Transcript [00:04] Good day. Our program is about to begin. [00:09] Good day. Our program is about to begin. [00:14] Good day and welcome to Advocacy [00:16] Anywhere powered by American Jewish [00:18] Committee. Advocacy Anywhere is AJC's [00:20] digital platform that enables you to [00:22] engage with AJC's global expertise, [00:25] content, and advocacy from wherever you [00:27] are. As Israelis prepare to vote on [00:30] October 27th, this election comes at a [00:33] defining moment shaped by the aftermath [00:35] of October 7th and the ensuing war, deep [00:37] internal divisions, and shifting [00:39] political alliances. The stakes extend [00:42] far beyond who will lead the next [00:43] government, raising critical questions [00:45] about Israel's security and national [00:47] direction, its relationship with the [00:49] United States, Europe, and the Jewish [00:51] diaspora, and its approach to the [00:53] Palestinian question and the future of [00:54] Gaza. Please welcome two of Israel's [00:57] leading political journalists, Amit [00:59] Seagal and Tal Shalev, for an inside [01:02] look at the forces shaping this election [01:03] and what is at stake for Israel and its [01:05] future. Moderating our conversation [01:07] today is Lieutenant Colonel Reserve Avi [01:10] Talipovich director of AJC Jerusalem. [01:13] After we hear from our guests, time [01:15] permitting, we'll take your questions. [01:17] You may email your questions to [01:19] questionsjc.org [01:21] questions as plural or you can use the [01:23] Q&A feature in Zoom. Avi, the floor is [01:26] yours. [01:27] >> Thank you so much. Good afternoon and [01:29] welcome. For many Israelis and for the [01:32] Jewish communities abroad, these [01:34] elections feel like a defining moment. [01:38] After October 7th, the Seven Fronts war [01:42] and internal divisions, the debate [01:44] reaches far beyond who will become prime [01:47] minister. It touches on security, [01:50] responsibility, [01:52] public trust, and the kind of country [01:55] Israelis want to build. Some voters see [01:58] this election as an opportunity for [02:00] change and national renewal. Others [02:03] believe continuity and experienced [02:07] leadership are essential in uncertain [02:09] times. today with two Israeli [02:12] journalists who follow these [02:14] developments closely. Amit seal the [02:17] chief political commentator for Israeli [02:19] TV channel 12 and the author of the [02:22] daily newsletter it's noon in [02:24] [clears throat] Israel and Tal Shalev [02:27] CNN's correspondent in Israel. We will [02:30] explore what is driving voters and [02:33] whether the next government can provide [02:36] both stability and a shared direction. [02:40] So thank you uh uh Amit and Tal for [02:43] being with me here today. And let me [02:45] start with the ultraorththodox vote. I [02:49] want to ask both of you how is the [02:51] debate over the military service and [02:54] also the demands of the ultra orthodox [02:57] leadership. How is those two items [02:59] shaping the elections? Do you think they [03:02] could change the ultra orthodox voting [03:05] patterns or the party's choice of [03:07] coalition partners? For example, we [03:09] heard just Lieberman recently over and [03:12] over again saying he refuses to form a [03:15] coalition with the ultraorththodox [03:17] parties. And how do you see that [03:19] forming? T let's begin with you. [03:23] >> Okay. [03:24] Um [clears throat] [03:25] I think it is one of the most burning [03:29] issues in this election. It was supposed [03:32] to be one of the main campaign issues in [03:35] this election because unlike previous [03:38] elections [03:40] um this time the ultra orthodox question [03:43] has a price which many many Israelis [03:46] felt for the past three years. um the [03:50] the the question of the burden of [03:52] service. Um and um while you know [03:57] secular and national religious uh [04:00] reservists spent hundreds of days in an [04:04] ongoing war in ongoing rounds of service [04:07] uh in the IDF [04:10] um and the ultraorththodox parties and [04:13] Netanyahu's coalition at the same time [04:15] were basically trying to legislate a [04:18] draft exemption for everyone um for all [04:22] the ultraorththodox youngsters and it [04:24] was supposed to be one of the most [04:25] defining questions of the elections also [04:28] one of the most interesting ones because [04:30] when you looked at the polls on this [04:33] this is not the traditional yes or no BB [04:36] divide this is not the traditional right [04:39] left divide here you had a very very [04:43] strong group of um national religious [04:46] reser soldiers who comprise today a [04:49] significant portion of both the um [04:54] forces and you know the command uh in [04:56] the IDF and these were the people who [04:59] were crying or leading the cry during [05:02] the war against this the injustice uh of [05:05] the situation and the inequality of the [05:07] uh military service but it actually [05:11] drifted away. It actually is not felt [05:15] that significantly in the campaign. um [05:18] mostly in my opinion because the [05:21] opposition leaders [05:23] are not doing enough um to put it on the [05:27] campaign and um like very previous [05:30] elections um Netanyahu is very much [05:33] controlling the agenda and his rivals [05:36] are just reacting to it. Uh it is true [05:39] that both Liberman and Bennett um put it [05:42] at the um and Eisenkote have put it at [05:45] the top of their agenda but you don't [05:47] really feel it um in the in the [05:50] discourse and in the ongoing election [05:53] discourse. Um I'll leave to Amit to [05:55] discuss um you know the power plays [05:58] inside Netanyahu's coalition because [06:00] that's all that is that is one of the [06:03] big questions. Will there be a divide [06:06] between the ultraorththodox parties and [06:08] Netanyahu and in will the [06:09] ultraorththodox because they are parties [06:12] because they are disappointed with [06:14] Netanyahu who couldn't lead to a draft [06:16] exemption will they revenge by [06:18] supporting or at least um not not not um [06:23] not objecting another opponent if [06:26] someone else will be able to form a [06:28] government. So Amit, number one, do you [06:30] agree with what Tal said? And number [06:32] two, if you can say a few words about [06:34] the newly built, founded ultraorththodox [06:38] parties, which is a new phenomenon this [06:39] time. [06:41] >> So um good evening everyone. Um the [06:44] ultraorththodox parties are the Achilles [06:46] heel of Netanyahu's coalition and it's [06:50] the biggest shadow on his prospects to [06:53] get reelected again. way more than [06:55] October 7th. Because while when it comes [06:58] to October 7th, there are some Israelis, [07:02] most of Nataniel's um black voters who [07:06] think that October 7th would have [07:08] happened to any other leader, but none [07:11] of the other leaders would have led [07:13] Israel to consecutive military successes [07:16] following October 7th. So security [07:19] itself, I know it sounds [07:22] counterintuitive, but security issues [07:26] usually help Netanyahu. So yes, he was [07:30] heavily damaged when it comes to [07:32] security post October 7th and yet it's [07:35] still uh a better issue for him than [07:39] domestic issues. First and foremost, the [07:43] the ultraorthodox question. I would like [07:44] to explain something crucial about it. [07:47] The outrodox parties are an addictive [07:49] stuff if you are a politician. Why? [07:52] Because in an era in which leaders of 5% [07:57] support demand and get the prime [08:01] minister's office and leaders who have [08:04] 6% become [08:07] um the finance ministers or this the [08:10] defense ministers. The ultraodox parties [08:13] with their 15% [08:15] 15 of the popular vote never demanded [08:18] the prime minister's office nor the uh [08:21] defense security defense economy [08:26] defense treasury ministry and foreign [08:28] affairs [08:29] >> foreign affairs [08:30] >> of course for instance all they wanted [08:32] is just one little thing I I it it used [08:37] to be little to say look we don't want [08:39] to serve in the army hence We ask you to [08:43] fund our uh biosphere, our ecosystem, [08:47] our [clears throat] [08:48] ecosystem with simple yet important [08:53] financial subsidies. For instance, I'll [08:55] give an example. I live in Jerusalem and [08:59] I pay the highest rate in the country [09:03] when it comes to municipal taxes. Why? [09:06] because there is a law legislated by a a [09:10] khedi supported coalitions saying [09:12] something very innocent on its surface [09:16] uh it says that if one of the spouses [09:19] doesn't work the household will be [09:22] subsidized when it comes to a municipal [09:24] taxes [09:26] however it doesn't deal only with a [09:28] situation of unemployment but with a [09:31] decision not to work so if I am to pay [09:37] a hell lot of money for the Jerusalem [09:39] municipality in order to subsidize [09:41] someone. I personally prefer not to fund [09:44] my ultraorthodox cousin, real cousin by [09:47] the way, who chose not to work. I would [09:50] prefer to fund my real other cousin who [09:53] served 450 days in reserves over the [09:56] last 3 years. That's the main issue. [09:59] Now, as long as the discourse is focused [10:02] on the ultraorththodox question, [10:04] Netanyahu has nothing to write home [10:05] about about this election. [10:08] If Nataniel succeeds in framing the [10:11] election around [clears throat] [10:14] security [10:16] and around the the only sector in Israel [10:20] which is even less popular than the [10:23] ultraorthodox which is the Arab parties [10:26] the nonzionist/ anti-ionist Arab parties [10:29] then you can gain ground and I'll put it [10:31] really [10:33] bluntly sorry for the French. This [10:36] election will be decided by the question [10:39] who do you detest more the [10:41] ultraorththodox or the althodox [10:45] politicians or the Arab politicians [10:47] that's the question of this election. So [10:49] let me ask you the followup on the Arab [10:51] vote because I do agree with you that [10:55] you know in order to build a 61 minimum [10:57] of 61 seats coalition and we see the [11:00] numbers each of the two blocks have [11:02] between 52 to 258 seats currently [11:06] depending on four different polls an [11:08] average of four different polls each of [11:10] them would need to join arms either with [11:12] the ultraorthodox or the Arabs and let's [11:14] talk about the Arabs for a minute [11:16] because for decades they refused to be a [11:18] part of the government. Do you see a [11:21] situation [11:23] that right now despite of the fact that [11:26] both blocks are saying we will only sit [11:29] or form a coalition with Zionist [11:32] parties, do you see an option that still [11:35] at least one of the Arab parties, we're [11:36] talking about I think 9 to 211 seats of [11:38] the all the parties. Do you think there [11:40] is a potential for that for [11:42] collaboration between the Arab parties [11:44] and one of the blocks in order to [11:46] achieve a coalition? I mean, [11:48] >> the Arab parties. The Arab parties. Yes. [11:52] >> Okay. I'll put it this way. If they [11:56] announce it prior to the election, it's [11:58] going to be devastating for the [12:00] prospects of the opposition to get [12:02] elected. I I'll explain. We We've just I [12:05] I just um conducted a poll. I I didn't [12:08] conduct a poll. I called the pollster [12:10] and asked him to conduct a poll. And the [12:12] and the question was [12:14] plain simple. which you have to choose [12:17] three parties with which you don't want [12:20] a coalition to be formed. Just name [12:23] those three. So the two leading parties [12:26] are the two Arab parties with 37%. [12:30] Number three is Benir's party. Now look [12:32] how it shifts from one side to the [12:34] other. So it's the Arab parties sorry [12:36] the Ara parties Benavir [12:39] Golana the Democrats BBmotri [12:44] and there is only 1% of the public that [12:48] doesn't want to join forces with Gaddy [12:50] Eisenot which means that Netanyahu so [12:53] far failed to frame Gadi Eisenot as a as [12:56] a clear and imminent danger. It's quite [12:59] unusual for Netanyahu's [13:02] campaign skills. So, here's my [13:05] conclusion. [13:07] Can it happen? Yes. Can it survive for a [13:11] long time? I don't think so. Especially [13:14] when this the next government will have [13:16] to deal on a daily basis with Gaza, [13:18] Lebanon, Syria, and of course, Iran and [13:21] Judan, Samaria. Um, [13:24] and that's why I think if it happens, [13:26] it's something temporary and Israel will [13:29] will will see another round of election [13:31] in 2027. [13:33] >> So, T, let me turn it to you, but also [13:35] add [13:36] just thinking of the Arab voters. Okay. [13:39] Number one, what kind of percentage of [13:42] voting do you anticipate? I mean, you [13:44] know, we've seen everything from 40 [13:45] something% to 50 something% even close [13:48] to 60. And number two, uh, what do you [13:51] think is the main topics when an [13:53] Arab-Israeli goes to vote? Is it the [13:55] crime inside their villages? Is it the [13:58] Palestinian cause? Is it security? How [14:01] how do you see it? [14:04] >> Well, um, I think that we don't know [14:08] what the voter turnout will be. [14:10] Traditionally, the voter turnout in the [14:12] Arab sector is at least 10% lower than [14:15] it is in the Jewish sector. Um, but we [14:20] are after a 4year term of a government [14:25] that was considered very bad for the [14:28] Arab sector. It's a Ben Netanyao [14:30] government and I'm saying Benville first [14:33] because Benville was in charge of the [14:35] police and there is a crime plague in [14:38] the Arab sector which has and the crime [14:41] rates have spiked under this government. [14:44] So I think the main issue for the Arab [14:48] voter is crime and security in ter you [14:51] know domestic security and racism. Um so [14:58] and I think that if we don't see [15:02] some kind of rise in the voter turnout [15:05] in these elections after these four [15:08] years which were you know everyone in [15:10] the Arab uh political world said these [15:13] the worst four years we've ever had. So [15:15] if in these elections we don't see any [15:18] change in the Arab voter turnout then I [15:21] think that message will be a message [15:23] about where the Arabs see their [15:25] participation in Israeli society. I mean [15:27] there you get as a dem you know as a [15:29] citizen in a democratic country you get [15:31] one chance every four years to try and [15:34] change your fate and if they don't use [15:37] that um that says something about their [15:39] connection to the country their their [15:42] trust in the country. Um so um they are [15:47] also organized much better than they [15:49] were in the previous election. In the [15:51] previous election there were three Arab [15:53] parties running and eventually Bala [15:56] didn't pass the threshold. This time [15:58] they're organized in two parties. So um [16:02] which means that at least I don't know [16:06] some hundred thousand and something [16:09] thousand votes that just went down the [16:11] drain in the last time are going to be [16:13] part. So I do think we can expect some [16:16] kind of rise in the Arab sector and [16:18] that's one of the question of the [16:20] elections because of the electoral [16:22] threshold um which is basically the main [16:25] game in the election and that is why we [16:27] cannot basically talk about anything [16:29] because of this the 3.25% 25% electoral [16:32] threshold. But the minute there are more [16:34] Arab voters, then the electoral [16:36] threshold will rise and that will make [16:39] it more difficult for smaller parties to [16:42] pass a threshold and enter the Knesset. [16:45] Um, I do just want to say one last [16:48] thing. There's a variety of options in [16:52] which the Arab parties can cooperate [16:55] with the anti-Netanyao block which is [16:58] not necessarily forming a government. Um [17:01] so I do think we will see some [17:03] definitely see some kind of political [17:06] cooperation. Uh we have heard um even [17:09] from the uh leader of the joint list [17:11] he's already said we will cooperate with [17:13] whoever is not Netanyahu. Um so there [17:16] will be some extent of political [17:18] cooperation. It will not necessarily go [17:20] into a full you know membership in the [17:23] government but you can also make moves [17:25] in the Knesset with a parliamentary [17:28] majority um if the Arabs decide to join [17:31] forces with the anti-Nanya block. [17:35] >> Right. Very interesting. Now I want your [17:37] take now to two topics which are of [17:41] special interest to our viewers and the [17:44] both of the topics are linked together. [17:47] The first is the well-being of the [17:49] Jewish communities worldwide and the [17:52] second one is Israel's global [17:55] positioning. And the two obviously are [17:58] linked because as Israel global [18:00] positioning has deteriorated after [18:02] October 7th, so did the security of the [18:06] Jewish communities. [18:08] In your opinion, because I haven't heard [18:10] this in their public uh campaigns, how [18:14] do the major parties address these two [18:17] issues? [18:20] >> Uh they don't. [18:22] >> And am I am I right? Exactly. They're [18:24] not in the campaign. [18:25] >> Okay. So, I once had a lecturer named [18:28] Bill Bryson at University College [18:31] London. He wrote a brilliant book, Notes [18:33] from a Small Island, about the lives. He [18:35] he he is an American who taught uh uh [18:39] for years in um in the United Kingdom. [18:42] So he wrote a book about the United [18:44] Kingdom to Americans and he said that [18:47] had he needed to depict a a the map of [18:51] the world to draw the map of the world [18:53] according only to the British press. So [18:56] the UK was of this the give or take the [18:59] size of Europe. The US was the island [19:02] nearby like the UK and the rest of the [19:03] world in America. [19:05] I think that if you follow Israeli press [19:07] and Israeli politicians, so Israel is [19:11] planet Earth, [19:13] um the US is the moon and the rest of [19:16] the world is somewhere, I don't know, [19:18] far far away uh in the Milky Way. What [19:21] I'm trying to say is that if you want to [19:25] make something important for Israelis [19:27] and to have it priorit prioritized by by [19:30] Israeli politicians, [19:32] you should frame it as a matter of [19:35] security of national security. Now I do [19:38] think that Israelis understand the [19:41] average Israeli understands today that [19:44] the uh lives of Jews abroad and the uh [19:49] the way Jews are treated abroad actually [19:52] means a lot to Israel. [19:55] How do you translate it to something [19:57] which is separate from the regular Iran [20:00] Gaza sort of stuff? Uh we still have a [20:03] way to go. Um but um but [20:06] >> and what about the international [20:08] positioning? You know you hear voices [20:10] amit and tal I'll give you immediately [20:12] after [20:13] >> maybe Tal is way better [laughter] [20:16] understands way better than me. [20:18] >> No but you know you hear both of you I [20:20] mean you hear these statements that say [20:22] that you know Netanyahu is not um an [20:25] admired or respected figure worldwide [20:27] and this actually stains Israel's global [20:29] reputation. [20:31] um if he would be reelected or if with a [20:35] new government or there will be a [20:36] totally different government would that [20:38] actually improve in your opinion [20:41] Israel's image in the world in other [20:43] words will we see the stop of the [20:46] campaigns of the genocide in Israel and [20:48] all of those cries we are hearing for [20:50] the last three years or or it's whatever [20:53] you point whatever who whoever the [20:55] Israeli people will elect will not make [20:57] a difference what do you think [20:59] >> well personally Personally, I think that [21:02] um Netanyahu is definitely at the moment [21:05] the poster boy of Israel and he's not a [21:08] po popular poster boy. Um and um I do [21:13] think that if Netanyahu is not elected [21:16] and someone would be elect, someone else [21:19] would be prime minister, the c the [21:21] cosmetics of that post abroad will [21:23] change. First of all, Netanyahu cannot [21:26] at the moment hasn't made any [21:29] international trips decides to um the [21:33] Emirates and the US in the past uh two [21:36] or three years. I think he had another [21:38] visit to Hungary perhaps. Um he can't [21:41] land in any almost any European capital [21:45] because of the ICC arrest warrants [21:47] because he's concerned of them. Um, so [21:51] and I think that the international [21:53] community is definitely eager to have [21:57] someone instead of Netanyahu, but at the [22:01] end of the day, if we look at what is [22:04] actually going to change policywise, [22:08] there's not going to be a dramatic [22:10] policy change in Israel on any topic [22:13] just because even if there's another [22:15] government that will replace Netanyahu, [22:18] it will be a right-wing government or at [22:20] least a very um right-wingleaning [22:23] government. Gaddy Eisenkot's party um [22:27] even if he him is is I don't know third [22:30] of it is rightwing. You have Bennett who [22:33] defines himself rightwing. Um you have [22:36] um Liberman who is right-wing. So even [22:38] if Gadi Eisenot would want to do [22:41] something more dramatic um you know on [22:44] the global scene with the Palestinians [22:46] he wouldn't have any coalition partner [22:48] to do that there's no political support [22:51] for that and at the end of the day at [22:53] the point where we are [22:56] um so maybe a new government will get [22:57] like half a year of grace if it um half [23:01] a year but after half a year if it does [23:03] not make significant changes on the [23:06] Palestinian and the settlement ment [23:08] issue um which is now you know that is [23:12] the where the international community is [23:14] that is where the sanction regime is [23:16] that is where we are going and in that [23:19] respect I do not see a government making [23:22] dramatic changes in the settlements um [23:25] there would be I guess um I assume that [23:29] a new government would change or at [23:31] least try and demonstrate that a [23:34] different approach to Jewish terrorism M [23:37] in the West Bank. Um we might see, you [23:41] know, the administrative detentions [23:42] coming back, a stronger hand uh trying [23:45] to deal with that. That may be enough to [23:48] give the international community some [23:50] another, you know, some more months of [23:52] grace. But at the end of the day, when [23:54] you when you see where the international [23:56] community is going with recognizing a [23:59] Palestinian state and imposing sanctions [24:01] on the settlements, I don't see even a [24:03] different government making dramatic [24:05] changes there that would change inter um [24:08] Israel's international positioning, but [24:11] it will stop the bleed. And if Netanyahu [24:14] does get reelected and he does form a [24:17] government with his current coalition, [24:19] the bleed will definitely continue. if [24:21] you have Nataniel Benmotric [24:24] in still in charge after the elections. [24:28] >> So in other words, it's either stopping [24:29] the bleeds for several months or [24:32] continuing immediately. That's more or [24:34] less what you're saying. So Amit, I want [24:36] to uh uh continue where to stop [24:38] regarding the issue of the settlements. [24:41] So how would you define the differences [24:44] between the parties on the issue of [24:47] settlement expansion, legalization of uh [24:51] unauthorized outpost and annexation in [24:55] the West Bank or Judan Samaria? Uh how [24:58] how do you see uh the the positions of [25:00] the different parties on this? [25:02] To be honest, I think most of the [25:04] parties lie to the public when it comes [25:06] to the Palestinian/Jewish [25:10] villages question. And I'll explain why. [25:13] It's very easy to be hawkish in 2026 in [25:17] Israel [snorts] prior to the election [25:19] when Trump is in office. Yes, the UK has [25:23] just sanctioned sanctioned the various [25:27] Israeli institutions around this [25:29] settlement question and yes there is a [25:31] growing sentiment against [25:34] um the Israeli expansion in the United [25:36] States but as long as the president is [25:38] Trump so there is an automatic uh [25:42] American veto against any anti-Israeli [25:44] decision and um the only things thing [25:49] that matters [25:50] for the Israeli leadership is the [25:52] decision taken in Washington. And [25:54] President Trump is not a member of the [25:56] two-state solutions fan club. By the [25:59] way, his entire plan in Gaza is actually [26:02] a deviation, a dramatic deviation from [26:05] uh the Oslo Accord process and the [26:10] idea of [26:12] um relying heavily on the Palestinian [26:16] Authority. Gaza according to the Trump [26:19] plan actually was transferred not from [26:22] Israel to the board of peace but from [26:25] the Palestinian authority to the broad [26:28] to the to the board of peace which is [26:31] dramatic and that's why in my opinion as [26:33] a very hawkish [26:35] Israeli I fully support his plan I think [26:38] it's stupidity from the Israeli side not [26:40] to move forward way faster uh because [26:43] it's always about uh um uh poss possible [26:47] path is not dreams that you have in mind [26:50] and fantasies. Uh this is one thing but [26:54] when Trump is no longer president we [26:56] have at least I can I think we can agree [26:58] on it that we have at least 50% that the [27:01] next president is going to be democrat [27:04] and if it is going to be a democrat he's [27:07] going to be very hostile towards Israel [27:09] even if you take Ramy Emanuel for [27:11] instance which is [27:12] >> on the issue on the issue specifically [27:14] of the settlements hostile on this [27:16] specific issue [27:17] >> absolutely [27:19] not only this in my opinion but at least [27:22] around the West Bank/Judan question and [27:26] then under heavy international and [27:29] American pressure we are going to see [27:31] the differences here's the difference in [27:33] my opinion Smotric and Benver's support [27:37] in building almost everywhere no matter [27:40] what the consequences are Netanyao [27:43] thinks might think that Israel should [27:47] actually concentrate on the existing [27:49] areas [27:51] Eisenotan [27:54] and others will support in my opinion uh [27:57] evacuating some illegal farms, illegal [28:02] settlements and effectively stopping [28:04] building in Juda and Samaria. That's my [28:06] assessment and it's going to it's I have [28:09] to say something. The Palestinian [28:12] question is off the table when it comes [28:14] to the Israeli election. However, I [28:17] think personally that this is the most [28:20] important question of the next term [28:23] under the condition that it lasts more [28:24] than 3 months of course and I think [28:27] Israelis should focus on this question [28:31] and decide according to their opinion. [28:34] Um uh I'll shamelessly promote my [28:37] newsletter now. I wrote about it last [28:40] week and about this very question and [28:42] about what Israel should do because uh [28:46] there is a joke uh Ron Durmer always [28:49] says the the most loyal figure in [28:52] Netanyahu's entourage he says okay [28:54] surrendering is always on the table uh [28:57] so before surrendering I think Israelis [29:00] can do many things in order to to [29:03] actually weather the storm [29:06] >> yes I just want to add [clears throat] [29:09] another scenario um just to the that it [29:13] is possible that after the elections and [29:16] after the midterms President Trump will [29:19] have two years to his term um and it is [29:23] possible that after the Israeli [29:26] elections uh he will I don't if whether [29:29] it's Nathaniel or someone else he will [29:31] try and dedicate the rest of his the [29:34] rest of his term to forming the big deal [29:37] which is Israel and Saudi Arabia which [29:39] he has been trying to create in the past [29:42] uh few years and various administrations [29:45] have been trying to create that. Um and [29:48] that could change a lot in the dynamics [29:52] both on the Palestinian side. Um, I do [29:56] think that Netanyahu with a different [29:59] government or not Netanyahu with a [30:02] different government, someone who's not [30:04] Netanyahu with a different government, [30:06] um, could definitely embrace the notion [30:09] of normalization with Saudi Arabia [30:13] while paying some price. But Netanyah [30:16] would have to be with a different [30:18] government in order to do that and not [30:20] with his current government. But even [30:23] that small price or some kind of a price [30:25] that will not be a full statehood to the [30:28] Palestinians. It will be some sort of [30:32] >> but it could change the dynamic. It [30:33] could change the you know it would be [30:36] something positive coming out of Israel [30:38] and not only bad news coming out not [30:42] only war news coming out of Israel [30:43] >> for sure and of course affecting the [30:45] regional dynamics. Let's talk a little [30:46] bit the about the anti Netanyahu block. [30:50] You know, for a while we were stuck with [30:52] the left-wing block, the right-wing [30:54] block. Now we are finding ourselves in a [30:56] new situation, pro- Netanyao block, and [30:58] anti Netanyao block. So, um, let's say [31:02] I'm an Israeli and I'm going to vote in [31:04] two weeks for this block. Who will be [31:07] the prime minister I'm voting for? Is it [31:09] going to be Liberman? Is it going to be [31:11] Bennett? Is it going to be Laid Eisenot? [31:14] It seems that this is a block in the [31:18] name but in reality they're very [31:21] divided. So could you a little bit [31:23] explain to us what is the uh essence of [31:26] the divide and um and really why why are [31:30] they refraining from choosing one leader [31:33] Amit? [31:34] >> So there is something that both Israelis [31:39] and Americans have hard times [31:40] understanding about Israeli politics. It [31:44] is not the public [31:46] which elects the prime minister. It's [31:48] the Knesset. The public, the electorate [31:52] elects the Knesset and then the 120 [31:54] Knesset members choose, elect, nominate [31:58] their prime minister. So it doesn't [32:00] really matter who has the upper hand [32:02] when it comes to the number of seats. [32:04] The only thing that matters is who can [32:08] organize 61 members or at least [32:10] majority. [32:12] Now, here's the thing. [32:15] Bennett Bennett's decision to be a prime [32:18] minister with only six seats out of 120 [32:22] six years ago destroyed Israeli politics [32:25] forever in my opinion. Why? [32:28] Because there is no point. I I mean I [32:31] I'm I'm a big fan of the old uh outdated [32:35] idea that in order to be a leader in a [32:37] democratic country, you should be [32:39] popular. you should actually get the [32:41] votes otherwise we can nominate someone [32:44] you know professional I have some I have [32:46] some names uh the only idea of democracy [32:49] is having enough votes but if all it [32:53] takes is just to play the poker very [32:56] efficiently and to be both the kingmaker [32:59] and the king itself [33:01] that is to say look if you want me to [33:03] choose you to join forces with you let [33:06] me be the prime minister so there is no [33:08] point in doing it it causes a mess. And [33:11] that's exactly what is happening as we [33:13] speak in the opposition block. Eisenard [33:16] says, "Look, I'm the leader. I'm leading [33:18] the polls. I I I have more than 20 [33:20] seats. [33:22] I'm I'm outnumbering you." [33:25] Bennett says, "I was prime minister and [33:28] I have 13 seats, which is almost it's [33:31] it's doubling the number with which I [33:34] became a prime minister, so why not?" [33:36] And Liberon says, "I I I got your [33:39] trick." and I want to use it myself. [33:41] What will you tell me, Mr. Bennett or [33:44] Golano or or or Laid that I'm not [33:47] allowed to be a prime minister with only [33:48] eight seats? I'm the most experienced [33:50] one. And by the way, if you don't let me [33:52] be the prime minister, so let's go again [33:54] to the polls. Let's roll the dice again. [33:57] That's give or take the gamble. So, we [33:59] have three different prime ministers. I [34:01] would say that if the opposition is [34:04] going to form the next government, I [34:06] think it's either it's going to be [34:08] either Eisenkot or Liberman. Eisenot [34:11] because he got the upper hand when it [34:13] comes to the number of seats probably [34:15] and Liberman because he he he uses [34:18] exactly the same technique that Bennett [34:20] used. Either you let me be a prime [34:22] minister or you don't have a government. [34:25] >> Plus, he's very stubborn, is not willing [34:27] to give up his place. That's also a [34:29] character issue. [34:31] >> Flexibility is not one of his leading [34:33] virtues. [34:35] >> A sense of humor, however, it is. [34:38] >> Um, I want to go with both of you to the [34:41] final question and this is, you know, [34:43] something that I'm being asked a million [34:45] times a day by my friends abroad. the [34:49] potential outcome [34:51] based on what you are seeing today and [34:54] with an emphasis on today. What is the [34:57] most likely outcome? Are we going to see [35:01] another Netanyahu government? And if so, [35:04] will this be a new government? Or will [35:07] we see a government led by Netanyahu's [35:10] opponents? and if so with [35:13] ultraorththodox or with Arab parties or [35:17] another round or [35:20] chances for a unity government t let's [35:23] begin with you [35:25] >> so I've been through too many elections [35:27] to know that I never give that [35:30] prediction because I will [35:32] >> I gave you a lot of options that's one [35:35] of them it's one of them or one of them [35:37] that you didn't mention um I also So [35:41] it's it's impossible to predict because [35:43] of the electoral threshold because we're [35:45] living on polls that predict that [35:48] everything depends on very small [35:50] parties. I will say that the anti- [35:53] Nathaniel block is organized much better [35:56] than Netanyahu's block in that respect [36:00] that there are four parties um and they [36:03] are all very far away from the [36:05] threshold. So none of them are are in [36:07] danger. But in Netanyahu's block, there [36:10] are at least three or four parties that [36:12] are small small parties that in one poll [36:16] they get four seats, in one poll they [36:18] get five seats, in one poll they get six [36:20] seats. That doesn't really put them out [36:22] of danger. Um, just to recall the [36:26] previous election in 2022, [36:28] Merittz, the left-wing party was in [36:31] exactly the same situation. All the [36:33] pollsters passed meditates with four or [36:37] five seats until the very last poll, but [36:39] then it didn't pass the threshold and it [36:41] changed the whole map. So really, it I'm [36:45] not going to take your bite and I'm not [36:47] going to uh to put any assessment on [36:50] anything. I also want to say [36:53] that when I woke up uh and this connects [36:57] to what uh Amit was talking about [36:59] before. Uh when I woke up on October [37:02] 8th, 2023, I had a very strong feeling [37:06] that everything is going to change from [37:08] now on and nothing is ever going to be [37:11] the same. And here we are three years [37:14] later in an election campaign that looks [37:17] exactly like previous election [37:19] campaigns. in me very many aspects and [37:23] Netanyahu's opposition [37:26] and rivals are also in exactly the same [37:28] situation fighting between themselves [37:31] not able to agree on one candidate so [37:35] nothing really changes [37:37] um so so I don't know what that means [37:40] about the elections but um there was I [37:43] think there was an expectation that [37:45] October 7 and not only October 7 this [37:47] was a very very dramatic four-year term [37:50] It was expectation that this would [37:51] create an earthquake in Israeli [37:53] politics. We're not seeing that [37:55] earthquake yet. We might see it on [37:57] election day or the day after, but so [37:59] far we're not seeing that that [38:01] earthquake happen yet. [38:03] >> Yeah. I I reflect on what you're saying [38:06] because I remember the Israeli rhetoric [38:09] was on the fact that the government [38:11] would not last four years. remember that [38:13] it was like every year there was a new [38:15] kind of prediction that the government [38:18] is about to to crumble and fall apart [38:20] because of October 7 because of the [38:22] situation and so on and so I agree with [38:24] the issue of prediction it's it's very [38:26] tricky amit [38:31] >> um [38:32] >> unity government maybe let's talk about [38:34] unity government I mean is there Israel [38:36] went to a few times to unity government [38:38] in the past so we've been there do you [38:41] really see an opport opportunity and and [38:43] you know we are hearing voices from [38:45] President Herzog that he will try to [38:48] shift towards that direction in maybe in [38:51] an effort to prevent a deadlock. How do [38:53] you see it? [38:55] >> I fully support President Herto's [38:58] efforts but I suspect um he [snorts] [39:02] does not necessar is not necessarily [39:04] going to achieve it and the reason is [39:06] that politics in Israel turned into [39:09] religion. Just think of the layers over [39:12] layers of [39:14] emotions [snorts] and history invested [39:17] with it. There are many uh Israelis that [39:21] can't stand Netanyahu because they think [39:24] that he incited against Prime Minister [39:26] Rabin in 1995, Israel's [39:30] most devastating trauma save October 7th [39:34] and maybe on Kipo War. There are others [39:36] that can't forgive the opposition on the [39:39] other hand on what they think was a [39:42] witch hunt that led to Nataniel's trial [39:45] that give or take collapses uh is [39:48] collapsing these days. Um and then [39:52] October 7th and the ultraorthodox [39:54] alliance and it's not only Netanyahu [39:56] because now the Netanyao's allies are [40:00] even less popular than him. So here's a [40:02] chicken and egg question. [40:05] Usually in the past in the in the 80s [40:07] for instance [40:09] unity government meant that the two um [40:13] biggest parties joined forces together [40:16] thus you know ne getting rid of the far [40:19] right and far left small parties. Is it [40:22] still the case? I mean who do you hate [40:25] the most? There is a question who do you [40:27] love the most daddy or mommy? Who do you [40:29] hate who who do you hate most? Nathan [40:32] Yao Shas uh Smriidge Bengavir it's a [40:36] question so [40:39] >> but there's another issue also and it [40:41] was in your channel the channel you're [40:42] working in channel 12 I remember you ran [40:45] a poll not you specifically but the [40:47] channel ran a poll about [40:50] kids voting like their parents [40:53] and you found out in that poll and this [40:56] is also interesting for our audience I [40:57] think because this is I think unique to [40:59] Israeli political system that a lot of [41:02] the kids actually vote like their [41:03] families without even understanding, [41:06] you know, every single bit and of [41:08] information, but the emotions drive them [41:10] to vote like their parents. [41:12] >> I don't I don't want to sound a boomer, [41:16] but isn't it the case uh wasn't it the [41:19] case for us as well? How many of the [41:21] audience vote differently than their [41:23] parents? Usually the world international [41:25] statistics is something like 70%. [41:28] which puts you know a a a huge question [41:32] mark on the on the perception of [41:36] ourselves as people who I mean our image [41:39] our image is that we read we learn we we [41:44] digest the stuff we are intellectuals [41:46] and then we decide who to vote. [41:50] Uh usually usually people grow up with [41:55] their political opinion and then they [41:58] attach you know various arguments in [42:02] order to to have justification for uh [42:05] for the the their decision that had [42:07] already been made. So [42:10] so it's not something really dramatic. [42:12] If it if it comes to demographics, you [42:16] have to bear in mind there is an old [42:18] joke in Israel that on that every [42:22] ambulance that you hear on the street is [42:24] either a left voter who is going who is [42:26] going to hospital to die or or a [42:29] right-wing voter who's going to hospital [42:31] to be born. Now, while I don't think [42:33] it's the case today, I think today it's [42:36] either an ultraorththodox of an Arab [42:37] going to going to burn or or [42:42] I don't know, Zion is going to die. Uh [42:46] it's it's it's a very complicated issue. [42:49] By the way, if you wonder where the [42:53] surprises might come might come from, [42:55] it's from those 18 to 26 year old voters [43:00] who barely respond to pollsters. They [43:03] don't have landlines. They barely take [43:06] phone calls on their cell phones. [43:08] They're quite suspicious about sharing [43:10] personal information. Sometimes they are [43:12] in the army so they they can't actually [43:16] participate in panels and maybe the the [43:18] the surprise will come from [snorts] [43:20] there. [43:22] >> Interesting. I think it's time for uh [43:25] the viewers questions. So Lauren, I'm [43:27] turning it to you. [43:29] >> Thank you, Avit. Our first question [43:31] today is from Susan Newark. What are we [43:34] seeing when it comes to Israelis abroad [43:36] traveling home to vote and could that be [43:38] a meaningful factor in this election? [43:42] Oh, [43:42] >> maybe you should answer. [43:43] >> Um, yeah. So, there there's a vi we [43:47] don't there's a vibe that there's a wave [43:50] of Israelis coming to vote. There was [43:52] definitely an effort from grassroot [43:56] organizations that to bring liberal [43:59] Israelis back to vote. Uh, but of [44:01] course, we don't know how to say how [44:03] many of the Israelis coming back to vote [44:06] are liberal or how many are them uh [44:08] Netanyahu supporters. There are also [44:10] Netanyahu supporters and Karedi [44:12] supporters, Karedi voters who can come [44:14] from abroad. But the Israeli liberal [44:18] camp who built uh quite a wide grassroot [44:22] effort during the anti- um judicial [44:26] overhaul protests in 2023. Uh one of [44:29] their efforts has been to help Israelis [44:32] abroad make it back to Israel by helping [44:35] them find cheap flights and cheaper [44:37] flight routes. And there was um there [44:41] has been a lot of um um buzz on social [44:44] media about it. Um it could ch I I heard [44:47] the um the numbers are speaking about um [44:52] 50,000 to 70,000 Israelis that will come [44:56] back to vote which could be between [44:58] somewhere between one and a half to two [45:02] seats mandates eventually. Um but I [45:06] think it it it tests to serve um mostly [45:10] about where the liberal camp feels these [45:13] elections are going and how um Israel [45:17] liberals feel that these elections are [45:19] as Avital said the most defining or the [45:22] most important elections um ever or at [45:25] least in the in the close memory. I [45:28] think Israelis always say that but this [45:30] time um I think it's people think that [45:33] it feel that it's more than a cliche [45:35] after these four years that were ve like [45:38] a very volatile term in which the [45:40] country had a very right-wing [45:43] government. Um [45:46] but again we don't know how many Karedi [45:48] voters are coming back and we don't know [45:50] how many supporters are coming back from [45:52] Miami. Um so um it probably goes both [45:56] ways. [46:00] I I I I was really interested by this [46:03] question. [46:05] So I checked how many flights there are [46:07] to Israel from to Israel on the week of [46:11] October 27th. And the number is there [46:14] are only five more flights. So even that [46:17] if they are full with liberals or [46:20] opposition voters, you name it, it means [46:23] another 1,500 voters. Now, of course, [46:26] there might be a higher a higher rate of [46:30] um li of liberal voters um on their, you [46:34] know, regular flights. But [snorts] I [46:37] I'm not sure this is the phenomenon that [46:39] is going to decide the election. It's [46:42] more about the disillusionment of liquid [46:44] voters who might not show up to vote [46:48] from their sofa in I don't know Tel [46:51] Aviv, Burva, Jerusalem than those who [46:54] who might fly all the way from San [46:56] Francisco. [46:57] >> It's about motivation and uh it's not [47:00] clear. I mean it the voter turnout will [47:03] be about motivation and the question is [47:06] who is more motivated? Is it the [47:08] opposition who is terrified and wants to [47:12] replace uh the government or is it the [47:14] government who is terrified or [47:15] Netanyahu's supporters who are terrified [47:18] from the option of a Eisenote Arab [47:21] center-left government. [47:25] >> Thank you both so much. Our next [47:28] question is from Pablo Leuen. If [47:30] Netanyahu loses the election, could that [47:33] be viewed as a victory for Hamas, [47:35] Erdogan, Iran, and others who have made [47:37] in the central villain in their [47:38] rhetoric? [47:40] >> That's exactly what Netanyahu's [47:43] uh billboards claim. I think I'll give [47:47] an example. Two days into the war, a [47:51] very marginal figure within Lihood, a [47:54] minister, the propaganda minister was [47:56] stepped down for some reasons because [47:59] she she claimed that she couldn't do [48:00] their job her job. It was perceived in, [48:05] you know, in in in Hamas outlets and and [48:08] Iranian Iranian outlets as as a proof of [48:10] victory because here a senior Israeli [48:12] ministers just stepped down because of [48:14] the attack. So I guess they'll see it as [48:17] a proof that I mean why Nathan was [48:20] defeated because Israelis saw October [48:22] 7th as a failure. So yes, will it change [48:25] something dramatic? It's it's it has [48:27] more to do with the with the future of [48:30] the next uh Israeli government. I would [48:33] like to add a few words here to to the [48:35] answer and and explain that our enemies [48:39] in whichever country in our [48:41] neighborhoods uh use new AI tools and [48:45] other tools almost every single day to [48:49] conduct influence campaigns of different [48:51] nature in order to tarnish Israel's um [48:56] uh global uh setting. Uh and I just want [49:00] to give you an example from yesterday. [49:02] has nothing to do with politics by the [49:04] way, but this will ex exemplify you know [49:07] how well uh these terror groups are [49:09] working in a coordinated way to harm [49:11] Israel's image. So yesterday uh some of [49:14] you maybe have heard that a group of [49:16] students were hiking um in the Galilee [49:19] in the Western Galilee with a teacher [49:22] and unfortunately one of the kids a [49:24] 14year-old [49:26] uh saw some strange piece of metal. [49:30] picked it up. Turned out to be a cluster [49:32] bomb that fired. Never exploded. [49:34] Unfortunately, it exploded. Many were [49:38] wounded and one uh one child was um uh [49:43] was killed unfortunately. But what did [49:47] took this very unfortunate incident and [49:51] turned it to a victory forbala. So they [49:53] created a clip in which they show their [49:56] victory and so they planted AI [49:59] characters which are like Israelis which [50:02] are calling for Nasala in the middle of [50:04] the clip. Nasala Nasallah where are you? [50:07] This was the previous ofah. So these [50:10] kind of campaigns by our enemies um are [50:13] going on almost every single day and I'm [50:17] sure I'm sure whichever the outcome will [50:19] be it will be used as part of uh [50:22] influential campaigns. [50:27] >> Thank you all Lauren. Our next question [50:30] is from David Stein. Can you share a bit [50:33] more about the impact on some of [50:35] Israel's global relationships depending [50:37] on potential outcomes? For example, [50:40] would it change or impact relations with [50:43] the US, Europe, etc. Or if the prime [50:46] minister stays in power but with a [50:48] different coalition, what would that [50:49] mean for those relationships? [50:52] D. [50:53] >> Um, [clears throat] so I think um in [50:58] both cases uh both the United States uh [51:02] especially the Democrat side of the map [51:05] and in many European capitals um just [51:10] replacing Netanyahu will probably change [51:13] the approach. Um, we know what the [51:16] Democratic Party specifically [51:19] um is, you know, has turned Netanyahu uh [51:23] into a scapegoat in many ways. Um, and [51:27] the relationship with the Democratic [51:29] Party under Netanyahu has been under [51:31] constant strain. So, I do think that a [51:33] different government could start or at [51:36] least try and start to mend uh relations [51:40] with the moderate parts of the [51:42] Democratic Party. [51:44] um and also in Europe [51:47] um in the UK [51:50] um in France [51:53] um in Germany um but I do think that [51:57] there's a limit to how much that will [51:59] change um again um since October 7 [52:05] brought the Palestinian and I agree with [52:07] Amit Sega this will be the story of the [52:09] next this will be the story of the next [52:11] term the Palestinian question will be [52:13] the story of the next term. And what we [52:15] are seeing that has already started in [52:18] European capitals that has already [52:19] started in London and Paris and uh um in [52:23] uh the Hague and uh other European [52:26] capitals is a wave of sanctions that a [52:30] different uh that will it will be a I [52:33] think even for a new government it will [52:35] be very difficult to wind the clock back [52:38] and to bring things back to reverse [52:41] processes. Um and in order to reverse [52:44] those processes, the government will [52:47] have to do things that I'm not sure it [52:49] will have political capital to do. Um so [52:53] I think it will change but only to some [52:57] extent. [52:59] >> Absolutely. I I fully agree. I think the [53:02] we're going to have a train wreck [53:03] because the moment in which Israelis [53:07] turned [53:09] dramatically against any idea of [53:12] military or or of of Palestinian [53:15] independence in Judaism and of course [53:17] Gaza 93%ish [53:19] from out of the the Jewish population at [53:22] least is exactly the moment in which the [53:25] international community became way more [53:27] aware and way more supportive of the [53:30] partic Palestinian claim for [53:31] independence [53:33] and there is no way to bridge the gap in [53:36] my opinion uh in the in in the short run [53:39] at least. Uh so I don't know what's [53:41] going to happen in 3 four years time but [53:44] that's exactly the reason why I even if [53:46] Nataniel is defeated and Bente resigns [53:50] and Smriidge steps down still even the [53:54] most so-called leftist coalition in [53:57] Israeli terms doesn't even meet the [54:00] requirements of the most moderate [54:03] democratic leader in in the United [54:05] States for instance [54:07] >> and I just want to add also just I want [54:09] to add one more sentence on that just [54:11] also there's the cultural war that [54:13] Israel is now starring in and whatever [54:16] is happening in Hollywood and in um and [54:19] in the pop world in which Israel and [54:21] Palestine have turned into an issue. A [54:23] new government will not change that. A [54:25] new government especially if it doesn't [54:28] change the policies it will not change [54:30] the global trend and discourse that is [54:34] currently surrounding Israel. um which [54:37] is based much of it is based on a lot on [54:40] anti-semitism and hate and uh distorted [54:43] facts. A new government will not be able [54:45] to change or reverse that trend. Um so I [54:50] think um the challenges in the [54:53] international community everywhere will [54:56] remain um very significant for Israel in [54:59] the upcoming years no matter who who [55:01] leads it. And I just want to very [55:03] briefly say that the other part of the [55:06] answer to this question has to do with [55:08] the major changes that we see in the [55:11] international arena. We see in European [55:13] governments, we see in Latin American [55:15] countries, we see a lot of changes. So [55:18] although Israel has responsibility for [55:20] sure, there are political trends in [55:22] other countries that you know we cannot [55:24] ignore. Lauren. [55:27] >> So for our final question today, what do [55:30] you think is the most misunderstood [55:32] issue regarding the election by Jewish [55:34] Americans and others watching closely? [55:37] >> Say again. [55:39] >> What do you think is the most [55:40] misunderstood issue regarding this [55:43] election by Jewish Americans and others [55:45] watching closely? [55:58] I I'll let you a minute think and and [56:00] I'll tell you what think of a good [56:01] answer. I'll say in one sentence what [56:03] I'm hearing. I'm hearing that um uh if [56:07] Netanyahu will not be elected then [56:10] Israel's place in the Middle East will [56:12] be a lot better. Then our challenges [56:16] will be solved because uh no longer [56:19] persona nonrat in the Middle East like [56:21] Netanyahu will be around. So this is [56:23] what I am hearing Amit. [56:27] >> I think this is exactly the case and [56:30] more than this maybe [56:34] the sentiment of Israelis 3 years post [56:36] October 7th they are willing to take no [56:39] security uh risks whatsoever. [56:43] And uh I guess the the results of the [56:46] election will will actually signal this. [56:49] And [56:51] one more thing that how how tiny Israel [56:53] is in in terms of elector rate. It's [56:56] really a tiny country. Um and uh and [57:00] that's why um very you know the 5,000 [57:06] vote shift can change the entire [57:08] political map. Right. [57:12] >> The most misunderstood thing is just [57:14] like how the system works and that we [57:16] will not know on October 27th and [57:19] probably not on October 28th and maybe [57:21] even not on November 28th who won the [57:24] election. Um so uh I think the most [57:28] misunderstood is that it's really really [57:30] complicated and it's really really [57:32] different from the American system. So, [57:35] um, [57:37] we might need a lot of patience until we [57:39] can actually declare the results of the [57:42] elections and where Israel is going. [57:46] Thank you both, Amit and Tal, for [57:48] helping us look beyond campaign slogans [57:50] to the choices, tensions, and [57:53] possibilities, shaping these elections. [57:56] And thank you for the viewers that were [57:58] here with us. And Lauren, I'm turning it [58:00] back to you. [58:01] >> Thank you so much. I just want to echo [58:03] our thanks to a meet and tall for this [58:04] incredibly timely and in-depth briefing. [58:07] Thank you to our global audience for [58:08] tuning in. To stay up to date on these [58:11] issues and AJC's work around the globe, [58:13] make sure to follow AJC on social media [58:15] at AJC Global. Thank you again and [58:18] goodbye.
