Transcript [00:00] Now, let's get the reactions of Al [00:02] Arabia's geopolitical and security [00:04] analyst, Riyad Kawaji, right here in the [00:07] studio with me, as well as deputy editor [00:10] of The Spectator and host of the [00:12] Americana podcast. That's Freddy Gray, [00:15] who's all the way in London, and former [00:17] Israeli government advisor Elon Levy in [00:20] Tel Aviv. I just wanted to say a massive [00:22] welcome to all of you. Thank you so much [00:24] for joining me on what looks like an [00:26] extremely historic day for the US. [00:29] Everyone waking up to a very different [00:32] landscape. But Riyad, let's begin with [00:34] you. We just heard from President Donald [00:36] Trump there. Does his statement suggest [00:39] he has no intention of backing out on [00:42] Iran despite this big electoral setback [00:45] we have seen in the midterm elections? [00:48] And also just in the last few minutes, [00:49] we've also been hearing from the vice [00:51] president JD Vance. He said the reason [00:54] we lost the midterms was the war in [00:57] Iran. What are your thoughts on these [00:59] comments? [01:00] >> I don't think is going to back out on [01:02] whatever he actually already intends to [01:04] do. So if he is planning to uh deliver [01:09] another strike, uh he's going to do it [01:12] because this is the only period where he [01:14] can do it. Uh when the Congress is still [01:18] uh Republican controlled the next two [01:21] months. uh so if he planned or already [01:25] had the intention I think he's going to [01:28] continue with it because this is uh the [01:31] only time that would allow for such a [01:35] move but I think he is more or less [01:39] trying to divert the blame for what most [01:44] analysts in the US and the commentators [01:47] that been talking about the results on [01:51] the US main uh uh media mainstream media [01:55] they've all said you know it is the [01:58] inflation uh the cost of living uh these [02:01] were the actual uh causes and they were [02:05] driven up by the tariffs the tariffs [02:09] were was the actual thing that uh pushed [02:13] the inflation up the war contributed [02:17] with the uh with the oil prices with the [02:20] gas prices uh making things worse along [02:24] with the supply chain interruptions that [02:27] also increased the cost on the shipping. [02:30] But mainly the inflation started with [02:34] the tariffs. Um and many economists [02:37] warned from the minute President Trump [02:39] announced the tariffs that this is going [02:40] to happen within a year or two. And this [02:43] is exactly what happened in the US. And [02:45] that's why the voters uh flipped, you [02:49] know, from Republican to Democrats in [02:52] many places. And we have this outcome. [02:55] It's like a bloodbath uh for the [02:57] Republicans. Uh so the war has a um a [03:03] contribution, but it is not the whole [03:06] thing. The main thing is the tariffs. [03:08] >> Yeah, absolutely. Good point. as you did [03:10] say and many economists I've been [03:11] listening to have said the tariffs have [03:13] been highly inflationary. But Freddy, [03:16] let's come to you because the red wall [03:18] in the south and the rust spouts have [03:20] been broken by blue and the house and [03:22] senate have now of course flipped to the [03:25] democrats. Just coming off the back of [03:27] what Riad had to say there. Did Trump [03:29] underestimate just how angry Americans [03:32] are over the rising cost of living as [03:35] the result of the war with Iran and the [03:38] tariffs that are feeding into this [03:40] inflation? [03:42] >> I don't think he underestimated it in [03:44] recent days. Obviously, he wasn't going [03:45] to say so out loud, but I think within [03:47] Trump's circles, there was a an [03:49] understanding that the picture was [03:50] looking very bleak for them in the [03:52] midterms and that the Iran war was a big [03:55] issue that was causing a lot of voter [03:57] anger. and JD Vance has just put this [04:00] extraordinary tweet out um essentially, [04:02] you know, outlining the clear and [04:03] obvious truths about why they lost. I [04:06] think the thing to watch out for the [04:08] next few weeks will be the relationship [04:10] between JD Vance and Donald Trump. Does [04:13] Donald Trump give Vance enough leeway to [04:16] criticize the administration without [04:18] trying to rein him in, without having a [04:20] bust up with him? And does uh does Vance [04:25] kind of distance himself from Trump but [04:27] but while [04:30] while nearly getting Trump to endorse [04:32] him? Uh obviously it's early days for a [04:35] presidential endorsement ahead of 2028. [04:37] But Vance will be wanting to kind of [04:39] lock in Trump's support looking ahead to [04:42] the next presidential election. [04:44] >> Yeah, that's very true. We'll have to [04:46] wait to see what happens of course ahead [04:48] of 2028. that Elon Trump made an [04:52] unsolicited call to the Financial Times [04:55] just hours before the midterm results [04:57] came in and he signaled there would be [05:01] no immediate attack on Iran. Do you [05:04] think he did this because he was [05:06] distancing himself from an unpopular war [05:09] and also Netanyahu's push for renewed [05:12] action and renewed strikes on Iran? [05:14] because we've seen him try to distance [05:16] himself from this over the last few [05:18] weeks. [05:20] >> Look, it's impossible to know what's [05:21] going through President Trump's head. [05:23] It's just as likely that he's trying to [05:25] distance himself from a deeply unpopular [05:27] war as that it is a deception technique [05:30] to get the Iranians to lower their guard [05:32] and then there will be a surprise [05:33] attack. The president now has a Congress [05:36] controlled by the rival party. His [05:38] ability to advance anything on the [05:41] domestic front is completely blocked. [05:43] and presidents in the last two years um [05:46] facing a Congress from a different party [05:49] tend to focus on foreign policy. Trump [05:51] has been really consistent throughout [05:53] his career that he sees the Iranian [05:55] regime as a major threat. Uh the fear of [05:58] nuclear weapons from Iran in particular [06:00] has been a running theme throughout [06:03] President Trump's outlook onto the [06:05] world. Uh and so he will be looking how [06:07] to triangulate this situation. It's not [06:09] clear that there is a way for him to [06:11] completely climb down from the tree. [06:14] Notice that he sent JD Vance to [06:16] negotiate a memorandum of understanding [06:18] with the Iranians. It was many analysts [06:20] said a complete disaster for the United [06:22] States and even that the Iranians could [06:24] not keep because they kept shooting at [06:26] ships in the straight of Hormuz. So [06:28] there's an option of a return to full [06:30] war. There is an option of continuing [06:32] the economic blockade of Iran. What I [06:34] don't see is the United States totally [06:36] walking away from the Middle East and [06:38] leaving all the countries that came [06:40] under Iranian missile and drone attacks [06:42] in February to fend for themselves. [06:45] >> And let's pick up a little bit on that [06:47] um Riyad Kawaji because many analysts [06:49] have been writing pieces today for [06:51] certain newspapers and news channels and [06:54] what they said if President Donald Trump [06:55] is losing power at home domestically, he [06:58] could wreak havoc abroad when it comes [07:01] to foreign policy. And right now we also [07:04] saw Iran's Supreme Leader, he put out a [07:07] statement. It says a shift in US policy [07:09] is unlikely after Trump's midterm [07:12] defeat. So Iran have been watching this [07:14] midterm election really closely right [07:16] now. Where are we at the moment? Does [07:18] Tehran feel emboldened? Does Donald [07:21] Trump feel emboldened that he's still [07:23] got foreign powers? Well, it's it was [07:27] clear from many statements that came [07:29] from Iran and from all those uh uh [07:32] within the so-called axis of resistance [07:35] um taking the the de the victory for the [07:40] Democrats as uh a vindication showing [07:43] that um as Kalibuff you know the house [07:46] speaker of Iran said that this was a [07:49] vote from the Americans saying no to [07:51] war. Uh so um um just trying to show [07:55] that Iran was on a good side. You know [07:58] they have the uh the uh um you know the [08:02] upper hand uh in this whole uh [08:04] situation. Iran has not been well uh has [08:08] not done well in calculating the [08:11] USIsraeli position ever since October [08:14] 7th. A lot of their calculations went [08:17] wrong and that's why they are we are [08:19] where we are today. uh and they could [08:23] still uh miscalculate [08:25] uh how they should deal with this uh [08:29] situation and they should be aware even [08:33] uh after these two two months the US [08:35] cannot just simply walk away. They're [08:38] not going to just call back their fleets [08:41] uh and lift the the blockade and uh and [08:45] the sanctions. This is all going to [08:47] continue because there are a lot of US [08:49] interests and the interest of US allies [08:52] in the region at stake over here. So [08:56] this conflict is going to continue. uh [08:59] it could be at a lower scale, less [09:02] intensity uh than before, but if the [09:06] Iranians uh miscalculate and they try to [09:10] push and go back to uh continue with [09:14] their attacks on the ships and moves, [09:17] continue threats in Babel Mande, things [09:21] could backfire because this is impacting [09:25] global economy including US economy and [09:29] um a lot there are uh plenty of [09:31] Democrats who also oppose Iran, do not [09:35] like Iran's policies and could also uh [09:39] um you know uh allow Trump to uh [09:42] continue and possibly uh go for a second [09:45] strike uh even uh next year. So it's the [09:48] possibility is there and that's why it's [09:51] very important for the Iranians not to [09:54] overread [09:55] uh uh what happened uh in the US midterm [09:58] election [09:59] >> and there's a lot of anticipation in the [10:01] region um Riyad Freddy let's come to you [10:03] because after this historic [10:05] consequential night does this feel like [10:08] regime change domestically for President [10:11] Trump because over a decade or so the [10:14] Republican party has been loyal to one [10:17] man and that one man is Donald Trump. [10:21] >> It certainly feels that way in the kind [10:23] of flush of the moment. You I would urge [10:25] a little bit of caution to people saying [10:27] that you know MAGA is finished and so [10:29] on. Certainly this looks like the sun [10:32] setting on on the Trump era. Um but it [10:35] naturally would because these are the [10:36] midterms. You historically you would see [10:38] a swing against the president and [10:41] everybody will start looking ahead to [10:43] that 2028 and what's going to happen [10:44] after Trump. But uh you know this is a [10:47] very bad set of results for MAGA and [10:49] there's a lot of blame going around and [10:52] there's bound to be a kind of mini civil [10:54] war within the Republican party now. [10:57] However, um it is still a potent and [11:01] serious force in American politics. Um [11:05] it still does turn out huge numbers of [11:07] voters even on a a deeply depressing [11:10] night for them like like last night. So [11:12] I I think you do have to be a little bit [11:14] cautious when you overread in the [11:15] midterms. I mean I remember Barack Obama [11:18] had the famous shellacking in the [11:21] midterms. He recovered pretty well from [11:22] that. Um and I think in terms of the [11:24] House, I'm not quite sure this is fully [11:27] establish. But I think in terms of the [11:28] House, Obama's defeat was worse um than [11:32] Donald Trump's last night. So uh do take [11:34] a bit of with a bit of a pinch of salt. [11:36] I'd say the the idea that um MAGA is [11:39] over. [11:40] It's going to be interesting to see [11:42] because of course we know President [11:43] Donald Trump can make all sorts of [11:45] things happen, can't he? But Elon, [11:47] President Donald Trump actually gave an [11:50] interesting interview on Fox News and he [11:52] says if America doesn't want me, I'll go [11:55] to Israel and be the prime minister. Um, [11:58] I guess the question is, do you want [12:00] him? [12:02] >> Well, Israel is stuck in a very tricky [12:05] political crisis right now because [12:07] >> to say the least, Elon, to say the [12:09] least. Yes. Yeah, because no one managed [12:11] to to win an outright majority in the [12:12] last election. So, who knows? Maybe if [12:15] President Trump wants to get Israeli [12:16] citizenship and run for office, that [12:18] would be a creative way out of the [12:20] political entanglement. [12:22] >> Yeah, I know it was. It kind of made me [12:24] giggle too a little bit. You know, [12:26] Donald Trump, he's always great with his [12:27] oneliners. But um Riad, we're going to [12:30] sum up this right now and just if you [12:33] could just give me what you forecast [12:35] seeing happening in the next few months [12:38] until January until the Democrats, you [12:40] know, do solidify that um power that [12:43] they've won through the midterms. What [12:45] do you think Donald Trump's next steps [12:46] are? I know we don't have a crystal [12:48] ball. We can't read the tea leaves, but [12:50] it'll be interesting to know. Well, as a [12:53] let's say a defense analyst, um I like [12:56] to watch things [snorts] happening on [12:58] the ground more than I listen to [13:00] statements. And from what I've been [13:02] seeing on the ground is a lot of forces [13:05] being amassed. Uh um a lot of assets [13:09] have been moved into the region. Uh um [13:12] and this is an all indication that [13:15] something is uh eminent about to happen. [13:18] Um um and we've always had the [13:22] possibility of the Republicans losing at [13:26] the House. So, President Trump knew [13:29] that, but still he continued with this [13:32] uh effort. Um so, and in Israel there's [13:36] a lot of preparations going on. So, [13:40] something is being planned my belief [13:44] behind the scene and something is about [13:47] to happen. [13:48] how big of a scale um and I think the [13:51] Iranians have kept their guards up so [13:54] far believing that also something might [13:58] happen. So I believe something could [14:01] happen but going beyond uh let's say [14:06] December beyond the holidays I [14:08] anticipate to see a a start of a [14:12] deescalation from the uh let's say the [14:14] hard power we will see more move towards [14:18] soft power along with the economic [14:20] pressure [14:21] >> and um Elon just ending with you too we [14:24] just heard from Riyad Kawaji there [14:26] saying he thinks something is going [14:28] behind the scenes at the moment with the [14:30] US military movement happening. What are [14:33] your thoughts on what could wrap up um [14:36] this midterm election and what's to come [14:38] in the next few months or so? [14:41] >> There was a very disturbing report in [14:43] the New York Times yesterday that Israel [14:45] has presented intelligence to the United [14:47] States that the Iranians may be [14:49] considering the use of chemical weapons. [14:51] Now, the Iranians deny having chemical [14:54] weapons, but they're known to have the [14:55] components for it. And I think that will [14:57] need to be taken very seriously by war [15:00] planners if we're serious about the [15:02] conclusion that the Iranian regime [15:03] really is an apocalyptic and messianic [15:06] regime that is going to take the [15:08] approach of if we're going down, we're [15:10] taking everyone down with us. But at the [15:12] same time, war planners will have to [15:14] think, if the regime really is that [15:16] unstable, if it really is that [15:18] dangerous, how on earth can we let it [15:20] rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal to [15:23] provide immunity for a future nuclear [15:25] program? [15:26] >> Freddy, your final thoughts, if you [15:28] would, please. [15:30] >> I think there's a Republican commentator [15:32] who put it quite interestingly today. He [15:34] said, "I I'd rather Iran have a nuclear [15:36] weapon than be run by socialists." And I [15:39] think that is the feeling among a lot of [15:42] Republican supporters at the moment. [15:43] They have this threat of uh an [15:46] increasingly radical Democratic party. [15:49] Um and they know that the Iran war has [15:51] helped the Democrats massively and that [15:54] the next two years Trump's going to have [15:55] to adapt to it. And I think whereas you [15:57] know I wrote one of those pieces you [15:58] were talking about Lean saying he's [16:00] likely to be more uh aggressive without [16:03] a congressional majority. At the same [16:06] time though, Trump is predictably [16:08] unpredictable and you could quite see [16:10] him responding to the voters. He's good [16:12] at listening to what voters actually [16:14] want and trying to as hard as he can to [16:16] find a way out of the Iran war. [16:18] >> Yes, Trump's always good at tapping into [16:20] the zeitgeist, but um just to say [16:22] Freddy, great piece. I did read that. I [16:24] should have um given your name there [16:26] when I was talking to Riyad Kawaji about [16:28] it, but Riad Kawaji, Freddy Gray, and [16:31] Elon Levy, great to have you on the [16:33] show. Thank you so much. Thank you. [16:35] >> Thanks.
