:40] after learning for a year in New York [18:42] were arrested. They were told before [18:44] they left that they could be arrested [18:46] because they had not enlisted or even [18:48] started the process. They were taken [18:50] into custody and they were told, "Either [18:53] you have to enlist or you will be sent [18:55] to prison." And in the end, I think all [18:57] but two [18:58] have started the process of enlistment, [19:01] which is very interesting because I [19:03] think that's the first time it's [19:04] happened. [19:05] As one can imagine, the ultra-Orthodox [19:07] were up in arms about it and blamed [19:09] Netanyahu. And Netanyahu himself had to [19:12] come out and say that he disagreed with [19:13] this and he's trying to interfere in the [19:16] electoral system and and politics and [19:18] this is not the way to enlist the [19:20] ultra-Orthodox [19:22] because he blames through coercion is [19:25] not the way and we will find a proper [19:28] way which they didn't manage to find if [19:30] we remember for years even though there [19:32] was the promise to do so [19:34] and it got to the point where [19:36] the ultra-Orthodox are now taking a leaf [19:39] out of after winters book if we remember [19:42] a couple of weeks ago after winter said [19:43] that he would not join any government [19:45] until a law has been passed [19:48] that basically ensures the enlistment of [19:51] if not all most ultra-Orthodox [19:55] I said at the time that that's not [19:57] going to happen it's never happened that [19:59] passage of significant law before [20:00] government sworn in there's no coalition [20:03] there's no opposition and now the [20:05] ultra-Orthodox are saying the complete [20:07] opposite we will not join any government [20:09] until [20:10] there is a law to basically legalize the [20:12] situation where the overwhelming [20:14] majority if not all ultra-Orthodox youth [20:17] do not serve in the army again highly [20:20] unlikely [20:21] it could happen but again it's sending a [20:24] message to Netanyahu and no longer in [20:26] your camp necessarily no longer in your [20:29] pocket [20:30] and also to try and get their people out [20:32] because uh [20:34] they've certainly the ultra-Orthodox [20:36] parties partly because of what we said [20:38] before about the Haredi Haredi but [20:40] partly because they're angry [20:43] a lot of the communities are angry that [20:45] there was no law to legalize their [20:46] situation and [20:48] we'll have to see exactly how that [20:50] affects [20:51] the results of the that I'm going to go [20:53] to questions and please feel free to put [20:55] in more questions while I ask these [20:58] um [21:00] Debbie Eden asks or Eden what has been [21:04] the average voting percentage China in [21:06] previous elections where is wrong I [21:08] can't remember the exact numbers. I [21:09] think it's It's usually in the late 60s [21:12] if it's a relatively calm elections. If [21:14] it's If there's more at stake, [21:18] then it can be in the early 70s, which [21:20] again is is pretty high for a Western [21:22] country. [21:23] Um [21:24] and those percentages matter. Uh the [21:27] moment it seems like we're going to get [21:28] a pretty high turnout, [21:31] and there's a debate exactly who that [21:33] favors, but probably most I'm going to [21:35] say it favors uh the opposition. Uh so, [21:38] we'll have to see exactly what happens [21:41] uh on the day itself. As I said to you [21:43] before, it's you it's it's easier to get [21:46] people [21:47] um who are angry, who are out of power, [21:49] who are disappointed in [21:51] those who are in power out to vote [21:53] rather than people who are supporters [21:56] or, you know, soft supporters of uh [21:59] those already in power. [22:01] Next question. Jack Wasserman asked what [22:03] impact does Trump's endorsement have? [22:06] Well, there There was meant to be a [22:07] strong impact. [22:10] According to the polls, not much. Um [22:14] we'll have to see on the day, obviously, [22:16] exactly if it did have [22:18] uh an impact. [22:20] Um It could be that it in hasn't landed [22:23] properly yet [22:24] um because they did the polls probably [22:26] in the last 24 hours, and uh President [22:29] Trump's endorsement only preceded that [22:32] uh I mean, just sometimes events take [22:35] time to percolate uh down to the people. [22:38] Uh so, it could be that the impact [22:40] hasn't happened yet, but [22:41] it doesn't seem like it's having a [22:43] significant [22:45] uh impact. Interestingly, and it's in [22:48] your claim that [22:49] he took him by surprise, he didn't [22:51] prepare it. Um yet we saw posters out [22:54] within the hour. And to create posters [22:56] needs printing, needs ideas, needs [22:59] strategy. [23:00] Um you know, it it doesn't come out with [23:02] it [23:03] within an hour. I can tell you having [23:05] worked on many campaigns. So, it's clear [23:07] that this was well known in advance. Was [23:09] it Was it coordinated? Is there a quid [23:11] pro quo? Again, these are questions we [23:13] don't have answers to, but it certainly [23:16] clearly did not take uh Netanyahu [23:19] uh by surprise. [23:21] Uh Bob Bobby Rambowitz asked, "What do [23:24] you think was the purpose of Mike [23:26] Huckabee's meeting with Gadi Eisenkot [23:28] and snubbing Netanyahu?" [23:30] Um, maybe you also declared that [23:32] Ben-Gvir will not become defense [23:34] minister. [23:35] Um, [23:36] first of all, Mike Huckabee [23:39] is not snubbing Netanyahu at at all. [23:42] They meet regularly and their people [23:44] meet even more regularly. [23:46] Um, [23:47] it's the job of any ambassador to meet [23:49] all the different players and Gadi [23:51] Eisenkot is a major player. He's at the [23:53] moment polling the largest party. Um, [23:56] and he could well be the next uh prime [23:58] minister. So, it wouldn't surprise me it [24:01] it [24:01] I'm sure that they have met at some [24:03] point in the past and it's just normal [24:06] uh behavior to get to know all the [24:08] different leaders. I've been part of [24:10] these meetings uh with various [24:11] politicians I've worked in. All the [24:13] ambassadors of all the countries try to [24:15] get meetings with all different uh [24:17] politicians and as much as Donald Trump [24:20] uh has officially endorsed [24:22] uh Netanyahu, it would be remiss for the [24:24] US and the US representative not to get [24:28] to know [24:29] um [24:30] an alternative uh leader uh as well. [24:33] Yes, you're right that uh Netanyahu has [24:36] declared that Ben-Gvir will not be [24:37] defense minister. He said this defense [24:39] minister will stay with ministry will [24:41] stay with us. [24:42] Um, in fact, Ben-Gvir has gone on the [24:44] attack and saying that uh Netanyahu is [24:47] trying to quell support, trying to [24:49] attack him. And there's been quite a [24:50] back and forth [24:52] uh uh between the two. Um, but obviously [24:56] uh Ben-Gvir has has said that uh [24:59] Netanyahu won't make him uh defense [25:02] minister because of pressure from [25:04] Europe. I'm sure there probably is [25:07] pressure from Europe, but [25:09] we've seen before that if Netanyahu [25:11] needs uh Ben-Gvir for his coalition and [25:15] you know, he has the right numbers, then [25:16] he could probably uh demand uh a senior [25:19] ministry. But again, it will all come [25:21] down to how powerful he is if Netanyahu [25:24] is even in power to be able to dish out [25:27] uh ministries uh like that. [25:30] Uh anonymous attendee asked how much [25:32] does it cost to hold elections? Again, I [25:35] I I have heard the figures in the past [25:37] and I don't want to just throw out a [25:38] number [25:39] uh because I could be way off. Um, but [25:41] I'm sure it's something you could find [25:42] pretty easily [25:44] on Google or [25:45] or AI. [25:46] Um [25:48] George's Peleus also asked the same [25:50] thing about Trump's endorsement. I I [25:52] answered that before. [25:54] Um [25:58] An- Another question, is it true that [26:00] Ofir Winter is close to Avigdor [26:01] Lieberman? Um [26:03] They are close, I know that. Uh Ofir [26:05] Winter was um [26:07] Avigdor Lieberman's military secretary [26:10] when he was um [26:13] uh defense minister. They are close. [26:15] Um [26:16] that's part of what's driving Netanyahu [26:19] crazy. Netanyahu knows that Ofir Winter [26:21] and [26:22] you know, himself, they do not have a [26:24] good relationship going back a long [26:26] time. Ofir doesn't trust Netanyahu. [26:28] Netanyahu doesn't trust Ofir Winter. [26:31] Part of that is because he knows that [26:33] he's close to Lieberman. [26:35] Um, but there's a there's a there's a [26:36] whole uh load of other issues to unpack [26:40] in there as well. Um [26:42] but yeah, uh Winter is close. Again, I [26:45] don't think that will necessarily play [26:47] into [26:48] um [26:49] you know, what what what is going to [26:51] happen [26:52] um because at the end of the day it's up [26:53] to the winter's interest to try and get [26:55] the best deal for [26:56] himself and his party. [26:59] Um [27:03] Uh [27:04] Rubin was asked, "Isn't forced [27:05] recruitment akin akin to the kidnapping [27:07] of young religious boys in Tsarist [27:09] Russia [27:11] intended to assimilate them stripping [27:12] them of every vestige of Judaism?" [27:15] Quite the contrary. [27:17] Every you know Israel doesn't have the [27:20] luxury of having one whole community not [27:23] serve in the army. This is a [27:26] Jewish state [27:28] and this is not Tsarist Russia and no [27:31] one was trying to assimilate them. In [27:32] fact, there's been quite a large effort [27:34] by the IDF in recent years. Certainly [27:37] if you were talking about 10 20 years [27:39] ago, I wouldn't say that there's an [27:40] attempt to assimilate them, but they [27:42] certainly didn't take their [27:44] lifestyle into as much consideration. [27:46] Today there are units just about to [27:48] Orthodox where they spend significant [27:50] amount of time learning. They don't come [27:52] into contact with females. They get [27:55] you know [27:57] large kosher meals. They get everything [27:59] that they need. It was built between the [28:01] Haredi community and the IDF to try and [28:04] ensure as much as possible that [28:06] ultra-Orthodox who go into the army can [28:08] come out ultra-Orthodox and so far this [28:10] unit Kashmanaim has got a an almost 100% [28:14] rate. There's there's nothing [28:15] you know nothing is ever [28:18] you know [28:18] known in advance. You know if you send [28:21] your son or daughter into the army you [28:23] don't know if they'll come back alive. [28:25] So no one can promise anything but the [28:27] idea that going to [28:29] the army to to defend the people of [28:33] Israel [28:34] is like [28:35] Tsarist Russia is is a bit of an insult. [28:38] It's it it's [28:41] it's associating the Israeli government [28:43] the Jewish state with some of the worst [28:46] anti-Semites. [28:48] Um, and at the end of the day, it's a [28:50] Jewish value to to serve in the army. [28:52] There is actual Jewish law uh, to serve [28:54] in the army, something that the [28:55] ultra-Orthodox leadership have never [28:57] quite been able to answer. So, [29:00] um, [29:00] the religious community go to the army. [29:03] In fact, they try and go to the the more [29:06] uh, elite units as possible because they [29:08] want to serve the country. They want to [29:10] defend its people. So, this idea that [29:12] the army has this intention to [29:14] assimilate and strip them of Judaism [29:17] just simply simply doesn't stand up to [29:19] reality. [29:20] Uh, finally, one last question what odds [29:23] from an anonymous identity. What odds [29:25] would you give the formation of a unity [29:27] government? Um, if everyone keeps their [29:29] word, it won't happen. [29:31] Um, [29:32] and if if Netanyahu stays as leader of [29:35] Likud, which [29:36] I don't see him leaving at any point. [29:38] So, I would say they're pretty low odds [29:41] um, because there's too many promises [29:43] being made, but [29:44] and this is a big but, when push comes [29:47] to shove, when when it comes to it, [29:48] either a unity government or or more [29:51] elections, [29:52] um, it could be that when you you have [29:54] to go a little bit more into the [29:56] details, a unity government led by [29:59] Netanyahu is something that the [30:01] opposition would countenance. They've [30:02] seen this show before with Benny Gantz. [30:05] They um, they know that if Netanyahu [30:07] promises a rotation, it never happens. [30:10] Uh, on the other side, Netanyahu cannot [30:12] be [30:13] second in rotation because [30:15] if he is not prime minister, he's going [30:17] to have to resign from politics uh, from [30:20] from from the government, from the [30:22] Knesset because there was a law that [30:24] says that someone under indictment [30:26] cannot serve as a minister. Now, there [30:27] was a big debate, does that include [30:29] prime minister? And in the end, uh, the [30:31] legal um, [30:33] uh, [30:34] you know, infrastructure came down on [30:36] the opinion that no, prime minister can [30:39] continue, but that basically means that [30:41] Netanyahu cannot serve [30:43] as a minister, only as prime minister. [30:46] So, again, [30:47] it would be almost impossible to do a [30:49] rotation where Netanyahu comes second. [30:52] So, I would say the odds are low, not [30:53] impossible, [30:55] but certainly not. And with that, I'd [30:56] like to thank you for all your questions [30:58] and your presence. And have a good day [31:01] and good night and those who are going [31:03] to vote, vote well. Thank you and good [31:06] night. [31:07] >> [music] [31:14] [music] [31:23] [music]
