Transcript [00:00] which main party can actually build a [00:03] coalition. We actually have some some [00:05] games that we can try and play here. I [00:07] have this iPad set up in front of me, so [00:08] let's hope that it works on the screen [00:10] as well. Uh, but we have a an idea of [00:13] all of the different party blocks. I'm [00:16] not sure if our we can see them on our [00:18] screen here [00:20] from the different coalitions. [00:24] Uh, here we go. Okay. So, gentlemen, I [00:26] want to ask you because these are [00:28] according to the I24 News exit polls. [00:30] These are the numbers that we have. Uh [00:33] Owen, I'll start with you. If Netanyahu [00:36] has the largest [00:39] party right now, he still has to make a [00:41] coalition. And so, when you're looking [00:42] at who he might turn to for partners, [00:45] who might be the more surprising [00:47] options, [00:47] >> right? Well, obviously, let's start with [00:49] the obvious ones. The Likud party, the [00:52] two Karedi parties, United toward [00:53] Judaism and Shas, the religious Zionism [00:56] party, the Zahoot party, which is a [00:58] separate party of one Mosha Faglin and [01:02] Mayudit of Vimar Benvir puts him [01:04] probably we'll use the I24 news numbers [01:06] which are shaping up to be strong ones [01:08] 55 six short of the number needed. Where [01:12] will he go to get the others? He doesn't [01:14] want to enter some kind of unity [01:15] government formally. uh he can try to [01:17] bring as Gil said factions or parts of [01:20] factions two logical places to start one [01:22] is Abigur Liberman's Israel Betenu party [01:25] and the other is parts of and I think [01:28] it's important to mention this to [01:29] emphasize parts of the Byak party the [01:31] Bakad party as we remember from our long [01:33] ago memories is a merger of Natali [01:35] Bennett and and Laid the Bennett part of [01:38] that party about twothirds of it is the [01:40] more right-wing element uh than the laid [01:43] third and so one wonders if Netanyahu [01:45] would be able to get that But he doesn't [01:46] need it numerically. He could do it just [01:48] with with the be with the the Bennett [01:51] pardon under Israeli law. You could have [01:54] that one-third go off on its own and [01:56] have it work in the Knesset. You could [01:58] also obviously try to find people [02:00] individually or try to bring in Yashar [02:03] under some kind of unity arrangement to [02:05] get an even bigger number. [02:06] >> Well, if we bring in Yashar there, [02:08] that's 80 seats and that's a stable [02:09] government. However, [02:10] >> plus but it's unnecessary for him to get [02:12] there in order to get over the top. [02:14] >> Yes. And to do that he would need either [02:16] you know Vdor Liberman's elenu or the [02:20] elements inad that are the right-wing [02:22] elements or to try to work individually [02:25] with the members of Knesseta to try to [02:27] bring them around. But once you're [02:29] starting with 55 you're you're six away [02:32] from that majority. It could be [02:33] difficult to work with people [02:34] individually. I suspect you might have [02:36] to work with them as a block. Uh, all [02:38] right, Gil, I want your perspective here [02:39] because you've been floating some more [02:42] less talked about options for who could [02:44] even be the prime minister and who could [02:46] be tasked with forming a coalition. And [02:48] so when you're taking a look at the [02:49] initial exit polls, where do you think [02:51] could actually form a stable coalition? [02:54] Well, uh, Donald Trump can certainly [02:56] help in that and if he calls up, uh, [02:59] Gaddy Eisenhot and encourages him to [03:01] join a government and it becomes more of [03:03] a unity government than Netanyahu talked [03:05] about in the speech, though he did say [03:07] the the verb lead, which can be uh [03:10] defined as either unify or become more [03:12] good. Then look at his 55 that he had [03:15] before, [03:17] take out Benvver [03:19] and add Eisenh. [03:22] So you 55 minus 7 is 48 plus 20. [03:29] >> I'm [03:30] >> I'm sorry if I lost you there. [03:32] >> You I'm a journalist, not a [03:34] mathematician. Gil, that's where you [03:35] always lose me. [03:36] >> Okay, so you've got your lias United [03:41] Torah Judaism [03:44] >> and uh and [03:45] >> Eizenot. Now, the reason why I say Eisen [03:49] Cot is uh because unity is the key and [03:52] because his his part is actually more [03:54] rightwing than Bennett. Um including the [03:57] Bennett part of the Bennett list because [04:00] he didn't make any effort to make it [04:02] right-wing. Um he just got more people [04:06] that would have belonged in Yeshit [04:07] anyway, whereas Eisenhot got nine [04:11] religious scientists in his top 21 [04:13] candidates. Um, and you're talking about [04:16] a rotation. Uh, if Netanyahu would want [04:19] to leave around the time that Trump [04:20] leaves anyway and not have to deal with [04:22] AOC or or Josh Shapiro to be more [04:25] optimistic, um, then let Eisenhot be the [04:30] prime minister of the second half. Um, [04:32] this is one way. [04:33] >> We did hear something interesting from [04:35] United Torah Judaism. also uh the itaken [04:39] he said in an interview with one of the [04:41] channels that he's not opposed or he's [04:44] not at least ruling out sitting with [04:46] Eisenh [04:47] >> that's right that was repeated in [04:48] interviews tonight in Israeli television [04:50] uh by Yakov the new head of United Torah [04:52] Judaism the question Nicole is whether [04:54] that was simply a rhetorical device [04:56] during the campaign to get under [04:58] Nitanyao's skin or demonstrate [04:59] independence or generate leverage or if [05:02] this is a real policy proposal from them [05:04] but it has to be understood there are OB [05:06] there are real policy obstacles for this [05:09] group for example to join up with with [05:11] with Gotti Eisen code. There are real [05:13] divides in the issue of the draft. This [05:15] is an emotional issue in Israel as a [05:16] central issue in the election campaign [05:18] and it's not an easy square to circle uh [05:21] if you will but the [05:24] parties for their own reason are leaving [05:25] it open. The official answer tonight was [05:28] we have to wait to see what the final [05:29] numbers are of course and then we have [05:31] to take it to the rabbis and let the [05:32] rabbis decide and then we'll move from [05:33] there. But at any rate, if you want to [05:35] try to build the coalition, we can give [05:37] it a shot. [05:38] >> Isaac potentially in this case getting [05:40] the second stab at it with the mandate. [05:43] But we'll put the four parties of the [05:44] change block up first. [05:47] >> The Yashar Party, Yakad, Abigen, Israel, [05:51] Betenu, and the Democratim and then put [05:54] on United Torah Judaism and Shas if they [05:57] were both able to come in together. And [06:00] we're still short. [06:02] >> And you still need to find No, [06:04] >> there. [06:04] >> There we go. I figured we would be over [06:06] the line with those two together. Uh, [06:08] and then yeah, a 64 seat coalition. [06:10] These coalitions have existed in Israel [06:12] in the distant past between the [06:14] center-left block and the KDI parties. [06:16] Kedi parties for large parts of the [06:18] 1980s and 1990s saw themselves and [06:20] genuinely played the political game of [06:22] being in the balance of power between [06:24] right and left. That's changed in the [06:26] Netanyahu era. They're trying to revive [06:28] that old form of leverage, but because [06:30] times have changed and demographics have [06:32] changed, it won't be as easy for them to [06:34] >> gentlemen, we're still not talking about [06:36] anywhere between 16 to 19 seats, and [06:40] that is the Arab parties. Is there any [06:43] coalition that can have the Arab parties [06:45] as well? uh considering most of their [06:48] promises at this point have said no we [06:51] want to see a Zionist whether that be [06:53] the opposition Zionist or the coalition [06:56] Zionist but still a Zionist party. So [06:58] Gil, when you look at those 16 to 19 [07:01] seats that the Arab parties are getting, [07:02] what happens to them? Well, first of [07:05] all, if if Netanyahu would receive the [07:07] mandate first and then failed to get 61 [07:10] because none of the parties uh in the [07:13] anti-Netanyahu block would defect and [07:15] none of the Knesset members either [07:17] breaking off from their party and then [07:20] Eisenhot then gets a mandate to form a [07:23] government and doesn't draft anybody [07:24] from the leud even relying right now on [07:27] Mansur Abbas does not cross the 61 [07:32] >> in any poll including the I24 poll [07:37] that's apparently the most accurate. Um [07:40] so uh then what would happen [07:44] is either he would have to really rely [07:46] on the joint Arab list um not uh either [07:52] abstaining or or voting in favor [07:54] temporarily in order to depose Netanyahu [07:58] by having a minority government [08:01] and then switching the Knesset speaker [08:03] and then it wouldn't last very long [08:06] because there are things that the joint [08:07] list wouldn't vote for that that the [08:09] coalition would need. Um, and they would [08:13] try to pass just uh the very basics of [08:16] an October 7th inquiry, drafting yeshiva [08:19] students and the anti Netanyahu bills [08:21] and then they could go to an election [08:23] that Netanyahu can't run in. It's harder [08:26] because relying on Mansurbas is [08:30] something that could be seen as kosher. [08:32] They've got Yavalovich. relying on the [08:34] joint list especially after that [08:36] Netanyahu speech and there's no [08:37] legitimacy for that in the public. So [08:39] can I have a third chance [08:40] >> please Gil? [08:41] >> Okay so what happens then is since [08:44] Eisenot would not want to harm his image [08:48] by making a deal with a joint list. What [08:51] happens then is that [08:55] after that any candidate any Knesseta [08:57] member has three weeks to try to form a [09:00] government before we would go to another [09:02] election in March. It it actually [09:04] doesn't involve the president anymore. [09:06] It's only in the Knesset. And [09:08] >> have we seen this happen before? [09:10] >> Sure. During the years of the political [09:11] stain and some of the rounds, the Sudo. [09:13] >> Yes. So, um, this is where a Victor [09:16] Lieberman can come in and say, "I'm [09:20] right-wing. I'm in the anti-Netanyao [09:22] camp." and uh then try to form a [09:25] government with uh all the parties in [09:28] the anti-Netanyao camp and then try to [09:31] draft someone uh in the pro-Netanyao [09:35] camp who would be afraid of going to an [09:37] election because they might not do so [09:40] well there [09:41] >> bringing over some of the loot ministers [09:43] you're stating [09:44] >> right for a right-wing government um [09:47] it's another idea out there that again [09:48] is easier after you pass the [09:50] anti-Netanyao laws that can be passed [09:52] During that whole time period of the six [09:55] weeks that the first person has a chance [09:57] to form a government and the four weeks [09:59] that the second person
