Transcript [00:00] Fighting a group like the Houthis, who [00:01] are a bit like the Taliban, especially [00:04] on their territory, is extremely [00:06] difficult. I mean, I don't think any [00:08] army can effectively defeat them. [00:10] >> Saudi Arabia has one of the Middle [00:11] East's largest militaries, and it just [00:14] doesn't appear to be very powerful in [00:16] the face of the Houthis. [00:17] >> So, the question is really why is it [00:19] that the Saudis can't effectively defend [00:21] themselves? And it's not that their [00:22] military is not powerful. I mean, there [00:24] are aspects or elements of their [00:25] military that are very powerful. Their [00:27] air force, for instance, is quite good [00:29] now, and not least because they've [00:30] gotten a lot of training and experience [00:32] in the war in Yemen since 2015. I think [00:35] that there are several reasons why the [00:36] Saudis can't effectively defend the [00:38] kingdom on their own. So, first, it's a [00:41] very large country, right? It's larger [00:42] than than Western Europe, and it's kind [00:44] of the third of the continental United [00:46] States. So, you know, everything east of [00:48] the Mississippi. So, that that's a very [00:50] big territory. It has only about 20 [00:52] million native population. So, not a [00:54] large population for a very large [00:56] territory. And also, the military was [00:58] built around a war that was much more [01:01] conventional like that of Iraq's [01:03] invasion of Kuwait in 1990. So, their [01:05] kit is not exactly appropriate for this [01:08] kind of warfare with drones and [01:10] ballistic missiles. Although, having [01:11] said that, their abilities to to block [01:13] drones has become very good, and part of [01:15] their effectiveness against drones has [01:17] been to jerry-rig their pipelines and [01:19] their refineries with nets and [01:21] scaffolding and the wire mesh, which [01:24] blocks the drones, but not the ballistic [01:26] missiles. So, there's that. So, the the [01:27] military isn't properly equipped and [01:29] trained. There's also the fact that in [01:31] the 1950s and '60s, the Saudi military [01:33] was deliberately kept weak to coup-proof [01:36] the regime against a military coup. And [01:39] then, after that, you had different [01:41] princes in charge of different branches [01:43] of the military, and there was no [01:45] coordination between them in terms of [01:47] procurement, in terms of [01:48] interoperability. So, there's a long [01:50] legacy of a military that's not well [01:53] coordinated, well institutionalized, in [01:55] which merit counts for promotion rather [01:58] than loyalty. So, all of that legacy [02:01] there's a lot of path dependence to use [02:03] academic language. I mean, there's a lot [02:04] of decisions that were taken in the [02:05] '50s, '60s, and '70s that have led to a [02:08] military that's not super effective. And [02:10] MBS, the Crown Prince, is sort of have [02:12] having to deal with all of that and try [02:14] having to undo all of that. I don't [02:15] think it's cultural, by the way, because [02:17] the Saudis have an incredibly well-run [02:20] oil company, in fact, probably one of [02:21] the best run in the world. So, it's a [02:23] question of having the right incentives, [02:25] the right institutions in place, which [02:27] they don't have and they're desperately [02:29] trying to build. I mean, and lastly, I [02:30] would say that, you know, fighting a [02:32] group like the Houthis, who are a bit [02:34] like the Taliban, especially on their [02:36] territory, is extremely difficult. I [02:38] mean, I don't think any army can [02:40] effectively defeat them. Yemen is sort [02:43] of like Afghanistan, the graveyard of [02:44] empires. The Ottomans tried to conquer [02:47] Yemen twice. The first time in the 16th [02:50] and 17th centuries and second time 19th [02:52] century. And then the Egyptians tried to [02:54] do the same by entering the civil war in [02:56] the 1960s. And then in both cases, or in [02:58] all three cases, actually, the Ottomans [03:00] and the Egyptians were defeated by the [03:02] Yemenis and never were able to fully [03:04] control and master the terrain.
Saudi Arabia has one of the Middle East's largest militaries, yet it struggles against the Houthis. Bernard Haykel of Princeton University explains why: a vast territory with a small population, equipment built for conventional war, a military kept weak in the 1950s and 1960s to coup-proof the regime, and Yemen's history as a graveyard of empires. From The MEF Podcast.
Watch the full episode, "Saudi Arabia at War" with Bernard Haykel: https://youtu.be/ATZtkhxzBi0
Bernard Haykel is Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University.
Views expressed are the guest's own.
Middle East Forum: https://www.meforum.org
