Transcript [00:00] Hello and good evening from Israel and [00:02] welcome to another Israel Insider with [00:04] me Ashley Perry, advisor to the Middle [00:06] East forum Israel office. As usual, I'll [00:10] be speaking for 15 to 20 minutes and [00:13] then I will leave uh it open for [00:15] questions. As always, please put your [00:18] questions in the Q&A box at the bottom [00:21] of the screen, not in the chat box. [00:23] Every week someone puts in the chat box [00:24] and I don't get to it because I don't [00:27] open the chat box. I only open the Q&A [00:30] uh box. So, please put questions there. [00:32] You can put now uh towards the end of my [00:34] remarks, during the question and answer [00:37] session whenever you like before the [00:39] end. And I will try and get to as many [00:42] questions as possible. [clears throat] [00:45] Well, we're going to start um with uh a [00:48] major event that was not completely [00:50] unexpected uh from Israel's point of [00:52] view, and that was the UK, which was [00:56] then followed by uh something like a [00:59] dozen other countries uh officially um [01:02] laid out a sanctions sanctions regime [01:06] against uh uh the settlements against um [01:11] settlement goods that are now going to [01:13] be illegal to enter the UK. Um, and [01:18] companies, individuals who provide [01:20] services uh to the settlements could [01:23] also be sanctioned. This is something [01:25] that the UK government has threatened to [01:28] do um for for a little time. And uh [01:33] finally this week uh they uh announced I [01:37] wouldn't say they implemented, they [01:38] announced it. And now apparently over [01:41] the next few months they're going to be [01:42] working out exactly how to implement it, [01:44] how to activate it. And according to [01:46] sources they will the implementation [01:50] will depend on the behavior uh as they [01:54] put it of the Israeli government current [01:56] and future. [01:58] Um so we'll have to see exactly what [02:01] that looks like. Apparently there is a [02:05] is an array of sanctions that could be [02:07] added to this. At the moment we just [02:09] have the headlines and apparently um a [02:12] bunch of bodies and organizations in the [02:15] UK are going to be working exactly how [02:17] that's going to be implemented but we [02:19] understand the general theme. Um the [02:23] question that uh many are asking is why [02:27] now? Um, first of all, you know, anyone [02:31] from the most junior cadet in Israel's [02:34] foreign ministry understands that these [02:36] things are largely down to local [02:39] domestic politics. They're about trying [02:42] to pick up uh some support. If you look [02:45] at many of the countries that enacted [02:47] this policy this week, it was enacted by [02:51] uh governments with flailing uh [02:53] popularity. If we think of Spain, if we [02:55] think of France, even the UK, although [02:59] um we have seen with the um [03:02] the the beginning of the new British uh [03:05] Prime Minister Andy Bernham, there has [03:07] been a bit of a peak in the polls for [03:09] Labor, it was really uh doing extremely [03:13] poorly. And over the last few weeks, uh [03:16] there is a bit of a peak and they're [03:17] they're trying to get as much momentum [03:19] as possible. uh while they don't have [03:22] any general elections on the horizon [03:24] there's all talk of maybe if they get to [03:26] a certain point there could be snap [03:28] elections whatever the and I've also [03:30] heard that there might be local [03:32] elections on the offing so what they're [03:34] trying to do is trying to you know [03:37] Israel is always an easy win there are a [03:40] lot of people in Europe and beyond [03:43] Canada even the US Australia [03:46] um obviously the US didn't get involved [03:48] in this but some of the other countries [03:50] did that basically, as they put it, Gaza [03:52] was on the ballot. In other words, um [03:55] the Israel issue, the Israel Palestinian [03:57] issue is at the forefront of many [03:59] voters, not just Muslims, but also [04:02] far-left. Um and to take action against [04:05] Israel wins you some votes. Uh we'll [04:08] talk about Israel's reaction a little [04:09] bit, but it's an easy win. They're not [04:12] going to do it against Turkey, for [04:14] example, which is occupying territory in [04:17] at least three countries. Um and you [04:20] know don't need me to go into some of [04:22] the actions taken by the Turkish [04:24] government against minorities in its own [04:26] country and minorities in other [04:27] countries. Um but of course we will not [04:30] see anything even slightly similar [04:31] against them. So I could go on a host of [04:34] countries a host of conflicts [04:36] occupations [04:37] um border conflicts which just simply [04:41] the UK government wouldn't even think [04:42] about u touching. So this is an easy [04:46] win. It is all down to local domestic uh [04:49] politics. Um [04:52] and uh really what the the timing is [04:56] also a little bit suspicious because the [04:59] question would be if you really want to, [05:02] you know, have an effect on the Israeli [05:05] government. Why would you do it six [05:07] weeks before elections, general [05:09] elections as we're having in Israel on [05:11] October 27th? [05:14] um why not wait to see what the next [05:16] government will look like? I mean it is [05:18] almost an absolute certainty that the [05:21] current government the current makeup of [05:23] the the government which is described by [05:26] themselves as the most right-wing [05:28] government in history is almost [05:30] certainly never rule anything out and [05:32] we'll talk about the domestic politics a [05:34] little bit later but it's almost [05:36] certainly not going to be the same [05:38] consolation. So why not wait? Um [05:40] [clears throat] what is clear as as well [05:42] as it's about domestic politics is the [05:45] UK government was clearly looking for a [05:47] fight. Um to do this now in an election [05:51] campaign season where it's obvious a [05:53] right-wing government cannot back down. [05:56] Uh they were going to react and probably [05:58] there'll be a reaction to a reaction and [06:00] and who knows where you know it will it [06:04] will continue uh deteriorating from [06:06] there. Um, as I said, the the the [06:11] Israeli government took a series of [06:13] measures uh in retaliation. Um they've [06:18] um ordered the uh UK uh consulate in [06:22] Jerusalem which is a long-standing [06:23] consulate which while it is sitting [06:26] within the municipal boundaries of [06:27] Jerusalem and thus um uh sovereign uh [06:31] Israel it really just looks after the [06:33] Palestinians on the whole not just but [06:37] mostly that's it's in charge of uh you [06:39] know Judea and Samaria the West Bank and [06:41] Gaza and East Jerusalem. Um they've [06:45] ordered that to be closed and the pe and [06:47] the um diplomats to leave within 30 [06:50] days. They've also uh put out a list of [06:53] 11 British MPs which will not be allowed [06:56] to uh visit Israel. These are mostly [06:59] extremely hostile uh members of [07:02] parliament to Israel. Um they've also um [07:07] uh removed uh or the call for the [07:09] removal I think within 10 days of uh uh [07:13] British representatives from the Gaza [07:15] Coordination Center, that center that's [07:18] put together by the Board of Peace to [07:20] monitor what's going on uh in Gaza to [07:23] work with the two parties to try and [07:25] move forward on the uh implementation [07:28] plan by President uh Trump. And finally, [07:32] um, that the British will no longer be [07:34] able to help train, uh, Palestinian [07:37] Authority policemen, which has been a [07:38] long-standing, uh, job of, uh, some [07:41] British forces. Um, so there's there's a [07:44] bit of a rash of reaction and probably [07:47] there'll be a reaction to that. Again, I [07:50] I think it's clear that the Brits wanted [07:52] a fight. If not, why not just wait to [07:54] see what the next government does? try [07:56] and see if there can be a more [07:58] diplomatic way to send a similar [08:01] message. Um, yes, there has been [08:03] undoubtedly an uptick in uh settler [08:06] violence in Israelis in Judea and [08:09] Samaria uh West Bank against uh [08:13] Palestinians. Some of it, [08:16] you know, we can argue who started it, [08:18] but clearly, you know, regardless of all [08:21] other issues, there has been an uptick. [08:24] And it's something which even this you [08:26] know right-wing government has been [08:29] trying to deal with but it's very [08:30] difficult. We are we are talking about [08:33] at most a few hundred uh individuals in [08:36] a settler wider settler population of [08:38] half a million. So we're we're not even [08:40] talking about a percentage of the [08:42] population. So this isn't really against [08:45] those radicals. It's not really against [08:47] the government itself. It's trying to [08:49] score political points. is trying to [08:51] start a fight to burnish its credentials [08:53] at home and that's clear to everybody uh [08:56] in Israel. So I have to see how far this [08:59] rhetoric between the two countries goes [09:01] because these are arguably the strongest [09:06] official steps taken by Western friendly [09:10] government um against Israel [09:13] um in in in a very long time. So we'll [09:17] have to see exactly what happens. More [09:19] disturbingly for Israel is the silence [09:22] of the US. Um it is it has been reported [09:26] that um uh the British prime minister uh [09:29] did express his intention to do this in [09:32] a call with US President Donald Trump. [09:34] This is what's being reported and Donald [09:38] Trump himself did not uh express [09:40] opposition to this and even accepted [09:43] some of the criticisms uh against [09:45] Israeli uh government policy. that will [09:48] certainly worry uh Jerusalem far more [09:51] than the actions taken by Britain and [09:53] some of the other countries. Um and it's [09:55] clear that uh uh whether it's President [09:58] Trump or others in the administration, [10:00] they are certainly not particularly [10:03] happy with this government. And the uh [10:05] the support or let's say the [10:07] long-standing support uh that Netanyahu [10:10] was hoping for uh from uh President [10:13] Trump really does not uh seem to be [10:15] coming uh any uh time soon. Um it was [10:19] just reported just before I came uh you [10:22] know uh we started this that President [10:25] Trump made very interesting remarks [10:27] conceding that the price of oil will not [10:29] go down until after the midterms when I [10:33] quote unquote if I'm getting it correct [10:36] uh the war will end with uh Iran. Um now [10:41] whether that means that the war will end [10:43] because they'll take military steps as [10:46] many have suggested including myself [10:48] that once the midterms are over they the [10:51] Americans will feel more free uh to to [10:54] militarily attack uh America or the [10:58] suggestion uh seems to possibly be that [11:02] the the longer these economic measures [11:05] siege against Iran continues uh the [11:08] closer it will come to collapse and [11:09] they'll have to give in and uh Americans [11:12] will get what they want or as some are [11:15] suggesting and certainly in intelligence [11:17] and security circles in Israel that we [11:20] might even be getting closer to the [11:22] collapse of the regime at some point by [11:24] the end of the year. Either way, these [11:25] are very interesting remarks. First of [11:27] all, a concession that the price of oil [11:31] will not go down before the midterms and [11:33] the war itself will probably end after [11:36] the midterms themselves. Another big [11:38] issue that um has caused a lot of [11:41] attention, caught a lot of attention in [11:43] Israel is this assertion in the Israeli [11:46] newspaper Harets. Let's not forget [11:48] Harets is a far-left uh newspaper which [11:51] is not particularly popular in Israel. [11:53] Has a very very small market share but [11:56] is widely read around the world. It is [11:58] the paper of choice of diplomats of uh [12:01] international media decision makers, [12:03] opinion shapers around the world. So it [12:05] has an outside influence around the [12:07] world. came out with uh quite a um a a a [12:12] shock headline which was that uh [12:14] apparently it's from a book that soon to [12:16] be released that NBZ the leader of the [12:19] UAE called Netanyao 10 days before [12:23] October uh uh uh the October massacre um [12:28] in 2023 and told him that Yah Sinoir is [12:33] um uh you know planning something very [12:36] big. uh maybe not the exact details of [12:39] what happened um but certainly warning [12:42] him that Hamas are planning something [12:44] extremely big and uh the prime minister [12:47] according to these reports didn't take [12:49] it seriously didn't even really inform [12:52] that people needed to be um informed and [12:55] uh one can imagine that you know these [12:58] reports could be very damaging now what [13:01] the truth is we don't know obviously uh [13:03] NetO put out uh a press police calling [13:07] it a complete lie saying the National [13:09] Security Council, the Shinbet and [13:11] everybody looked through his call logs [13:14] and basically said that there were no [13:16] such calls um in the months before [13:20] uh the the massacre with MBZ. Obviously, [13:24] you know, no one actually sees those [13:26] recorded calls and according to former [13:28] defense minister Yand who was defense [13:30] minister at the time said it's very easy [13:33] to hide these things anyway. He's he he [13:35] said he doesn't know anything about this [13:37] particular alleged call but he he knows [13:39] that there were many many calls which [13:41] were not officially logged. He didn't [13:43] know about it etc etc. Um I should say [13:47] that uh according to these reports also [13:49] President Herzog received a similar [13:51] call. President Herzog's uh office [13:54] denied it denied that that is what [13:57] happened. Interestingly, the UAE itself [14:01] put out a response without a firm [14:04] denial. It was clear that there was [14:07] [snorts] not going to be the sort of uh [14:09] the firm denial that we saw from uh [14:13] Netanya or even Herzog's office. Um [14:16] while the prime minister really tried to [14:19] put or his office tried to put as much [14:20] pressure on the UAE to come out with a [14:22] firm denial, they clearly did not want [14:25] to. uh if you look at the statement it [14:28] does not even really address the issue [14:30] head on at all. Uh which leads you know [14:34] more more people to talk about it. Um we [14:38] might not know the truth as many people [14:40] say until there is an official state [14:43] commission in of inquiry which is not [14:46] happening at least before uh these [14:48] elections and we'll have to see the [14:50] makeup of the um the next government to [14:52] see whether whether there'll be one uh [14:55] after. [14:56] A major event also yesterday was the um [15:00] closing of the lists uh to compete in [15:04] the next election. There's something [15:06] over 30 parties [15:08] um officially registered for the [15:10] elections. According to the most [15:12] generous surveys, only at the most 12 [15:16] really seem to stand a chance of passing [15:18] the threshold. There weren't too many [15:21] surprises in the leadup or on the day. [15:24] uh Erdan um Gillard Erdan and Julie [15:27] Edstein who tried to uh create a list um [15:32] whose main issue was you know to try and [15:34] attract right-wing voters uh angry about [15:37] the lack of enlistment of [15:39] ultraorththodox basically wasn't getting [15:41] any closer to the threshold and bowed [15:43] out of the race completely there was a [15:46] lot of pressure uh on Benny Gance of the [15:49] blue and white party to also bow out of [15:51] the race he's also not polling anywhere [15:54] near the threshold. And in fact, most [15:56] polls show him less than 1%. Um, and [16:01] there are those who say it's a big waste [16:02] of money because while he's not [16:05] particularly popular at the moment, he [16:06] has quite a big uh share of Knesset [16:08] seats. And as we know, public um funds [16:12] are given to parties according to their [16:14] current Knesset seats. If he would have [16:16] bowed out, then that money wouldn't have [16:18] been spent, but now it it will be uh uh [16:21] spent. So uh there there were calls for [16:25] him to leave the race. Um but it seems [16:27] like he's going to be running uh towards [16:30] the end. Li could Netany specifically [16:33] had a a series of personal appointments [16:37] to the Leud lists. It was very [16:39] interesting because his first priorities [16:42] didn't accept for various of for various [16:46] um reasons. Uh the second also didn't [16:49] seem to be and only at the last minute [16:51] he was able to fill up his um reserve [16:55] spots on the list. So also speaks a [16:57] little bit to where Natino standing is [16:59] at the moment. Although some uh rejected [17:02] it because of they'd have to give up [17:03] their American passport or business ties [17:06] or or what have you. Um the interest [17:10] what's starting to be a bit of an [17:11] interesting angle in these elections [17:13] considering the ultraorththodox [17:15] enlistment issue is going to be front [17:18] and center at least it is for now [17:21] is the established uh ultraorththodox [17:23] parties shas uh seems to be suffering at [17:26] the polls that current um power is 11 [17:30] seats and they're polling around seven [17:33] um analysts have suggested that shas [17:37] receives a a lot of its support, at [17:39] least half, maybe more, maybe slightly [17:41] less from non-ultra orthodox supporters, [17:44] um, Safhadi supporters as it does, [17:46] presents itself as a Safhi party and [17:49] they are who and and these non-ultra [17:52] orthodox supporters have been deserting [17:54] uh, Shas, as the analysts suggest [17:57] because of their uncompromising position [18:00] on the enlistment law. Interestingly, [18:03] shots are trying to deal with this by [18:04] putting out videos showing that, you [18:07] know, uh, suddenly now they remember [18:09] Israeli soldiers and they're [18:11] traditional, not necessarily religious [18:13] based. Um, they're trying very, very [18:16] hard to try and attract them back. [18:17] There's been even greater drama in the [18:19] other ultra orthodox party, the [18:21] Ashkanazi ultraorththodox party, which [18:23] has always been an uneasy alliance of a [18:27] kidic wing and a non-hasidic wing, which [18:30] is ostensibly called the Lithuanian [18:32] wing. The Lithuanian wing replaced its [18:36] leadership, Mosha Gaffne, who is one of [18:38] the longest standing u ultraorththodox [18:41] politicians. In fact, any Israeli [18:43] politician having served for I think [18:45] almost or around four decades was [18:47] replaced uh and also a couple of others. [18:51] Um they're trying to get in new [18:54] leadership. There's uh discussion [18:56] whether it means a more hardline or not. [18:59] It seems to be with that it's new leader [19:01] Yakov Asher who is more hardline. It [19:03] seems um there. So they also understand [19:07] that they are having a bit of a problem [19:09] and they need a bit of refreshing. [19:11] Uh but even more even more drama the [19:15] kidic wing basically split into two. So [19:18] you had two parties that now become [19:20] three parties within the main party [19:22] because some of the kiddic groups [19:24] disagreed with others. So they basically [19:26] are now three parties in one and it's a [19:30] bit of a mess. Um the ultra orthodox uh [19:34] world is certainly seeing for the first [19:37] time cracks and creeks within within [19:40] that and there is even a for the first [19:42] time a viable perhaps depending who you [19:45] ask um [19:48] a a third orthodox ultraorththodox party [19:51] that's trying to be a more liberal [19:53] version uh basically [clears throat] [19:55] saying that if you're not learning [19:56] full-time you should serve uh in the IDF [19:59] which is a departure for the other two [20:01] parties are saying they're saying that [20:03] they want uh a general education in uh [20:07] [clears throat] ultraorththodox [20:08] educational institutions they want a [20:11] pathway to a better chance of being able [20:13] to have a profession etc etc so it is [20:16] shaking things up a little bit that is a [20:18] very important and interesting uh [20:22] element to watch uh ahead of the [20:24] elections but otherwise the blocks [20:26] aren't really changing netting is still [20:29] hovering around the low50s is [20:31] interestingly enough analysis an [20:33] analysis tonight said that while Netao [20:37] of the 12 seats he's lost from his [20:39] current power to how he's doing in the [20:42] polls six moved over to the other block [20:46] and six at the moment are staying at [20:48] home this is uh a very interesting [20:50] analysis we'll have to see whether that [20:53] six still stays at home at the moment um [20:56] it's very easy to say I'm not voting but [20:58] as elections come usually more and more [21:00] people vote. Israel usually has a very [21:03] high voting percentage. So it wouldn't [21:06] surprise me if you know not all of that [21:08] six gets out and vote but a significant [21:11] part whether they will vote for Netany [21:14] whether they will switch over could be [21:16] key. If he could get a a substantial uh [21:19] percentage of um that vote back into the [21:22] liquid, it could change things in so [21:25] much as uh not allowing the opposition [21:28] block any chance of getting that 61 even [21:31] perhaps uh with the support of the armed [21:34] party which itself is in trouble since [21:36] it added a Jewish Israeli to its list. [21:40] It's now hovering above the threshold. [21:42] Um and if that goes under then really [21:45] probably any chance of a coalition with [21:48] the current opposition even relying even [21:51] attempting to rely on uh Ram will be um [21:55] extinguished. So we'll have to keep an [21:57] eye on those things. Very interesting uh [22:00] days ahead with that and we're going to [22:01] go to questions. [22:04] Uh Carrie Hillbran asks, "How do you see [22:05] the revelation birates that the UAE [22:07] allegedly warned Netanyah that kamasled [22:09] invasion was imminent impacting on the [22:12] upcoming elections?" Well, depends what [22:14] you believe. If you're uh a supporter of [22:17] the current government, especially if [22:19] you're a supporter of Netanyahu, you'll [22:20] see it as just another attempt from the [22:23] left to discredit him. As we've seen [22:25] recently, Netanyahu has really tried to [22:28] push the agenda. If only they would have [22:30] woken me up, things would have been [22:32] different and basically blaming the [22:34] intelligence, the army, the IDF, [22:36] everyone except him. Interestingly [22:38] enough, when he released his itinerary [22:42] of that morning, it shows that he didn't [22:44] even have a first briefing with the head [22:47] of the IDF until 3 or 4 hours later. So [22:50] even the evidence that he tried to push [22:52] out to show that he wasn't uh warned in [22:56] time and he took other measures leaves a [22:59] big gap and a lot of his uh opponents [23:01] are trying to say well what did you do [23:03] for those three or four hours people [23:05] were dying in those three or four hours [23:07] people were being kidnapped you know [23:09] communities were being overrun you took [23:11] your time even getting to the uh defense [23:14] ministry to the situation room etc etc [23:18] so It it will be a question uh coming up [23:22] especially as we um commemorate October [23:25] 7th uh once again you know in the coming [23:28] weeks. Um [23:30] um but at the moment it's probably [23:32] split. If you're a supporter of the [23:34] government, you won't believe this and [23:36] you'll believe that this is just a [23:38] madeup fake news by the left. And if [23:41] you're an opponent, it will just be one [23:43] more piece of evidence to show that [23:45] Netanyahu failed and allowed the [23:48] massacre to happen. Um, [23:52] Jose Montter blaming some European [23:54] nations in your opinion could have some [23:56] internal political problems. Um, [24:00] could anybody consider that what the [24:02] settlers are doing and territory does [24:05] not belong to Israel is wrong? They [24:06] really affect Israel's reputation. other [24:08] countries. I'm not saying um that I I [24:12] made it clear that there is settler [24:14] violence. There's been an uptick in [24:16] settler violence. Uh and certainly that [24:19] is uh cause for concern and some nations [24:22] have taken uh specific actions against [24:26] uh those extremist uh settlers. But as I [24:30] said, I don't see [24:33] there there's no more than a few hundred [24:35] of them. And that's uh out of a larger [24:38] uh settler population of around half a [24:41] million. So the question is why are you [24:43] targeting half a million people for the [24:46] actions of few hundred? I could give you [24:48] countless examples of places and [24:51] communities where there are extremists [24:53] but that doesn't necessar shouldn't [24:54] necessarily tarnish uh the whole [24:57] population. It's clear that this is not [24:59] really about the uptick in settler [25:00] violence. Um one could argue that the [25:03] Israeli army is stretched. It's got, you [25:06] know, it's frontline combat soldiers in [25:09] Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, manning the [25:12] borders, the Jordan, Egypt. It just [25:15] doesn't have the manpower to take on um [25:18] this problem, which really is it's it's, [25:21] you know, the Judea and Samaria is a [25:23] small territory, but it's also a big [25:24] territory and uh it just doesn't it [25:27] simply doesn't have the manpower. Could [25:29] the government be doing more? [25:30] Absolutely. Is this really about the [25:33] uptick in settler violence? I don't [25:35] think so. Um, Rashelle Mand asked, "Why [25:39] can't Israel explain that area A is [25:41] totally under the supervision of Israel [25:43] and it's legal to build in that area?" [25:46] Um, I'm not quite sure what the question [25:48] is getting. Area A, according to Oslo [25:51] Accords, is uh under uh Palestinian [25:55] civilian and uh uh military control. [26:00] Although Israel certainly when there's [26:02] uh when there's a large wave of [26:04] terrorism does enter Area A more [26:06] frequently um to try and prevent uh [26:09] terror attacks. Um it's not going to [26:12] allow Israelis to build in area A. [26:14] That's something which hasn't done even [26:17] under this government which has expanded [26:20] settlements which has built uh some new [26:23] settlements. Again, we're talking about, [26:26] you know, tiny percentages, but still, [26:28] um, there's been no, uh, building in [26:31] area A, and it's certainly it's not [26:33] going, if it didn't happen under this [26:34] government, it's not going to happen [26:36] under, uh, any future, uh, government. [26:40] Um, Georgius Pilios asked does the [26:42] reaction from Erdwan, Turkish officials [26:45] and press regarding the agreement [26:46] between Greece and Israel uh of Achilles [26:49] shield that's a new agreement between [26:51] Greece and uh Israel security agreement [26:54] stem from the fear that their illegal [26:55] activities would be monitored by the two [26:58] countries in the Aian and the Eastern [26:59] Mediterranean. Well, obviously the Turks [27:01] are very worried about what's going on [27:03] between not just Israel and Greece but [27:05] also Israel, Greece and Cyprus and [27:07] Israel and Cyprus. Um over the last uh [27:12] uh you know few decades especially with [27:14] the rise of Erdogan and uh his Islamist [27:18] party um there has been closer relation [27:21] uh between Israel and its eastern [27:23] Mediterranean allies. That's certainly [27:26] cause of constonation uh by President [27:28] Erdogan. Uh and uh I'm sure uh that the [27:33] um the signing of the Achilles shield [27:35] agreement between Greece and Israel is [27:38] probably just ratcheted up another [27:40] level. So it's not surprising that [27:41] Erdogan and other Turkish uh officials, [27:45] government officials will be extremely [27:46] antagonistic towards this. Uh they see [27:49] the um Eastern Mediterranean very much [27:51] as their backyard and um it's it's [27:55] certainly going to uh bother the Turks a [27:58] lot. [27:59] Um, Jack Wesserman asks, "Is the Oz [28:02] party in up running?" Um, I'm not 100% [28:05] sure. I didn't see [28:08] um I didn't see um she she's not passing [28:12] the threshold. She's a long way away. [28:14] There was talk of her joining maybe with [28:17] other parties that also weren't going to [28:19] cross the threshold. I didn't see any um [28:23] uh any notice of it, so I'm not sure, [28:26] but it doesn't seem like she has too [28:29] much of a a chance. Um na, one final [28:32] question. Nancy Zuka asks, "Is it most [28:34] of the settler violence reactive to Arab [28:36] attacks?" I don't know about most. Some [28:39] of it absolutely is. Uh but some of it, [28:42] it seems that it's preemptive that they [28:45] are going on the attack. uh some of the [28:48] scenes um that have happened over uh the [28:51] last few weeks certainly um are [28:54] relatively unprecedented, you know, [28:56] making a siege on an Arab town. It's [28:59] very hard um to see if that's going to [29:02] be a reaction to an Arab uh attack. [29:05] Certainly, there seems to be an uptick [29:07] in violence by Israelis, by settlers um [29:12] over the green line. Um, a lot of yes, [29:15] some of it absolutely is uh in reaction [29:18] to Arab attacks and obviously we know if [29:21] you've ever read the report uh by the UN [29:24] of what constitutes settler attacks and [29:26] I think we've talked about this in the [29:27] past, anything from visiting the Temple [29:30] Mount, a a bus of kids going to visit [29:33] Shilo, uh a traffic accident between an [29:37] Israeli Palestinian, [29:39] all sorts of things which are absolutely [29:41] nothing to do with settler settle lers [29:43] or settler violence has been documented [29:46] as settler violence. Uh in fact [29:49] according to the recent Ota report over [29:51] 90 if you go through it and you pass it [29:53] you can see 90% of what is considered [29:56] settler violence is not settler violence [29:58] but that being said it is clear that [30:00] there is an uptick and it is um [30:03] happening more frequently and it is uh [30:06] to be condemned. One can argue whether [30:08] there's a will or way by this Israeli [30:11] government. That's a fair question [30:13] before the elections with all the IDF [30:15] busy elsewhere but certainly there has [30:17] been an uptick uh in the violence itself [30:21] and with that I'd like to thank you for [30:23] your questions and your participation [30:24] and I look forward to seeing you next [30:26] week to those who are celebrating [30:29] wishing you a shout out to it's the [30:30] Jewish new year on uh Saturday and [30:33] Sunday and looking forward to seeing you [30:35] next week.
