Transcript [00:00] Well, the Israeli elections are today [00:01] and as we know apparently all the [00:04] people, you know, particularly the [00:06] Democratic party want to talk about is [00:07] Israel. [00:08] >> This is a moral roshock test issues. I [00:10] have a I have a lot of issues with how [00:12] BB ultimately conduct the war. I [00:13] personally do. Israel is an unbelievably [00:16] important issue because it is the moral [00:18] crisis of our generation. I believe a [00:21] new election is the only way to allow [00:24] for a healthy and open decision-making [00:27] process about the future of Israel. [00:30] >> I support um Israel. I I cannot support [00:33] this government's actions. They are not [00:35] aligned with US national security uh [00:38] objectives. [00:40] >> Okay, so this is the idiot narrative [00:41] that you've been hearing for a very very [00:43] long time from Democrats. Yeah, Israel's [00:45] but it's BB, right? It's just and they [00:47] need a new election. Okay, so we're [00:48] going to explain everything about this [00:50] election. This is Israel's sixth [00:51] election in 7 years. That's a little bit [00:53] deceptive because this is actually the [00:55] first Israeli government that has lasted [00:57] a full term, meaning 4 years since 1988. [01:00] So typically the way that the government [01:01] works in Israel, it is a parliamentary [01:03] system. So just to explain the basis, [01:05] the basics, there are 120 seats in the [01:08] Israeli parliament, which is called [01:09] Knesset in Hebrew. In order for you to [01:11] have a governing coalition, you must [01:12] have a majority, 61 seats. So that [01:14] doesn't mean that for example, Prime [01:16] Minister Netanyahu's party, the Liquid [01:17] party has 61 seats. It means that his [01:20] party may have 30 seats and then there [01:21] are other parties that ally with him to [01:23] get to 61 seats. Now in the election, [01:26] you know, for a c you do not vote for a [01:28] candidate, you vote for a party. There [01:30] is a minimum cutoff for a party to [01:32] actually have seats in the Knesset. You [01:34] have to have at least four seats, which [01:35] is 3.25% of the vote. So if you vote for [01:37] a party that doesn't reach the cutoff, [01:39] your vote is just discarded. There's a [01:41] little bit of gamesmanship to Israeli [01:43] elections. [01:45] Now, according to Amit Seel, the [01:47] election turnout has been [01:48] extraordinarily high. The highest [01:49] election turnout since 1973. Not a [01:52] shock. It's the first election Israel [01:53] has had in four years. And that includes [01:54] obviously the period since October 7th, [01:57] 2023. [01:58] So, I'm going to explain to you [02:00] everything that's going on and also I'm [02:01] going to explain why everybody who's [02:03] commenting on this but knows nothing [02:04] about Israeli politics is totally full [02:06] of crap. So, there are essentially three [02:08] possibilities in this election. Benjamin [02:10] Netanyahu's party, the Lakood party wins [02:12] the largest number of seats and he is [02:14] asked by the president of Israel. This [02:16] is the way the process works. Isaac [02:18] Herszog to form a coalition. Let's say [02:20] that he and his coalitional partners, [02:23] which would be sort of the right-wing [02:24] parties plus the ultraorththodox, reach [02:26] 61 seats, a majority. Then they form a [02:28] new government. Possibility number two, [02:31] his chief opposition is a former leader [02:33] of the IDF named Gotti Eisenkot. Gotti [02:35] Eisenkot leads a new party called the [02:38] Yashar Party. Gotti Eisenhot is not a [02:40] leftwinger. Gotti Eisenhot would be by [02:42] any normal description center right. [02:45] It's possible that he gets to 61 seats [02:47] with his coalition partners and without [02:49] the Arab parties because the Arab [02:51] parties don't like to join the coalition [02:53] and the Israeli parties don't typically [02:54] like to sit with parties that actually [02:56] don't believe that the state of Israel [02:58] should exist which is one of the [02:59] problems in Israeli politics. You [03:01] basically have the mainstream of Israeli [03:03] politics which is kind of a general [03:06] centerright population and then you have [03:08] two groups in Israeli politics that sort [03:10] of sit outside of that. The Arabs who [03:11] don't serve in the military and many of [03:13] whom don't believe in the existence of [03:15] the state of Israel and then you have [03:17] the karedi parties which also have [03:18] problems with the existence of the [03:20] secular state of Israel and also don't [03:21] serve in the military. So those two are [03:23] kind of the outlier parties. [03:25] The most likely scenario is that neither [03:27] of these groups reaches a majority [03:29] coalition. [03:30] Let's say that none of this h none of no [03:33] majority is formed, right? Lud can't [03:34] form a coalition with 61. Eisen cut with [03:36] Yashar cannot form a coalition with 61. [03:38] So now there are a couple of [03:39] possibilities as to what comes next. One [03:42] would be a minority government led by [03:43] Gadi Eisenut held up by the Arab parties [03:46] from the outside. So the way that a [03:47] government falls in Israel, the way a [03:48] new election is called is there's what's [03:50] called a vote of no confidence. If a [03:52] majority of the parliament votes for a [03:54] new election, there's a new election. So [03:55] what does that mean? It means that let's [03:57] say you have 51 seats and let's say that [04:01] the the Arab parties have 10 seats. [04:04] They're not actually a part of the [04:05] government, but they don't vote to [04:06] topple the government. You could have a [04:08] minority government. That's what we're [04:09] talking about here. Held up by the Arab [04:11] parties from the outside who don't vote [04:13] for a new election. They just sit [04:15] outside the government. Right? That has [04:17] happened before in Israel. [04:19] In Israel, that happened when there was [04:20] a government that was led by Yer Laid [04:22] and Napali Bennett. the Arab parties [04:25] were actually part of the coalition. [04:26] Some of the parties were were not part [04:27] of the coalition, then the government [04:28] fell. So that's possibility number one, [04:31] if no majority is actually found. [04:33] Possibility number two, which is one [04:34] that a lot of people are are hoping for, [04:36] is a unity government that involves both [04:38] Prime Minister Netanyahu and Gotti [04:40] Eisenhut is chief opposition. The way [04:42] that that would work is they agree on a [04:44] rotating prime ministership where [04:45] Netanyahu takes the first couple of [04:46] years of the term, Gotti Eisenhut takes [04:48] the second couple of years of the term. [04:51] Now, there would be a tacit deal. The [04:52] tacid deal there would probably be that [04:54] Netanyahu, who at that point would be [04:56] nearly 80 years old, would kick over [04:58] into the ceremonial president's seat. So [05:00] the president is is currently Isaac [05:02] Kerzog, he's termed out after a couple [05:04] more years. That's kind of a ceremonial [05:06] seat. Basically, you're a spokesperson [05:07] on behalf of the state of Israel. And [05:09] then you have the ability to approve a [05:11] government that is coming in. [05:15] Then the people appeal to you and you [05:16] tell people who gets to first try to [05:18] form a government essentially. So [05:20] Netanyahu could kick there after a [05:21] couple of years and you have a unity [05:23] government that would actually be [05:24] enormous. If a unity government was [05:26] formed, it would probably be everybody [05:27] from Ital's party, which is a a [05:29] right-wing party to the right of of BB's [05:31] Liquid Party, maybe all the way out to [05:34] Yayer Golan on the left. Maybe, maybe [05:36] not, but that is a that is a majority of [05:38] like 80ome seats, not including the [05:41] Kharedim or including the Arabs. So that [05:44] would be an enormous government. A lot [05:45] of people are hoping for that. According [05:46] to the current Cali markets, again there [05:48] are friends and sponsors, the odds of a [05:50] Gotti Eisenot prime ministership have [05:52] been marketkedly declining. Right now, [05:55] top odds remain Gotti Eisenot. 48% of [05:59] the money said it's Gotti Eisenot. 35% [06:02] says no one. 16% says Netanyahu. [06:06] Now again, I think no one is the likely [06:07] answer here. My my guess if I had to [06:09] ballpark this thing, again, it's early. [06:10] I I would say the highest likelihood [06:12] here is interim prime ministership in [06:14] another election. Let's say that no, [06:16] nobody is able to form anything. There's [06:18] not a minority government supported by [06:19] the Arabs. There's not a majority [06:21] government. There's not a unity [06:23] government. There's nothing. All that [06:25] happens that Netanyahu continues the [06:27] caretaker prime minister until there's a [06:29] new election. And this is why you had so [06:31] many elections in a short period of [06:32] time. Remember I told you that there [06:34] were essentially six elections in seven [06:36] years, but there was only one in the [06:38] last four, which means there were five [06:40] in the prior six, right? There were lots [06:43] and lots of elections over and over and [06:44] over because nobody could form a [06:45] majority and Netanyahu just remained as [06:47] the caretaker prime minister for pretty [06:49] much that entire period. So again, [06:51] turnout is extremely high. [06:54] Obviously big rallies. There have been [06:56] big rallies against Netanyahu throughout [06:58] this entire process. Tel Aviv is a [07:00] heavily proiscut area. Jerusalem would [07:02] be a heavily pro Netanyahu area. You can [07:04] see the size of this protest in favor of [07:06] Gaddy Eisenkot. The polls are pretty [07:09] variable right now. [07:11] If you take a look at the channel 12 [07:13] polls, so channel 12 in Israel is is [07:15] would be like CNN of Israel essentially [07:18] and the channel 12 polls show [07:21] Yashar which is E is party at 23, Likud [07:25] at 21, [07:27] Byakad which is a a sort of joint party [07:30] between Natali Bennett and Ya Laid at [07:32] 15, the Democrats which are kind of the [07:34] only left-wing party led by Yura Golan [07:36] at 10, and then you got the Arabs at [07:38] nine, Israel Betenu which is a sort [07:41] hawkish Russian Jewish party at eight. A [07:44] couple of religious parties that each [07:46] have eight and uh and ultimat religious [07:50] Zionism would be would be the Zahood [07:52] party. That would be Smotrich and uh and [07:54] Mosha Fagland. Okay, so more importantly [07:56] for people who don't care about any of [07:57] that, here's what the coalitions would [07:58] look like in that channel 12 news poll. [08:00] This is the last poll taken before the [08:01] election. As you can see, what you would [08:04] end up with if this is what materialized [08:07] is essentially the possibility of a [08:10] minority government with the Arabs [08:12] sitting outside or a unity government, [08:16] right? That that that is the possibility [08:17] here because the pro Netanyahu block [08:20] would be at 50, the anti- Netanyahu [08:22] block would be at 56. Neither one would [08:24] have a majority and essentially the [08:26] anti-Netanyahu block would have to count [08:27] on the Arabs to hold them up from the [08:29] outside. Okay, so that is poll sort of [08:31] number one. Then you have the channel 14 [08:33] poll. So the channel 14 poll shows [08:36] something very different. [08:38] Again, remember according to that [08:40] channel 12 poll, liquid would be at 21. [08:42] According to the channel 14 poll, liquid [08:44] would be at 30. [08:46] So according to this poll, liquid would [08:49] actually be able to form a 62 seat [08:51] block. [08:53] So you think that polls in America are [08:55] skittish? Try polling the public when [08:57] you have no great model of how turnout's [08:59] going to go. When if you drop below four [09:01] seats, you don't even get to be in the [09:03] Knesset in the first place. [09:06] And again, when people are sort of [09:08] trying to figure out whether they're [09:09] going to vote for a fringe party, [09:11] meaning like not all that many seats [09:12] like Zahoot or vote for Lood. [09:15] So basically, nobody knows exactly [09:17] what's going to happen. But here is what [09:18] this election is not about. Here's the [09:20] important part. Okay, number one, this [09:22] election is not about American politics. [09:23] It is not a reflection of of President [09:25] Trump. It is not a reflection really [09:27] even kind of on Netanyahu's policies. In [09:30] every poll, over 80% of Israelis like [09:32] the the United States and approve of it. [09:34] President Trump is wildly popular across [09:36] the board, except maybe among the Arab [09:38] parties and maybe Golan's far-left [09:41] party. Here is what this election is [09:43] also not really about in the end. [09:44] Netanyahu's conduct of the war since [09:46] October 7th that has ultimately been [09:48] successful. Remember, Gotti Eisenhood, [09:50] his chief opponent, was part of the war [09:52] cabinet from October 7th to June 2024. [09:55] On many issues, he's campaigned to [09:57] Netanyahu's right in Lebanon and also on [09:59] Gaza. [10:00] Eisenkot, like BB, wants freedom to [10:03] strike inside Iran. He just doesn't want [10:05] to call explicitly for regime change. [10:06] Netanyahu wants regime change openly. [10:08] But in reality, Eisenut has said that [10:10] regime change in Iran would be great. So [10:11] there really no big major [10:13] differentiations between Eisenkot and [10:15] Netanyahu when it comes to policies with [10:17] regard to Lebanon, Gaza or or Iran. So [10:21] what is actually going on in Israel? [10:23] What's the election about? It's the same [10:25] thing every election has been about [10:26] since like 7 years ago. Anger at [10:28] Netanyahu over a wide variety of issues. [10:31] Netanyahu is a mchavelian player in [10:34] Israeli politics. Half the parties in [10:36] existence in Israel were started by [10:38] one-time allies of Netanyahu who he cut [10:40] off at the knees in order to maintain [10:42] his position which is you know to be [10:44] fair to him kind of what you have to do [10:46] in a parliamentary democracy. So for [10:48] example Gaddy Eisenhau was head of the [10:50] IDF and part of the war cabinet while [10:52] Netanyahu is prime minister. Y laid [10:56] and Napali Bennett's party. Navali [10:57] Bennett was a member of Likood. [11:01] Navali Avidor Lieberman who is the head [11:04] of the Israel Betenu party. Avidor [11:07] Lieberman was a former deputy and [11:08] defense secretary under Netanyahu. [11:12] So again, half the parties in the [11:14] Knesset were started by former allies of [11:17] Netanyahu. [11:19] There have been allegations of [11:20] corruption that that some people are [11:22] very bought into. I think the evidence [11:23] on those is is largely specious. [11:27] And then there is the the biggest issue [11:28] in Israeli politics which remains [11:30] whether the khedim ought to serve. This [11:31] is sort of the biggest issue in Israeli [11:32] politics that drives it so much. So the [11:34] kharedim represent approximately 10% of [11:39] the Israeli population, 10 to 15% of the [11:41] Israeli population and growing. The [11:42] kharedim do not serve in the military. [11:44] They're not drafted. They [11:45] disproportionately take advantage of [11:47] welfare benefits in the state of Israel. [11:50] And the vast majority of the public [11:52] would like for them to serve and also to [11:54] get jobs and not be so dependent on [11:56] welfare. And that has been a hold up [11:58] because a bunch of people who normally [12:00] agree with Netanyahu won't join his [12:02] coalition. So BB has been forced to rely [12:04] on the Kharedim to comprise his [12:06] coalition. And that means that there has [12:08] been no deal on the Kharedim serving. [12:11] So essentially what you have here [12:15] is the two sides that basically agree on [12:18] most policies, right? Eisenhut and and [12:19] Netanyahu just if you looked at their [12:21] platforms are nearly identical. It's [12:23] just that no coalition in Israel can [12:25] form given the personal and political [12:27] divides between the sides. Now there's [12:29] been attempt by the leftwing press in [12:31] Israel and also internationally to lay [12:33] all the problems of Israel's current PR [12:35] situation at the hands of Netanyahu. [12:36] That's cheap and it's stupid. The [12:37] reality is that any longlasting [12:40] significant war to extrapate Hamas in [12:41] the Gaza Strip was going to be met by [12:43] precisely the same allegations of [12:45] genocide, precisely the same lies about [12:47] Israeli activity, precisely the same [12:49] level of [12:51] now. It's true that Netanyahu's [12:53] relationship with Joe Biden wasn't all [12:55] that strong, obviously, and that the [12:57] leftwing press despised Netanyahu. But [12:58] if you think that if Gotti Eisenut or [13:00] Natali Bennett had been prime minister [13:02] during that period, things would have [13:03] been wildly different, that is not true. [13:06] It just isn't. And that is why there are [13:08] a lot of American Jews who have sort of [13:09] convinced themselves that if BB goes, [13:10] then suddenly all of their problems with [13:12] their friends will go away. Wrong. It's [13:14] not going to happen. If you think if you [13:16] believe the lie, oh, Israel's fine, [13:19] they're fine. It's just BB. If you [13:21] believe that lie, then you're having the [13:23] wool pulled over your eyes for a couple [13:24] of months. If Eisenot becomes prime [13:26] minister, then there will be a sort of [13:28] truce in terms of PR, a slight truce. [13:32] And the first time that Gotti Eisenot [13:33] has to take actual action against the [13:35] Iranian government, all that will spring [13:38] right back into place. So again, it is [13:42] it is very easy for Americans to try to [13:44] think that everything is about us. It [13:45] really is not. Brazilian elections, [13:46] believe it or not, not about President [13:47] Trump, not about us. Israeli elections, [13:49] not about us. Hungarian elections, not [13:51] about us. [13:54] Now, it's possible that the Israeli [13:56] public could see Netanyahu overall as [13:58] somebody who has already performed his [14:00] main function. He did a good job with [14:02] the war. He strengthened Israeli [14:03] military dominance, but they're angry at [14:05] him for October 7th and now he's [14:07] basically Batman at the end of the Dark [14:08] Knight, the hero that Gotham deserves, [14:10] but not the one it needs right now. Or [14:11] it's possible that Netanyahu pulls [14:12] another rabbit out of the hat. Or that [14:15] you end up with another interminable [14:17] round of elections just like a few years [14:18] ago that he hands up caretaker prime [14:20] minister or there's a minority [14:21] government and that government falls 5 [14:22] minutes from now. But here is what this [14:24] is not about and this is what the [14:26] leftwing press are going to lie to you [14:27] about. They will lie. If Netanyahu does [14:29] not end up and his coalition do not end [14:31] up in power, it is a lie that the [14:33] Israeli public has turned left. That's [14:36] absurd and it's stupid. Gaddy Eisenhot [14:38] would be the first Safhardi prime [14:40] minister of the state of Israel ever. [14:41] He's a Moroccan extraction. Gotti Icut. [14:44] And for those who don't follow again [14:46] Israeli politics in detail, that means [14:48] that he is gut check a a non-leftwinger. [14:52] His son was killed in the Gaza war. I [14:55] like the the notion that Gotti Eisenhot [14:58] is some sort of far-left Yolan type is a [15:00] lie. And the idea that the Israeli [15:03] public is overall to the left is insane. [15:07] According to the Jewish Public Policy [15:08] Institute polling, they did a poll [15:10] October 2026, 65% of Jewish Israelis [15:14] call themselves politically right, [15:15] openly. That's 24% who say they're [15:18] strongly right, 21% that's right, 99% as [15:21] moderately right-wing, 11% as [15:23] right-leaning centrists. Only 10% [15:26] identify as exactly in the center. And [15:28] only 22% say that they're on the left. [15:31] 22% say they're on the left. So don't [15:33] listen to the pundits on CNN who don't [15:35] know what they're talking about. They [15:37] pretend to know or the New York Times. [15:38] They literally know nothing. Don't [15:39] listen to Thomas Freiedman. Don't listen [15:41] to all the oped writers who once rode in [15:44] a taxi cab. They don't know anything. [15:46] Less than nothing actually. In many [15:47] cases, what they know is just wrong. [15:50] What an amazing video you just watched. [15:52] Wasn't that amazing? Well, you know, if [15:54] you think so, head on over to [15:55] dailywware.com/subscribe to watch the [15:57] full show ad free or check out this [15:58] crazy story here.
