Transcript [00:00] On Tuesday, Israel goes to the polls. [00:01] And if you've been following the news [00:03] for the last few months, you know [00:04] there's only one question on everyone's [00:06] mind. Who is going to be the next prime [00:09] minister? You see, for Israel, the fact [00:11] that you get the most votes doesn't [00:13] automatically make you the new leader. [00:15] So, what does Well, to understand this, [00:18] you need to start with how Israel [00:20] creates a government because it works [00:22] really differently from America or from [00:23] the UK. Israelis don't actually vote for [00:26] a prime minister at all or for one of [00:27] two major parties. They do vote for a [00:30] party. However, there are many parties [00:32] and the 120 seats in Israel's [00:35] parliament, the Knesset, are dividing up [00:37] according to each party's share of the [00:38] vote as long as that party passes a [00:40] minimum of 3.25% of the vote, which [00:42] works out to be about four seats. Any [00:45] party that falls below that line gets [00:46] nothing and every vote it receives goes [00:48] to waste. But to govern, you need a [00:50] majority of the parliament, which is at [00:53] least 61 seats. Think of it like a [00:55] sports team. You might have a bunch of [00:57] amazing players, but if you can't put [00:59] together a team, then there's no way [01:01] that you're passing. So, how do you [01:03] actually get to that number if in the [01:05] entire history of the state, no single [01:07] party has ever won 61 seats on its own? [01:09] Well, you need to bunch together a few [01:11] of the smaller parties until you get [01:12] enough to have more than half. That [01:14] means every government Israel has ever [01:16] built has been built on a coalition, a [01:19] group of parties that agree to rule [01:20] together. And the prime minister is [01:22] essentially whoever can negotiate and [01:24] then hold that group together. After the [01:27] vote is calculated, the president, which [01:28] is different to the prime minister, [01:30] meets with every party that has made it [01:32] in, has passed the threshold, and asks [01:34] each of them a simple question. Who do [01:36] you recommend to form the next [01:38] government? He then gives the job to [01:39] whoever has the best chances of actually [01:41] pulling it off, and that isn't [01:43] automatically the leader of the biggest [01:44] party, but normally is. That person then [01:47] gets 28 days to build a coalition with a [01:50] possible two-e extension. And if they [01:52] fail, the job can pass to someone else. [01:54] And if nobody manages to actually create [01:56] this coalition, Israel then goes back to [01:59] new elections. Until a new government is [02:00] sworn in, the current prime minister [02:02] stays in office and keeps running the [02:04] country. But without a totally normal [02:06] government in place. And so whilst he [02:08] stays in power, there are still things [02:10] he's limited in what he can do. Building [02:12] this coalition might sound simple on [02:14] paper because everybody wants to be in [02:16] power, but in practice, it's actually [02:18] one of the hardest jobs in Israeli [02:20] politics and maybe in the world. In [02:21] America, being a Republican or a [02:23] Democrat roughly tells you where someone [02:25] stands on most issues. But Israel has no [02:28] single left right line. Instead, voters [02:30] and parties take separate positions on a [02:32] whole list of questions. security, [02:35] religion and state, the economy, the [02:36] Palestinian question, Judea and Samaria, [02:38] drafting the ultraorththodox, gay [02:40] rights, Iran, and now in the first [02:42] election since October 7th, how the war [02:44] has been run. And if you want to trust [02:46] the old leadership with continuing it, a [02:49] party can be super hawkish on security, [02:51] but secular and liberal on social [02:53] issues, and so it may refuse to sit with [02:56] religious parties that agree with it on, [02:57] let's say, Iran, but clash with it on [03:00] the draft or on gay rights. It's a [03:02] massive hodgepodge. And it's really [03:05] really complicated to actually get [03:07] people to agree on certain things. Every [03:10] potential partner agrees with you on [03:12] some things and is your opponent on [03:14] other. And that is why putting together [03:15] 61 seats gets messy so quickly. So the [03:18] real question in every Israeli election [03:20] is not just which party is going to have [03:23] the most seats in the vote or which [03:25] party is going to pass the threshold, [03:27] but which leader of a party can then [03:29] negotiate to get to over 61. And [03:31] obviously the more the marrier, but this [03:34] year the answer comes down to something [03:35] that I call kind of following the red [03:37] lines. You see, every party has made [03:39] promises about who it will and won't sit [03:41] with. And when you lay those promises [03:43] side by side, you get the real map of [03:45] this election of what might actually [03:47] happen in the next month. It is based on [03:49] the promises that parties decide that [03:51] they will keep no matter what or that [03:52] they will have to break that a coalition [03:54] can be built. And this is something that [03:56] Israel has been through very recently. [03:58] In April 2019, Netona's camp of [04:01] right-wing and religious parties won [04:02] enough seats to govern on paper. But [04:04] then the head of Israel Betenu, a [04:07] secular right-wing party, refused to [04:09] join because he wanted a law drafting [04:11] ultraorththodox men into the army and [04:12] the ultraorththodox parties refused to [04:14] accept it. Netanyao couldn't get to 61. [04:17] And so the Knesset dissolved itself and [04:18] sent the country back to polls. That [04:21] September, the result was another [04:23] deadlock. And in March 2020, a third [04:25] election and another deadlock. That one [04:27] only broke when the opposition leader at [04:29] the time, Benny Gance, a former army [04:30] chief who had campaigned for a year on a [04:33] promise to never sit under Netanyahu [04:34] joined Netanyahu's government in the [04:36] middle of the COVID crisis on a deal [04:38] that he would take over as prime [04:39] minister halfway through. But that [04:41] government fell apart within months over [04:43] the budget and the handover never [04:45] happened. Gunce, by the way, who dropped [04:47] out of this round of elections after he [04:49] was pulled too low to pass the threshold [04:50] needed and didn't want to waste votes, [04:52] will be remembered by some as a traitor [04:54] for sitting with Netanyahu despite his [04:56] promises to never do so, but by others [04:58] as the man who not once but twice put [05:01] his positions aside to do what was [05:02] needed for the country. He also did it [05:04] again after October 7th, joined into the [05:06] government to make it bigger because the [05:08] bigger the majority, the easier it is to [05:10] pass laws. He paid the ultimate price by [05:13] crashing in the polls and he's now [05:15] basically out of politics and has lost [05:17] his voter base. But he did that for the [05:19] country and this is going to be an [05:21] important backbone to our current story [05:24] because in March 2021, Israel then held [05:26] its fourth elections in two years and [05:28] the result was kind of shocking to many. [05:30] Napali Bennett, whose party had won just [05:32] seven seats, became prime minister at [05:35] the head of eight parties stretching [05:37] from the right all the way to the left. [05:38] This coalition included Ram, an Arab [05:40] party which made it the first [05:41] independent Arab party in decades to [05:43] join an Israeli government. And when I [05:45] say this was problematic for his [05:47] right-wing voter base, it was [05:49] problematic. So, how did this happen? [05:51] Well, because as we said, to become [05:53] prime minister, it's actually not about [05:54] having the most seats. It's about [05:56] whoever has the ability to build a [05:58] coalition, which Bennett succeeded in [06:00] doing. But this too came at a price. [06:02] Bennett was strongly right-wing and in [06:04] Israel to your voter base, there is no [06:06] bigger act of betrayal that a party can [06:07] do than to decide to sit with either the [06:09] left or the Arab parties if you are on [06:12] the right. And vice versa, by the way, [06:14] if you're leftwing and you decide to sit [06:16] with a right-wing candidate, as we saw [06:18] with guns, that is an enormous enormous [06:21] no. And this is kind of heartbreaking [06:23] and sad because it is this sort of [06:24] hatred towards the other sides that [06:27] causes a lot of the political conflicts [06:28] that you see in Israel. But there's not [06:30] much we can do about that right now. [06:32] Bennett had signed a pledge on live [06:34] television during the campaign that he [06:35] wouldn't make Y laid the face at the [06:38] time of the left as a prime minister in [06:39] the rotation and he ended up doing [06:41] exactly that. And he also told voters he [06:44] wouldn't build a government that [06:44] depended on Ram. And he did that too. [06:47] And to be fair, it had reached a point [06:48] where it was impossible to form a party [06:50] without the Arab parties at the time. [06:52] But because of their support for [06:53] Palestine and some of the unbelievably [06:55] anti-Israel statements that some of [06:57] their representatives had said at the [06:58] time, it didn't make it any easier for [07:00] the voters to swallow. You see, Bennett [07:02] crossed just too many red lines. He [07:04] broke too many campaign promises, and [07:06] his trust eroded. The government that he [07:09] created lasted only about a year, but [07:10] his voter base never forgave him for [07:12] what they saw as an act of betrayal that [07:14] is absolutely unforgivable. And to this [07:17] day, he hasn't managed to get that voter [07:19] base back. He now takes voters more from [07:22] the center left. All this ended when his [07:24] government failed in November 2022. Then [07:26] Netona came back into power with 64 [07:29] seats and formed a right-wing government [07:31] that led Israel through the war of [07:33] October 7th. Through both of these [07:35] stories, notice how every single one of [07:37] the deadlocks broke the same way when [07:39] somebody crossed a line they had sworn [07:41] they would never cross through their [07:43] campaign promises. And in Israeli [07:45] politics, this is important to know. Red [07:47] lines have a very funny way of turning [07:49] pink after election day. And I'd go as [07:51] far as to say that to succeed in Israeli [07:53] politics and join a coalition, there is [07:55] basically no way to do so without [07:57] breaking one of your election promises. [07:59] The question is always going to be which [08:00] one you can break with the least amount [08:02] of blowback from your voters. But just [08:04] to kind of set the tone, think about the [08:06] lack of trust that creates between a [08:07] voter and the politicians in Israel. [08:09] They know that from the get-go, whoever [08:12] they vote for is probably lying to them [08:14] about something. It's just a gamble on [08:16] what they're lying for and if that's [08:17] going to go against their morals and [08:20] that's just not a great way to begin. [08:22] But that brings us back to present day. [08:24] This is the first election since October [08:26] 7th. And in what comes as a surprise to [08:27] almost everyone, the government actually [08:29] survived the full term, full four years [08:32] during one of the most contentious times [08:35] in Israel's history. So what does the [08:36] political landscape look like right now? [08:38] Well, there are two main camps I would [08:40] say. On one side you have the Netanyao [08:42] block which is basically similar to the [08:43] outgoing government. It's his party lur [08:46] which is mainstream center right the two [08:48] ultraorththodox parties which are shas [08:50] and united Torah Judaism and the [08:52] religious Zionist party and Yodit led by [08:55] Bengir the party of the national [08:57] security minister. It's fair to say that [08:59] this party leans very very very right in [09:02] some areas but is actually quite [09:04] centrist as a whole. And now, whilst I'm [09:06] not a big believer in polls, because as [09:07] I like to say, I've never met anybody [09:09] who actually answers polls. This camp is [09:12] currently landing somewhere between 48 [09:15] to 55 seats. The friendlier polls push [09:18] it to the higher 50s, but that is still [09:21] not 61. And on the other side, you have [09:24] the opposition, which is led this time [09:26] by Gadi Eisenot, a former army chief of [09:28] staff whose son was killed in Gaza, [09:29] whose nephew was too, and whose new [09:31] party Ashar is polling is the largest in [09:33] the country. just a seat or two ahead of [09:35] liquid, kind of similar to Netanyahu's [09:38] party. Next to him, you also have [09:40] Bennett, who we recently talked about [09:42] and who has joined forces with Laid in a [09:44] party called Together, plus Israel [09:46] Betenu, which is a secular right-wing [09:48] party, and a very left-wing Democrat [09:52] party. These four together landed [09:54] somewhere between 50 to 55 seats in the [09:57] final polls, and they come as almost a [09:59] done deal. They call themselves the [10:01] party of change and are fighting hard to [10:03] create an image of four leaders on the [10:05] left who are working hard to bring [10:07] Netanyahu down. Then there are the Arab [10:10] parties which together are polling at [10:12] about 14 seats. Three of them run [10:14] together as a joint list and the fourth [10:15] is Ram running alone because internal [10:18] Arab politics is actually very very [10:20] intense and they don't always get along [10:22] despite the fact that Israeli media [10:24] likes to kind of block them into one [10:25] thing. And now finally, what I would [10:27] like to call the potential surprise of [10:29] the election. There are a bunch of [10:30] parties sitting right on the edge of the [10:32] threshold. You have a party built by [10:34] reservist. You have a party built by a [10:36] guy called winter and you have a new [10:38] competition to the ultraorththodox [10:40] parties called [10:42] which some polls have at about four [10:44] seats and others have at zero. These are [10:47] all parties that are looking to bring [10:49] new blood into the political world. And [10:52] honestly, it's not just a big gamble. [10:54] It's something that is very very [10:56] worrisome to the bigger parties because [10:59] they would be taking seats from them [11:02] directly which means not just less [11:04] leverage from them in negotiations but [11:06] also more competition. Right now [11:08] according to the polls there is [11:10] basically no way to know if they will [11:12] totally make it into the government or [11:14] if they're not even going to pass [11:15] remotely. And this is something that not [11:17] only are bigger parties like Likood and [11:20] Shas using like telling people don't [11:23] vote for them because you might waste [11:25] your vote, but also could really change [11:28] the entire landscape because if a whole [11:30] bunch of smaller right-wing parties come [11:32] in, then who knows, maybe Netanyahu has [11:35] a block, but I'm getting ahead of [11:36] myself. In addition to all of these, you [11:38] also have a whole bunch of small [11:39] parties, new parties that are trying to [11:41] take their shot in becoming the new [11:43] blood, but basically have no chance of [11:46] passing. If you add it all up, you'll [11:48] notice that if you need 61 to make a [11:51] government, the math doesn't work. [11:52] Netanyahu's camp doesn't reach 61, and [11:55] neither does Eisenot. And now, here's [11:57] something that most people don't know. [11:58] To actually take office, a new [12:00] government doesn't really need 61 votes. [12:03] It only needs more votes than whoever is [12:05] against it in the Knesset and anyone who [12:07] abstains simply doesn't count. And this [12:09] is where you might see a very [12:11] interesting situation happen where the [12:13] Arab parties come in. They really want [12:15] Netanyahu out of power. But because [12:17] Eisenot's partners have refused to bring [12:20] them into the government, then the joint [12:22] list wouldn't openly vote for a Zionist [12:24] government anyway. So abstaining for [12:26] them might be the middle ground. They [12:28] help remove Netanyahu, but they don't [12:29] endorse anyone. And Eisen got says gets [12:32] to say that he isn't relying on them. [12:34] But that only really works if Eisenot's [12:36] camp is bigger than Netanyao's. If [12:38] Netanyahu's camp is bigger, the Arab [12:40] party sitting on their hands isn't [12:41] enough. They'd have to actually raise [12:42] their hands for Eisenot. And so on [12:44] Tuesday night, it matters not only [12:46] whether someone reaches 61, but which [12:48] camp is bigger? But let's say with this [12:51] shortcut of the Arab parties deciding to [12:53] abstain and allowing for Isizakott to [12:55] get into power, it's not actually just [12:58] easy and clearcut through because every [13:00] single option of a possible government [13:03] runs into the reality that they are [13:05] going to have to break a promise to some [13:07] of their voters. So instead of asking [13:09] who's most likely to win, the better way [13:12] to actually figure out what might happen [13:14] is to see which lines are most likely to [13:16] be crossed. Rather than going through [13:18] every issue and where each party stands, [13:20] let's focus on the three questions some [13:22] parties treat as an absolute no no. And [13:24] those are will you draft the ultra [13:26] orthodox, will you rely on the Arab [13:28] parties? And will you sit with Netanyao? [13:31] Every party has answered at least one of [13:33] those with a flat no, and every possible [13:35] government needs somebody to change an [13:37] answer. So let's go through the ways [13:39] Tuesday night can end and look at which [13:40] promise stands on the way of each one. [13:43] The five ways this end begins with path [13:45] one. Netanyao's camp gets 61. The polls [13:48] say that this is highly unlikely, but [13:50] they have been wrong before. It could [13:52] happen if Netanyahu's voters turn out in [13:54] bigger numbers or if a smaller [13:56] opposition party just misses the [13:58] threshold and its votes go to waste. If [14:00] he does get there, his government would [14:02] be stable because his partners kind of [14:04] have nowhere else to go. The [14:06] ultraorththodox parties are angry that [14:07] he never passed their draft exemption [14:09] and like to make threats, but the other [14:11] candidates are promising to draft them. [14:13] So Netanyahu is still really their only [14:15] option. The same goes for Benvir and the [14:17] far right. There is no way that they are [14:19] going to be sitting with the far left. [14:21] The problem with this government is the [14:22] same problem that we had with the [14:24] previous government, which is that the [14:25] draft fight that broke his last [14:27] government would still be waiting for [14:28] him at a time when reservists have been [14:30] serving months and years since October [14:33] 7th. And so this issue continues to be [14:35] contentious and unresolved. Let's go to [14:38] path two in which Eisenot's scam gets to [14:40] 61. This is the cleanest result for the [14:43] opposition. A government with no [14:44] Netanyahu, no ultraorththodox parties, [14:46] and no Benvrir. It is also the least [14:48] likely. In the final polls, his four [14:50] parties are somewhere between 51 and 55 [14:53] seats. And even if the small parties [14:55] break his way at the threshold, very, [14:57] very, very few polls get him even close. [15:00] So, let's move to where the real fight [15:02] is because par three, nobody gets to 61, [15:06] but Eisenot's camp is bigger. What [15:08] happens in this situation? Well, it's a [15:10] minority government led by Eisenkot. As [15:12] we mentioned before, if the Arab parties [15:14] do abstain, his bigger camp outvotes [15:16] Netanyahu and he becomes prime minister [15:17] without a single Arab party joining his [15:19] government. Eisenot has already said he [15:21] would try to form a government even [15:23] without 61. But for that to happen, two [15:25] things need to be true. First, the Arab [15:27] parties have to agree to sit on their [15:29] hands and abstain. And they probably [15:31] will because they want the meow out. But [15:33] it won't be for free. This is massively [15:36] problematic. The joint list is offered [15:38] to be a safety net for any government [15:39] that removes Netanyahu, but the price is [15:42] they want guarantees of a path to [15:43] Palestinian statehood, opposition to [15:45] settlements, and a plan to fight crime [15:47] in Arab towns. Something that a lot of [15:49] people are abroad with. By the way, Ram, [15:51] the more pragmatic party, has offered a [15:53] safety net of its own. These are all [15:54] things that during the current conflict [15:55] are in many ways unthinkable to the [15:57] voters who, although more left-leaning, [16:00] learned a hard lesson on October 7th and [16:01] are not very forgiving. A Palestinian [16:03] state is seen as a reward for what Kamas [16:06] did. And since so many of the leftwing [16:07] voters are voting for Isagot because of [16:09] their anger at Netanyahu, who under his [16:12] watch all of this tragedy happened, this [16:14] is a very very strong no politically. In [16:16] addition, Eisenkot's own partners would [16:18] have to agree to govern that way. And [16:20] that's the real problem. Lieberman has [16:22] ruled out any minority government, even [16:24] a temporary one. He says he won't back a [16:26] government that depends on the Arab [16:27] parties and insists that the opposition [16:28] should win a real Zionist majority [16:30] instead. Bennett has ruled out relying [16:32] on the Arab parties at all. And without [16:33] those two, Eisenot wouldn't have the [16:35] numbers for sure. The only partner [16:37] openly pushing it in the other direction [16:38] is Yar Golan of the left-wing Democrats [16:41] who says he wants Ram in the government. [16:43] So inside Eisenot's own camp, one [16:45] partner is okay with the Arab parties, [16:47] but the others are vetoing them. And so [16:50] this is something that Netanyahu's [16:51] campaign has spent weeks repeating. [16:53] Eisenhot has no government without Ram. [16:56] And you better all remember that he [16:57] would have to sit with the Arab parties. [17:00] All of that is cute. It's actually not [17:02] really important because remember, even [17:05] if a minority government does take [17:07] office, it wouldn't work properly as a [17:10] government. Getting sworn in is only one [17:12] vote that needs a huge amount of [17:14] negotiations. But running the country [17:16] demands hundreds of votes. And every [17:19] law, every state budget has to pass the [17:22] same way with a majority. So on any [17:24] given day, the Arab parties could vote, [17:26] let's say, with the opposition's camp [17:28] and block whatever they don't like. This [17:30] means that although technically you have [17:32] a government, you don't have a very [17:33] functional government. And so it's not a [17:35] good solution. If a government can't [17:37] pass a budget, the Knesset dissolves [17:39] automatically and the country goes back [17:40] to polls. In practice, the by the Arab [17:42] parties abstaining, which might sound [17:45] nicer to the voters, they'd actually [17:47] have much more of a say over everything [17:49] he tried to do after that. And that [17:51] would not work for most of the Israelis. [17:54] And like, let me be very clear on what I [17:56] think about this. A government that [17:58] survives only because the anti-ionist [18:00] parties choose not to topple it lives at [18:02] their mercy. And the joint list has [18:03] already told us its price. Israel is at [18:05] war with Iran and its proxies and the [18:07] next government says faces some of the [18:08] hardest security decisions in our [18:10] history. Nobody should be making those [18:12] decisions out of fear of the government [18:13] collapsing, but rather they need to do [18:15] that from a position of strength and [18:17] this is definitely not that. I just want [18:18] to add a little caveat about Arabs in [18:21] the elections in Israeli democracy. Of [18:23] course, it makes sense that if you have [18:24] two million of them, they should have [18:26] representation in the government and no [18:28] Israelis are actually opposed to that. [18:29] The problem is the people that they [18:30] choose for these positions, many of whom [18:33] are actually deeply anti-Israel. And if [18:35] you do a little bit of a deep dive into [18:36] that, this becomes a very, very, very [18:39] big problem. And it is actually the main [18:40] reason that most parties don't want to [18:42] sit with our parties. It's not just [18:44] blatant racism that they're not [18:46] interested in admitting that these [18:48] people have a part in democracy. No, [18:49] it's not that. It's that the people they [18:51] would be bringing into their coalition [18:53] have really, really problematic stances [18:55] about Israel and about our security. And [18:58] that's just not a kind of coalition that [18:59] you want to build. Now, since we're [19:01] talking about what could potentially [19:02] happen with Eisenot as a minority, but [19:05] still the biggest party, there is [19:07] another option here, but it is extremely [19:09] far-fetched, yet it's still a [19:11] possibility, and it is that the [19:13] ultraorththodox parties decide to leave [19:15] Netanyahu and join Eisenot, meaning [19:18] leave the right and join the left. If [19:20] Eisenot somehow managed to find a draft [19:23] arrangement that the ultraorththodox [19:24] parties could live with and they decided [19:27] to recommend him as prime minister to [19:29] the president, the numbers would change [19:31] overnight and he would win by landslide. [19:33] The problem is that his whole campaign [19:36] or the majority of it and Bennett and [19:38] Lieberman's his partners is built on [19:40] drafting the ultraorththodox with [19:42] basically no exceptions. So a deal like [19:44] this would mean both sides crossing [19:45] their biggest red lines at the same [19:47] time. And if Netanyahu, who was seen as [19:50] way more supportive of the Orthodox [19:52] parties, failed, Eisenot succeeding is [19:54] almost impossible. But the Orthodox [19:57] parties have threatened it, seeing as [19:58] they have less of a strong position on [20:00] topics such as security. They don't [20:02] really care about the left right thing [20:03] as much and their main focus is on their [20:06] religious rights, which is their be all [20:07] and end all. So if in some universe that [20:11] happened, maybe they would join forces. [20:13] Again, I see this as almost impossible [20:15] as the entire campaign of the left has [20:17] been built on two main things. Full [20:18] draft of the Orthodox and no Netanyahu. [20:21] Which brings us to option number four. [20:23] In this path, the fourth one, nobody [20:25] gets to 61 seats, but Netanyao's camp is [20:28] bigger. And ironically, this is the [20:30] option that makes the most sense, but [20:32] it's the one that almost everyone has [20:34] ruled out. It would be a unity [20:35] government between Eisenkot and [20:37] Netanyao. If you ask me, of all the [20:39] options, it's the best one for Israel. [20:41] You see, Yashar and Likood, Nitanya and [20:44] Eizenot's parties are much closer on the [20:47] big issues than the campaign makes them [20:49] sound. And a government built around the [20:51] two biggest parties wouldn't have to [20:53] depend on the more extreme groups on [20:55] either side. They would talk to the [20:57] center of the country and that would [21:00] possibly work. It's also an option that [21:02] if we're being kind of politically [21:03] incorrect, both men have a lot of [21:05] reasons to want, even if they won't [21:06] admit it. For Netanyahu, it's a way of [21:08] to stay in power without being [21:10] beholdened to the demands of Bener or [21:12] the ultraorththodox parties, which is [21:14] exactly why Bener keeps warning that [21:16] Netanyahu secretly wants it. And for [21:18] Isakott, it's one of the few ways to [21:20] build a government that doesn't actually [21:21] depend on the Arab parties and that [21:24] could actually last. So, how would it [21:25] work? Well, most certainly is a [21:27] rotation. One of them serves as prime [21:28] minister for the first half of the term [21:30] for about two years and the other takes [21:32] over for the next one. Whilst it makes [21:34] sense because they basically speak to [21:36] the same voter base, this would be a [21:38] huge political sacrifice from Eisenhot. [21:41] If you're remembering Gans or Bennett in [21:43] the past, this is the quickest way to [21:45] tank his voter base. He has said very [21:48] clearly that he won't serve under [21:49] Netanyahu under any circumstances, even [21:52] in a rotation, and that he'd resign [21:53] within an hour if it happened. Lieberman [21:56] is already attacking him for it, [21:57] accusing him of quietly planning exactly [21:59] stealing and calling him a guns number [22:02] two. And that's kind of the real fear [22:04] for Eisenkot. Guns joined Netanyahu on [22:06] the promise of a rotation and never got [22:08] his turn. So even if the two men sat [22:09] down together, the fight over who goes [22:11] first would be the whole negotiation and [22:13] whichever camp is bigger after Tuesday [22:15] would walk in with a stronger hand. The [22:18] sad thing about this is that this is [22:20] kind of the most obvious way forward. [22:23] Most Israelis keep telling pollsters [22:24] they'd much rather have a unity [22:26] government than another election. And in [22:28] every one of the last deadlocks, someone [22:30] eventually broke down and blinked. So [22:32] why not just cut through the chase and [22:33] do it to begin with? And this is where [22:35] you see proof of how the media is often [22:37] Israel's worst enemy because the media [22:40] has created such a deep and deep deep [22:42] hatred of Netanyahu that the left are [22:45] absolutely blind on being able to see [22:47] that maybe this would make more sense. [22:49] Remove the far right. Remove the far [22:51] left. Take this unity block. Move us [22:53] into a time where you don't actually [22:55] only have 61. you potentially have even [22:57] more which creates stability for [22:59] everyone in a time that we need so much [23:01] stability. But again, this is something [23:03] that is going to mean that Isizakott has [23:05] to let down his voters because this is [23:07] what he platformed on. The only way [23:10] though that Eisenot would be able to [23:11] pull this off is if he got Netanyahu to [23:14] commit to leaving politics after his [23:15] turn forever. He could then look his [23:18] audience in the eye and say, "Yes, we [23:20] did have to keep him for two more years, [23:21] but that was a price well worth paying [23:23] to remove him forever." Now, the chances [23:26] of Netanyahu agreeing to this are very [23:28] small because I think that man wants to [23:30] be in politics for a very long time. But [23:32] a little bird has told me that he is [23:34] eyeing the presidency as his next move, [23:36] which happens to coincide with the end [23:38] of the 2-year. So, you never know. Maybe [23:42] maybe this could work. And honestly, [23:44] this would just be so ideal. It would [23:46] solve so many issues. But and so, [23:48] talking about issues, let's talk about [23:50] path number five. This is the one that [23:52] everyone's pretending can't happen [23:53] because they just don't want to deal [23:55] with it. But it is highly possible. [23:56] Nobody gets the majority. Nobody crosses [23:58] the line. The clock runs out and Israel [24:00] now goes to its second round of [24:02] elections and starts the same deadlock [24:04] we experienced four years ago. There are [24:06] so many different things at stake here [24:08] because just the stability of the [24:09] country during a very contentious time. [24:11] Remember, Iran is watching closely and [24:13] it and it was lack of unity and multiple [24:15] elections that led up to the October 7th [24:18] attack. And in addition, you have the [24:20] American factor as well with public [24:22] opinion being very poor in Israel. And [24:24] there's a divide on whether Netanyahu [24:25] staying in place and keeping up this [24:27] buddy buddy thing with Trump will be [24:28] good or if new blood will be better for [24:30] Israel's reputation. Trump has now [24:32] endorsed Netanyahu twice. So it's clear [24:34] what he thinks. But don't forget that [24:36] the next government will also be dealing [24:37] with whoever comes after and laying the [24:39] groundwork. That now is essential. So [24:43] who can actually form Israel's next [24:44] government? Well, now you know. Based on [24:46] every poll we have, nobody can do it [24:48] without somebody breaking a promise they [24:49] made to their voters. Netanyao needs [24:51] about 10 seats he doesn't have. Eisenot [24:53] needs either the Arab party, the or the [24:55] ultraorththodox, both of which his own [24:57] parties have ruled out. Unless, of [24:59] course, we go to a unity government. [25:00] Therefore, on election night, you can [25:02] ignore the headlines about who finished [25:04] first, but watch for four other things [25:06] which are more important. Number one, [25:08] whether either camp gets close to 61. [25:10] Number two, which camp is bigger because [25:12] that tells you whether Eisenkot get can [25:14] get in with the Arab parties just [25:15] sitting on their hands or whether he [25:16] needs them to vote for him. Number [25:18] three, whether any of the small parties [25:19] pass a threshold. And I believe we're [25:21] going to have quite a few surprises [25:22] here. And number four, what each party [25:25] says the next morning about the red [25:27] lines it drew. The first party to kind [25:29] of change its tune is the one who's [25:31] going to tell you how this ends. The [25:33] fact that you get the results in the [25:35] next few days doesn't mean that this is [25:37] over. And honestly, it may not be over [25:39] for months. Coalition talks over the [25:40] last election took 58 days and that was [25:43] with a clear winner. This time there's [25:45] no clear winner in sight and every [25:46] possible government comes with a price [25:48] that someone swore they would never pay. [25:50] And so what I can tell you is this. 3 [25:52] years after one of the worst days in [25:53] Israel's modern history after wars on [25:55] more fronts than anyone can count, [25:57] Israelis are going to line up on Tuesday [25:58] and vote, argue, campaign and fight it [26:01] out with a ballot box the way a real [26:02] democracy does. Whilst the countries [26:04] around us are going to settle these [26:06] questions with tanks in the streets. The [26:08] irony of this entire system is that [26:10] whilst the world considers Israel a [26:11] dictatorship, its voting system is [26:13] almost too democratic. And because the [26:15] divide of opinions all have [26:16] representation, it makes the governing [26:18] so much harder. There's a lot riding on [26:21] this beyond the coalition math. Israel [26:23] is choosing a government in the middle [26:24] of a war and Iran is watching. And many [26:26] Israelis believe that the years of [26:27] division and back-to-back elections [26:28] before October 7th made Israel look weak [26:31] to its enemies. And nobody wants to send [26:33] that signal again. But regardless of all [26:35] that, whoever ends up forming the next [26:37] government, I have just one main hope [26:39] for them. That instead of focusing on [26:41] the power that they gain, I pray they [26:43] remember who they're serving. The [26:45] soldiers who have given years of their [26:46] lives since October 7th, the families [26:48] who are still grieving, the country that [26:50] has proven again and again that it could [26:52] come through anything. And so, if you're [26:54] in Israel, go vote. And as you already [26:57] know, we'll be back here after the [26:58] elections to see which red lines are [27:01] about to bend. I'm Eric K and I'll see [27:03] you next
