Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, something happened in [00:02] Tehran today that I think is [00:05] an important moment, a revealing moment [00:07] in this whole war. And I want to show it [00:10] to you through the eyes of the Iranian [00:12] regime. That's right. For those of you [00:14] who have been watching my channel for a [00:15] while, we do this all the time. We're [00:16] going to be reading some Iranian regime [00:19] media in this video. [00:22] Um here's what happened though. Saudi [00:24] Arabia's defense minister, Pakistan's [00:26] army chief Munir, and Turkey's chief of [00:29] intelligence all landed together in [00:32] Tehran today. All three of them at the [00:35] same time. [00:37] And these are the three countries of the [00:39] Mecca defense pact, the alliance that [00:41] was supposed to protect Saudi Arabia [00:43] from the Houthis. [00:45] And instead of fighting the Houthis, as [00:47] we've documented extensively, they [00:50] you know, the Pakistanis and the Turks [00:51] ever since, you know, Saudi Arabia [00:53] turned to them a little while ago and [00:54] was like, "Hey, we're getting attacked. [00:56] We have this defense pact. An attack on [00:58] one is an attack on all of us. Where are [00:59] you guys?" They've been avoiding it. So, [01:02] now the representatives of the of this [01:05] Mecca defense pact all flew to Tehran [01:07] for a meeting together with the [01:09] Iranians. And now we're going to read [01:11] how Iranian regime media is covering [01:14] this meeting. And I'm going to do what I [01:16] usually do. I'll decode it for you. [01:18] Because when you read what they say [01:19] carefully and notice what they leave [01:21] out, what they include, it tells you [01:23] exactly what game is being played here. [01:25] And it brings me back to something I've [01:26] been saying since the very first week [01:29] of this war, okay? And we'll get to that [01:32] towards the end. So, let's get right to [01:33] it. [01:34] Let's pull it up. Here we go. [01:36] What's behind the Saudi, Turkish, and [01:38] Pakistani security chiefs' visit to [01:41] Tehran? And this is from today. This is [01:44] This is a story in today. This is WANA. [01:46] The This is That stands for, by the way, [01:49] the West Asian News Agency. This is [01:51] Iranian state media. [01:52] Regular viewers are familiar with it. [01:54] It's It's Iranian regime media in [01:56] English written for foreign audiences. [01:58] Although a lot of it's just translated [02:00] from the Persian WANA site. [02:02] And it tells us how Tehran wants the [02:04] world to see things. Okay, so let's take [02:05] a look. Here's how the piece [02:07] opens. [02:09] Hold on. [02:11] >> [cough] [02:12] >> Saudi Arabia's defense minister, [02:13] Pakistan's army chief, and Turkey's [02:15] intelligence chief [02:17] are in Tehran on Monday for talks with [02:20] senior Iranian officials as regional [02:22] tensions intensify amid attacks by [02:24] Yemen's Ansar Allah movement on Saudi [02:27] Arabia and concerns over a possible [02:30] resumption of hostilities involving [02:32] Iran, the United States, and Israel. [02:35] Ansar Allah is what the Houthis call [02:37] themselves. Iranian media uses the name [02:40] the Houthis prefer and it presents them [02:42] as a Yemeni movement, of course, not a [02:43] proxy. They're not going to say that [02:45] they're a proxy. [02:46] Nothing to do with them. Just a Yemeni [02:48] movement that has happens to be [02:49] attacking Saudi Arabia. [02:51] Okay. According to information obtained [02:53] by WANA's reporter, the delegation is [02:56] also scheduled to meet Iranian President [02:58] Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohsen Rezaee, [03:01] secretary of Iran's Supreme National [03:02] Security Council. The meetings highlight [03:05] the significance of Tehran's security [03:07] consultations with the three countries [03:09] participating in the Mecca pact. I'll [03:10] also point out that Munir, the army [03:13] chief from Pakistan who's there today, [03:15] was also there last week meeting with [03:17] Mohsen Rezaee ostensibly to try to get [03:19] him to agree to some of the American [03:21] demands and give up his nuclear material [03:23] and he refused to. That'll come up again [03:26] a little bit later in our conversation. [03:29] Okay, so you hear the framing here. [03:31] Um [03:34] Uh [03:35] You see what you see what's being said [03:37] here. [03:39] Let me explain. [03:41] It doesn't say anything It doesn't say [03:43] that they're coming to complain about [03:45] the Houthis, right? They're coming to [03:46] consult with Iran about regional [03:49] security. Iran is the host and the [03:51] senior partner. [03:52] It's the address, right? Meaning [03:55] uh and let's remember Iran also offered [03:57] to mediate between Saudi Arabia and the [03:59] Houthis a couple weeks ago, which was [04:00] laughable. [04:02] Let's keep going. [04:04] Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman [04:05] Esmaeil Baghaei said the initiative for [04:08] the meeting came from Asim Munir. That's [04:10] the Pakistani Army Chief. [04:12] And that Tehran agreed to the visit [04:14] after reviewing the proposal. Saudi [04:16] officials have described the talks as [04:18] part of ongoing efforts to reduce [04:20] tensions, encourage dialogue, and [04:22] promote diplomatic solutions. [04:26] Okay, the initiative came from Asim [04:28] Munir. [04:29] Um and Tehran agreed to the visit, [04:31] right? Think about how that sounds. They [04:33] asked to come. [04:34] They asked to come. We reviewed their [04:36] request. We graciously agreed, right? [04:38] That it it's uh it this is meant this [04:41] sentence is written to to make Iran look [04:44] like the power that everyone else is [04:45] coming to to, you know, to work with on [04:48] a regional security. But here's the [04:50] paragraph that I really want you to see. [04:52] Here's the here's a much more important [04:53] paragraph here. [04:55] The Yemen conflict is one issue that [04:57] could feature prominently in the talks. [05:00] Intensifying attacks by Yemen's Ansar [05:02] Allah movement. They always make sure to [05:04] say it's Yemen's Ansar Allah movement. [05:05] It's not theirs. [05:07] Um intensifying attacks of by Yemen's [05:09] Ansar Allah movement on Saudi Arabia [05:11] have heightened security concerns in [05:13] Riyadh. At the same time, tensions [05:15] between Tehran and Washington, alongside [05:18] the possibility of renewed direct [05:19] hostilities, have raised concerns about [05:22] a wider regional escalation. [05:28] Sorry, just had to cough there. Okay. [05:30] So, what does all this mean? [05:34] Intensifying attacks by Yemen's Ansar [05:36] Allah movement have heightened security [05:38] concerns in Riyadh. But who's [05:40] responsible for those attacks? Right? [05:42] The uh [05:44] It it's obvious Look, we all know that [05:46] the Houthis are a proxy of Iran. Iran [05:50] could rein them in at any time. [05:53] Let's keep going. Saudi Arabia's [05:55] security calculations are closely linked [05:58] to developments in Yemen. [05:59] Attacks on Saudi territory pose direct [06:02] security threats and can also affect [06:04] uh critical infrastructure and broader [06:06] regional stability. Dialogue with Tehran [06:09] could therefore form part of Riyadh's [06:11] efforts to manage the crisis, [06:13] particularly if the objective is to [06:15] prevent the emergence of additional [06:16] fronts and limit the security and [06:18] economic costs of further confrontation. [06:23] Okay. Um dialogue with Tehran could form [06:27] part of their efforts, right? Look, if [06:29] the Houthis are just an independent [06:31] Yemeni movement, then Tehran um [06:34] could just serve as a mediator for them. [06:36] Is that what they're implying? Why would [06:38] the Saudis go to Tehran just to see if [06:40] the if the Iranians could help them out? [06:43] That's the trick, right? Iran never says [06:45] it controls the Houthis. It never says [06:47] it controls Hezbollah. It claims [06:48] Hezbollah is a is an independent [06:50] movement, even though they're entirely [06:51] funded. The head of Hezbollah is [06:52] appointed in Tehran. The Iranian [06:55] ambassador to Lebanon had a beeper that [06:58] blew up in the beeper attack. Okay, it's [07:00] Hezbollah is Iran. [07:02] Same thing with the Iraqi militias. [07:05] Right? Officially, the Houthis make [07:06] their own decisions, right? President [07:08] Pazeškián from Iran has said that, "Oh, [07:10] we have nothing to do with them." But [07:12] the entire logic of this visit only [07:14] works if Iran is the right address when [07:18] the Houthi missiles are attacking Saudi [07:20] Arabia. [07:22] So, [07:23] the article is is is playing this little [07:26] game here. [07:27] The influence is implied. Now, why do [07:29] they do it this way? Because they need [07:31] to deny that they control the Houthis [07:33] because that protects Iran from blame. [07:35] They never want to say that they control [07:37] these proxies. [07:38] If Iran admitted that that ran the [07:40] Houthis and its other proxies, then even [07:42] though they say that they have they say [07:44] that they have [07:45] you know the Quds Force and they have [07:47] their regional [07:48] they play this game where they kind of [07:49] admit that they have proxies but then [07:51] but then insist that they're independent [07:54] entities. That's what's going on here. [07:56] Right? [07:57] Um so they hint at the influence or they [08:00] say, you know, we can mediate or you [08:02] know, we're you know, they're friends of [08:04] ours. [08:05] Uh [08:06] that's the way it works. They admit [08:09] you know, if they admit that they [08:10] control them then it changes the whole [08:12] equation then then when the Houthis are [08:13] attacking Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia [08:17] you know, it it [08:18] it can say that the Iranians are [08:20] attacking them. [08:22] So they have this kind of plausible [08:24] deniability thing. They keep it blurry. [08:26] The problem for Tehran is that no one [08:28] everyone knows that it's nonsense. Here, [08:30] take a look at this piece from Al [08:32] Jazeera. [08:33] No friend of ours but uh [08:36] here we go. [08:38] Let me find this uh this passage in [08:40] here. I mean look look at the title of [08:42] it. Iran support for Houthis probed as [08:44] Yemen war re-ups [08:46] uh uh re-erupts and Saudi cities hit. [08:49] This is from last week but here just [08:50] read look at this paragraph. The Wall [08:52] Street Journal reported that Iranian [08:55] uh Iranian Mahan Air flights ferried [08:57] IRGC paramilitary officers [09:00] drone parts missile guidance systems and [09:02] impact detonators to Houthis in Yemen. [09:05] IRGC officers were also reportedly on [09:08] the front lines directing Houthi [09:10] attacks. Hello. [09:13] Directing Houthi attacks. [09:15] IRGC officers on the front lines. That's [09:17] not an independent Yemeni movement. Now [09:19] in fairness a lot of this reporting [09:20] comes from interested parties and Iran [09:23] and the Houthis deny all of it [09:25] but it's not only the Wall Street [09:26] Journal back in July Saudi backed forces [09:29] created uh or sorry um Saudi backed [09:32] forces [09:33] cratered the runway at Sana'a Airport in [09:36] Houthi territory in northwest Yemen [09:39] to stop an Iranian an Iranian Mahan Air [09:42] flight from landing. And in late [09:44] September, just last month, Yemen's army [09:47] said it killed four Iranian drone and [09:50] missile experts in Taiz. I reported on [09:52] this last week. [09:54] Iran never acknowledged any of them. [09:56] Uh look and back in July, if we if we [09:59] expand the scope when we look at the at [10:01] Iran's proxies, the axis of resistance [10:04] they call them, the Houthis themselves [10:06] confirmed that one of their commanders [10:08] was killed in an air strike in Iraq, [10:10] right? I did a video about this last [10:11] week. [10:12] Uh there were other IRGC advisers there [10:15] whose bodies were flown back to Tehran. [10:17] So, you have a Houthi commander in Iraq [10:19] with IRGC advisers. [10:22] Uh and then last week, Yemeni sources [10:24] claimed that an Iraqi militia officer [10:27] from the Popular Mobilization Forces, [10:29] which are backed by Iran and meaning [10:31] he's in a he's the he was an officer [10:33] from an Iraqi militia backed by Iran [10:36] named Ahmad al-Lami was killed in Yemen [10:39] fighting alongside the Houthis. [10:44] Okay, so [10:47] the Houthis in Iraq Iraq Iraqis in [10:49] Yemen, the IRGC officers around all the [10:52] time. These are not [10:55] Iran wants to project that the different [10:57] movements are kind of supported by them [10:59] and allies of theirs, but not that they [11:02] control them. But when we But all of [11:04] these news items, you see that no, [11:07] they're actually one fighting force. And [11:09] they And the And the officers and the [11:12] the technical people, they share them, [11:13] they move around. [11:16] It's one [11:18] it's one group. Everyone knows that. [11:20] Um [11:21] Now, here's another detail in the Al [11:22] Jazeera piece. Check this one out. [11:25] The spokesperson for the for the [11:27] Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen's [11:29] government, Major General Turki [11:32] al-Maliki, confirmed the presence of an [11:33] external state actor behind the Houthis [11:37] evolving arsenal, but did not mention [11:39] the state in question. [11:43] You know, the Saudis won't even say the [11:45] word Iran. That's part of what's also [11:48] disjointed about all this. Everyone [11:49] knows that the Houthis are Iran, but the [11:52] Saudis refuse to treat it that way. [11:57] Right? They're always playing these [11:58] games. [11:59] The coalition spokesman confirms there's [12:02] a foreign state behind the Houthi [12:03] arsenal, but he won't say the word Iran [12:05] because the Saudi defense minister is [12:08] you know, he he wants to keep up his [12:09] relationship. He's going to fly to [12:11] Tehran and talk to them about it. [12:14] Okay, let's go back to Wana. Let's go [12:16] back to the Wana story. [12:17] We'll pick it up where we left off. [12:20] >> [snorts] [12:20] >> Um [12:22] This is this is where in the article [12:24] Iran [12:25] uh you know, tells you what it actually [12:27] wants out of this whole situation. Here, [12:29] let's find it. [12:32] Bagaei, that's the foreign ministry [12:33] spokesman, described security [12:35] cooperation among regional countries as [12:37] an approach that Iran has advocated for [12:39] decades. And according to Iran, this [12:41] meeting is just about coordinating [12:43] security with all these with all these [12:45] countries. Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi [12:46] Arabia, and and Iran are going to [12:48] coordinate security. [12:50] Quote, "It is a positive development for [12:51] regional countries to pursue security [12:53] cooperation based on interaction and [12:55] endogenous security," he said. He also [12:58] stressed that lasting security and [12:59] stability in the region can only be [13:02] achieved through cooperation among [13:04] regional countries. [13:08] So, endogenous security, by the way, [13:09] that's a phrase you hear from Tehran. [13:11] Endogenous means from within, right? [13:13] Security of the region by the region, [13:15] sounds nice. Who could be against [13:17] countries cooperating? But Wana tells [13:19] you exactly what it means in the very [13:21] next paragraph. [13:25] The remarks reflect [13:26] the framework within which Tehran seeks [13:29] to advance the discussions, establishing [13:31] security agreements led by regional [13:33] countries rather than relying primarily [13:36] on outside powers. Outside powers. [13:40] Outside powers. [13:41] Who's the outside power? There's only [13:43] one outside power with bases in Saudi [13:45] Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, the [13:47] neighboring countries. Endogenous [13:49] security in this article means get the [13:52] Americans out of the Gulf and let the [13:54] biggest regional power, Iran, set the [13:56] terms. Iran's been pushing this for [13:58] decades and and and so today you have [14:01] these three countries that are that have [14:04] significant partnership with America, [14:06] Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, flying [14:08] to Tehran to talk about regional [14:09] security and the Iranians are framing it [14:12] as as an effort to get rid of the [14:14] Americans. Okay? That's how they're [14:17] framing this thing. [14:18] Uh let's keep going though with this [14:20] piece. For Iran, hosting senior [14:22] officials from the three countries [14:24] provides an opportunity to advance its [14:25] vision of regional security. For Saudi [14:28] Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, the [14:29] consultations offer a chance to discuss [14:32] current threats and explore ways to [14:34] prevent further escalation. [14:38] Lovely. [14:39] That's the regime telling you in its own [14:40] words what it's getting out of the [14:42] meeting. And then, to its credit, WANA [14:44] admits something. [14:47] Yeah, where is this? Uh it's it's back [14:49] up here, actually. [14:51] However, there is not yet sufficient [14:53] information to conclude that the meeting [14:55] was specifically intended to mediate [14:57] between Tehran and Washington. You see, [14:59] the rest of the world is reporting on [15:01] this meeting that it's part of a [15:02] mediation effort. Okay? That's That's [15:05] how everyone else is describing it. But [15:08] in the in Iranian state media, they are [15:10] basically denying that that is what this [15:13] meeting's all about. [15:16] Okay? Tehran does not want the meeting [15:18] to look like mediation with Washington. [15:20] It wants it to look like these regional [15:22] powers are coming to Iran on their own, [15:26] you know, and it not that they're [15:28] carrying messages from America. [15:31] Okay? Now, look at this other WANA item, [15:33] and this is from yesterday. What I've [15:35] been reading to you from now is from [15:36] today, but this is from yesterday. [15:38] Qatari government aircraft lands in [15:40] Tehran amid mediation efforts. Huh? Look [15:44] at that. So, Iranian state media is [15:46] getting its information about Well, let [15:49] me Let me read the Let me read you what [15:51] it says in the piece. [15:54] According to data published by the [15:55] flight tracking account Mensch Osint an [16:00] Airbus operated by Qatar Amiri Flight [16:04] the Qatari government's official VIP [16:06] aviation service landed in Tehran [16:08] moments ago. Right? They're claiming [16:10] that they they only found out about this [16:12] by [16:14] because [clears throat] of some because [16:16] of some flight tracking [16:18] data agency. Like, this is Iranian state [16:20] media. They know if the Qataris are [16:22] landing there. The developments come [16:24] after the recent visit to Tehran by [16:26] Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir. [16:29] Earlier reports also indicated that a [16:31] Qatari aircraft flew to Tehran [16:34] following Munir's visit, but returned to [16:36] Qatar less than half an hour after [16:38] arriving in the Iranian capital. Iranian [16:40] and Qatari officials have not yet [16:41] released details about the mission of [16:43] the latest aircraft or whether its [16:45] arrival is linked to ongoing regional [16:47] diplomatic efforts. So, the Pakistani [16:49] army chief was there last week. [16:51] Then the Qatari guy comes, then the [16:53] Pakistani guy comes back with the Saudis [16:55] and the Turks. A lot of flurry of [16:57] activity going on now, as you can see. [17:00] Okay. [17:01] Um [17:03] Reuters reported that the Qatari [17:05] mediators in Tehran on Sunday, that's [17:07] yesterday, were there in an effort [17:09] coordinated with the United States. Of [17:11] course, WANA is not going to say [17:12] anything like that, and that's why [17:13] they're they're not even they're They're [17:15] any knowledge of what this meeting is [17:16] about at all. [17:17] Um [17:19] So, you have Qatar yesterday, the Mecca [17:21] Pact countries today. [17:25] That's my point. [17:26] There's a flurry of diplomatic activity [17:29] going on right now. Multiple Pakistani [17:31] visits, Qatar yesterday, [17:33] these three countries today. [17:35] And and the Saudis themselves said that [17:38] they're there to support the Qatari and [17:40] Pakistani mediation efforts. Okay, this [17:42] is a coordinated push. And Washington is [17:45] probably in the loop. They're certainly [17:47] in the loop. We don't know if they're [17:49] behind it or just agreeing to it. Iran [17:52] won't say so because they're not They're [17:54] claiming it's not about that at all. [17:57] Um before we go on, let me just uh [17:58] remind you to uh [18:00] to click the link in the description of [18:01] this video so that you can get a hold of [18:04] the new book that we've just put out, [18:06] the Pro-Israel Handbook, Winning Facts [18:08] Against Pro-Palestinian Progressives, [18:10] written by Matan Peleg. A great little [18:12] handbook. It has all the the key [18:15] historical information, the key [18:17] arguments to push back against the most [18:21] common lies and and um [18:24] and uh and accusations and false [18:26] accusations about Israel. So, uh when [18:29] you're in those conversations and you [18:30] want to have the right data, the right [18:32] information at your fingertips, how to [18:34] win those arguments, you want to get a [18:36] hold of the Pro-Israel Handbook. Very [18:37] user-friendly book. It's a small book. [18:40] Uh click the link in the description of [18:41] this video and use the promo code that's [18:44] listed there. Promo code handbook15 to [18:46] get a 15% discount. You You'll need this [18:49] book. All right. Let's get back to um [18:52] to the one a piece that we're dealing [18:53] with here. [18:55] Um so, why is this Mecca Pact in Tehran [18:57] at all? Why are they there? This is you [18:59] know, it's supposed to be a mutual [19:01] defense pact. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, [19:03] Pakistan signed it in August, right? An [19:05] attack on one is an attack on all of us. [19:08] Saudi Arabia meanwhile is being hit by [19:09] Houthi missiles every day. [19:11] And on October 6th with great fanfare, [19:14] the Turks and the Pakistanis said that [19:16] they would deploy forces to the [19:18] to the kingdom, but just for defensive [19:20] purposes. [19:22] Look but look at the fine print of their [19:23] agreement. Here, look at this. This is [19:25] from uh [19:26] Where is it? Oh, I didn't pull this up. [19:28] Okay. There's a There's a news item from [19:30] an outlet called Deseret. [19:33] Um Deseret News. Here, let me find uh [19:36] Well, I'm just going to quote from it. [19:38] And and they covered the They covered [19:41] the uh the Mecca Pact. And they have [19:43] some quotes in there. [19:45] Um you know, about and and basically [19:47] what they say is you know, these quotes [19:50] basically say that the um [19:53] that the [19:56] that the pact is really only [19:58] Here, let me get it. Here it is. [20:01] Let's pull it up. [20:03] Here. There we go. [20:05] >> [snorts] [20:05] >> So, yeah, I highlighted them and then I [20:06] didn't have the link. [20:08] See that? [20:10] Great. [20:11] So, what does it say? [20:14] This is Hakan Fidan, the Turkish Foreign [20:16] Minister. This is a defensive agreement. [20:18] When a country party to the pact comes [20:19] under attack, you stand by it in its [20:21] defense. This is not an offensive [20:23] agreement. Turkey will not send troops [20:25] to another country to carry out attacks [20:27] on its territory. So, what does that [20:29] mean? That you're only going to shoot [20:30] things down? You're not going to push [20:32] back at all? [20:33] It's very strange. What does defense [20:35] mean? Sometimes defense involves [20:37] shooting, right? No, it's only it's only [20:39] it's only a defensive pact. It's only to [20:41] to you know, [20:43] It doesn't make any sense if you think [20:45] about it in terms of operational [20:47] military activity. And then you have [20:48] this quote. Islamabad said Friday that [20:52] it has substantial forces and resources [20:53] in Saudi Arabia. [20:55] But Pakistani troops will not cross into [20:57] Yemen to attack the Houthis. [20:59] So, they're [21:01] They're just both saying they're going [21:02] to stay out of it. There it is, right? [21:06] Right, Turkey, we're not going on the [21:07] offensive. Pakistan, our troops won't [21:09] cross into Yemen. They'll defend Saudi [21:11] soil and shoot down missiles, but no [21:13] one's going to fight the Houthis. Now, [21:15] most of the Pakistani forces were in the [21:16] kingdom already, by the way. The Saudis [21:18] confirmed a Pakistani Air Force [21:20] contingent arrived back in April. The [21:23] actual ground fighting in Yemen is being [21:24] done by Yemenis. [21:26] Um, but, you know, against the Houthis. [21:29] Um, by the Giants Brigades from the from [21:31] the south that are backed by the UAE [21:33] with Saudi jets overhead. I've covered [21:35] all of this over the last few weeks. The [21:37] Mecca Pact has given Saudi Arabia [21:40] everything except the one thing it [21:41] actually needs, which is someone to [21:43] actually go and fight the Houthis with [21:45] them. And since Turkey and Pakistan [21:47] won't fight, the only thing that this [21:48] alliance can offer is meetings, [21:51] diplomacy. So, they go to Tehran [21:53] together and they ask Iran to rein them [21:55] in because Saudi Arabia is probably [21:57] saying to the Pakistanis and the Turks, [21:58] "Look, guys, you're supposed to help me [21:59] here." So, they're like, "Okay, fine. [22:01] Let's go have a meeting in Tehran and [22:02] get them to get them to stop the [22:04] Houthis." [22:05] So, now, Pakistan's been running this [22:06] play for weeks. [22:08] Look, back in September, Munir got on [22:09] the phone with a rug chief and he and he [22:12] pressed him to get the Houthis to stop [22:13] hitting Saudi energy facilities. Didn't [22:16] help. Uh, this is the same play. [22:19] And so, now, you have the defense [22:20] minister and the intelligence chief [22:22] along for the ride. And look, you all [22:25] see the irony. Iran's whole position is [22:27] we don't control the Houthis. [22:30] And then, these three countries fly to [22:31] Tehran to ask Iran to stop the Houthis. [22:34] Okay, that's why the Saudi coalition [22:36] spokesman wouldn't name Iran. That's why [22:40] Wana writes the it's the Yemeni group [22:42] Ansar Allah. Everyone knows who the [22:45] Houthis answer to, but they won't say [22:46] it. So, Iran gets the best of both [22:48] worlds. It denies control, so it can't [22:50] be blamed. And but then, it gets it gets [22:54] paid for the control that it denies [22:56] because everyone has to come to Tehran [22:57] to ask for help. It's the same thing [22:59] with Hezbollah. If If remember in the [23:01] Islamabad MOU, number one item in the [23:03] MOU, at the top of the list, was that [23:07] Iran would have a say in Leban- in [23:11] decisions about Lebanon's security. [23:14] And but then they deny that they have [23:16] anything to do with Hezbollah. It's I [23:17] mean, it's crazy. Uh [23:19] >> [snorts] [23:19] >> this is this is the way they are. [23:21] So, they have this defense pact that [23:23] won't actually fight. [23:25] Um and the Houthis keep firing. Now, [23:27] there's one more layer here, and it's [23:29] something I've been saying since the [23:30] first week of the war. [23:32] Back in March, when it started, I've [23:34] been saying this since then, you can go [23:36] back and watch those videos. The [23:38] countries around Iran, Saudi Arabia, [23:41] Qatar, Pakistan, [23:44] allied in Turkey, they do not actually [23:46] want the Iranian regime to fall. They [23:48] hate the regime. They'd love for it to [23:50] be weak and battered, that's fine, but [23:52] they're terrified of it collapsing. Why? [23:55] Well, think about it. For the Saudis, if [23:57] Iran becomes a free, pro-Western [23:59] country, Saudi Arabia stops being [24:01] America's indispensable, large partner [24:04] in the region. Iran is huge, has a far [24:07] larger population, it sits on enormous [24:09] oil reserves, and a free, [24:12] pro-Western Iran pumping oil at full [24:14] capacity would would would would make [24:17] Saudi Arabia a far less important [24:19] player. [24:20] It would drive down oil prices. [24:23] They don't want that. [24:25] And the scariest part for the Saudi [24:27] monarchy is what happens to the Saudi [24:30] street when the largest country in the [24:32] region becomes a free, open democracy [24:34] with freedom for of religion, with [24:36] freedom for the Christians who the [24:37] Saudis persecute. [24:39] The Iranian people are not like the [24:41] populations of the Arab states around [24:43] them, and they all know that. The The [24:45] Persian people, the Iranian people are [24:46] educated, they're largely secular in [24:48] outlook, they're pro-Western, and [24:51] there's a growing underground church in [24:52] Iran. A free Iran on the border of these [24:55] countries, Pakistan, [24:58] Qatar, Saudi Arabia, it's the last thing [25:00] they want. [25:03] These are dictatorships. These are [25:05] Islamic dictatorships. They do not want [25:07] the regime to fall. For Pakistan, it's [25:09] even more direct. They share a long [25:11] border with Iran and [25:14] and they have this insurgency that [25:15] straddles both sides of it, the [25:17] Baluchis. I don't want to get into that [25:18] now, but if Tehran collapses, [25:21] you then you get even more unrest on [25:23] their border. So, they're afraid of [25:24] that. Also, they're afraid of refugees. [25:26] If a civil war breaks out in Iran, [25:28] they're afraid of it spilling over into [25:30] their territory. [25:32] Right? And then for Turkey, you have the [25:33] Kurdish issue. Iraq has Kurdish has a [25:36] Kurdish autonomous region. Syria had [25:38] one. And if Tehran falls, what happens [25:41] to the Iranian Kurds? [25:44] That's Erdogan's nightmare. [25:46] So, you know, and Qatar shares the [25:48] biggest gas field in the world with Iran [25:49] and has spent years as Iran's partner in [25:51] sponsoring Hamas. [25:54] Now, I want to be fair here. The Saudis [25:56] aren't simply protecting the Iranian [25:57] regime. They're they're fighting the [25:59] Houthis directly. And back in July, they [26:01] did join the Americans in strikes on [26:04] Iranian militias in Iraq. They want Iran [26:07] weakened and they want the Houthis and [26:08] the Iraqi militias to leave them alone, [26:10] but they don't want the Iranian regime [26:12] removed. [26:14] So, that's also what this meeting is [26:15] about. So, it's part [26:18] Here's what I think's happening in this [26:19] meeting. They're trying to get the [26:20] Iranians to rein in the Houthis, but [26:22] they're also looking at them and saying, [26:25] "Look, we're going to protect you. We'll [26:27] have your back. We'll we'll prevent the [26:29] Americans from removing you, but you got [26:30] to play ball with what we need." I think [26:32] that's what's going on in this meeting. [26:35] I think that's the bottom line of this [26:36] whole thing. Um [26:38] It's about keeping [26:40] That's what they want. [26:42] Okay? So, you know, let's finish this [26:43] off with the last lines of the Wana [26:44] piece. [26:46] All the way down here. Despite the [26:48] shared interest in regional stability, [26:50] the participating countries do not [26:51] necessarily have identical assessments [26:53] of the threats they face or the best [26:55] ways to address them. [26:56] Establishing a lasting security [26:58] framework will therefore depend on the [27:00] extent to which they can agree on common [27:02] objectives and translate dialogue into [27:05] practical measures. A nice little word [27:06] salad, but here's what it means. [27:09] It's about shared interest in regional [27:11] stability. In other words, we're going [27:13] to save [27:14] it's about saving the regime [27:17] and keeping everyone in power. [27:19] Everyone in the room wants to end the [27:22] Iranian aggression. I mean, besides [27:23] Iran. [27:26] >> [laughter] [27:26] >> But the only outcome [27:28] the only outcome that would actually [27:30] stop Iranian aggression across the [27:32] region for good is the one outcome that [27:35] none of them are willing to go forward [27:38] with, which is the downfall of the [27:39] regime. [27:41] Um um you know, the people the regime [27:43] has been executing in public since [27:45] they're you know, since January. [27:47] Um no one's none of these people care [27:49] about them. [27:51] So, when you see headlines about [27:53] regional diplomacy and indigenous [27:54] security and de-escalation, remember [27:57] what you're actually looking at. [27:58] America's partners in the region are not [28:01] trying to help America. They're trying [28:03] to keep the regime alive [28:07] and get the regime to behave. That's [28:10] what this is about. So, if I hope you [28:11] found this video helpful. I hope it was [28:12] interesting. [28:14] Um and yeah, that's my update on the [28:17] Iran on these on these meetings. [28:20] That's where That's where we are right [28:21] now. [28:22] Um [28:23] Great. Thanks for watching and make sure [28:25] you click that link to to get the [28:27] pro-Israel handbook. You want that book. [28:29] It's very very useful little book. [28:31] And uh I'll see you on the next one. God [28:33] bless.
